GET INFORMED BEFORE NEXT ELECTION

BuzzFlash.com's Review (excerpt)
From Penguin Books, the Publisher, About "Fiasco":"Many officers have shared their anger with renowned military reporter Thomas E. Ricks, and in Fiasco, Ricks combines these astonishing on-the-record military accounts with his own extraordinary on-the-ground reportage to create a spellbinding account of an epic disaster.

As many in the military publicly acknowledge here for the first time, the guerrilla insurgency that exploded several months after Saddam's fall was not foreordained. In fact, to a shocking degree, it was created by the folly of the war's architects. But the officers who did raise their voices against the miscalculations, shortsightedness, and general failure of the war effort were generally crushed, their careers often ended.

A willful blindness gripped political and military leaders, and dissent was not tolerated.There are a number of heroes in Fiasco—inspiring leaders from the highest levels of the Army and Marine hierarchies to the men and women whose skill and bravery led to battlefield success in towns from Fallujah to Tall Afar—but again and again, strategic incoherence rendered tactical success meaningless.

There was never any question that the U.S. military would topple Saddam Hussein, but as Fiasco shows there was also never any real thought about what would come next. This blindness has ensured the Iraq war a place in history as nothing less than a fiasco. Fair, vivid, and devastating, Fiasco is a book whose tragic verdict feels definitive."

TECHS TO BOTTOM EARLY?

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1154286531.php Droke is good guy IMHO, worth a read.

D

FRI AM DATA ALERT

GDP CAME IN AT 2.5, EMPLOYEE COST INDEX UP .9% AND HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY.
SO WE HAVE A SLOWING ECONOMY, COSTS OF KEEPING EMPLOYEES RISING SHARPLY, AND INFLATION IS IN THE AIR!
WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE DATA, IS TRADER REACTION. WITH THE TRANSPORT INDEX BREAKING DOWN BADLY, CAUTION IS ADVISED

TRANSPORTS NOT CONFIRMING RALLY, FDX THRU SUPPORT

ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY

ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY, I AM FREE
I AM FREE OF THE WORLD’S TROUBLES
I AM FREE TO FLY ABOVE ALL THE WORRIES
I AM FREE TO LEAVE THIS WORLD AND ENTER
A NEW ONE

A NEW WOLRD FREE OF STRIFE AND TURMOIL
FREE OF HATE AND INJUSTICE
FREE OF CRIME AND INPATIENCE
FREE OF THE HANDS OF TIME

ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY, I AM FREE
I AM FREE TO GO WHERE I WANT
I AM FREE OF ALL PAIN
I AM LIGHT AS A FEATHER AND HAVE NO WORRIES
ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY

I HAVE ONLY ONE REGRET IN LEAVING THIS WORLD
AND THAT IS THAT I CANNOT BE WITH YOU ANYMORE
YOU HAVE BROUGHT ME SO MUCH JOY IN MY LIFE
I HOPE YOU KNOW HOW MUCH I LOVED YOU

ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY I AM FREE,
BUT I CANNOT HAVE YOU
BUT WHAT I DO HAVE, AS DO YOU IS A LIFETIME OF MEMORIES
OF HAPPY TIMES AND OF LOVE AND JOY

I KNOW WHAT WE MEANT TO EACH OTHER
THE SADNESS AND EMPTYNESS WILL LIFT
ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY I AM LIFTED FROM MY SORROW
AND AM UPLIFTED WHEN I THINK OF YOU, OUR LIFE TOGETHER

I WILL BE THAT BUTTERFLY SOMEDAY,
AND I AM SURE WE WILL MEET AGAIN
HIGH ABOVE THE WORLD
WITHOUT A CARE, IN TOTAL PEACE
AND TOGETHER AGAIN.

IN LOVING MEMORY AND EVERLASTING PEACE. RUTH, MAY YOUR MOM REST IN PEACE.

DURATEK

ACTIVE SPX CHART UPDATED

Comments on chart are valid, higher lows DID lead to price rise, above short term downtrend line as drawn. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Click to enlarge.

