Saturday, August 30, 2008


Bank of China has cut its portfolio of securities issued or guaranteed by troubled US mortgage financiers Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac by a quarter since the end of June.
The sale by China's fourth largest commercial bank, which reduced its holdings of so-called agency debt by $4.6bn, is a sign of nervousness among foreign buyers of Fannie and Freddie's bonds and guaranteed securities.

Foreign investors have been a mainstay of the market for such debt, but uncertainty over the mortgage financiers' capital positions and the timing and structure ofa potential government rescue has made some investors reassess their exposures. Asian investors in particular have become net sellers of agency debt, said analysts.;_ylt=AinBtNkIPpOJIYffRdz9UiymOrgF bristish economy in WORST downturn in 60 YEARS?

Talked to a MAC mechanic tonight....they arent selling and they arent getting the volume in repair work.......... (truckers)


Returning back to my initial paragraph, these days the economy and markets don’t appear all that bad - certainly nothing as nasty as we dour prognosticators have been forecasting. I’ll warn, however, that there are some very dangerous “Ponzi Finance” Dynamics Still very much At Play. The most obvious resides with the GSEs. And there are closely related Bubbles throughout the agency and Treasury bond arena. Meanwhile, a view has gained adherents that the U.S. economy is actually in much better shape than Europe and elsewhere. The reality that Europe is not buoyed by their own government-sponsored mortgage behemoths and that their economies are more manufacturing based (and thus vulnerable to cyclical downturns) are only short-term relative disadvantages


My BMI sits at 62.12 this end of week period, so IMHO no Bear Bottom as yet.

Now , while observing my indicator this AM, I spotted a pattern I think will repeat, and I will be on HIGH ALERT, come 1st quarter in 2009 for a BULL SET UP!

IMHO that would coincide with euphoria over the elction, and change in party President to DEMOCRATIC OBAMA and friends.....just my gut.

I am looking at a MACD that is DEEP DEEP oversold, but no bottom I think....


PLEASE, watch the utube video and tell me you would vote for this village idiot


Friday, August 29, 2008


Amusing fellow but truth about make believe GDP and how it got hyped on CNBC


SDS Part 2

I like to use trend lines to set up my trades, this is the chart I should have used (I usually like to look at a few time frames) but running out of time I used recapturing $64.50 price area of my "wedgie" good enough. I set my stop a $1 below entry, that trade is still on.



I am LONG from $64.80, I could have timed trade better, I will confir with my 15 minute chart next time, back into wdgie are above $64.50 was MY signal, I have TIGHT stop on this one, small feeler position....MAY Hold thru weekend.....but with GUSTAV and traders back after long gut says down but I am prepared either way.

BULK staying IN CASH....more SAT afternon



In general, I still see pattern of elevated and rising volatility, and my measures of bear mkt action say brother beware.

My GUT says this rally is near an end, but I have slim looks on my SDS chart to buy, I would maybe be looking for $54.50 to be recaptured from my wedgie breakdown which was a GREAT chart because it kept me OUT of SDS during this rally, so I found it helpful to give it several different looks on my charts, the daily caught that one.

Financials have rallied nicely, but I don't buy it, call be sceptical.

One of my measures says rally could end today so I am on HIGH alert, remember LIGHT VOLUME INCREASES ACTION......BIG BOYS come back next week.

Economy SUCKS big time I know it, you know it, so what's with large surprise on GDP? STIM checks? Exports? I smell a rat


Wednesday, August 27, 2008


The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: It is an old wisdom that the scale of the boom excesses essentially determines the severity of the following process of economic and financial readjustment. But what will the coming correction hold for the U.S. economy after the fall of the housing market? Dr. Richebächer explores...

about Dr Richebacher's death in 2007,+09:54+AM



Dr. Kurt Richebächer

The encouragement of mere consumption is no benefit to commerce because the difficulty lies in supplying the means, not in stimulating the desire for consumption; and production alone furnishes those means. Thus, it is the aim of good government to stimulate production, of bad government to encourage consumption.

- Jean-Baptiste Say, A Treatise on Political Economy, 1803

From discussing politics back to discussing economics. Just as before, though, it remains a dialogue among the deaf. The great majority of economists has its eyes stubbornly focused on apparently positive features for the U.S. economy, like the sharp fall in the oil price, abundantly available liquidity, tame inflation, low and falling interest rates and strong profits.

A minority of economists, in contrast, keeps just as stubbornly stressing that the economy's famous gross imbalances and structural distortions and the associated debt explosion are inexorably undermining economic growth. In this view, the ongoing housing downturn will finally abort U.S. growth and drive the economy into recession, with major adverse spillover effects on consumer borrowing and spending.

Generally, however, optimism distinctly prevails about the U.S. economy. It is not the old buoyant optimism. Yet it is optimism in the sense that some true malaise, like a crash in the asset markets and a recession, let alone a deep and prolonged recession, are absolutely out of the question. Thanks to its superior dynamism and flexibility, the U.S. economy has time and again bounced back smartly from periodic downshifts, and so it will again.

