EVERY major end to THE BEAR and SEEDS of economic recovery in the past (I am aware of) has been with the ability to GOOSE,JUMP START AND GROW CREDIT EXPANSION......is it different this time?
The ability to do so has been SO impaired, what we have witnessed from 660 SPX has been short covering....I mean the little guy has been short cicuited or unemployed.
401K contributions and wall street bonuses have been decimated. Ability to draw value from your home near eliminated.
Tightening credit standards have excluded MANY from new money.
Credit cards are chock full.
Mark to mkt end has only put a vail over REAL MKT VALUE.
ALt A loans not in mix nor talked about in MEDIA. Commercial loan defaults JUST beginning their turn at ugly cycle putting MORE stress on banks.
Consumer sentiment may have risen with rally, but it IS coming from lowest point in history.
Stock Market has never proven it knows anything. The economy began to weaken in 1998 yet mkt highs were in 2000.
It is ALL about credit/debt expansion to what 350% of GDP total credit market debt (290% in 1930) in the past when this has POPPED it RETURNS US to MEDIAN trend.....what is current TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT? I think still over 300%.
If not THE bottom, what kind of bottom? DID THE SPX PE's OR DIV yields reach levels seen at prior MAJOR CYCLE BOTTOMS? NO
ALL BOTTOMS GET TESTED? usually....dont ya think this one will? 2nd MOUSE here if enterring with more gusto will be unltimate winner.
NO QUESTION...my thinking was failed and masked by my own BIZ experience of despair....had I had only game face on.....SNDK at $5 HNI at $7 DOW and friends under $10 were NO BRAINER TRADES. UYG near $1 a no brainer. There is BIG talk of recovery...I ask you why then UYG under April highs, but supported by 50 EMA and do I see another wedge?
The ability to do so has been SO impaired, what we have witnessed from 660 SPX has been short covering....I mean the little guy has been short cicuited or unemployed.
401K contributions and wall street bonuses have been decimated. Ability to draw value from your home near eliminated.
Tightening credit standards have excluded MANY from new money.
Credit cards are chock full.
Mark to mkt end has only put a vail over REAL MKT VALUE.
ALt A loans not in mix nor talked about in MEDIA. Commercial loan defaults JUST beginning their turn at ugly cycle putting MORE stress on banks.
Consumer sentiment may have risen with rally, but it IS coming from lowest point in history.
Stock Market has never proven it knows anything. The economy began to weaken in 1998 yet mkt highs were in 2000.
It is ALL about credit/debt expansion to what 350% of GDP total credit market debt (290% in 1930) in the past when this has POPPED it RETURNS US to MEDIAN trend.....what is current TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT? I think still over 300%.
If not THE bottom, what kind of bottom? DID THE SPX PE's OR DIV yields reach levels seen at prior MAJOR CYCLE BOTTOMS? NO
ALL BOTTOMS GET TESTED? usually....dont ya think this one will? 2nd MOUSE here if enterring with more gusto will be unltimate winner.
NO QUESTION...my thinking was failed and masked by my own BIZ experience of despair....had I had only game face on.....SNDK at $5 HNI at $7 DOW and friends under $10 were NO BRAINER TRADES. UYG near $1 a no brainer. There is BIG talk of recovery...I ask you why then UYG under April highs, but supported by 50 EMA and do I see another wedge?
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