D

To one of my readers

lastch,
appreciate you comments. I have been studying technical analysis for over 8 years now and have been implimenting a system for identifying TRENDS.
It is not quite perfected as to signal exit points, but is very accurate and will be something I will use to trade over any other method. Trend Followers are the MOST succesful traders, so this is what I choose to emmulate.
Maybe I underestimated how I would fell posting to the thin air, not knowing how I was reaching or effecting people vs the email replies and phone conversations with my trading friends, all of whom are extremely saavy and knowledgable.
My reasoning was to have my blog so I could share what I was learning, and I am never short of an opinion.
IMHO, this US market is setting up to put a real hurting on as many as it can lure in.
Looks like it may run to 1280-ish on the SPX, the NAZ is still way underperforming, it led the way to 2000, it led the way in 2003 recovery, it is only group that has signalled the BEAR is BACK using my TA I developed.
Today is strong mkt it looked? YET TRANSPORTS were off near 2% !
Wasn't it the Trannies which led this mkt up? and hit NEW all time highs this year? Yes it was, now their path is diverging....ominous IMHO. UPS key transport missed earnings...so did DUpont.
EBAY INTC DELL AMZN YHOO MSFT all languish near 52 week lows or worse...what's going on?
90% up days then 80 and 90% down days...all in same month? MOST volatile mkt in 55 years, most dont see it...they see what CNBC is peddling.
For you my friend, have helped me realize why I loved my blog....to help open the minds and make people think about what is really going on.
One must not take what is handed them as the truth.
Check back in from time to time, I will do my best to put something of value on my blog as best I can.
Duratek

PICTURE OF THE DAY

I don't think a tradable bottom is in place, sufficient demand at current prices has not shown up IMHO. It may not be until normal cyclical lows made in Sept/Oct time frame. This I might ride into Dec and then skeedaddle until MArch.

Think about the action in the Dow, has it been bullish? higher highs? lows?

With extreme prices being paid in energy, and NO relief that can be seen, inflation is more than on our doorstep. And higher oil trickles down into almost everything we buy or need.

Dollar is soaring today, news reports say it's because of middle east unrest, imagine that the US $$$ as safe haven...LOL gues they do not care about the $trillions in debt and unfudned liabilities? Gold off in reaction.

So, we have an engine, in ASIA some have called CHINDIA (complete investor) that is gaining spedd and horsepower and is insatiable in its growing deamnd to feed....consume natural resources, this may be unstoppable unavoidable and the result could be a doubling in energy consumption in 10 years! HOW is this demand going to be met?

We are ill prepared and not moving FAST enough to deal with these andmany other issues. We have a puppet at the helm we only get lip service from.

Ford comes out with 500 HP Mustang, neat huh? SUV'S roam the land, Hummers on every street, it isnt that they can't afford the gas, it is the rate of consumption that is the problem, gas mileage MUST increase, conservation, more diesel engines, new fuels and technology.

Lots of talk about ETAHNOL, but it is nt very efficient, and it takes lots of POWER to produce, pesticides etc, sugar cane is more reasonable source, of which the US has none. INstead we put tarrif on incoming Ethanol and add a SUBSIDY you and I pay for towards US produced Ethanol, Ethanol cannot stand on its own without 50 Cent gal subsidy, again you and I pay.

My moving average work tells me NAZ is in bear market again, with the DOW and SPX VERY close, but no signal yet. But one thing seems very clear to me, the demand for stocks is dwindling while supply increases, this is setting us up for a big mistake. And we just had 3 staright triple digit losses.

Lemmings are staying put for now, and I still expect a nice rally from lows in Fall into year end, but that will only be a temporary lull before more increased selling action returns.

It seems like a NO BRAINER to invest in oil and energy related stocks here, you see it on every magazine cover, Peak OIL stories abound, "we are running out of oil"....WHO doesn't think oil is just going to keep going up?

And that is what bothers me, contrarian as I am, it seems too easy. TOO many people think this is true.

