"There have been 34 cyclical bull markets since 1900, not including the current bull. The median gain has been 69.1 percent over 614 days equating to an annualized gain of 36.8 percent." (from seeking alpha) average duration could be as much as 3 years.....so for what its worth....we aren't dealing with anything ordinary here.....but anything is posisble.....I would await TA to conclude the Secular downtrend has returned....far from doing that at this point.....but a few things a including Tobin's Q ratio are moving into that column. EVERY LONG TERM (Secular) Bear ended with single digit PE ratios and 6% avg dividend yields....the bottom in 2002/3 or 2009 wasnt even close. This rally is fueled by cost cutting, inventory rebuild and a FED policy gone wild.
Good research here
WE are currently (approximately) 575 days since March 2009 and gains off the lows of around 80%.
SECULAR BEARS can last from 8 to 20 years in length.
IS a bottom in of March of 2009? good chance of that, but since the public is sitting this one out.....jury is out. IMHO that bottom never got tested....I will post a long term chart soon.
D
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