Tuesday, March 05, 2013


I take no pleasure on being pessimistic on the underpinnigns of the whole house of cards, but I am happy to see those who STUCK IT OUT have regained ALL that had been lost in the near depression of 2009, pretty amazing.

Chances are you don't make that kind of BOTTOM without lots of the little guys jumping out and who knows if they ever came back, though they tend to come back near the highs.

As stocks have closed at (let me say again) NEW ALL TIME HIGHS , here are 2 stats you might find perlexing

2007  27 M on food stamps
2013  47 M on food stamps

2007 7.5 M unemployed
2013  12.5 M unemployed

And I cannot find anyone other than robert prechter (bearish longer than me! haaa) that doesn't think stocks are at EARLY stages of a GREAT BULL MARKET!!!

To those who never waver, or worry, or avg in month after month....none of any of this will really matter, the wild swings and bull and bear tops and bottoms always occur from extremes in emotion greed and fear and back again.

These can be short term or cyclical (3-5 years) or secular (15-20 years like move from 1974-2000)

The bigger question is, are we in a LONG TERM BULL or are we still stuck (or have we ever been in) a Secular Bear market? Though it may sound crazy, that is possible.

The economy has plenty of slack, so I can see the room for optimism it can get better.
They say 2.5-3% growth is all we need to create more jobs, profits will rise, so might stocks.

Below I'm going to show you the mother of all SECULAR BULL MARKETS....10 year treasuries....price is up, yields is down, since before 1980.

AM I the ONLY one that think the direction of stocks over this same time frame and again today has also been UP and now at new highs.

ALL BULL MKTS END....30 PLUS years of FALLING YIELDS....bears watching

1 comment:

John Kelly said...

I am short bonds. Good post