Recent commitment of traders data show near RECORD $ long positions, it stand to reason this is going to be rectified AT SOME POINT. Gold longs have eased as well and EURO shorts busting out.....not a reccomendation, this is the setup.....you can see the MACD has crossed here, so some US $ weakness may be upon us.
Most stock indexes now sitting on or just above their 50 EMA's, and we have OPEX FRIDAY on tap......I think the major move of current rally is spent for the ST.
ONE THING ABSENT THIS SUPPOSED BREAKOUT IN STOCKS IS AGAIN VOLUME
Another factor aiding recent rebound was low reading of AAII bulls, now just correcting. It didn't take but 5 weeks to crush the frothy 54% Bull reading....which fell to around 24% has risen back to around 34%.
We may be in a primary up move from MArch LOWS, but there are MANY firsts in this one which confirm to me the larger degree trend is still the SECULAR BEAR.
Everyone gets giddy about the manufacturing data that has come out but the GROSS majority of the perceived positive data was INVENTORY....quite extroadinary. But when looking further all you see is WEAKNESS in what matters......shipments,backlog of orders, new orders....again we can use the term "less weak" so for that we call it improving.
NAHB tracks housing data, and we are STILL STUCK in the lower worst readings ever produced by this indicator.
Think of the PUTRID malaise the housing sector is facing and this is with tons of stimulus and gov assistance and RECORD low rates at its back.......
Some very smart people may be right and the bull move from MArch is still intact....but it seems to me, it is an outlier in performance and its end will not possibly come with tons of advance notice for all to rubn for exits....JMHO
Duratek
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