Let us start with the hard facts. For six, seven and more months, U.S. economic data are overwhelmingly surprising on the downside, and moreover, the surprises have been going from bad to worse. Real GDP has successively fallen from 5.6% in the first quarter of 2006 to 2.5% in the second and 1.6% in the third.

That's bad enough, but what rescued the latter quarter from total disaster was a rather quixotic statistical event. While auto firms slashed their output, it soared in the real GDP account, owing to sharp price cuts on gas guzzlers. In this way, falling vehicle output contributed fully 0.72 percentage points to third-quarter real GDP growth, after subtracting 0.31 percentage points. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4% in the prior quarter.

It is an old wisdom that the scale of the boom excesses essentially determines the severity of the following process of economic and financial readjustment. It has been comfortingly argued that the U.S. housing boom of the last few years has been less fierce than prior booms, which all ended without steep price declines.

Certainly, there are different possibilities of measurement. For us, the most important, and also easiest, measure of excess is the associated credit expansion. The use of credit in the wake of this housing bubble has been simply bizarre, outpacing all past experiences by far. Over decades until 2000, outstanding total mortgages accumulated to $4.8 trillion. In the second quarter of 2006, they amounted to $9.3 trillion. Mortgage growth over the last five years was almost equivalent to its growth over the prior five decades.

The second highly important point to see is that this housing boom was the first one in the United States to impact the economy at a vastly broader scale than just the building activity. As private households, using the rising house prices as collateral for mortgage equity withdrawals, stampeded as never before into debt to finance additionally other kinds of spending, the whole economy developed into an outright bubble economy.

New single-family homes and multifamily homes rose in 2005 from a trough of fewer than 1.5 million units in recession year 2001 to a postwar high of 2.2 million units. Over the same period, the constant quality price index for new homes rose 30%, and the purchase-only price index of existing homes published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) rose by 50%.

Boosting the net worth and the borrowing facilities of private households, this drove consumer spending to persistent considerable excess over income growth. In correlation, personal saving plummeted into negative territory, unprecedented for an industrialized economy.

It was a boom that plainly went to extraordinary excess in various ways. As a rule, this suggests a very severe aftermath of painful corrections. The first effects of the housing bust have definitely been bigger and more abrupt than most experts had expected. Yet hopes are riding high for a benign adjustment. To quote Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn from a recent speech: "The economy will grow at a moderate pace for a while, somewhat below the rate of increase of its potential, and then growth will begin to strengthen."

Among his comforting arguments were first, the overbuilding in 2004 and 2005 was small enough to be worked off over coming quarters; second, this situation stands in sharp contrast to some past downturns in the housing markets that followed actions by the Federal Reserve to tighten credit conditions; third, as the inventory overhang in residential building and automobiles are worked off, economic growth should pick up again.

Mr. Kohn does not even mention that through the cash-out refinancing boom, this housing bubble had unprecedented spillover effects on the economy as a whole. In 2005, private households raised $1,080 billion through mortgages. Of this amount, they only spent $95.1 billion on higher residential building. Spending on goods and services rose altogether by $539.9 billion, against an increase in disposable income by $354.5 billion. In other words, about one-third of the increase in consumer spending depended on mortgage borrowing.

Actually, it strikes us how promptly the change in the housing market has impacted mortgage borrowing. It peaked in the third quarter of 2005 at $1,225.9 billion at annual rate. Falling steadily, it was down to $819.6 billion in the second quarter of 2006. This sharp decline was, however, to a small part offset by higher consumer credit.

Mr. Kohn stresses that monetary conditions remain quite supportive of borrowing and spending. Clearly, interest rates are so low that they exert zero restraint on borrowing. But more importantly, falling house prices no longer remain supportive for such borrowing. Remarkably, the sharp decline in new mortgage borrowing since the third quarter of last year has occurred even though house prices were still rising, albeit at sharply slowing rates. As the price climate is sure to deteriorate for some time to come, it seems a reasonable assumption that this initial sharp slowdown in mortgage borrowing has some way to go yet.

While this suggests further sharp falls in house prices, this may well take some time to materialize, because the housing market is notoriously sluggish in its reactions. In contrast to financial markets, its initial response to a change in the market situation is not in price, but on how long unsold homes stay on the market until the prices are lowered to realize desired sales. Sellers tend to resist downward price adjustments as long as they can. Instead, the market becomes illiquid. For sure, lenders will notice and adjust their lending conditions.

Mr. Kohn also takes comfort from the fact that the present housing downturn, in sharp contrast to past ones, is not caused by credit tightening. As he rightly stresses, "The Federal Reserve has returned short-term interest rates only to more normal levels and long-term rates are unusually low relative to those short-term rates." We think, though, that he is drawing a totally false conclusion. All downturns caused by tight money were followed by vigorous recoveries. A downturn happening despite low interest rates and loose money seems to us the most worrying kind.

