Friday, September 03, 2010

WHAT KIND OF MARKET IS THIS?


It is not unusual for bull mkts to go through periods of decline and consolidation....this may be one of those periods...so be open minded...about the action.
The 26 90% days have never before been seen in a 5 month period of a market.....and the small majority of them have been down volume days.....now that's NOT characteristic of a bull mkt.
I don't know if any top is in, I feel confident this is a cyclical bull in a secular bear andwhen any gov or fed fairy dust is seen as at an end or not influencing the economy.....deflating values will be the trend.
They did seem to pull out all the plugs, that is worrisome to me, as hasnt the kitchen sink been thrown in, and SO many data points are recessionary....the pulling on a string theory.
Just before bubble popped in 2000, the illusion any internet company could make money had not vaporized, the GLUT of cables and tech stuff not understood....until it was too late....intense selling didnt appear until well into 2001-2002....market can be, is very trickey....fooling most.
INto 2003 the FED policies did ignite the housing industry and debt exploded....much of it bad...tainted....so the 2003-2007 BULL was an illusion a lie....sick growth that grew debt to historic proportions.....we got ways to go to sort it all out....what gets ignited now?..why is GDP shrinking 3 straight qtrs? why is unemployment still high at 9.6%? not much is as it seems....
D

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