Sunday, September 23, 2012


Exhibit A

"Deleveraging – the process of unwinding the economic damage wrought from years of excess - will be a quite arduous economic process; one that will commence at some unknown date in the future. Oh, I guess I failed to mention that total (financial and non-financial) Credit ended Q2 at a record $55.031 TN, or 353% of GDP. And Rest of World holdings of our financial assets ended the quarter at a record $19.100 TN, a $3.860 TN increase from the end of 2008. "

Exhibit B

"In 2010, the number of Federal Register pages devoted to proposed new rules broke its previous all-time record for the second consecutive year. It's up by 25% compared to 2008. These regulations alone will impose large costs and create heightened uncertainty for business and especially small business."

So we have world Central Bankers printing money like there's no tomorrow, and it is the OPINION of many letter writers that YOU "have to be in stocks for long term...." BUY NOW AND BUY OFTEN!

It is hard to argue the success of current policies for inflating Risky assets. But the whole idea of Bear Markets and periods of reconciliation are that the preceding excesses are cleansed and we acan start anew, REAL GROWTH, a REAL ECONOMY.

Is it any wonder, while some who come here and post how great the stock mkt is, how I'm missing the boat, is that THEY are missing the point of my blog.....the greater risk IMHO is not understanding the greater issues and what might their impact be at some point.

I can't predict THE TOP or when the TIPPING POINT will arrive, what I am saying is current policies are aimed at one sector, STOCK PRICES, and a WHOLE LOT OF AMMO has been used to gain higher prices, but what has been the EFFECT on the overall economy?

Higher spending, consumption.....and a LOT of it is Gov't, but stock prices back to near record highs has increased Household wealth. Housing prices had been a more stable storehouse for personal wealth until the BUBBLE....again created by reckless FED policy of unusually LOW Interest rates held low for TOO LONG, in the face of OBVIOUS price speculation that only after the crash was anyone complaining.

ALL this money thrown at the core problems? Is creating even MORE and larger dysfunction, and total credit market debt is still near 350% of GDP....for now the DAY OF RECKONING has been pushed back.......looking at these 2 charts, especially the one showing debt in 1929 (we know what happened next) and where we are standing today......DO NOT LOOK DOWN!


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