Thursday, March 21, 2013


This was generated on March 6th, and by itself is not proof of a top. What this does show is the EXTREME ALL IN SENTIMENT being generated as we are making new highs in the market.

While other data suggests a strong market internal, IMHO it would be prudent to be cautious going forward with new allocations until some froth is removed. Current advance I think is around 4 months old. Would it be the "pause that refreshes"? Could be, many obviously think so.

Wrap your head around this thought. Those who prefer safety for safety sake or because of their age, in retirement, cannot or do not want to take on risk.....these have been FORCED into risky assets, stocks, because of continued FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY.

The idea is to create a wealth effect loop, where rising stock prices beget home purchases, beget rising home values, beget consumer confidence, beget job creation, which in turns feeds the loop and back again. PROBLEM SOLVED!

Balance sheet of FED has grown from $800 B to near $4 T in last 5 years....they make this up as they go along, they have NO exit plan.

The companies in the SPX will see there first qtr of falling ro flat profits since this Bull began I believe. FDX warned and missed their profit target. We will keep close eye on the Transports going forward.

Then there is this, unsettling to say the least.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Rising margin debt is short related also!! ALOT of shorts on margin now, which is accounting for a majority of margin debt.