15 December 2006

Dr Kurt Richebächer
for The Daily Reckoning


: imho1999
27 Aug 2008, 03:18 AM EDT
Msg. 1056095 of 1056100(This msg. is a reply to 1056091 by SteveZ1.)Jump to msg. #
SteveZ1... I was on the QQQ board in 2000 (imho moniker) when you told us about your dad and the "condominium guys" that had thrown in the towel and were selling stock of solid companies (in the case of your dad a portfolio you had careful selected for him) to buy the likes of JDSU. You made the greatest call of all time, in my book... you said when guys like my dad are buying JDSU, there's no one else to buy... the top is in. I'll never forget that... great insight.
: SteveZ1
27 Aug 2008, 12:46 AM EDT
Msg. 1056091 of 1056100(This msg. is a reply to 1056089 by tradeforkeeps.)Jump to msg. #
Yup, with Maria on CNBC repeating the words "this market is in rally mode" several times each and every day.. By late 1999 investors were selling the Dow stocks to buy fast moving tech and internet stocks..That was the beginning of the end of market sanity.... In the week of April 3rd 2000 Newsweek featured the bull market on it's cover while my Dad sold JNJ for JDSU the prior week. On April 3rd one day after the Businessweek release the Nasdaq fell 359 points in one day,. The last greater fool was finally in..:)

By: SteveZ1
27 Aug 2008, 07:30 AM EDT
Msg. 1056098 of 1056100(This msg. is a reply to 1056095 by imho1999.)Jump to msg. #
Imho, some things just hit you smack in the face and should ring a bell. It's always interesting how so few see it and allow wishful thinking to get the best of them when they enter the market. That was some bubble, the greatest bubble of all time even surpassing Japan's.. It was hard not to make money trading like an idiot and thinking like a fool...That was the sad or perhaps funny part.. Went "Joe Blow" started to call Buffett a stock market has-been one should have taken notice too. By the time the bubble ended commercial's went from you owning an island from investing to your broker owning a large home thanks to your trading costs from too much day trading... :)



QUITE THE DECLINE, bear mkt fodder....think a bounce here , but I dont like playing storm news, looking to SDS on new signal, made 2 pts last trade.
Obviously, I changed look of my blog, it does better job showing links and I like that it has more personality!
ONE DAY, when I retire from VP day job, I will have a sub service where I will share ALL my TA and stock picks with my subs, and it will be VERY day, for now all I ever say and when I said it is on record, and so far it ain't half bad!
I pay for all the services , I do all the reading, I fish for all the stories and provide links, I save tons of time for my readers and I HAVE kept them OUT of harms way should anyone have taken 2 minutes to consider what is can go to financial advisor etc and maybe have some ammo for questions to make sure they are planning your future to suit your needs.
The market ALWAYS goes up, except when it goes down.


FDIC to consider tapping Treasury to shore up funding needs
By Chris Oliver

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering a plan to borrow funds from the U.S. Treasury Department, as its seeks to shore up its finances amid an expected wave of bank failures, according to a published report Tuesday. Funds borrowed from the Treasury would used to cover short-term cash-flow needs related to reimbursing depositors in the aftermath of bank failure, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing comments by FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. The report said the borrowed funds would be repaid once assets from the failed bank are sold.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008


FDIC: 117 troubled banks, highest level since 2003Tuesday August 26, 4:03 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer

FDIC: troubled banks highest in 5 years; bank profits dropped by 86 percent in second quarter

