Saturday, February 05, 2011

ARE YIELDS KEY TO STOCK MARKET?



We have seen 2 near vertical moves in yields since 2009 lows. The rise in 2011 is even more violent. The more gradual rise from 2003 seems more "normal"......do we actually have a rising yield trend, or is this move contained in the context of a declining trend? (upper blue trend line)

I have argued that rising yields will cause trouble because of edifice of debt, in past rising yields were part of recovery. The aim of FED was to keep rates low, yet the MORE they do, the higher yields react.

Also higher yields could attract money flow out of stocks........flow into bonds is normally caused by fear and trouble in the stock market....as stocks have continued to rally, bonds were sold off and there is little yield in short term plays like Money markets under current FED POLICY.

D

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