DEC MARKET HISTORY

only 7 in last 30 YEARS DEC was downer, Nov COULD bring an (false) employment upside surprise (holiday hiring PLUS shorter month)

The performance to date in 2009 mirrors 2003 blast off, BUT the fundamental backdrop couldn't be more different.

One important fact was the job market was expanding, not shedding 8 million jobs. Credit was set to BLAST OFF into a bubble and expanded at historical rate fueling economic tsunami and earnngs miracle. NOW we have declining credit and bank loans and companies have been lopping heads and cutting back on expansion plans and capital spending.....instead of BANKS LOOSENING standards they are TIGHTENING and CUTTING credit lines.....INSTEAD of GOV's rolling in TAX RECEIPTS they are funding starved.

STOCK performance couldn't hardly be more alike, economic and finacial back drop couldn't be more diferent.

The playbook for Institutions and financials is coming off same page that always seems to work, on a very different economic backdrop, BUT in the DEC trading days ahead, with possibly BONUSSES at stake.....will the horses bolt out of the stalls or KEEP rolling the dice?

WILL MONDAY bring the usual bullishness it does, and stories of FULL shopping malls and Consumers showing no fear or debt hangover? EVEN though 8 million have been taken out of the game since 2007?

NO, I don't have crystal ball nor do I know when the fluffing game ends, when it does I DO know damn good chance....this rally will be seen as a cyclical bull WITHIN a SECULAR BEAR and that ain't good.

IF YOU have gains and I would be on the lookout for signs the gig is up

D