Saturday, July 09, 2011

MORE COMMENTS ON POSSIBLE MEGAPHONE TOPPING PATTERN

 I spotted this pattern on my monthly chart. ALL too often traders disregard Monthly or longer term trends. I could not find another period where a RECESSION (BEAR MKT) low as was case in 2002/3 was cleared by the next Recession LOW (BEAR BOTTOM) certainly not on this chart back to 1982. There were NO divergences at the lower low bottom, this leads me to believe we are STILL in a Secular Bear market, however enjoying the rally from CYCLICAL BULL. A higher high is certainly possible, but from here on out it would be a GOOD INVESTMENT idea not to fall asleep.

The "easy" money has been made, business cycle has peaked, ECRI index (well respected) predicts 2nd half weakness, NOT sustainable economy as almost every economist and CNBC guest predicts and implies. There is NO proof of much more than the stock mkt is about only game in town for returns as FED fixes rates at 0%.


Corporation are now MORE indebted than 5 years ago! how? Borrowing money to buy STOCK to make earnings appear better, NOT used to grow or expand business or hire new employees. We are experiencing the weakest stats from any Recessionary bottom, and at some point the musical chairs will stop. 2009 was a GREAT buying opp, there really isn't much sign of sellers picking up their game, as Lowry's stats point out. So, the trend is up until it isn't, when it isn't might be the selling opp of the decade.

Cheap 2012 puts may be in order. HF and program trading now mass majority of shares traded...IMHO the voting mech of mkt is broken and even so, the mkt is at best short term indicator

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