Thursday, December 23, 2010

NO FEAR.....BUT

NO FEAR (2009)

I remember dudes posting on raging Bull in 1999 about the LOW VIX….beware..they lost their ass shorting too early. A LOW VIX may be warning but a low and falling trend of VIX is bullish.
FEAR? A rising vix (trend change from falling) trend however showing fear is to be observed and shows potential for FEAR to drop prices swiftly.

When this comes from LOW LOW levels of complacency, is when it can do the most harm….we don’t see that yet…..VIX hit single digits during 2003-2007 rally.
2009 to present is different, price of stocks have risen faster from lows than any time in past history.

WITHOUT fear you cannot get another bear mkt. For now the market is safe….we know what intense selling looks like….until then bulls have control.

Heading into 2011 it is almost UNANAMOUS those asked are expecting big bullish 2011 for stocks. I don't like being on the team with near 100% certainty. We back to levels of certainty last seen OCT 2007....should be interesting year ahead, and hopefully prosperous.

*All have wonderful xmas with family, that is key, show them you care. Quiet here until next week unless something hits me over weekend.

Duratek

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