Sunday, August 22, 2010

DEFLATION.....YOU ARE NOT MY FRIEND, CAN'T Happen HERE?


Some MONSTER RALLIES...but in the end for 20 years the SECULAR TREND was deflating asset prices, to this day Japan has NOT been able to escape velocity the dog of deflation biting its ass. The images are eerily similar, though most experts say it wont happen here, its different this time...and we have RESERVE CURRENCY.
I can't stress enough the need to be LIQUID and OUT OF DEBT during these tough economic times. I don't want bonds at these prices, even if I have NO alternative. At some point the bond market will EXPLODE and so many crammed in there for saefty and yield, but 2.5% for 10 years to me is like NOTHING, I'll take my chances staying liquid.
REcord need to finace debt PLUS record LOWS On yield, has me worried of a bond bull trap......certainly yields can go even lower before they POP!
Stay thirsty my friend, stay liquid, be on guard. Most indexes have fallen back below their 50 and 200 MA'S.....23 90% volume days since APril, majority were downers, sorry that doesn't sound like any BUll Mkt I want anything to do with.
Duratek

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Completely agree. "Return of investment" will be more important than "return on investment"! Perhaps gold may do well for some more time as countries crash and burn. Ireland is the canary?

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2010/08/ireland-first-piig-to-break-down.html

Greek spreads are back up. Oh yeah I forgot. EU stress tests were passed and all banks are fine. AAA. Pass the kool aid please!

Although if we breach the march lows may give a buying oppurtunity that you can unload after the next "stimulus". Then wait for next low. Its not going to be easy to trade this market. The universally despised dollar will surprise many for years to come and maybe the bonds will to assuming the Americans start saving when they finally realise they have been duped.It will not be easy as Americans trust the media and not blogs like yours!

Marc R said...

Was Tonto really gay? Take mask off the market and you really see a crumbling mess