Saturday, December 31, 2011


Most will probably feel, not a bad year overall, the market volatility was very high, but then what was the harm, stocks basically FLAT! So maybe you will just sit tight and figure you've been through the worst? Where else is your money going to go?

The PROS own the market, the HFT's and large Hedge Funds, but the volume has been LIGHT and there is no room for a crowd to HIT THE EXITS.

By MOST measures, we are in a new Bear Market, but you won't hear single utterance of that reality on the boobus tubus. And certainly not on the "hair cafe' "

There is life in the economy, interest rates are historically low, but the current gov and FED policies are not doing a good job clearing out the prior imbalances, it is more just holding the ship upright and from sinking.

At what cost? There is no real effort to cut costs, or to raise new revenues. We can't continue with what we got in office, yet the wannabe's look sick too.

Dirty minded Chris Rock has a routine where he says he hates all politicians, he says why can't they just wait and read the bill being voted on or not to have already come to a conclusions because of one's party or leaning right or left, why not just think about the issue, let it bounce around inside your brain and come to the BEST DECISION.....good luck with that.

60 TIMES we raise the gov't debt ceiling, this is a joke.....just blow the stupid thing up, stop playing games. Does Europe right the ship? Right now, even our currency has rallied because we look less worse? We DO have the Reserve currency....imagine if we didn't.

Wars fought we didn't want and can't win against an inivisible foe not a country, 1,000's of lives lost, $Trillions spent.....when do we return to the Constitutional principals, and lose the Roman Empire ones?

Savers continue to get the shaft, with little else offered except the RISK MARKETS.....I don't like Musical Chairs with too many people playing and only a few chairs.

Have great New years, be safe, and happy for what we DO have.....and hope for some light ahead. Me personally....100% cash , maybe short some...I'm thinkng rocky 2012



"There is no doubt that de-risking/de-leveraging is taking its toll. It is an inhospitable environment for leverage. The MF Global fiasco proves that too little has changed here at home. And I take the drubbing unleashed upon the major U.S. financial stocks as confirmation of festering problems throughout U.S. and global finance. While the market ended little changed for the year, the extraordinary volatility connotes inherent instability. Yet even on this the final trading day of the year, much is left unclear, uncertain, unresolved and open to interpretation. Has impressive U.S. market and economic resiliency been signaling inherent strength and a stage set for a banner 2012? Or have complacency and the market’s inability to discount troubled waters ahead once again set the marketplace up for disappointment? Next week: “Issues 2012”

Friday, December 30, 2011


Spain revises up deficit and raises taxes

Spain's new government warned Friday that the country's budget deficit will be much higher than anticipated this year, as it unveiled a first batch of austerity measures that include surprise income and

Wednesday, December 28, 2011


Most analysts still looking for a SPX 10% rise in 2012.....


Tuesday, December 27, 2011


There have been 38 90% volume days since this summer, no week seems to go by without having a 90% up or down volume day go by. This is not typical of bull market action, bull markets are set up by exhausting the supply of sellers and the majority are very anxious to bid stocks up so they can induce holders to sell to them, not TOO much worry about a decline in price.

But we're here in the 1250 SPX range, you might say, what's to worry, all this up and down action hasn't cost me a dime....YET!

If you read Doug Noland's DEC 23rd piece at, from link I provided or on your own, you will have a better idea historically where we stand and what the current mechanics are providing to the economy.

In a nutshell, the way I see it, the voting mechanism and predictability of the stock market have eroded. The small share buyer has been replaced by the HFT and the many hedge funds that incorporate a sophisticated analogue to derive pennies of profits from 1,000's of trades a day based on spreads between 2 groups of stocks or any nuance they can find that when fed into a super computer, does all the rest. It is my belief this is all sanctioned and given rubber stamp approval by all overseeing agencies.

This is not beneficial to the individual investor nor the economy at large, HFT and those who have set up trading algorithms make up the BULK of the trading volume on any given day.

38 MANIC volume days in last 6 months is not a sign of an efficient market, and it is chasing away, and keeping away the small investor in droves. They in turn have NO reasonable vehicle to gain returns with near 0% interest rates and a 2% 10 year yield.

This policy, fostered by the Fedeeral Reserve to support economic growth is doing anything but that. YET they cling to this policy come hell or high water. STUBBORN men have gotten us into this mess, a few who think they are smarter than the combined wisdom of history and common sense.


Saturday, December 24, 2011


" However, and especially over the past year, financial power has subtly yet markedly shifted from traditional institutional fund managers, the crowded venture capitalist arena, and the scores of IPO dealmakers to "sophisticated" Wall Street financial players incorporating various forms of financial engineering (typically, variations of "spread trades"). While assets have shrunk and scores of equity mutual funds have been closed, 1,000 new hedge funds are said to have joined the fray as industry assets continue their historic Bubble ascent.”

There is NO room for John and Janet C Q Public. The game is RIGGED with VIOLENT ABNORMAL HISTORIC volatility with over 30 90% volume days since the summer!!! There probably were not 12 of these during the entire 1980-2000 greatest bull market!

Stocks reflecting the "VOTES" of millions of shares traded, bought and sold are now HFT trading schemes and large institutions using stocks as their Las Vegas Casino.

These new trends, all fostered by the SEC and anyone in charge, thinking this is all good, brings liquidity?....nothing has been done. ANy laws passed prove ineffective and aren't even enforced...BrainDEAD OXLEY is one...a joke.

Banks could actually make profits if they charged enough for loans and paid more to induce deposits, none of this is happening. SAVERS the sacrificial lambs, get near NOTHING FOR SAVINGS. AND one sure as hell....anyone holding long term bonds yielding below 2% are going to get an Historic HOSING! Bonds may be in the longest running bull market in history which began during Volkers rates shot up to rediculous levels like 16% and have been falling ever since that INFLATION was PURGED.