I agree no new oil discoveries of significance have been found in last 10 years. Demand from China and India is growing exponentially, these are all real situations.

My gut tells me a correction is coming and if I was wanting to add for start positions, this is what I might look for. Gold and OIL charts look like bull markets, so good chance of higher highes down the road.....but you always get bull corrections too.

When wanting a position in something, it is sometimes a good idea to ease into it, 1/3 a 1/3 and if trend is solid all in the amount you have decided you can risk, and an exit strategy.

Not every trade will be a winner, even if based on sound theory, so it is key to keep your losses small. It is NOT so important to be stubborn and be proven right. The best make mistakes all the time, it is just when they ARE right it is in big way.

COULD HIGH ENERGY prices, inflation, weak hosuing market, and FED rate increases all conspire to cause a Recession?

I think so, and wouldn't a world slowdown, weaken demand for oil? With lots of supply meeting current demand, if demand slackens, won't prices tumble?at least temporarily?

Things are getting VERY interesting, and troubling, stay tuned.

Duratek

BOJ BUSTS A MOVE

BoJ ends zero interest rate policy

Peter Alford, Tokyo correspondent 15 jul 06T

HE Bank of Japan has terminated its zero interest rate policy, marking the country's emergence from a twilight zone where bank accounts pay 0.001 per cent, a standard home mortgage rate is 2.5 per cent and apartments are worth 70 per cent less now than 20 years ago.Yesterday's decision to move the overnight call rate target, the so-called policy rate, from "effective zero" to 0.25 per cent for the first time since March 2001 underscores the central bank's confidence that Japan's long struggle with deflation is finally won.
Major retail banks greeted the news with an immediate interest lift for ordinary at-call savings bank deposits from 0.001 per cent to a princely 0.1 per cent.
Dai Ichi Life Research cautioned, however, that tangible benefits would only be felt by the rich and the debt-free elderly - the 12 per cent of households who control more than half Japan's Y728 trillion ($8.37 trillion) of bank savings and deposits.
Dai Ichi estimated the interest rate shift would add about Y557 billion annually to household incomes and cost home mortgagees an additional Y135 billion.
The yen, bond prices and the Tokyo stock market dropped yesterday and a senior analyst, Credit Suisse Securities chief economist Hiromichi Shirakawa, warned the combined effect of the Japanese tightening and US inflation news next week could roil world markets.
"We share (the BoJ's) concern, which is mainly a further downturn of equity markets globally," Mr Shirakawa said.
"Next week could be when we again see downward pressure on equity markets."
Two other uncertainties worry the Japanese markets; the timing of further rate rises and the future of BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui, widely regarded as an important factor in Japan's stabilisation following a decade of BoJ policy failure.
"We have no intention to carry out consecutive rate rises," Mr Fukui told journalists last night. "We will adjust interest rates gradually while carefully checking the economy and prices."
However, Mr Fukui's gradualist language does not impress analysts such as Macquarie Securities Japan chief economist Richard Jerram who noted this week that so far this year the BoJ had tightened monetary conditions at the earliest opportunity and quickly. Some Tokyo market economists said yesterday the BoJ still planned to get to 1.5 per cent by March 2008 when 71-year-old Mr Fukui's term ends.
Others, such as Mr Shirakawa believe political conditions - the governing Liberal Democrat Party elects a new prime minister on September 20 - followed by worsening international conditions and a sharp downturn in the Japanese corporate profit cycle will prevent the BoJ from tightening again before mid-2007. On the second question, Mr Fukui indicated he intended to stay at the post. "I caused a fuss and worried many people, but I still have a duty to fulfil," he said. "There is no change in my intention."
The governor has been wildly assailed over his investment seven years ago in the now-notorious Murakami fund. Mr Fukui has been cleared of any illegality or conflict by a BoJ examination, but the association with alleged inside-trader Yoshiaki Murakami has made him bitterly unpopular - 72 per cent of respondents to a newspaper poll released yesterday said he should resign.