Wednesday, September 28, 2011


By Dhanya Skariachan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Best Buy Co, the world's largest consumer electronics chain, will cut its hiring of temporary workers in the United States this holiday season by almost half compared with 2010.
The decision is further bad news for the U.S. economy and for the unemployed in particular. A quarter of the retailers surveyed by the Hay Group said they were hiring fewer seasonal workers this year and only 10 percent plan to hire more.
Best Buy is hiring only 15,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 29,000 last year, and is counting on permanent employees to work overtime to close the gap in terms of hours worked, Chief Executive Brian Dunn told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.
He said the retailer is not counting on any help from the economy this Christmas as it sees consumers staying cautious about spending on nonessential items.<<

In my own life and business, I go about my daily chores looking for new clients, taking care of existing ones, without a THOUGHT to the economy. But when it comes time for portfolio positioning, IMHO, MR CONSERVATIVE is sitting this period OUT.



Tuesday, September 27, 2011


Here is from a FED dissenter
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said he opposed the Fed's latest attempt to boost economic growth because he fears it won't work -- and it could scare consumers and squeeze bank earnings."

Volume SWELLS on the declines, diminishes on the "rallies". Still in a range of price, but again real signs of stock ACCUMULATION are not present, expanding volume NOT present.

The FED is AGAIN targeting asset prices or why would these insane men playing with fire trying to lower already insanely LOW long term interest rates.

What segment of economy needs lower than historic LOWS in interest rates? Retired folk? Savers? UHM....try to force people back into stocks? Wall Street.....aren't we tired of these games? ineffective policy?

The Federal Reserve acts independently of our government, but isn't it time for someone to speak OUT against these harmful policies? We can follow back all our recent bubbles and economic woes IMHO to interestrate policy, ALL controlled by the Federal Reserve.

I don't think the market is done to the downside. HERE is my thinking, after reviewing several EWT charters, I like Daneric's thinking. I can sum by saying I think we break down 1100 on the SPX and that is going to bring out of hibernation a lot of Johnny bear latelies. SOMEWHERE Under that level might be interesting place to buy, and position for Winter promised rally.

To see stocks run as headlines say from hope and fear of European debt defaaults or some supposed fix is amusing. The PLAYERS who have enough money, fire power are just buying 1100 and selling 1200 area...sooner or later one will break.

Go Rays



"The "Risk On" trade is back today sending stocks and commodities sharply higher, and the US 10-year Treasury yield back up towards 2%. Meanwhile, as of Monday's close the S&P 500 dividend yield remained higher than the 10-year T-note, a move seen only 20 times in the past 58 years on a quarterly basis according to S&P research. The phenomenon rewrites the rulebook for yield-seeking investors, as the broader stock market offers more than a traditional bond investment."


Saturday, September 24, 2011


....the more they remain the same. The FED announced Tuesday they had a NEW "TWIST" to energize the sitting down?  SELL short dated treasuries, BUY long dated ones!! YEAH! that's it's it. Lower long term rates from next to nothing to nothing. 10 year yields are already below 1.9% !!!

Record low mortgage rates haven't hurt the housing market, but how much more could already historic low rates improve the situation? I think you got your answer from the last few days market reaction. The Fed meeting and announcement preceded back to back 90% down volume days, the 2nd one increasing volume from heavy to blowout rising by some 44%....a strong opinion was registered by Mr Market.

Friday appeared to be a "turnaround" day with prices falling early, and we keep hearing about these smart guys running in to BUY THE BARGAINS....NO....the market short term oversold will get a pathetic bounce of pity before it heads lower once again.

One of the main differences is that we are seeing tell tale signs of DISTRIBUTION this time around, not signs of ACCUMULATION. SO I can safely say, there is pretty good chance the Aug lows break down, maybe next week. It's going to get even uglier in a hurry, IMHO.

HIGH unemployment (record actually for a supposed recovery) and business taxation uncertainty, does set stage for a sustainable recovery. What you get is lame congress, lame President and more of the same from those idiots and the FED, a real cast of ignorant characters that JUST DON'T GET IT!

If businesses see a climate of LOWER TAXATION, LOWER COST OF EMPLOYMENT and HEALTH CARE too.....they will act accordingly and expand...look ahead. Right now, what they see is chance of higher taxes and a government that keeps growing and running huge deficits with no real plan to change.