Now the FED and CB'ers have been able to pile on debt, keep rates LOW, and do ALL KINDS of things to keep economies humming all these years................few talk of the TRILLIONS around in Derivitives......but the last 10 years plus of fighting the corrective forces of the BEAR MARKETS and the WILL TO REVRT TO THE NORM AND CORRECT THE PREVIOUS EXCESSES....have been fought tooth and nail with everything they could bring......

And it brings us to today......this is not 1990, or 2000, or would seem to me we are reaching a backs to the wall, running out of financial gadgets, a DAY OF RECKONING is much closer than anytime over the last decade. 1.8% GDP 3 years into a "RECOVERY" in certainly anything but normal.

8.5% unemployment is anything but normal 3 years into "recovery". Bank Of America our largest bank has sunk under $5......penny stock territory.

Those over 50 thrown to curb, can't even get interview for a job......and many ask the question "has the American Dream been busted?"

Here we approach XMAS, and the New Years, and I'm just getting this out of my system......I can remain positive about what we can accomplish as individuals, but I have seen the faces of the REAL PEOPLE effected and there is a pain like never seen or felt before, a desperation of many of our fellow Americans.....and it feels helpless, like there is nothing we can do?

I say put a 3rd party in power or someone like RON PAUL. WE NEED REAL CHANGE, WE NEED ALMOST ANYONE but the jerks status QUO we've been getting.

BUSH a jerk and liar, abused his Conservative constituency, OBAMA a fraud and has done nothing. WASH is so crossed up and bloated with career politicians, lobbyists and special interests......they can't even pass a BILL to make it ILLEGAL for CONGRESS to TRADE STOCKS BASED ON INSIDER INFORMATION???!!^%&&$*#$(($((($##!!!

NOT one individual has had charges pressed against them for ANY CRIME committed during the WORST FINANCAIL CRISIS in history??? NOT ONE!!?????

The interent is important no doubt, but inmost cases products bought no taxes collected....has put countless retailers OUT OF BUSINESS!!

ON a personal note, I was kicked to the curb and am one of those baby boomers at 56 had no job and wondered what was next. SO I crerated my own company doing what I knew how to do for the past 30 years plus.

I have had some success, I have found people expanding, renovating.....needing office these difficult times! There is HOPE....we need real change...justice.....JOBS based on LOW TAXES on SMALL TO MEDIUM BUSINESS.....LOW TAXES FOR THOSE MAKING under $1M. Republicans who won't allow ANY rise in taxes to those making GOBS of funny is rediculous.

DO AWAY with the 15% DIVIDEND tax rate and double that, this MOSTLY only helps the INSIDERS who get paid with paper stocks, keep the rate at 15% for those NORMAL people not making more than $1M.

USE FLAT TAX maybe for those making under $250K. GOV'T option for health care.....the cost of health care is choking most workers....sapping their BUYING STRENGTH.

LET RATES RISE SOME....give investors a more balanced choice, SUPPORT THE US $!

GD bless, and may all my friends, family and readers enjoy health and happiness into the New Years.


Friday, December 23, 2011


Spending and incomes show weak November gains

American consumers spent at a lackluster rate in November as their incomes barely grew, suggesting that U.S. households may struggle to sustain their spending into 2012.Consumer spending rose just 0.1 ...

Thursday, December 22, 2011


"But a third estimate of gross domestic product showed that the economy is growing at a slower clip than many expected. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of just 1.8% last quarter, slower than the 2% measured in the previous reading."

Jobs are being produced when the GDP isn't even above 2%?


Sunday, December 18, 2011


This time it's different? In what lifetime was a declining 200 day avergae bullish? FORGET what the boob tube is telling, forget what "experts" come on and tell you "how the US is NOT like Europe and our economy will continue to grow" tell that to the 4 MILLION baby boomers tossed to the curb.

Stats are for liars? Unemployment rate dropping is good new? what if it dropped because people dropped off the 99 week claims list and gave up looking?

Wages are not growing, they are stagnant, at the same time, the wealthier have gotten richer, OH I mean the Politicians...their wealth has grown by 26% during this time of financial part due to they play by different rules than the CITIZENS who eleected them! BASTARDS can trade on INSIDE INFO, MAKE BIG CASH and it is LEGAL???? WTF? yeah.....they are finding it hard to pass a bill to repeal this, funny how Mr FAIR can't find time to mention this repugnant piece of info.

When will the SAFE trade of fiding YIELD blow up in our faces.....people chasing 10 year yields near 1.8% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Does that sound like INFLATION FEAR MY FRIENDS?

Where else you gonne hear about this but here? It's just my humble opinion



Should you ignore a holding you own when the price falls out of a range? CAN you just trade on ideas?


Wednesday, December 14, 2011


Some would have you believe "it's different here", it's not as bad here, we have growth, slower than we want but our economy is growing. FED leaves policy stand pat....since 2009 0% rates...on and on.

If you are a small business you can't get to those LOW rates, refi, home perhaps....but prices in most areas still falling.

Chart above shows Chinese market has been falling since it topped in breaking to new multi year lows.....yet they have plenty of us $'s and so far haven't heard the words financial crisis one is bailing OUT the Chinese, but their market has been VERY WEAK.

Consumer spending has hit a 5 month low, after the Black friday bargains, shoppers pulled back and stores like BEST BUY have lowered their projections....folks, it's a tough environment.

Noone has answers, I don't expect any. There has been a smoke screen thrown over the smoke screen so even those who know a lot, can even get confused.

