One of my most "trusted" subs has shown to be very accurate in predicting market direction. That is because it is based on shares supply and demand, and not the news, demand for shares has moved back into the dominant position. Until sellers re-emerge and trend, there is little chance of the Bear MKT beginning again.
Rare are bull mkts with more than one 10% correction, we already had a 16% correction last summer, so if you agree, any stock weakness in the new year could be a buy the dip moment and rid yourself of any poor performing issues.
Now, from a fundamental standpoint, none of this may make any sense to you. But the Federal Reserve has positioned SHORT TERM interest rates at 0%, and to you that means near 0 return on safe investments, in particular MONEY MARKET ACCTS.
The current rally is running on fumes, and getting VERY SELECTIVE, so IMHO we are setup for some kind of weakness in January.
COULD Business use their cash horde and begin to invest, spurring job growth? YES, of course they "COULD" but will they? WHAT is the inducement to invest here?
"The company said the plant, which will be built in Tianjin, China, will supply customers in China and Asia with engines in the 3500 series and be the third Caterpillar facility to make that series.
The 3500 series is made in Lafayette, Ind., and at a facility in India. The new plant, which will begin operations in 2013, will not affect operations at those plants, said Caterpillar spokesman Jim Dugan.
“This new plant will support the growing demand for our large engines in China and all of Asia. It’s a capacity expansion,” Dugan said.
The new $300 million plant will be Caterpillar’s largest engine facility to date in Asia Pacific, the company said."
Nice $300M investment, a shame it's not here! Current policies and trade imbalances favor Asian growth over Domestic.
ANother prediction I read said the US $ will surge against the YEN and EURO next year, saying it's worse over there, our economy will outperform theirs.
Midcap stocks and technology have outperformed. Gas may be heading to $4 gallon, Interest rates will rise.
I would expect unemployment claims to continue to recede, after all there have been SO MANY ALREADY LET GO, what we want to see if job growth, to this point the damage of lost jobs has already been done.
Here is justice in America from the crisis. story on Mazilo CEO of Coutrywide. $100's of millions pilfered, I believe a settlement around $75 M was reached, letting hm KEEP the BULK of his gains. "without admitting any wrong doing......" his mugshot above.
We already know what's wrong with economy, so rehashing it doesn't make for increased volatility.
TOPS are difficult to predict in real time, only after the fact. Telegraphed is the support shown for stocks, alternatives are few is any.
Maybe they bought some more time, and if in time things don't get worse, the stock market continues only game in town, that's exactly what they wanted. But they cannot keep charade up forever, and we know the real back bone of any sustainable economy is savings and investment a trend we will be watching closely and for what form any weakness takes when it comes....and it's coming in the new year, you can almost bet on it
D
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