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of troubled U.S. banks leaped to the highest level in about five years and bank profits plunged by 86 percent in the second quarter, as slumps in the housing and credit markets continued.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data released Tuesday show 117 banks and thrifts were considered to be in trouble in the second quarter, up from 90 in the prior quarter and the biggest tally since mid-2003.
The FDIC also said that federally-insured banks and savings institutions earned $5 billion in the April-June period, down from $36.8 billion a year earlier. The roughly 8,500 banks and thrifts also set aside a record $50.2 billion to cover losses from soured mortgages and other loans in the second quarter.
"Quite frankly, the results were pretty dismal," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said at a news conference, but they were not surprising given the housing slump, a worsening economy, and disruptions in financial and credit markets.
The majority of U.S. banks "will be able to weather" the economic and housing storms, with 98 percent of them still holding adequate capital by the regulators' standards, Bair said.
Total assets of troubled banks jumped from $26 billion to $78 billion in the second quarter, the FDIC said, with $32 billion of the increase coming from IndyMac Bank, which failed in July -- the biggest regulated thrift to fail in the United States.
"More banks will come on the (troubled) list as credit problems worsen," Bair said. "Assets of problem institutions also will continue to rise."
Nine FDIC-insured banks have failed so far this year, compared with three in all of 2007. More banks are in danger of collapsing this year, Bair and other FDIC officials said, and they expect turbulence in the banking industry to continue well into next year.
IndyMac's failure and others in the quarter reduced the federal deposit insurance fund from $53 billion to $45 billion. Bair said the agency will raise insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its reserve fund and bolster depositors' confidence.
The $50.2 billion set aside to cover loan losses in the April-June period was four times the $11.4 billion the banking industry salted away a year earlier. Nearly a third of the industry's net operating revenue went into building up reserves against losses in the latest quarter, according to the FDIC.
Except for the fourth quarter of 2007, the earnings reported Tuesday were the lowest for the banking industry since the final quarter of 1991, the agency said.
Concern has been growing over the solvency of some banks amid the housing slump and the steep slide in the mortgage market. The pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures have been battering banks of all sizes nationwide.
The FDIC has been keeping an especially close eye on banks and thrifts with high levels of exposure to the riskiest borrowers and markets, agency officials say, including subprime mortgages and construction loans in overbuilt areas.
Another area of potential concern: banks' holdings of preferred stock of troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A government rescue of the companies, whose share prices have rebounded a bit this week after plummeting recently as they struggle with billions of dollars in losses from bad mortgages, could be costly for scores of banks that hold billions in their preferred shares.
"We're closely monitoring that situation," Bair said.
The FDIC said troubled assets -- loans that are 90 or more days past due -- continued to rise in the second quarter, jumping by $26.7 billion, or 19.6 percent, over the first quarter. It was the first time since 1993 that the percentage of total loans that were troubled broke 2 percent, at 2.04 percent.
The agency doesn't disclose the names of institutions on its internal list of troubled banks. On average, 13 percent of banks that make the list fail.
Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac was taken over by the FDIC on July 11 with about $32 billion in assets and deposits of $19 billion. It was the second-largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, after Continental Illinois National Bank in 1984.

Sunday, August 24, 2008


Last weeks DOug Noland, brilliant

"Wall Street and global speculator community travails are today at the heart of Acute Monetary Disorder. Global pricing mechanisms have turned dysfunctional. Crude oil, the most important commodity in the world, now sees its price fluctuate 30% over a few short weeks – to the upside and then to the downside. Currency values have become similarly unhinged. At the same time, liquidity conditions throughout the global debt markets have turned quite spotty at best. All these factors are working corrosively on the global economy.

The consensus view holds that the Fed should maintain today’s (grossly inequitable) negative real interest rates indefinitely. This, as the thinking goes, is how the financial sector will repair itself. Everything will then return to normal - eventually. Besides, inflation’s won’t be much of an issue. I contend that global financial and economic systems will not begin to “normalize” until this massive global pool of speculative finance deflates. Speculators have for some time been the marginal price setters for global securities, energy, commodities and many other asset markets. This is a precarious dynamic, especially considering that large numbers of speculators are impaired and will now be fighting to save their businesses. Things both financial and economic have become hopelessly unstable. And this Dysfunctional Pricing Backdrop has become the major impediment to unavoidable U.S. and global economic adjustment".

Saturday, August 23, 2008

KONDRATIEFF WINTER IS HERE? I've seen some of these charts elsewhere but this is great for those wanting more understanding of this long cycle wave which points to DEFLATION as avery real possibility.



Barack Obama says Joe Biden is ready to step in as president. He's not bad in the role of attack dog, either, wasting no time gnawing at GOP rival John McCain.
"He will have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at" when considering his own economic future, Biden said — a blistering reference to McCain's embarrassing admission, particularly during a period of financial turmoil, that he didn't know how many homes he and his ultra-wealthy wife own.

**But what will the country do as he takes his afternoon naps?

Checks and balances should keep things from getting REP saved me from the got me.

Let's see now, how would I have rather had $1T we wasted in IRAQ put into this country to solve almost any need this country had from better pay to our soldiers and care, better pay to those who protect us and educate us.... help to minorities for higher education and rebuilding our CITY school system, oney for infrastructure like bridges and power plants and fund alternative energy research......

Well, maybe the CHINESE can lend it to us?


2004 Irish TV interview with George W. Bush


More on the same

Black Star slant

Is this shaping up to be THE important election of our time?

I THINK it's time to turn America around

MCCAIN will need help speaking?



click to enlarge any chart
If I was counting, my GUESS is we have seen WAVE #1 down


60% Upside volume on FRI 200 pt romp, I am thinking an END to current rally could come any day.

I have "feeler" trade in on SDS I paid $64.58, as of FRI close, I am using stop at $64.25.....if this trade doesn't work out I may stand aside again or go long into a test on underside of my trend line.....I may lists my trades from time to time and then Im on record for these trades, in NO way am I suggesting anyone else follow, I am trying to get my trading mojo back in to gear. I had never meant my site to be stock pickers site, my focus is of course mainly on the economics and TA of the markets struggle at X's not understanding but playing the swings I might go into greater detail at some time, as I think many others go thru similar situations and emotions.
KEY for me is to control psychological side, take my trades when MY signals tell me to, use stops to LIMIT losses, and I think if correct the winners will swamp the losers if allowed to run their course, and this would be near impossible for me had it not been almost 10 years of STUDY and goal is to share and hope I help some in my efforts. In the end we all need to be free thinkers.

