ALICE IN WONDERLAND

If you read the headlines, you will be convinced that CHinese exports are rising, that world economic demand is increasing, and that here in the US a REAL economic revival has begun, the worst is over.

The US stock is said to be a predictor of the economy...I say BS! Earnings topped in 1997, in 2000 the real economy was already in contraction, and the bubble economy had burst with the most blatant penny stock speculative bubble ever seen.....just as stocks were hitting their highs!

MONTHS before 2007 top, there was financial stress and default.....an EXCESS OF FEAR drove stocks to their March 2009 bottom, NOT the economy's bottom.

We are at HISTORICAL HIGHS in comparing the WELL TO DO from the median income folks....never a good thing. With 2.4 MILLION defaults ready to POP the PLAN TO ASSIST homeowners has resulted in a PATHETIC 31,000 mortgage adjustments, and BANKS are SLOW with paper work and RESISTANT to LOWER PRINCIPAL OWED.

REAL WAGES without voodoo economics have STALLED, and the Consumer does not have the room to increase DEBT for consumption as he once did. We have fueled economic activity with these failed FED policies that allowed easy money and EXPLOSION of indebtedness.....can't go there again and that also resulted in the LOSS of MILLIONS of high paying manufacturing jobs.

Did all those in related housing, mortgage and construction suddenly get rehired? is there another BOOM in the works? Are businesses hring again? WHERE pray tell is that demand coming from and how is it being financed? There is little or NO HOME EQUITY to draw upon, tightening bank lending and slack demand are the new reality.

ADD TO THAT HIGH OIL PRICES......and this has begun to dampen already depressed spending levels as home heating has begun to rise along with $3 gas and $80 PLUS OIL....and this filters into the entire economy as goods need to get from pt A to B.

OIL is NOT RISING FROM INCREASED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY....but from stupid FED policies and speculation, I said before THIS DOES NOT END WELL.

The stock markets enthusiasm, built on manipulation HFT, and liquidity flow will not last forever, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me......we're stupid but we're not dumb.

Duratek