Friday, May 29, 2009

FRI AM MARKET OUTLOOK "ZOMBIE NATION"

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf CHART of one view of money base. you can see what has been done in the name of prop job or revival attempts.

The US $$ has PLUNGED below 80.00 again, and I think this time it doesn't bounce back and is one reason GOLD is SOARING back to near its alltime highs.

New Home sales from briefing.com

New home sales for April didn't live up to expectations as they checked in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 units (consensus 360,000). April sales were up 0.3% from the March level, which was revised lower to 351,000 from 356,000, but were down 34% year-over-year.

On a regional basis, sales were flat month-to-month in the Northeast and Midwest, up 1.9% in the South, and down -3.8% in the West. The median sales price increased 3.7% from March to $209,700, yet that was still 14.9% below the median sales price in April 2008.
The inventory of unsold homes continued to get worked down as it stood at 297,000 units versus 310,000 units in March. Factoring for the current sales pace, that left the supply of unsold homes at 10.1 months versus 10.6 months in March.

The new home sales report for April fits in with the view that things are stabilizing. The three-month average for January-March was 347,000. Still, it is a sobering reminder that new home sales are a long, long way from being considered robust. To that point, they were running at an annual rate of 887,000 in April 2007.

*Stabilizing and getting better.....job losses and jobs created are 2 very different animals.

For NO apparent reason one of my salespeople had his credit card RATE go UP......above 22% apr.

GDP is adjusted todat at 8:30 http://briefing.com/Investor/Index.htm go to Calendar...sub economic to get details if interested.

from this months contraryinvestor please follow link a super read.

"Maybe more than any other headline credit market indicator of the moment we believe Fed actions have distorted what used to be the prior “risk based” message of LIBOR. And that cuts right to the conceptual heart of government intervention. Just how the heck can the private sector assess risk and allocate capital correctly and efficiently when the Fed/Treasury/Administration is acting to help “misprice” assets and risk measures?

In our eyes, there will be no true recovery in the economy and capital markets until risk is being priced appropriately and all risks are known (the issue of transparency). Make no mistake about it, the decline in LIBOR is not a result of credit market healing and the lessening of risk perceptions. It’s a result of the Fed TAF. And so once again, how do they step away from this intervention?"

"The following chart comes to us directly from our wonderful friends at the Fed. Looking at the Fed balance sheet, they now own close to 15% of total US commercial paper outstanding. You can see that commercial paper outstanding in all categories continues to contract. This is not a picture of a recovering or vibrant credit market. Not by a long shot."

My friends, I am not on this blog to share things to perk you up, I mean if I SEE good things I will report them, it is NOT in my nature to always be so DOUR! What I am doing is telling it like it IS. And if not too late trying to protect you from disaster. Those with me since I began may appreciate this.

The FED is PROPPING up the market, we are a ZOMBIE NATION.

Duratek

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