For the bulk of my money I am waiting for a NEW BULL MKT SIGNAL....of which I have none....all IMHO of course.

For those tracking, my BBI is at 68.7- with previous move's high at 78.54 THERE was a 20/50 EMA Bear cross registered as we enterred 2008, last cross (Bullish) was mid 2003.
Last BOTOM call was OCT 2002 with a low reading of 20.54 (understand the past may NOT repeat but my inidcator has nice track record)

VIX has been in sideways movement and IMHO has not peaked enough to show a bottom.

Bear markets are meant to be correcting mechanism, bringing many things from excess to the norm.....and my belief is that this is we get STRONG PRES CYCLE MOVE?....could be nice move but think it could be premature here......hope all have stayed safe from this nasty correction hitting th elikes of BIll MIller and LEgg \VAlue Trust hard...have great weekend.

My use of "POWER" to describe a market move has been requested I use another term so when I talk about the STRENGTH of a move UNDERLYING the numbers I am meaning INTENSITY.....

I am also done discussing my political opinions with previous "A" time to move on, as I said anyone saying I am not a CARD CARRYING REPUBLICAN is a liar and hasnt seen my wallet....anyone living in MD and knowing our Current DEM Gov would understand my fleeing the party

I am PRO BIZ LOW TAXES for BIZ, WE CREATE THE JOBS!!!! take TOO much from us we CANNOT INVEST IN OUR COMPANIES which WOULD CREATE JOBS......those thinking TAXXING US more is good idea dont know JACK S!!! it will actually CURB spending etc which in turn LOWERS TAX REVENUE!!!! AKA SMOKERS TAXES...reduced revenues.

HOUSING BUBBLE a DEM and REP PHENOM more so a FED PHENOM is now SUCKING DRY the coffers.

GIVE ANY POLITICIAN more tax money they will spend more and then ask for more of which they will spend that too....but I digress.

Could I VOTE for OBAMMA? boy I dont know....but I cannot stand McCain...oh my check BOX NONE OF ABOVE!


Friday, August 22, 2008


ReutersMoody's cuts Fannie, Freddie preferred stock rating
Friday August 22, 11:49 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its ratings on the preferred stock of Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) on concern that market turmoil has hurt their access to capital.

The rating company also slashed a rating that suggests a greater likelihood the mortgage finance giants will require "extraordinary financial assistance" from the government or shareholders.

Moody's lowered the preferred stock ratings on the companies to "Baa3" from "A1," and the bank financial strength rating to "D-plus" from "B-minus," it said in a statement.

Investors have pummeled common and preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the past two months as speculation grew that the pace of losses on their mortgage holdings and guarantees is quickly eroding their capital. Many analysts expect the government will have to exercise its new abilities to recapitalize the companies, effectively "nationalizing" them.

"Given recent market movement, Moody's believes these firms currently have limited access to common and preferred equity capital at economically attractive terms," Moody's analysts said, of the bank financial strength rating downgrade.

Moody's added that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are restricted in their ability to support the housing market, which is in its worst downturn since the 1930s.

Moody's affirmed the companies' "Aaa" senior debt ratings, and the "Aa2" rating on their subordinated debt.

Senior and subordinated debt both benefit from implicit "systemic" support of the companies given their central role to the mortgage and housing markets. However, Moody's downgraded the outlook on subordinated issues to "negative" from "stable."

Subordinated debt yield spread premiums widened sharply on Monday after a newspaper report suggested a government bailout for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was imminent, and that would put subordinated debt at risk. The spreads have since narrowed.
(Reporting by Al Yoon; Editing by Tom Hals)

MKT UPDATE MKT back near its highs but I am showing UP volume has come down considerably telling me the mkt has gotten even more it again tries to break out....and its news driven.

WHen the BUYERS break out......we are waiting.....we have been told FNM and FRE will be BACKSTOPPED not allowed to be taken DOWN......LEH buyout? rumor? the carnage I dont think its over...



Ron Insana's Hedge Fund Closure a Cautionary Tale

Posted Aug 22, 2008 12:09pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers

Related: ^GSPC

Hedge funds used to be seen as a license to print money, but 2008 is shaping up to be the year the bubble burst. Earlier this month, former CNBC anchor Ron Insana folded Insana Capital Partners, the hedge fund he launched in 2006, while superstar investor Dan Benton announced that he's shuttering his $2 billion hedge fund Andor Capital Management in October.


