GREEN SHOOTS

Is our perfect storm approaching? 9.4% rate.....ONLY 325K jobs lost???? much lower than expected but doesn't jive with Thursday numbers of 600K plus.

avg workweek dropped.

Briefing.ocm (previous report)

It is hard to derive a positive spin from the recent market argument that at least the rate of decline in economic data is slowing.

The increase in the unemployment rate is noteworthy for other reasons. The 2009 Obama administration budget (ended Sept. 30, 2009) called for a $1.7 trillion deficit. The economic assumptions assumed an 8.1% average unemployment rate for 2009. That looks like a very long stretch at this time, as the rate is likely to move higher the next few months. That implies that the deficit this fiscal year will be higher than forecast.
There have been hopes recently of a steadying in consumer spending leading to a stabilization in economic trends this fall or later this year, but the hourly earnings data does not provide much support for that argument.
These are still massive job losses and wage gains are minimal. Granted, payroll trends do lag overall economic trends, but unless businesses start to show a willingness to hire and not just to lay off fewer people, the market may be ahead of itself in looking at the recent economic data as harbingers of much better trends.<<

Lots of assumptions NOT based on 9.4% unemployment....LONG TERM YIELDS RISING

A ZUTZ open, a possible blowoof top maybe IF....get reversal day.

9.4% ARGUES not only are jobs NOT being created, the headline number the futures are jumping to seems rather decieiving to me. 10 yr yield 3.87% could roil ANY hope of housing recovery.

And where does $70 oil fit into the plans?

D