The ringing in my ears is from all the MSM sources which continue to ring the bell of normalcy, of recovery, of FED got your back......of we're "strengthening MINUTE BY MINUTE"...
...but my friends I don't believe that is anywhere close to the truth....and here is why.
A figure of final sales in the GDP are usually ringing in 4% advances by this far into recovery, currently that's closer to 1.2%
Credit is in contraction mode, not expansion. Credit lending standards have STIFFENED, banks more reluctant to lend.
With "LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY".....housing lays dormant near the bottom of its devestation.
GDP this far into recovery should be humming along at 5-6%.....even higher, but instead we are limping in at 2.4% and many say that will be reduced further next revision.
The 10 YR yield staying below 3% is a dire warning sign and stands in repudiation of the market rally and recovery crowd.
Sentiment this far into recovery for consumers should be soaring, INSTEAD Consumer sentiment is BELOW RECESSION LEVELS.
SMall BUsinesses are particularly hard hit, the polls that express what they see is at Recession levels.
Reading the data from the credit card companies, they report that transaction are about the same as in 2009.....the so called bottom? Can't lie here, in March on Mastercard:
"Nearly all of the growth in earnings came as a result of cost cutting within the firm and even the 6% increase in revenue was primarily a function of currency fluctuations and not a real growth in business "
...but my friends I don't believe that is anywhere close to the truth....and here is why.
A figure of final sales in the GDP are usually ringing in 4% advances by this far into recovery, currently that's closer to 1.2%
Credit is in contraction mode, not expansion. Credit lending standards have STIFFENED, banks more reluctant to lend.
With "LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY".....housing lays dormant near the bottom of its devestation.
GDP this far into recovery should be humming along at 5-6%.....even higher, but instead we are limping in at 2.4% and many say that will be reduced further next revision.
The 10 YR yield staying below 3% is a dire warning sign and stands in repudiation of the market rally and recovery crowd.
Sentiment this far into recovery for consumers should be soaring, INSTEAD Consumer sentiment is BELOW RECESSION LEVELS.
SMall BUsinesses are particularly hard hit, the polls that express what they see is at Recession levels.
Reading the data from the credit card companies, they report that transaction are about the same as in 2009.....the so called bottom? Can't lie here, in March on Mastercard:
"Nearly all of the growth in earnings came as a result of cost cutting within the firm and even the 6% increase in revenue was primarily a function of currency fluctuations and not a real growth in business "
Add to misery is oil above $82 ! and in last 2 months a US $ that has fallen 10% in value! If as the stock market insists we have a recovery that's strong, where is the volume? WHY is 70% of volume from a few sources and HFT? WHY is the FED funds rate still 0%? WHY keep paying on the excess reserves banks hold and don't lend? WHY is the 10 yr bond yielding under 3%????
As seen before unless short of memory, in 1999-2000, again in 2006-2007......reality can be escaped...ignored....fundamentals skipped over......then the smoke clears and even a newborn can see the forest is burning.
Is the smoke going to clear and all we see are blue skies instead?
Duratek
6 comments:
All true -
The financial washout has yet to occur. Until the underlying debt is cleared from the books government numbers can not be trusted. The majority of Americans have lost confidence in Wall Street and Washington. Lying to the public with phony economic data will only make matters worse.
BTW - the increase in the price of oil may be due to the market makers seeing we are closer to a Middle East war than the populace knows.
Sad, yes, how I see it. And what losses have come books of banks etc have been foisted on the public. We're really going to make money off GM says Obama....The new head guy at GM had said they "paid off the debt 5 years early....." but actually borrowed from a different pile to do that so debt didnt go away...aka PONZI...
Public can lose trust....we better hope our creditors don't...
Obama makes Bush look like a Conservative....
The other majic trick is Government Aid. More money borrowed from the the big debt monster. 26 Billion Dollars will be helicoptered over states already in debt. Free money? Hardly, nothing is free. Government officials are truly addicted to debt. They all kick the can down the road in the hope of re-election and then leave the mess to the next mis-fit politician and government official. Truly insane.
Aid bill contains $655m for Mass.
$26b measure clears key US Senate hurdle; Patrick prepares plan to restore budget cuts
WASHINGTON — Massachusetts stands to receive $655 million in federal Medicaid and education money under an aid package that narrowly cleared a key congressional hurdle yesterday despite opposition from the Bay State’s Republican senator, Scott Brown.
gIVES ME THIS SICK PICTURE OF THE politicians grabbing each others ass...might as well sew their hands into each others pockets...come election time, hope all remember who did what or didn't.
we have to take back our country from the barons
OIL? WAR? we'vre been at war 20% of the time since inception...that's very possible...but we can barely handle what we got now...if it can be manipulated....it will be
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