4 MONTH TRADING RANGE, 25 90% volume days since April 13 down, 12 up. bears calling out the "bear crosses", bulls saying mkt still up 75% from lows this is consolidation to go higher....some OK data, some not so OK data....and here comes Sept/Oct statistically worst time of year for stocks historically.
SO.....are we consolidating and BULL is testing long holders on their conviction, or are we weakening and a nasty decline and maybe another bear market is just around bend? confusion reigns.
Measures of selling in the market have weakened since March 2009 lows and buyers have ruled....but volume has been absent, volume you would expect from a Bull mkt, but most of the gains are intact.....VIX appears dormant at 22 ish.....but not dead.
Much money thrown at the crisis, stabilization in some areas seems accomplished, others little progress.....is the stock market trying to tell us better days lie ahead? OR has all the money just held us at this level...and its all temporary?
Conflicting information, a range bound market and what is reported as news can give conflicting opinions and paint a picture not in focus, or distorted from the truth.
AFTER ALL THE BAD NEWS, a RECESSION that appears to just go on and on, lousy job numbers.....is the worst over and should one GET long if not or hold if already in.....?
2 answers....YES if you believe that the market is saying...better times ahead, when everyone knows good times are here, prices already march much higher......what if selling pressure erupts out of the blue and we find out this was a trap?
I may have not made things any clearer, but that's where we are.....we might muddle along until FINALLY things get better.....or at some point faith will be lost and no measure of comfort found.....that the FED nor GOV can change the outcome.....aren't we near all they could do?
I'll follow with some charts
D
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment