Wednesday, July 06, 2011

"NEXT WORSE FINANCIAL CRISIS"

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113069/financial-crisis-marketwatch?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
5. Stocks are skyrocketing again. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has now doubled from the March 2009 lows. Isn't that good news? Well, yes, up to a point. Admittedly, a lot of it is just from debasement of the dollar (when the greenback goes down, Wall Street goes up, and vice versa). And we forget there were huge rallies on Wall Street during the bear markets of the 1930s and the 1970s, as there were in Japan in the 1990s. But the market boom, targeted especially toward the riskiest and junkiest stocks, raises risks. It leaves investors less room for positive surprises and much more room for disappointment. And stocks are not cheap. The dividend yield on the S&P is just 2%. According to one long-term measure — "Tobin's q," which compares share prices with the replacement cost of company assets — shares are now about 70% above average valuations. Furthermore, we have an aging population of Baby Boomers who still own a lot of stocks, and who are going to be selling as they near retirement.

Out of TZA, that didn't work, its set up....just wont trigger as yet. EXTEND and PRETEND continues, bulls see no worries.

IT and LT trend IS up still, I do not see another huge rally leg, but we are not falling off cliff either.....it would seem to me best to continue being defensive...and Im not sure that means bonds!
STock are priced BEYOND PERFECTION, and who is going to tell you the party is over? I hope to

Gold rockin and rolling today, correction seems near, but not today

Duratek

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