Sunday, October 07, 2012


Are the Gloomers wrong as a recent comment left suggests? I never suggest TIMING the market, the trend for stock may still be UP, but I have been warning of underlying problems both fundamental and technical.

Currently the world markets are in the GRIP of FED and ECB actions, there is nothing subtle about it, they have taken away the vail of secrecy and have laid their cards on the table. The MAJOR players like PIMCO and large hedge funds are buying up SPanish bonds and all kinds of "risky" assets, in defiance to the underlying issues, as in as near a guarantee as they can muster, both FED and ECB say buy we got your back.

Speculation is being telegraphed, supported, almost guaranteed in an effort to avoid IMPLOSION. It will, has worked for awhile, but I don't think this will be open ended.....manipulation always comes with unintended consequences.

ECRI has said we are in a Recession, that economic data suggests a firm slowing down of economies.

There is a year long NON CONFIRMATION DOW THEORY in place, the Transports have not since 2011 confirmed the new highs in the Dow and SPX. As Tim Wood recently pointed out in an essay published on SafeHaven, Dow Theory Non CONFIRMATIONS are WARNINGS OF TROUBLE AHEAD, NOT TIMING TOOLS FOR SPECULATION.

Did I say trouble was brewing 6 months ago? probably so. And it IS, IMHO. That doesn't mean the market will crash a day later.

IMHO we are further apart from the actual economic reality compared to stock valuations. WHEN markets are manipulated this will happen. But for EVERY BUBBLE.....there comes a POP....and when they BURST it usually gets ugly, that I want to avoid.

This is a dangerous game of musical chairs we are playing...



Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Wood and Mr. Doom
you have been constantly bearish with your misinterpretation of Dow Theory.
May I highlight your head line comments in past years

August 2007

I cannot find justification to say that the Primary Trend, in accordance
to the Dow theory, has turned bearish.
Note: Market participants were selling to sitting ducks

JULY 2009

In the wake of the price action seen this past week I have received
numerous emails asking if this means a “New Bull Market” has begun. The answer
is, No!

January 2010

I continue to believe that in spite of the now 11 month rally this is
nonetheless a counter-trend advance within the context of a much longer-term
secular bear market.

February 2011

On July 23, 2009 the primary trend, in accordance to
classical Dow theory, was confirmed as bullish


Wait a minute Mr. Wood, didn’t you say in 2010 this is
only a counter rally. Misleading your readers constantly!

September 21, 2011

the evidence suggests that once the rally out of the 2009
low has run its course, the Phase II decline should prove to be far more
devastating than the Phase I decline. Therefore, from a longer-term
perspective I remain very bearish.

November 6, 2011


the primary trend turned bearish in accordance with Dow Theory

January 2012

From a Dow theory perspective, the primary bearish trend
change that occurred in August in conjunction with the decline into the October
low remains intact.

May 2012

I continue to believe that the rally out of the March 2009
low is a bear market rally
Really Mr. Wood, I did not know that bear market rallies of 3 years do exist. I thought the term bear market rally implies to shorter time frame rallies within a bear market. Perhaps you have notice that we are in a cyclical bull market.

Sincerely Bulls for Truth Biatches

Marc R said...

Cyclical bulls run in Secular bear and cyclical bears run in Secular bulls....all to keep the most guessing.

If you dont want to miss either you just stay in and takes your chances....