Growth will not accelerate into 2012, most think the market will rise maybe 5% into 2012, there is NO worry about a freefall.

ERUOPE stinks, so the $ is rallying killing commondities. GOLD may be in new Bear mkt, OIL seems pricey considering $ rally. IT FEELS LIKE DEFLATION TO ME.


Monday, December 12, 2011


Stocks: More European worries   EACH and EVERY RALLY was based on EURO PROGRESS? but then every following day we get headline like this?

There isn't enough paper they can print to cover over this mess. WE in a HEAP in trouble.


Wednesday, December 07, 2011


"Stocks Slip, Hope Dims for Europe Deal

U.S. stocks fell early Wednesday as differences between officials in Europe dimmed the prospects of a deal to save the euro at this week's summit of European leaders. "

a 4% gain comes from (but not exclusive) "DEAL for EUROPE".....when is a DEAL not a DEAL? only in our MUCH is made of nada!

Not a trading comment, cept longer term, we ARE in confirmed Bear mkt, accidents to DOWN early jan IMHO

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

"The Bloomberg article said the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system when all guarantees and lending limits were added up."

"While Bernanke did not mention Bloomberg or any other news organization by name, he said in a letter to lawmakers that the figure and other estimates of larger total amounts of lending, were "wildly inaccurate." On any given day, Fed credit from its emergency liquidity programs was never more than about $1.5 trillion, he said."

Monday, December 05, 2011


Does anyone realize we have had 30 90% volume days since just AUGUST? This is unprecedented market volatility and never seen in ANY BULL MKT!

4% MOVE DAY???? most of these also occur within a BEAR MARKET.  NIMBLE traders can navigate this and make money, the average investor cannot.

This all tells me the EVIDENCE as I see it are for LOWER, MUCH LOWER prices in the months ahead.

Fixes announced on a weekly basis from govt's and CB'ers, so were they in 2008.


Friday, December 02, 2011

Fiscal deficits hurt Fed's efforts on economy: Fisher

DALLAS (Reuters) - Federal deficits are complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to help the economy, but using the central bank as a printing press to solve the problem "is not an option," a top Fed official said on Friday.



"Perpetual QE Without the Billboard "   by Jim Willie.

If you have any desire to understand the TRUTH of what is currently going on and BLOT OUT THE LIES AND DECEPTION, reaqd the entire article, try to digest what it is saying.


Yes that's you!

Take a spring, hold it down indefinately, winding it tighter and tighter....have an elephant sit on the spring, then another one on its lap.....then finally get up and let it go.....what happens?

IS THERE NO CONSEQUENCE FOR PRINTING FIAT CURRENCY to the heavens to try and cover up the debt crisis?

WHAT THEY, the FED RESERVE and our GIV and world CB'ers are doing is taking the debt caused by others, and hoisting it onto the nOT ONE ARREST AND PROSECUTION has been made, not ONE PERSON held responsible for the worst financial crisis in history...not ONE.

WHY? because they, the Insiders are protected. They the INSIDERS, like gov't officials don't play by the avg man rules, and can trade on INSIDE INFO, where the avg man would be jailed!

Great gig if you can get it.....surely the drop in unemployment from 9% to 8.6% is from a VIBRANT ECONOMY built on investment? not fluff and more debt piled onto heap? And not from a HUGE DROP OFF from those who NO LONGER receive benefits....ah the pesky truth...

The world is awash in fiat currency trying to paper over the crisis...10 year yields around the world are ALL way above the meager 2% seen here in the US even as the FED RESERVE has to print and buy the very bonds meant to float our debt US stocks.....? or


Thursday, December 01, 2011


FORTUNE -- European leaders are watching the Band-Aids they stuck on the eurozone's gushing wound of debt start to peel off. The largest attempted fix, the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, finally fell off last night, after the fund announced that it would not be able to lever up to a level that could actually bring stability to the eurozone.

Stocks soared yesterday on CB/FED policy statemements. DONT BUY STOCKS based on one day moves or make money in this market you need a crystal ball!

MM's want to LOOK good, so they dump their losers and pile into gainers to look better to shareholders, the end of year reshuffling usually brings gains in DEC.


Wednesday, November 30, 2011


Almost a 500 point Dow advance, well that should convince everyone to get on board, the worst is over?
Price bounced and recaptured 1215, so this could springboard us back to 1292-1300.

When the day is done, the FED and CB'S may have goosed themarket and scorched the shorts once again, but atthe end of the day, words and CB action will not cannot do anymore than delay the painful correction.


Monday, November 28, 2011


4:54PM: EU officials are moving forward on a plan to increase fiscal discipline in the eurozone.

Can they get from the same old story? A WORLD OF DEBT FLOATING AROUND that needs to be financed somehow or defaulted, printing is only method currently used. ANY new story about "A DEAL" is met with "enthusiastic" stock purchases?

Consumers went on buying binge? Best Black friday ever? SHopping is great way to avoid reality. TA says we're in Bear MKT folks.....I am wary still.


Saturday, November 26, 2011

"Global Contagion" by DOUG NOLAND

"Increasingly, the marketplace is moving more in the direction of the bearish view of things, a viewpoint not long ago disregarded as misplaced and alarmist. I have worried that the market’s expectation for German and ECB capitulation has been poised for disappointment."

