Monday, January 04, 2010

DOW BREAKS OUT

To new rally highs along with SPX and RUT with TRANS lagging behind this time, oddly perhaps the VIX stayed above 20

88% up volume was heavy but VOLUME was light, a continuing issue that has not as yet stiffled the rally.

This is a momentum rally with little or NO under pinnings of valuations or yield, the 100 year PLUS history of the stock market has shown EVERY NEW GREAT SECULAR BULL began with PE ratios near dividend yield.

In 1982 the PE ratio and dividend yield were both near 6%. The current SPX dividend yield in UNDER 2% !!! MAJOR MKT TOP as in 2000 had 3% SPX yields!

I'm not saying themarket doesn't go higher, but for the short run I personally would be buying or adding at new highs, would prefer to buy on any weakness.

We are IN CYCLICAL BULL MKT but it's within a NASTY SECULAR BEAR MARKET and my guess much more PAIN awaits the day the piper needs his pay....but not today.

D

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