http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-12-01/worse-than-enron/
I have been repeating that Bank profits are mostly from trading and or fictitous in light of new accounting rules ending mark to market accounting practices, so we really don;t know what is on the banks books.....but they WIL pay out BILLIONS in bonuses.
SPX 1112-1113 area is resistance, breadth is weak, very selective rally.
D
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7 comments:
Hi , I am new here. Your blog seems very good. You really know your stuff. Question, if the market and gold pay attention to the important economic articles you post, how low do you think the S&P 500 and Gold could go? Thank You
Thank you, how did you find my blog?
Gold seems verymuch like the NAZDAQ in its final run, but it is reacting to all that FIAT currency being printed to flot economies....money has to go somewhere..into things and stocks, paper assets.
NO yield for money so it is seeking a return snd ANOTHER bubble is now being created....they never learn.
My best guess is when rally top is had 50% of gains will get replaced at minimum....and maybe fair value is closer to 850 SPX...some of my subs feel we are in a primary up move and it has further to go.
The mkt can move contrary to what we see and feel in real life.
But sooner or later whatever reality IS, will be reflected.
Hi Thank you for your prompt reply. I am not sure how I found your blog. I was looking for real bear blogs. Someone true to the bear cause, not a fair weather bear. It is clear from the years you write here, that is the case. I am of the same persuasion. I do not believe in bull anything. Bulls loose, and always will. It is just a matter of time before they loose again. it is refreshing to see a true bear, such as yourself. My best....keep up the fantastic work
Appreciate that. Let me add, I've had good reason to remain bearish, but one key to remember and I've learned this....the bear does sleep, like 2003-2007. Now you have 2 choices...remain in a bearish position and LOSE money, or go with the flow when one can see the bull TA wise...or 3rd just stay neutral.
This phase, since March did trigger some buy signals, unlike 2003 the fundamentals this time are much worse, have not rebounded much and we dont have finacials, autos and housing to bubble.
Again however, I CAN and AM BEARISH but I'm NOT losing money currently FIGHTING the trend...big difference....we can't stay stubborn in a position beyond what may be reasonable.
Hussman calling for 80% chance of stock crash in 2010.
I am a BEAR, I want to be bullish...bullish means beter times are here or coming....
AT this time I will remain true and on sidelines....and I think this whole thing is going to BLOW UP.
IMHO the time to get bullish isnt after 60% rise already. If based on fairy tale, and weak $....it isn't based on rock solid foundation.
Great blog. I added you to my blog roll.
Jay
http://tradingwiththeaveragejay.blogspot.com/
Well it's good to see true bears, where LONG is a 4 letter word. Even though our money is loosing value in safe harbors, the markets move up almost every day, and gold too. But like you say, it is all just a mirage. Let the long fools play as they will. I thought Dubai was just what we needed to break the silly bull spirit. Maybe jobs will have the true number Friday....they lie so much.
OK JAY.
It seems a pretty simple game now. Did the infusion of TRILLIONS and foisting the debt from banks to the American citizens actually work?
CNBC says it has, BAC now wants to pay back the $45B it needed....how quickly everything got fixed...
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