Thursday, November 29, 2012




  • New home sales fell from a downwardly revised 369,000 (from 389,000) in September to 368,000 in October. The consensus pegged the number of new homes sold at 388,000.

Key Factors

  • It was disappointing to see such a stark downward revision to the September data. Even though the new housing market may not be as solid as once thought, the trends in the sector continue to be favorable.
  • A lack of inventories of distressed properties has limited the negative effect of foreclosures on existing home prices. That has caused existing home prices to increase over the past few months. As a result, the price premium between a new home and an existing home has shrunk considerably, making new homes relatively cheaper than before and in more demand.
  • Absolute inventory levels of new homes remain near historical lows. Builders will need to continue to boost production in order to meet the newfound demand.
  • Median new home prices increased 5.7% y/y to $237,700.
Consumer confidence current is at 60???? last recovery peaked at 140 !!! WTF are they peddling here as a recovery?
You can see above chart of housing, coud you choke somebody when they continue to chirp about this recovery?
Now headlines say every time a single word is uttered about the "FISCAL CLIFF" and a DEAL is reason for stocks to rally. BS
It's the time of year.....stocks tend to be bullish end of year into XMAS.
The real trouble may not show until well into 2013....or who knows, maybe people wake up sooner.


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