Tuesday, January 11, 2011

CHOPPY ACTION and LIFE SUPPORT




30 minute chart shows off action well. Dull market I stay away from. Market churning here with fewer stocks participating in rally, there are divergences and many other reasons to be on watch for the start of some more serious selling due anytime.


I don't know what will spark it, and it may not be END of rally, but I smell something coming this way. NO DOUBT money not in market at this point, wants in at lower prices.


Bullishness suggests frothy action with not too many worried about protecting profits.....so I am not personally committing any new funds long here, though if market comes back enough I would reconisder.


3rd and 4th quarter could be turning point as majority of stimulus and liquidity would have waned by then....this is NOT beginning of another Secular move IMHO.....I would like to be wrong this time folks.


When you look at gov't eforts, additional deficit spending on top of what was already committed, and expansion of FED balance sheet, there is the crux of the matter......this rebound is not ORGANIC but ARTIFICIAL.....and it is not open ended.
FED funds at 0% for 2 years, no talk of raising interest rates controlled by FED (what they charge BANKS for money). If we had a REAL REVIVAL rates would be going UP, like every other recovery.
FED pays banks for their excess reserves......this policy gives banks reason NOT to lend.
Savers are severely punished by getting next to NOTHING in interest, NO incentive to give banks deposits. Has ground work been laid to build a sustainable lasting fair market economy?
NO

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