2 years of unemployment benefits have not been enough for a large group of unemployed, weeks to find a job is at an all time high....over 2 years into recovery...for many it has not felt like recovery.

Consumer Sentiment polls near the lows of crisis, never rose to even the worst it was after 911 !! very telling.

Gold and silver, oil all seemed to have popped, even if temporarily. The US $ has popped, but popped higher...we look that much better than Europe?

DO you ever wonder why Oil at near $140 got us $4 gas......and $80 OIL gets us near $4 gas?

What has helped me slightly, is that I am SO engrossed in running and growing my new business that I started, after 30 years involved in family business, that I don't have time to worry about economy and I am smart enough to NOT be exposed to stocks at this time. YES I AM 100% cash whoopie.

There ARE times not to sit around and take a 40% draw down lump!!! IF you can see it coming, IF you don't think the sky is falling and DO come back and buy low. you can't buy LOW if you sit like a squirrel with a nut and don't react....most will not.

It's taken me 20 years of study and PROOF to myself in how I avoided the bear markets that began in understand its time in the market that counts...EXCEPT when you should be out or super now IMHO

Hey, it's not for everyone, maybe sitting around for the 50% haircut is worth it for those who don't want to miss the rise. BUT, since 2000 LTBH strategy has returned 0%, losses even. You must be fluid, move to the hot sectors, like gold and commodities last 10 years. I don't know if thatrun is OVER, not with the growing new world populations CHina and India, BUT it appears to be taking a big pause and nasty correction has begun. I honestly don't know if this is the pause that refreshes between 2nd and final BLOWOFF stage for that sector.

The law of SUPPLY and DEMAND don't seem to favor sticking in toes just yet....if we watch closely, we won't have to guess when to hard.



..." It is not easy to envisage a scenario that would, at this point, reverse global risk aversion and de-leveraging. But, then again, most participants seem more fixated on areas of market technical support that could signal the rush of sideline cash into U.S. equities. Not the mood one would expect at an important market bottom."

Thursday, September 22, 2011


Today the market saw a SURGE in volume, and a 2nd consecutive 90% down volume day. This is not run of the mill bull mkt shake out, this you want to stay around and see your portfolio shrink like a scared turtle?

Does being diversified help? to some extent maybe, but when the baby flies by with the bath water....just like floats all boats.....a bear can sink all ships...NOWHERE TO HIDE.

I like to AVOID a bear puckering 40% draw down, call me crazy. AS 2009 showed, you CANNOT stay like a scared kitten forever, BEARS lay out true values....mkt got overvalued again. NO ONE on TV warned take your profits, be careful. NO all those jerks kept telling to keep buying.

The stench from the TV advice man fills your nostrils right through the ethernet....go ahead dip buyer, make my day.....stocks will go MUCH lower before this is all said and down IMHO.

Those FULLY invested have and will feel severe pain, IMHO YOU NEED CASH to buy do you do that if you NEVER COME OUT?



"Nowhere is this situation more egregious than at Netflix (NFLX), where the company bought back its own shares at ridiculously high prices. Over the last year and a half or so, Netflix has traded with a P/E of between 60 and 90. Despite this, those in charge thought it made sense to spend not some, but all of the corporation's earnings on share buybacks. In the last 1.5 years, Netflix has earned $290 million; it spent $305 million on buybacks over this same period!"

Or is this a story on how you can SCREW up a great dominant business? I canceled half my NFLX service when rate change was announced, so did anyone else I know and many exited RUMOR is buyout! haaaa as the prie is 1/3 almost what it was....shorts were WRONG until finally right.

TRANSPORTS are at NEW LOW for move, SPX 1100 is line drawn in sand.....FED says "significant risks to economy" so what will they do? they will sell short term treasuries andbuy longer dated one!!! to??? LOWER interest rates MORE????? a 4% mortgage not low enough? SAVERS? if they BENDOVER anymore they will break in half!

JOBS JOBS says Dem's? TAX TAX and spend on roads....bleep me!!! I HAVE been warning for months, there is AMPLE warning and proof....the ugly BEAR MKT has returned and that can't be good for stock values.....but great news for those who pared exposure and RAISED cash to buy at appropriate time some good long term values.