Friday, November 25, 2011


"MILAN (Reuters) - Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over six months on Friday and its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances, raising the pressure on Rome's new emergency government.
The auction yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier, capping a week in which a German bond auction came close to failing and the leaders of Germany, France and Italy failed to make progress on crisis resolution measures.
Though Italy managed to raise the full planned amount of 10 billion euros, weakening demand and the highest borrowing costs since it joined the euro frightened investors, pushing Italian stocks lower and bond yields to record highs on the secondary market.
Yields on two-year BTP bonds soared to more than 8 percent in response, a euro lifetime high, despite reported purchases by the European Central Bank."


"This Summer's first U.S. debt downgrade came after Washington failed to fix the debt ceiling one way or the other. Three months later, and Washington just failed again.
Yet that first downgrade also saw 10-year Treasury yields fall to 3.0% as US debt prices rose. And today, with a second downgrade nailed on, that yield is already down below 2.0%.
What gives? Why is the financial world piling into US debt - driving its price higher - even as the security of that very debt risks being de-rated further below the magic risk-free AAA mark?"

Let it be NO secret that as our markets fell this week, our paper tiger currency rallied! EURO ZONE ugliness leads to that "safe haven" romp-a-room charge.

Now, has our credit worthiness improved? Didn't S&P warn that progress MUST be made or further downgrades loom? ISn't that why SUPER C was formed? SO they couldn't even agree and come up with ONE SINGLE IDEA? NOT ONE? Yes our yields continue to fall to Depression like levels and it appears anyway that there are tons of buyers for a SUB 2% 10 year yield??? and this doesn't worry anybody? THIS IS A DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION LIKE SIGNAL

SO what to do? For now, just sitting in US $'s is making you money, on top of that US EQUITY prices are falling so if you sold and sit in cash you are effectively SHORTING the market with NO RISK, with HOPES to buy back shares of good companies or SP funds oe ETF'S at bargain prices....yeah just like the insiders do.....ONE have to HAVE CASH to be able to do that and not sit idly buy as a bagholder patsy to do so.

CALL YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR, call ANY advisor and ask them what to do....please post anyone telling you to run for the hills, raise cash. THEY WILL SAY SIT TIGHT....they always say STAY PUT.

It is in the nature of the investor to finally PANIC after mounting losses and flood the exit gates...usually near THE LOWS, like in 2009. Not TOO many wanted to touch stocks at height of crisis with bank failures warned of looming.

In a BULL MKT one must indeed RIDE THE EBB and FLOW TO EACH NEW HIGH or you WILL miss it, because often the greatest gains come in a single day or 2 of trading...NO ONE is that good to catch those. YES you have to stomach shake down draw downs as the markets in BULL MKTS WILL correct, but Technical Analysis can keep us IN, and WARN us if the trend is no longer our friend.

I have signalled BEAR MKT IS NOW UPON US, that is of course just my opinion, and I am just telling you what I am doing, you must get expert advice and in the end make your own mind up.....'do I ride this out, make portfolio changes, run for the hills...whatever"

My main point is, everyone must think for themselves, and you must have some way you can figure out your best options. CAN YOU find a Financial Advisor who can help you weather these storms? WHAT is YOUR time horizon, everybody's is different.


because they have single handedly ruined our currency and are responsible for the current LOW INTEREST RATE POLICY that SCREWS the saver and tries to BAIL OUT the investor....I mean INSIDER.

It feels like it to me, that these same policies, and world crisis is the culmination move of a multi decade move into Treasuries driving the yield down to Historical Depression Like lows......and that feels like the TITANIC to me.....quite a LARGE PORTION running in the same direction at a time where our need to finance great is the greatest...USUALLY that would mean HIGHER RATES (like eslewhere in world) to ATTRACT capital to buy the yields with it's inherrant below 2% it LOOKS like there is very little risk in holding them.

IF INDEED for now that is correct, does a below 2% yield warn of inflatoin? HARDLY

Be careful my friends, open your minds, seek the truth.



Thursday, November 24, 2011


I DO not agree with everything in above article, but thefacts are accurate and there is NO doubt in my mind, the unregulated FEDERAL RESERVE has done more harm then good. And those who have SAVED, are NOT GIVING THANKS to a FED POLICY that gives them SQUAT RETURNS...those who choose NOT to FEED THE COMPANY INSIDERS by buying their $0 based shares just for privledge of holding a piece of paper....have NOWHERE to go for a return on their savings...a CRIME! If you had $1 MILLION in savings you could barely pay your electric bill each month with your returns, SOMETHING is wrong!

Our political process where we end up with CAREER Politicians, instead of citizens serving the citizens best interests leads to abuse. During the last term Congress became 26% richer while Americans loss wealth and became more indebted! The fact that Congress is allowed to trade in INSIDE INFORMATION is a slap in theface to EVERY AMERICAN who would be slapped in jail like Martha Stewart was. Had a POLITICO heard what Martha had and sold, or even sold SHORT that drug company, they would be rolling in dough, not rolling dough in prison......WHERE IN ANY COMMON SENSE WORLD does that make any sense? YOU WILL NOT see any bill to change this come forward, why screw a good deal? BUT WHY do these blow hards who suck on the teet of special interest groups and sell us out in a minute get these perks?

SIT-INS and protests should not be at Wall Street, it should be at "CON"gress....which has LOWER ratings then our sad president.

The US $ has staged a sort of near death rally recently, mainly because Europe is also so screwed up that for at least the short time being, makes the flimsy $ look good.....still a "SAFE" haven?

$70 TRILLION in DEBT, and a years of GDP current funded debt, expect more years of $TRILLION PLUS debt to be added to it.
IN AFGHANISTAN and parts unknown for what purpose, fighting for OUR freedom may be costing us our financial freedom.

TAXES MUST RISE, OR GOVT SPENDING MUST BE CUT OR BOTH as we approach the ZENITH OF IGNORING OUR PROBLEMS.  "SUPER" Committee was formed to deal with this issue onbly to have, surprise surprise come up with ZERO SOLUTIONS OR RECCOMENDATIONS!!!

