I will try to leave a nice post SAT, that will have to hold you til I get back on the 15th of July.
I'm not saying the market isn't going to rally at some point, even Monday....nothing but a CRASH is a straight line. But folks, this market doesn't look, doesn't fell right....it's trying to send a message to anyone who will listen.
If you're a regular reader you know I was warning back in April and last few weeks even louder some trouble was a brewing and I was getting more and more bear market signals.....even now I'll leave door open but barely a scant slither of light is leaking through.
Problem with banks was bad mortgages, the values plunging from face value....threatening a world financial meltdown...so what was solution?Look the other way, pretend it wasn't happeneing and allow banks to value the paper themselves.....banks are given NO REASON to lend why the f save them??????????????? so they could pay out LAVISH BONUSES on profits that didn't exist? or based on TRADING SMOKE FILLED ROOMS RUN ON COMPUTER PROGRAMS THAT GAME THE LITTLE GUY AND USE FED MONEY?
Are we back to square one again in this damn game where we get healthy by allowing banks etc to game the market hoping the dvance fuels an economic recovery?
WTF?!!!!!!!!!!! That's like treating cancer with massive doses of radiation and nothing else like back in the Gulag Archipeligo.....writen about in the book TO BUILD A CASTLE.....treating the patient the same way as decades ago....and it doesn't work, and it isn't working.
(HEY...this post is growing longer than I anticipated, and maybe....all I need to leave you with til I get back we'll see)
Now, when the market began its rally back in March of 2009, even less worse was heralded as improvment and the market rallied on the thinnest of premises.....and on S and P 500 earnings MOSTLY fueled by make believe financial earnings.
Castles made of sand....slip into the sea, eventually.
Now the bloom has fallen off the rose like it was sprayed with RAID and plant-be-gone. And so any rally is hard to take hold leaving the market open to panic selling.....IMHO surely oversold can lead to rally....but if NO UPLIFTING NEWS of real economic turn around.....it will be sold into.
WHO is watching their gains from MArch 2009 whither away? WHO is watching Alcoa back under $10 again? WHO feels comfortable "letting it ride?"
ALL the while the minions cramming into bonds and bond funds.....and at some point, boy that is really worrisome should THAT be the mutha of all bubbles and she bursts....sending rates skyrocketing and bond holders prinicpal bleeding like an eboli victim.
There's my sugar coat. Niece has 30th Bday tonight place called BLOBS PARK....lots of micro beers offered. If ever in B'more must go to Brewers Art Charles Street and order their RESURRECTION MICRO BEER (7% )
I wish everyone best 4th Of July, Love the country, hate the politicians and gamers who give a hoot about the little people...and pray for the return to a FREE MKT SYSTEM....if you f up...go off and die.....we pays our medicine as we go and let the free mkt dictate rates and where risk should go.
Duratek
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Best to you and your family, markets getting ready to show the truth of its motives, good luck!
If Jesse Livermore were alive today and was looking at the weekly Renko charts for inverse etf's DXD, SDS, QID, MZZ, SJF, SEF and others, I think he would consider this to be a perfect pivot point entry.
I know Lowry is still calling this a correction in a primary bull market however I see they were just as adamant and wrong in the first and second quarter in 2009.
My primary question now is will there be one more rally up into August.
With the atrocious economics, tax increases, unemployment, loomin Israel/Iran conflict and no better times on the horizon my god given common sense will not allow me to classify the equity markets a primary bull. The only bull I see in equity markets and government days is bullshit.
The Livermore method would be to divide the trading capital into 4 equal parts and begin scalling into the short position.
Have a great fourth of July and feel free to share your thoughts on going short vs going long vs staying on the sidelines. Your readers are interseted in you point of view.
Even venerable Richard Russell does not short the markets, left to the few pros who can manage risk and time it properly.
I would have been SHORT from the April high as it hit an important FIB of the entire decline from 2007 highs to the rally high and used that as stop loss. My work computer has been infected, so I decided to leave the market be....long you know I have NOT been.
Russel has gone on to say by not being long as the market falls you are shorting sort of as when you do buy you will get great discount.
"those who lose the least, win" because in a bear market "we all lose"
AT APril highs, sentiment and other indicators were near their highs, but not so now.
We would need to find price range where market rally should be thwarted and lay in there.
Declines in bull markets are buying opps, rallies in bear mkts opp to short....in this format I cannot give specific advice for obvious reasons to most degrees.
I noticed VZ did not fall FRI and yields 6.8%....but if decline picks up pace, price may fall and you lose there, but have yield to help lessen blow. My point is why buy a stock that doesn't at least do that? 6% or higher BIG IF dividend is safe.
I am not saying don't lay in some shorts but don't forget to compile and monitor list of companies you want to own at much lower bargain prices should they arrive....not good to only look one way.
Haven't read Lowry's weekend yet.
Thanks for best wishes to my family.
Yes, should one day I decide THIS is what I want to do full time, I would be reccomending specific action to take.....I could nor anyone ever take RR's place, in his mid 80's and recovering from surgery now.....but his kind of dedication and caring, and style of communicating I appreciate.
No 1 person can be right every time. MY methods and observations have proven spot on for catching the Bear Markets.....and I have been working to be able to see the bulls beginning to.....in 2009 I had signals but did not rely on them....my own experience in biz made me more cautious of risk....but I did see opportunity....yields and sentiment 2 major keys.
SO surely if we are not in primary uptrend as some contend, this decline will continue to take prices down and at some point will leave NO HESITATION with sellers....and almost ANY technical analysis....the 200 EMA if FLAT....when I see it turn DOWN.....ANY rally back to KNOWN area of RESISTANCE would be mu choice to lay in opposing positions.
That ONE DAY 1,000 point day is in back of my mind as the outlier of danger to ANY POSITION,the fact that before that day 99% of time a stop loss would protect you....what if it didn't and the action went against you?
The idea here is to PROTECT AGAINST THE BIG HIT!!!! you cannot make up for the BIG HIT....no matter what direction....
Can PPT, GOV, FED, CADRE pull one more rabbit out of their asses?
Bear Markets want to maul anyone and everyone they can.....just be careful, survive....avoid BIG HIT..don't swing for fences....hope this helps..
Remember mkt is oversold, market so far cannot rally....emboldening bears maybe...price has already made big move down....in here I would be cautious getting TOO aggressive that way.....I had thought AFTER price falls LOW enough....the SPX 1040 break many were watching MIGHT be area price would come back to (are there any GAPS around there to be filled?) and SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...and nothing fundamental get us happy....maybe there I would be lurking for my shot...just my 2 cents....mkt could collpase too....volume light now...so yup Im wary
Weekend Noland always good read....and are we headed for more Soverign defaults? then kaboom
Post a Comment