The avg dude will have sworn off stocks for a lifetime, just at the time maybe they are best values in lifetime, should this POS collapse....that's how it works don't make bottoms on make tops. You don't make tops on fear, you make bottoms....let us hope the bear doesn't want to revisit SPX lows of 666



"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The world's financial markets took a beating Thursday as investors saw signs of economic weakness around the globe.
Contributing to the losses were the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday warning of a "significant" downside risk to the U.S. economy, as well as reports from global bank HSBC showing contraction in the Chinese and eurozone manufacturing sectors."

Wednesday, September 21, 2011


Stocks sold off today with at least 88% of all volume down. After the Fed meeting it was announced another GREAT IDEA, hey let's take our maturing 3-6 month bonds and buy longer dated ones!!! THUS lowering interestrates from their already historic lows!!

Hey, this way NO ONE will make any yield at ANY maturity!@ ingenious. 10 yr bond yield slipped to 1.87%. 2 yr yields at 0.18%. 3 month 0.01% wow

Transports reacted violently to the FED decision and sold off over 5% ! only 60 pts from recent lows.

Stocks still in trading range until they aren't. Look forward to Santa rally right? LOOK we already have lowest rates in most recent history. Sales of homes are being made, lots are day this will be over..But IMHO we have well past peak profits and I think the market can go much lower.


Tuesday, September 20, 2011



The market continues to flounder, but underneath the characteristics are more closely aligned with DITSRIBUTION, not ACCUMULATION....and the chances are greater that when the market breaks it will be to the downside.

I have been SWAMPED with my other business, Im doing the best I can to keep up my blog. Maybe more short and sweet, but maybe for now that's the best for everyone....what more is there to say?
The 50 DMA is moving down and we get more and more into bear territory....where bad things happen....chart to follow

Sunday, September 18, 2011


The market since making its low on August 5th has had multiple 90% days and triple digit gains and losses and seemingly has no direction.

The bears will say distribution and the bulls will say accumulation is taking place. According to the data of supply and demand, it is more likely IMHO that the lows currently in place along with the inability to break out will get tested.

We are back to policies of fix the roads and bridges from Obama administration and claims it will ADD ONE MILLION JOBS??!! again!! how well did it work last time? and at 2 to 3 X the cost.

We need policies that will STIMULATE small business and investment. We need policies that will help grow good jobs and steady employment gains, we need lower taxes on businesses, but perhaps close some tax loopholes and slight increases on families over $250,000 and more so on dividends....the ones making hay on dividends don't need addt'l gov't asssistance...a MEASURED equal approach to working down the deficits and debt....any CUTS by the gov't will SLOW the economy down however.

We are at a crossroads, after all that has been done, the 0% interest rates, all the bailouts.....we are still stuck in the mud. This is NOT a NORMAL business/inventory cycle slowdown , this is a debt crisis and nothing will stop the march back to the mean.....historical norms....and the dealing with the debt binging of the past several DO eventually have to pay the piper....and UNWIND the excesses.

This is a powerful 60-70 year cycle forces at work, and it is TOO powerful for govt and FED policies to dismiss it. One can hope their policies have NOT made it worse and last longer!

WHO cares for the conservative and the SAVER? As these policies of ZIRP wreck havoc on investment and savings, it has helped to PROP UP the stock market and raise OTHER assets, mainly commodities. The end result of much higher commodity prices has made the position of the Consumer even more difficult.

The climate uncertain, polls show the approval rating for the President at the lowest levels and even lower for Congress where not even 20% feel they know their ass from a hole in the ground!

Consumer Sentiment readings are still 2 years after "RECOVERY" BELOW the lowest readings after 911. Not an end all to be all, but sentiment DOES effect spending habbits and investment decisions.

Friends, there is a BRIGHTER day in our future, but those charting the course may not have the visions to guide us there.

If the stock market spins its wheels at best, or crashes at worst, with 0% interest rates and longer term yields barely enough to pay for coffee, what is left for the avg Joe to do?


Saturday, September 10, 2011


"Liquidity-challenged global markets are convulsing through a problematic period of de-risking and de-leveraging, and once such a process commences it basically has to run its course. Efforts to intervene in the marketplace, as we’ve been witnessing, are likely to beget only greater uncertainty and instability. Fed take note."


First chart shows debt a s% of GDP up to 2005, not one politician or economists ever mentioned this relationship to anyone.