Each rally in stocks precedes with some story about how money will be pumpd into systems or another arranged bailout to bailout the bailout in Europe, only to be followed with another story of "Euro Zone still in trouble?......YOU CANNOT PRINT NOR SPEND YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY

GOLD and SILVER should continue to shine in a world of synchronized printing, not withstanding periodic whipsaws and retraces.

But it seems clear to me, the BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS IS BACK, and that tells me to be OUT OF ALL STOCKS, and wait for a period like 2009 to nibble back in at MUCH LOWER PRICES, JMHO

What makes it possible for the US to continue with its policies? wreckless spending and propups? LOW LOW INTEREST RATES a 10 year below 3% !!!!....IMHO this sounds more like PANIC, CRISIS and DEFLATION than Expanding economy, inflation.

if you just listen to CNBS, you get a one sided sided views leave you open to be BLIND SIDED.

As we slid into OCT lows I warned of a BEAR MKT, then we saw a spirited rally, but I saw an eerie similarity to 2008 action. I don't know if I will be right again, I just know what I see....

And with all the historic VOLATILITY as registered by so many 90% volume days, this is more characteristic of bear market action, not bull markets.

YES IMHO it's time to pare back, or get out and be ready to buy at much lower prices. Could stocks rally in spite of everything? Investing is NEVER a certainty, you do your best to playthe odds and minimize risk. Many of the major markets have already broken to new lows like Japan, none of that is a good sign.


Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The American Dream

Post coming this weekend, why SPOIL it now? I've been trying my best to post a few things, and charts since beginning my new venture, running my own office furniture company.

I appreciate the loyal followers who still come to read what I have to say and peruse the charts.

I am VERY concerened going forward about being exposed to equities, there isn't much choice elsewise, I think we are back to return of principal not return ON principal.

Happy shitty as things can be, still take time to give thanks and appreciate what we DO have






Love the technology, love the forecasts, read all the opinions you want, THIS one ends up the only one that matters. I had warned months ago this stock had topped and don't get near it.


Monday, November 21, 2011


Moody's issued a warning on France's creditworthiness Monday, saying that rising interest rates on French government debt caused the difference in yield between French and German 10-year bonds to widen more than 200 basis points last week -- a record for the eurozone.

"Elevated borrowing costs persisting for an extended period would amplify the fiscal challenges the French government faces amid a deteriorating growth outlook, with negative credit implications," Moody's said in a statement.

And didn't Cramer say BUY? SPX Losing thwe 1215 support zone isn't a good sign, has the Santa rally come and gone? FUTURES DOWN -18


Friday, November 18, 2011



  • Consumer Sentiment sits at near lowest levels, 3 years into recovery. If you hacve a job , great, if you don't it is difficult.
    Around the world Governments are cutting spending in an austerity move to trim budgets, but not here? Gov't spending is keeping the economy at least running on 4 cylinders.

    LOW LOW interest rates are goosing certain segments of the economy, but taking toll on others, to be a mortgage banker now must feel good.

    WE NEED BALANCE, and tons of commercial space lays vacant....a truely jobless recovery


    Friday, November 11, 2011


    Read what you want, see what you can see. Another triple digit GAIN on EURO fears subsiding.....the market has become a JOKE.


    Thursday, November 10, 2011


    It seems now very common place that the markets move triple digit with 80 and 90% volumes up or down of total volume, this used to be a RARE occurrence.

    But we can say that this type of market behavior is more commonly found in BEAR MARKETS, know for their volatility.

    One day all is lost the GREEK TRAGEDY. Next day the debt gets "RING FENCED" and the bailout mania continues. The next day a referendum spoils th emood and markets sell off, only to come rightback with a triple digit gain when that same referendum is called off. All this DRAMA!!

    Yesterday the Dow lost almost 400 points! NO big deal right? It was just MORE DRAMA, coming this time from Italy....10 year yields SOARING to 7% !!!  (here we pay 2% !!)

    Today I see pre market futures plus 12 on the SPX, so I am guessing......just another day in the stock market, set your worries aside.

    9% unemployment here almost 3 years after the BOTTOM CAME, and recovery was hailed, but don't tell that to the many who have been lost from the unemployment roles and benefits.

    Mortgage companies are doing well, lots of ACTION buying and refi's with a 30 year mortgage UNDER 4% !! and maybe 1/2 point. This is great for anyone in the market for a home, maybe not so for those trying to make the payments.

    LOW LOW HISTORIC LOWS in Consumer Confidence, a boatload of indicators NOT resembling any kind of recovery based on historical data.

    A WORLDWIDE crisis is obviously STILL IN PLAY.....act accordingly.


    Sunday, November 06, 2011


    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The jobs crisis has left so many people out of work for so long that most of America's unemployed are no longer receiving unemployment benefits.
    Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent -- a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.

    RECOVERY "A return to a normal condition. " REALLY?


    Thursday, November 03, 2011


    "Already, Italy's borrowing rates have jumped to record levels at the mere thought of a Greek default. If Greece does default, investors would be prone to think that other countries might, too — and they know full well that Italy's economy is too big for Europe to bail out.
    French President Nicolas Sarkozy claimed it would never come to that.
    "We cannot accept the explosion of the euro, which would mean the explosion of Europe," he said in Cannes at a summit of leaders from the Group of 20 most powerful economies.
    But Europe's defenses are still weak. If it were aggressive in buying national bonds, the European Central Bank might be able for a time to keep a lid on those borrowing costs before they rose to the point that Italy's government would no longer be able to finance itself on capital markets.
    On the other hand, if the ECB were to shy away from such an approach then the risk of contagion would grow. The ECB made clear Thursday it is uncomfortable playing such a role.
    Greece appeared to step back from the brink on Thursday and canceled plans for a referendum. If its feuding politicians can agree to the plan launched in Brussels last week, they'll get the next batch of euro8 billion ($11 billion) in bailout money.
    But even then, the problems are far from over.
    True, the agreement would reduce Greece's debt — but not by much. In 2020, in the best scenario, Greece would have the same level of debt that it did three years ago."
    When the crisis began.