"Worries about the embattled Lehman re-emerged this week as analysts lowered their estimates for the investment bank and forecast large additional write-downs. However, a Ladenburg Thalmann analyst upgrade on Lehman to "buy" helped stocks finish mixed on Thursday; he said he believed Lehman has become a hostile takeover candidate.
And on Friday, after the previous day's media reports that discussions between Lehman and a group of Korean banks had fallen through, another media report emerged that Korea Development Bank is considering buying the company. Lehman rose $1.83, or 13 percent, "

SDS has hit an uptrend line some of my friends and I it reacts around $64.50 will be I post it has given way......I am monitoring to see if it can recapture.....77% up volume not bad...but stocks moving on LEH "rumors" and hope (battered financials) is not the stuff IMHO IT rallies are made....we'll see

Been waiting for ADJ money base....not up on FED site yet



I may offend some readers when I stray "off course"? but once in awhile I feel the need to speak out and my hope is that I lit some spark.....agree or not.

My main goal is my discussions on the economy and markets, and even if my detractors come back almost daily....then I did something right, my posting stand for themselves and my timelines for when I sent out the warning flares.

I cannot think for anyone, nor tell you WHAT to do, the real challenge is to want to think for yourselves and open your mind to something other than perhaps LTBH.



Look for market to try and push ahead, Big Ben B on the mound or hill....speaking...BFD! If an under $5 FNM and FRE (loss of $100B mkt cap) and the sucking sound of deflationary pressures can be silenced by the mere few sentences from one actually responsable for the mess in the first place, it will be an unfounded rally which will be when it has run its course completely retraced IMHO


Thursday, August 21, 2008

Wednesday, August 20, 2008


The Constitution and Foreign Policy
Future of Freedom Foundationby Bart Frazier

Protecting the country from invasion and securing individual rights are two of the vital functions of the federal government. At the same time the government is the greatest threat to our freedom. This was the subject of FFF's June conference, "Restoring the Republic: Foreign Policy and Civil Liberties." An underlying theme, touched on by every one of the speakers, was the relationship between the state and the individual, for it is the individual who ultimately feels the effects of the government policies. For Americans, the rulebook for this relationship is the Constitution.
n the United States, the Constitution is the primary connection between the individual and the state. It is the law of the land and the document that trumps all others when determining what the state may and may not do.

The Constitution was designed to protect us, the people, from government. It is the government, however, that has advanced an overactive foreign policy for the past several decades, and it is the American people who now feel the adverse effects of the resulting blowback. It is the government that violates civil liberties, and it is the individual who feels the effects of government surveillance, detention, and torture.

The relationship between the individual and the state is a problem that is as old as history itself. Governments have been abusing and killing their citizens since men began to rule over other men. R.J. Rummel, a professor of political science at the University of Hawaii, estimates that between war, genocide, state-induced famines, and the like, governments across the globe were responsible for the deaths of more than 262 million people in the 20th century alone. As Rummel states, if all of those people were laid head to toe, they would circle the Earth ten times. If the state's treatment of the individual had to be described in one word, it undoubtedly would be "violence."
This leaves us, the individuals, with a conundrum; we want the state to protect us from invasion, theft, and murder, but we don't want it killing us or sending us to occupy another country to be killed by others.
That is a dilemma that the U.S. Constitution was devised to address.
How is the Constitution to do that? In a nutshell, the Constitution formed a national government that provided for the common defense while simultaneously protecting the individual from that very government it had brought into existence. It was acknowledged that individual rights, or natural rights, precede the existence of government and are inherent. Any government action that violated those rights was illegitimate.

**BUSH has SQUANDERED life and $1T....while bringing down our currency....and bringing up CHINA as a world power...well done!



In 2003 one can SEE THE FLOW IS UP!!! Now from 2007 TOP we see the river flow is sense in fighting when we go long and it isnt long an inverse....we understand its against the FLOW....the avg investors cannot even find the river let alone kayak down or up one......WE have the advantage my friends... complete article from Van Thorpe.

Buy High, Sell Low?

One of the oldest adages in market psychology is "Don't be afraid to buy high and sell low." Let's analyze what that means. If the market price is high, then the market is moving up. Those who are afraid to buy because the market is too high are fighting the flow of the river. It is possible the river may change direction, but you cannot predict if it will by determining how long it has been flowing in a particular direction. It may continue in the same direction for an unspecified length of time. Then again, if the market price is down, it also indicates the direction of the flow of the river. Those who are afraid to sell, once again, are fighting the flow.

Why do traders resist the flow of the markets? They do so because they play psychological games with the market. The most common game involves not being willing to give up what you perceive to be control, the need to be right, although you have no control over the market flow.
When you are struggling with the market, the struggle becomes all consuming. You don't realize that you are struggling with the market. Instead, you find yourself always looking for some solution to overcome the struggle.

The struggle obscures the obvious solution: Letting go.

**Now not all segments bottom at the same time, look how well FNM and FRE have done with FED backstopping? and mortgage rates have much control of the situation then does the FED REALLY HAVE? Implications of a SECULAR BEAR MKT another good read.


