Tuesday, February 07, 2012


The market is just hanging around, and as of the current market conditions, no significant sell off should be at hand without a large pick up in desire to sell, not just from lack luster demand.

Why is this occurring? Most of the market participants think the FED has fixed the game, telegraphed policy, 0% rates for another 3 years knocked the snot out of volatility.

We are at decent overhead resistance, for now it is just causing a stall. 3 years into the cyclical bull market, however may not be the time to become totally complacent. We will be on the hunt for any meaningful pick up in the desire to sell.



Anonymous said...

Your attitude has change quite a bit from a couple months ago. You said we were in a bear market and lower prices are straight ahead. Now we are going higher.

I respect your analysis but you definitely misread the market here.

Anonymous said...

Do you think this might be a secular bull market?

Marc R said...

SECULAR BULL? no I rather doubt that. All investing is managing risk, you take your best shot. The mkt did falter, and set off Bear signals, but the ship got righted.

Amazing what pouring gas on the fire can do....it's much easier calling a bottom than a top...we are now at good resistance, a good place to take a breather....looking at Lowry's stats recently...respected source...their selling power is still 130 points above the buying power...not typical of a bull, but it seems this cyclical bull had more gass in tank...
the signal to big players is we still have your back, so no one is unloading, unwinding....but its getting very one sided as well...thx for reading my blog and commenting.

Marc R said...

http://contrarianadvisor.blogspot.com/2011/12/major-averages-in-trouble.html Here's a post I made in DEC, now what I said was "major avg's in trouble" and they were...prices had fallen below 50 and 200....but I didn't give enough weight to the higher low hitting the trendline I drew.

Honestly, I'm doing my best, I want to keep my blog going, post worthwhile opinion, info etc...7 years now...I'm also building a new business, and running myself...time consuming...trying to make more time...maybe concentrate more on weekend posts, where I don't rush to comment...take care......but I dont see at least here...where I said lower prices dead ahead....the weight suggested did chance of that then.

0% rates got us here....what happens when rates rise? This is a BS economy, but...maybe better than pay the piper and really crash...but that's still on the table