    "The FOMC issued its most recent statement today. To little surprise, the FOMC kept its target interest rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that the Fed remains prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery and that it will continue to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings. In a question and answer session, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that under the right conditions the Fed's purchase of mortgage-backed securities would be considered.
    Just before Bernanke's press conference began the Fed's revised growth forecast was released. For fiscal 2011 the Fed expects economic growth to range from 1.6% to 1.7%, down from the range of 2.7% to 2.9%. For 2012, growth is expected the range from 2.5% to 2.9%, down from a range of 3.3% to 3.7%. Additionally, the Fed raised its long-run umemployment rate forecast to 5.6% from 5.4%."

    Wednesday, November 02, 2011

    Tuesday, November 01, 2011


    WE broke the lower range and it was NO big deal.....when we broke out above they all said "this is proof a big deal" but was it? One good throw over deserves another?

    You can read the headlines.......does it matter, one day we got a EURO deal, next day GREECE pops its ugly head again....can;t wait to see headline, "Greece was just messing with us.....we got DEAL!"


    Monday, October 31, 2011


    Market was in an extreme overbought condition, so today was excuse to sell and take some profits. Many think that since the market broke ABOVE a 2 month consolidation range, the worst is over and that level will serve as support.


    Saturday, October 29, 2011


    Today’s numbers provide a monthly breakdown of the quarterly data released yesterday by the Commerce Department that showed the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace in a year. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, up from 1.3 percent in the prior three months.
    Household purchases, the biggest part of the economy, rose at a 2.4 percent pace, contributing 1.7 percentage points to growth.

    Less Confidence

    Purchases are climbing even as confidence sinks. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 51.1 in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest in a month, from minus 48.4 the prior period. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed had a negative opinion about the economy, the worst since April 2009 and one percentage point shy of a record high.


    "Will it work? I highly doubt it, but it does buy some time - and the markets were content. It appeared to take near-term implosion risk off the table, which set the stage for a huge short squeeze and destabilizing unwind of hedges across virtually all markets."

    Thursday, October 27, 2011


    NO guesswork here folks, the US $ has been taking it on the chin all month, down another 2% today, so anything priced in $'s will be going up, gas, food etc.

    Rally won't end until the excessive bearishness found at bottom in SEPT is vanguished.....might be closer than you think. One target we had was near 1300.

    Mutual Fund cash at one of lowest levels ever record, so who is funding the rally? LEVERAGE? The FED GAME continues as unemployment claims remain over 400,000. STock rally helped to goose GDP to a not so rousing 2.5%, that level was higher than previous qtr, but it doesn't create jobs.

    The EURO folk have agreed on another BAILOUT DEAL? Isn't that great news? Has what is broken been fixed?

    We can all hope the lows are in, we are healing? my nose says different. CONSUMER SENTIMENT sank again to one of its lowest readings, not indicative of a recovery by any measure.....housing prices continue to fall....honestly a great number of Americans might be asking where is the recovery.


    Monday, October 24, 2011


    "The monetary and fiscal “fixes” imposed by authorities around the globe since 2008 didn’t reduce the global financial system’s instability, they merely suppressed outward signs of instability. Beneath this tranquil surface, the “fixes” have greatly increased the global financial system’s instability. Like an apparently peaceful forest filled with dry deadwood, a single spark can ignite a new firestorm that will burn with greater ferocity and speed than the financial fire of 2008."


    I still think the analog with the 2008 rally right before the steep decline could be valid. A breakout of the then trading range preceeded the steep decline into 2009.


    Friday, October 21, 2011


    Makes it more likely we get at least a test of the 200 MA.


    Monday, October 17, 2011


    Price hits upper range of trading and we get an 87% down volume day. Players are buying the lower range, selling the upper range....there is no voting going on...that mechanism died years ago.



    OBAMA gest elected in 2008 and PBW hits its high near $27, Obama promised clean energy investments and emphasis, also mentioned it in State of teh UNion Address.....lot of good that did.


    Sunday, October 16, 2011


    Understanding Velocity
    velocity of money
    Rate at which money circulates, changes hands, or turns over in an economy in a given period. Higher velocity means the same quantity of money is used for a greater number of transactions and is related to the demand for money. It is measured as the ratio of GNP to the given stock of money. Also called velocity of circulation.
    Investopedia explains Velocity of MoneyVelocity is important for measuring the rate at which money in circulation is used for purchasing goods and services. This helps investors gauge how robust the economy is. It is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country's total supply of money.
    SIMPLY :"how quickly money moves around economy the rate at which money circulates in an economy"

    Read more:

    THE IMPLICATIONS OF WHAT MY CHARTS SHOW   **(below is what the FED has tried to do to stimulate economy and economic growth an historic RAPID rise in the money IN CIRCULATION)

    Declining Money Velocity and Its Implications

    Our economy has a severe circulatory problem. While the Fed has greatly increased the amount of available money in its efforts to restore economic growth (Figure 1), the rate at which money has been flowing through the economy — the “velocity” of money — has been plummeting (Figure 2).