Tuesday, August 19, 2008


If you have ever heard "gaps usually get filled" maybe this is very good example.
Falling from $18 to $13 left HOLE as you can see, not an orderly zig zag move but an ubrupt one that left $18 in the can see GAP, open are on chart.....then rise from $13 to almost $18....for most part filling GAP or IN where prices were missed on gapper down.
That accomplished......prices have moved back down.....that would have been a nice play if managed properly....even if didnt work out, one could have enterred on higher low and used previous low as stop loss....with exit strategy perhaps the filling of gap, once done taken profits.
Just my 2 cents on the popular talk about gaps....and perhaps one example.
DOW under pressure today, what evidence of improving housing or economy is evident?

Sunday, August 17, 2008


Burst Bubble: Energy or Speculator?

Here’s how I see it. Many are rejoicing the bursting of the energy/commodities Bubble. Rapidly declining oil and resource prices are now expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, while bolstering household purchasing power. There’ll be no pressure on the Fed to raise rates, while their global central bank compatriots can soon begin cutting. The consensus view is that this is bullish for the U.S. economy and stock market and, if nothing else, market action did take attention away from troubling financial and economic news.

I am not one to easily dismiss notions of bursting Bubbles, and perhaps there is something to the energy bust thesis. I’m just skeptical of the idea that a slumping global economy is behind recent stunning price declines. Examining the global market backdrop, I sense different dynamics at play – important dynamics. And I tend to believe rapidly retreating commodities markets should be viewed in the context of a Bursting Leveraged Speculating Community Bubble.

The leveraged speculators have struggled since this year’s initial trading sessions. “Quant” and “market neutral” strategies in particular have foundered, although wild market volatility, illiquidity, and weak global securities markets have been an impediment for virtually all strategies. The hedge fund industry has been trying to adapt to tighter Credit conditions from the Wall Street firms and generally less liquid markets. Overall, leveraged strategies have been problematic, whether the underlying positions were in residential mortgages, commercial mortgages or corporate loans. The easy days of leveraged “spread trades” (“borrow cheap and lend dear”) quickly became quite difficult. And the easy returns in emerging markets turned abruptly into painful losses. Overall, global equities have performed quite poorly and global bonds somewhat poorly. Not many things have performed well and, worse yet, various trades that were supposed to offer diversification all became too tightly correlated.

Crude ended the first half at $140. Major commodities indices concluded June at record highs – sporting spectacular y-t-d gains. There’s no doubt that the speculator community had all crowded into the energy/commodities trade, one of a rapidly narrowing menu of speculations offering juicy (and desperately needed) returns. At the same time, the long energy/short financials “pairs trade” was also put on in great excess. The speculator community as well likely crowded further into dollar short positions, for years now an almost surefire winner. The more the crowded industry struggled for performance, the more they were forced to crowd into the same crowded trades. I would argue that the Bubble in the leveraged speculating community played a significant role in fueling energy/commodities prices inflation beyond what was justified by exceptionally bullish fundamentals. I wouldn’t, however, write off energy and commodities as burst Bubbles.

A lot of things had to go right for the vulnerable leveraged speculator community not to be pushed over the edge. Of course, markets tend to not accommodate the impaired – and the current market is particularly ruthless in this regard. The energy trade has unraveled badly. Commodities markets have been in near freefall. The dollar has mustered its most ferocious rally in quite some time. At the same time, agency debt and MBS spreads have widened, while global bond prices have offered little performance help. Corporate debt prices have performed poorly, while “private-label” MBS and various mortgage-related derivatives have traded dismally. Meanwhile, the financial stocks and other heavily shorted equities have rallied significantly. In short, a whole host of popular trades have gone wrong at the same time – a huge problem for the fragile industry.

We’re now in the midst of another one of these precarious periods. I believe global markets – equities, debt, currencies, and commodities – are all in some stage of dislocation (perhaps not emerging debt, at least yet). Trading conditions across the spectrum of markets are as chaotic as I’ve ever witnessed, a dislocation chiefly related to the now forced unwinds of speculative positions. Recent extreme global market volatility is part and parcel to the Heightened Monetary Disorder I have been addressing for months now. The Massive Global Pool of Speculative Finance has Run Amuck. The bulls will celebrate the rally, yet markets this unstable are prone to “melt-ups” that lead to breakdowns.

Earnings reports this week from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG – three of our largest financial institutions – were horrendous. Financial sector hemorrhaging has actually accelerated, and definitely do not underestimate the impact of tightened Credit in the pipeline from Fannie, Freddie and others. With limited “capital” quickly evaporating, Freddie stated that its aggressive retained portfolio growth has come a conclusion. Fannie intimated about the same. Fannie will curtail purchases of alt-A loans, and it is clear that both companies have lost the capacity to provide the speculators a “backstop bid” in the MBS marketplace. This major additional tightening of mortgage Credit Availability and Marketplace Liquidity will further depress housing markets and bolster the headwinds buffeting our vulnerable economy.

Yet it is not the nature of dislocated markets to let fundamentals get in the way of price movement. Markets, after all, live on fear and greed. Sinking energy prices and a short squeeze ignited U.S. stocks this week. And surging stock prices always entice the optimistic viewpoint, with many viewing runs in stocks and the dollar as confirmation that the worst of the financial and economic crisis is behind us. The bursting of the so-called Energy/Commodities Bubble is also viewed in positive light.