2nd chart shows current DELEVERAGING process inmotion, and yyes you are right, this hasn't occured in more than 70 years!

Let OBAMA make his senseless stump speaches onhis NEW STIM job creation plan....$200B is nothing...$trillions thrown at have done little except make things we all need cost more!!!

We are in a debt buuble burst K WINTER cycle.....and we are heading back to the norm causing lots of pain on the way....nothing can hold it back, only make it worse.


Friday, September 09, 2011


Japan economy shrank more than initial report

12 minutes ago
Japan's economy contracted in the April-June quarter at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, worse than the initial estimate, the government said Friday, underlining the damage from the March earthquake disaster.

There is an end to all this economic woes, but we are not in a normal inventory business cycle slowdown, we are in a debt binge deleveraging cycle that spanned deacdes in the making. Another gov't stimulus package wont make any difference.

$Trillions have been thrown and printed at the crisis and we still don;t have a REAL RECOVERY. This is the weakest statistical recovery on record. With the avg weeks needed to find a job still rising 2 years intot he supposed recovery....we have a ways to go, and IMHO there is great risk in being long the stock market.


Thursday, September 08, 2011

CRACK BABY ECONOMY. Financial Armageddon

Stocks slide after Bernanke offers no new stimulus- AP
Stocks closed sharply lower Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered no new insight into whether the central bank will act soon to prop up the economy.


Stocks rallied on WED because "German courts ruled it's OK to bail out Greece". Meanwhile back at the ranch, Small Business polls show 90% feel we've enterred another Recession.

I have not changed my stance that we are in a Bear mkt,


Monday, September 05, 2011

Sunday, September 04, 2011



How do you keep bidding up stocks when you continue to see proof that the economy which if NOT already contracting, is BARELY growing? ZERO jobs in Friday report sent stocks sprawling and the unemployment rate nearly 3 years into recovery stands stubbornly at 9.1%!

The gov't and FEd have thrown $TRILLIONS at the problem, and the situations has not improved. Proponents of these ineffective measures argue "it could have been worse". How do you move the houses, the demand of such could stabilize pricing and put in the bottom, when jobs are not being created to supply the investment needed?

And then there is confidence. Maybe you will go out and buy a dress, 3 for 1 at Joe Banks, dinner at Red Lobster, but you aren't going to replace that old dishwasher, or make a needed home improvement. Consumer confidence languishes near record lows. It IS at record lows for any recovery and so are many other stats including job creation.

Gold near $1,900 and a 10 yr not barely above 2%, highlight the problems. Should the gov't significantly CUT BACK spending, the economy could grind to a halt and even more pain felt.

There is tons of backed up demand, and when a REAL BOTTOM is put in, a long real recovery can begin. First REAL ISSUES must be dealt with.

You cannot just print money and stimulate, spend your way to prosperity, the DEBT must be A) inflated away or B) defaulted. I left out C) paid back.....what we get from Politico's who all want re-election is EXTEND and PRETEND....this ugly can can't be kicked down the road anymore.

Our debt is spiraling out of control. New revenues or taxes are a done deal, along with spending cuts. Buy I think the bald heads are playing games and maybe all they end up doing is SLOWING growth of spending.

Record debt and need for floating this funding and YET long term interest rates at near or at record and treasuries enterring a bubble....all bubbles pop and end in pain.

CLEAR direction, LOW taxes and incentives to small business are just a piece of how to get our economy to grow again,but I fear until we hit ROCK BOTTOM....wherever that may be.....we will continue to slug along and leave Americans wondering where is the recovery for them and the jobs.....and when they LOSE hope......what then? 20% of Americans rely on gov't assistance....that is IN consumer spending and economy.


Saturday, September 03, 2011


Recovering from kidney stone!!! and no power for 4 days I am working on some commentary and will post before Monday, stay safe



"Both the Fed and ECB are at respective policy crossroads and markets have ample reason to fret. Confidence is wearing thin."

Friday, September 02, 2011


Slower jobs recovery
White House's budget experts have grown less optimistic about economic growth and jobs. More
Most Americans think the economy is in another recession, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. One-third of those surveyed think it's serious. More

Downgrade revision of July jobs report, August job report was dismal not since 1945 have ZERO jobs been created in a month