    BUT the policies are NOT working, prices of things have gone higher, wages have not, employment is stagnant, pushes to cut govt spending will make it even worse. In the meatime, these FED policies of near 0 interest rates give savers a 0% retrun on money...and VERY LITTLE else to invest in except? THE RISKY STOCK MARKET!!! YOU GOT IT.....which the avg American has littel invested in (unlike the 1%) and their homes are still declining in value....(where most have or HAD investment)


    UNDERSTANDING INFLATION AND WEIMAR HISTORY   to access full article all you need do is fill in your name and email, no big deal, Mauldin a good read.

    Friday, October 14, 2011


    Divergence still in place, I am still expecting a retrace to begin shortly. SOme other divergences are beginning to appear, 120 SPX points since the new low was registered, go figure!

    This HISTORIC action in the form of unrelenting down and up action, 90% volume days will in the end cause another million or so investors to never put money into stocks again.

    1300 SPX or above is possible, at the break of 1100, BEARS were roaring, obviously TOO MUCH. The market basically breaks down into waves of sentiment, and when they reach the EURO SKY is falling, and the break BELOW the trading range.....eager bears, especially newbie bears were RIPE for the slaughter.

    What you see now is NOT a statement on the economy or earnings, it is a rush to cover by those short a bit too long, and it may have a bit more to go. Then there will be MANY long converts, and if it goes too far north, then you could see an EPIC decline swell when the gas is gone..especially when many see the smoke lift and the anemic FED FED party cannot go on forever.


    Thursday, October 13, 2011


    It has now started to decline in its trajectory


    Tricks or Treats?


    "Fitch may downgrade BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman

    Fitch eyes downgrades for Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, 5 big European banks "

    "NEW YORK (AP) -- Gap Inc. plans to close stores in the U.S., while expanding in China."

    "S&P downgrades Spain's debt rating on weak economy

    Standard & Poor's downgrades Spain's long-term debt rating, citing weak economy, bank risks"

    PARIS (AP) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised an "ambitious and humble" year as leader of the Group of 20 rich and developing economies, and he has a lot to be humble about.
    Despite a warning earlier this year from Christine Lagarde -- then his finance minister, now IMF chief -- that a failure to address global imbalances would "lead us straight into the wall of another debt crisis," that is exactly where the G-20 has wound up.
    Now the finance ministers and central bankers gathering for two days of talks here beginning Friday must explain how they let the global economy run straight towards the edge of a clearly marked cliff -- and what they can still do to stop it from falling over it.

    NOT if you keep your eyes open. What is our "OFFICIAL" unemployment rate 2.5 years into some kind of recovery? Anhistoric high of 9.1%

    OH yes THEY will keep trying to prop up the stock market, as the squueze continues on interest rates giving savers the shaft....and gd knows what else...



    Supply and demand play a part in determining the extent of the social mood and underlying strength in the points move.

    Triple digit gains brought about as much movement in these 2 quantifiers as today's lackluster day

    Of course GOOG always has the upside surprise, as it did AH.....I DO NOT think GOOG can pick up the mkt, if its time to correct....before maybe that one more push up EW seems to indicate before iii

    Yet we are entering a more bullish period approaching xmas. LOOKING for divergences.....could get one tomorrow with a push up and lackluster demand. Ticks say a move down should be upon us.


    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The city council of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, voted to file for bankruptcy protection Tuesday night.
    But the mayor of the state's capital, as well as the governor and a state senator, quickly called the action illegal. State law prohibits the city from filing for bankruptcy, they said.

    Nothing money printing and piling on more debt wont cure


    Wednesday, October 12, 2011


    We also have divergence of lower highs in the ticks with price still rising. Early OCT we had bullish divergence at lows blue circle, which led to this rally.

    DO you believe the economy is heading in the right direction?


    Tuesday, October 11, 2011

    We are all rooting for them and hoping they get (President) Obama and some other people moving in the right direction for a change,” he added.

    “The banking system has become a system, which is one large hedge fund supported by the free money of the depositors and by the taxpayers whenever it loses," Edelman said. "That was not the banking system of the 1980s."

    Monday, October 10, 2011


    Even a move to around 1230 is just more of what we've seen last few months.


    Low in yield as we entered 2009, that actually signalled a bottom was coming in the equity market, as the flow OUT of bonds helped fuel a cyclical bull market. yields topped in 2011 and 2001 has not been a great year for stocks. It has also been a record for volatility.

    Just recently yields bottomed BELOW 2009 levels, yet stock prices are nowhere near the lows of 2009. Has the 2001 LOW in yields marked a LOW for stocks?

    I'm just throwing that out there, just ONE measure, of course historically rates remain VERY LOW.

    Stocks tend to rise with a falling $, EURO ZONE supposedly all fixed now so they dumped the $, gold jumped, oil jumped, stocks jumped.

    EWT in many circles are calling this a Wave 2 move, which could rise above 1200 before ending helping to correct bearish sentiment.

    This time of year also sets up the usual gaming for the Santa end of year rally. I do NOT see the players accumulating here, neither demand, nor selleres have moved enough to signal a CHANGE of trend away from bear mkt may in the coming weeks.....I still see this move as a reaction to the new down trend, which will resume when this wave does its job


    Saturday, October 08, 2011


    What a wild few weeks? The most intense selling registered since the 1940's, followed by a jubilent rebound rally cut short with Friday's losses. Did the rebound from the NEW LOWS appear because of a deal in Europe, Greece news, jobs, consumer spending, or just oversold bounce?

