2010 PREDICTIONS

WHAT WILL 2010 BRING INVESTORS? ONE OPINION HERE

One thng for sure, it's been one helluva 2009, but one which saw the avg investor withdraw from equities and pile maybe historically into bonds. The institutional investor is on avg back into stocks.

The bulk of gov stimulus lies ahead, companies have shred vast amounts of overhead and costs and stripped down naked to grow profits with slowing or lower revenues. Financials have been able to raise money and repay a big chunk of money used for bailouts, gee what is not to like?

When I've made decent returns in the past, it has always been from STOCK PICKING, it's probably what I do best. 2 bubbles and 2 pops turned me conservative in that regard, pile on personal business stress, and I pulled in my horns. I accept that, and did what I felt best at the time, which was to protect any asset I had from losses.

When adding in the stock market has gone nowhere in 10 years, I am way ahead of the game, but now what?

Won't businesses need to begin adding workers, for us to really begin the next leg of optimism? With 65% gains from bottom, is it good idea to predict full speed ahead? with only one small retrace of 10%.

We may switch to stock pickers market. We could experience a market like 2004-2005 which mostly went sideways. Consolidating here around 1120 the 50% FIV from highs to lows MAY just have been gathering steam and basing foundation to break out above......hmmm and Precther said short with leverage???

The MARKET TEALEAVES show weakening selling, and growing investor appetite for stocks. Even as other divergences exist, so far have not led to declines.

Many think GOLD may begin to shine again, this AM back above 1100.

FED action threw market into reverse and has defeated 2 Bear markets in a row. Money suppoly to do this has more than doubled in short period of time, banks hold RECORD excess reserves and should this money get lent out in any volume would lead to catostrophic inflation.
This has nothappened as yet and I do not beleive the FED can control it, certainly not w/o raising rates aggresively, which would kill economy.

We are again floating on a sea of debt, and deficits w/o major revival of economy......so for my point of view we have achieved for now a resurrection of bullish stock action but when it ends IMHO no new era has been induced, but more than likely an even worse MONSTER has been forming and when it goes.....will bring down the FED and many of these policies which lead to boom bust cycles.

But game is still on until selling pressure begins to build enough to derail current environment where stocks have risen mostly from withdrawl of selling.

DO you believe the netry by little guy still is in wings? because there is a shitpile of cah there...OR has SO MUCH DAMAGE been down last 2 BEARS that BOND FUND action is no short term phenomenom?

PLEASE, be careful, find an advisor who will swing with the times and not afraid to take you OUT of harms way when that time comes.

SPX dividend yield is currently down to 1.91% !!!!!!!!! Historical SECULAR BEAR MARKET bottoms are born from single digit PE ratios and 6% yields......we weren't even close last 2 bears...and breaking to NEW 10 year lows surpassing 2002 lows suggests.....somewhere folks down the road..... we will need to revisit those lows and either say here we come again or later dude....never again in our lifetimes.....

i DONT like look of a V bottom....w/o a V economy. This is my last post friends of 2009. I WILL return JAN 1 or 2, please feel free to look back at my postings and hopefully you will be back with me as I do my best in 2010 and beyond to tell it like it is.

Duratek