Tuesday, September 06, 2005

ONE SIDED CONVERSATION

Watchdog warns of global energy crisis

"Peak Oil" "Energy Crisis" and 10's of new titles blaring the new theme, "we're running out of oil". And you also see 100's of taglines "high energy prices causing inflation" or variation thereof.

What you don't read is a word about potential DEFLATION! Think about it, is the threat to our economy a lack of goods to buy?

Are too few homes for sale? Cars? Stuff at WalMart? NO! we have an overcapacity issue, not a shortage of goods to sell.

But when going out to buy, after paying more for gas, health care and tuition, you have LESS to spend on consumption, leading to "too few $$$ chasing too many goods", is that why last month the savings rate fell to its LOWEST record ever since it was tracked? a NEGATIVE value?

At the same time we have an energy crisis? addt'l RESERVE OIL is coming onto market, with higher prices isn't it possible demand will fall as consumers adjust their driving habbits? at the same time we have reports of highest bullish opinions towards energy in some cases 10 to 16 years?

Such a crowded play, don'T count me in. MANY investors are showing gains only dreamed of, and from what I hear, have NO reason to TAKE their paper profits.

The action of gold and silver IMHO do not back up idea of runaway inflation but speak volumes of another outcome.

Duratek

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