    Because of the change in trend that appears to be in place from the April highs, with NO signs of ACCUMULATION but only of is more likely any rebound is just a reaction to the new primary trend decline than a new bull mkt, IMHO

    Stocks have risen because sentiment got too bearish, oversold condition, and there is always ebb and flow, but I had posted an article entitled "Bear MKT rules apply" and so if we look at what is going on keeping in mind the primary trend has chaned to DOWN.....that changes things.

    We could have begun a protracted fall rally, we usually get one into XMAS...the fabled "Santa Rally".....players position for this, and doing it EARLY when sentiment is LOW, is a good way to make good returns....then when the late comers, as they always do hop on, they will sell out their positions leaving thenew comers to take the hit...AGAIN.

    Nat GAs may be a play with weather turning soon....lots to think about. End of 3rd year of Pres cycle, 3rd years usually positive for market. I see 2012 possibly a tough year.

    With the 50 day moving avg below the 200, I have always found this good indicator to be more cautious and defensive. Selling intensity has swamped the buyers, and last weeks rally did not see sellers pull back much to indicate they are done.

    We still have persistent unemployed at 9.1% "officially", we know it is much higher....can companies continue to SURPRISE to the upside in earnings? How many companies like NFLX were buying their stock back at HUGELY INFLATED PRICES?

    The current climate has proven to be VERY stubborn and none of the fixes tried have been effective. Current FED policy is KILLING SAVERS and is an attempt to leave NOWHERE xcept stock mkt as a place to find returns....such a long lasting one sided approach....may have unintended disastrous consequences when THAT a gallup higher in interest rates.....let's hope that doesn't happen....but all bull runs do end...even falling rates (since Volker attacked inflation)

    "Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983.[12]
    Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well.

    As you can see....since 1981 then interest rates have been in a FALLING TREND 30 YEARS!!!



    "And it all seems to boil down to this: Credit cannot be stable within a backdrop of such extraordinary uncertainty. And, I would argue, no amount of central bank liquidity (“money”) and bank capital is going to engender sufficient certainty to stabilize global Credit, financial flows and asset markets. "

    Friday, October 07, 2011


    Jobs Report: Behind the Numbers- Daniel Gross, Y! Finance
    The metrics in the report, particularly from the household survey component, remain pathetic: an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent, 6.2 million people employed for more than 27 weeks, an employment-population ratio at an anemic 58.3 percent.

    "better than expected"  sure......Some segments are being percolated by historic low rates, but even worse than 2003-2007 the effect on avg American is miniscule and a jobless recovery it is.

    Under the conditions I montior, I cannot see this as a continuation of BULL MKT, but more a bounce in a new Bear Mkt, I am hoping I am wrong. But under the numbers, the hype and daily news related rallies is a whole heap of PAIN.


    Tuesday, October 04, 2011


    My trusty tick chart did spot the divergence and oversold bounce forming, and it turned out to be formidable. Here's the rally, all coming after 3pm!

    Stocks Stage Late Rally, Erasing Early Losses, Amid EU Bank Aid Plan Report- AP 

    And it came in the last hour of trading!? AS the EURO rose on speculation of addt'l banking measures, blah blah, US $ weakened all coordinated so to speak.

    DO you think also after 3 of last 4 trading days contained over 90% down volume, a bounce was near? of course, that's how it works, and shorts covering at close caused even further stampede.

    The market is SO volatile, this is not the playground for the avg Joe, or for most. LOW LOW LOW interest rates are sparking a surge of refinancing, could inject some consumer spending, is making some well positioned Mortgage companies and brokers some nice dough, but JOBS JOBS JOBS are what is needed to sustain any kind of recovery.

    FED BIG BAD BEN said "the slowdown was worse than we thought, the recovery weaker than we had hoped...." SO we will keep right on doing what we've been doing that isn't working....because of course it could be worse.

    THE WORLD is unwinding from years of abusive central bank behaviour and living beyond means...Even now, in the darkest hour, when all the tricks and gimmicks haven't worked, they are doing even more! Selling short term notes for longer dated ones.

    Just when the US lost its AAA rating, treasuries have had one its greatest quarters. What will come next? How far can the rally go? Did an important bottom form today?

    Now more than ever, technical analysis will play an important role, as the market heaves and ho's on every news report and Eurpoean save effort. careful out there.




    **click to enlarge
    3 of last 4 days have been 90% down days, but volume wasn't blow out type volume. Here's the issue, sentiment is very bearish, and EWT calling a wave 1 low setting up nice Wave 2 rally and a market wounded like this one, that doesn't rally could be setting up MUCH lower prices immediately before any sustainable rally can begin.

    I'm just not sure at this point. My feeling was when that SPX 1100 area broke down, prices would fall deep enough to allow a retest of that break in trading range. But as we feel pretty confident a NEW BEAR MKT is underway, the primary trend is DOWN, and rallies used for selling.

    I did my best to pre pare and warn my readers as to the potential dangers lurking. Even with this going on, I've tried to grow my other business, so I can't throw in long posts every day as before.....if you need to make living and survive, just keep plugging away giving it your best efforts.....the market action may be out of your hands, your life isn't.


    Sunday, October 02, 2011


     "When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?" - Keynes

    Arnold Kling and Megan McArdle have pulled a funny and embarrassing quote from Paul Krugman, published in a 2002 NYT column:
    The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance.To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

    Read more:

    "TESTING A THESIS" Doug Noland

    September 29 – Bloomberg (Joshua Zumbrun): “Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the central bank may be undermining its own credibility by pushing forward with monetary easing that will do little to boost growth. ‘The actions taken in August and September tend to undermine the Fed’s credibility by giving the impression that we think such policies can have a major impact on the speed of the recovery,’ Plosser said… ‘It is my assessment that they will not.’