Yet if the key dynamic is instead a Bursting Leveraged Speculating Community Bubble, entirely different dynamics are now in play. Enormous short positions have built up, the vast majority as part of “market neutral,” “quant” and myriad risk hedging strategies. If today’s dislocation develops into a significant unwind of these positions, the market immediately then becomes vulnerable to a disorderly “melt-up” followed almost inevitably by a sharp reversal and disorderly decline. The unwind of bearish speculations and hedges would be a most problematic market development, unleashing a final bout of speculative excess and disorder that would set the stage for a major market crisis.

It is not difficult to envision the backdrop for problematic market liquidation and deepening financial crisis. The hedge fund community is now susceptible to huge year-end redemptions, generally poor performance, shrinking assets & tighter Credit - all taking place in ia climate of inhospitable market conditions which dictate ongoing Credit system de-leveraging. The pool of players willing and able to acquire U.S. risk assets is being depleted by the week. To be sure, the unfolding change of fortunes for the leveraged speculating community is one more key facet of tighter system Credit and faltering Marketplace Liquidity – extremely problematic Financial Conditions for the finance-driven U.S. Bubble Economy. And this makes the current market dislocations in the face of rapidly deteriorating fundamentals such a dangerous development.

Friday, August 15, 2008


Gold Has Biggest Weekly Drop in 25 Years as Dollar Strengthens
By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell below $800 an ounce, capping the biggest weekly slide in 25 years, as the dollar surged against the euro, reducing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Silver dropped as much as 14 percent.
The dollar headed for a fifth straight weekly gain against the euro as economies in Europe slow. Gold generally moves in tandem with the euro as an alternative to the dollar. The metal plunged into a bear market this week, declining as much as 25 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce reached on March 17.
``There's just a lot of long liquidation,'' said Joel Crane, a metals strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. ``Commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. There's no getting around that.''
Gold futures for December delivery fell $22.40, or 2.8 percent, to $792.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal fell 8.4 percent this week, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Feb. 25, 1983.
Earlier, gold touched $777.70, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 20 and the first time the price dropped below $800 since Dec. 21. Gold has fallen every day this month except for a 2.1 percent gain on Aug. 13.
Silver futures for December delivery fell $1.43, or 10 percent, to $12.93 an ounce on the Comex, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since June 13, 2006, when the metal shed 13 percent. Earlier the price touched $12.305, the lowest since Sept. 5.
Commodity Slump
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities tumbled as much as 2.7 percent to 379.07, the lowest since March 20, as silver, soybeans and corn lead the drop. The index has dropped as much as 20 percent since reaching a record July 3, descending into a bear market.
Silver is the third-biggest loser on the CRB this year, down 13 percent, and gold was the fourth biggest after dropping 5.5 percent.
The dollar touched the highest against the euro in almost six months and climbed to an eight-month high versus the yen. Investors sold commodities and bought U.S.-denominated assets on speculation the slowdown that began in the U.S. will spread to other countries, analysts said.
Economic Slowing
``People are not clamoring to the dollar because our economy is strong,'' said Tom Hartmann, a commodity analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``We've already started slowing and it's going to catch up in other countries.''
A housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the U.S. economy into a recession spurred the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate 3.25 percentage points between September and April. The federal funds rate is now at 2 percent.
While the U.S. cut rates, the European Central Bank held their main rate steady at 4 percent from June 2007 to July 2008 to fight inflation as commodities such as oil, corn and gold soared to records. After raising the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent in July, policy makers kept the rate unchanged at their August meeting.
The euro traded as low as $1.4659 today. It reached a record $1.6038 on July 15.
``We are saying this is euro weakness, not dollar strength,'' said Crane of Deutsche Bank. ``We're not convinced that the U.S. dollar can stage a meaningful rebound. At these levels, a lot of these commodities are looking attractive.''
Silver Falls
Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, has fallen 27 percent this month as commodities plunged on concern a global slowdown may cut demand for raw materials. Crude oil traded as low as $111.34 a barrel today, down 24 percent from the July record.
``It's just stops cascading into stops,'' said Frank McGhee, a head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said of silver's decline in overnight trading. ``There was no event. This was just throwing in the towel out of exhaustion.''


AS I Post DOw UP 30, so one could argue we have makings of more upside, I mean we arent giving it back.....hope springs....

OIL and gold are crashing, gas prices coming down...what more do we want?

They didnt mention heating costs may DOUBLE this winter? They didnt mention credit is still tightening? They didnt mention home prices are still falling?

Many price increases are IN books, many more a done deal coming over next few months.

Financials not sold as much last week, but not much rally wither, and after ALL the FED has done.....FNM ONLY pennies above alltime lows.

ANd SPREADS WIDE.....close to BSC days.....and all FED has done....HOME LOAN RATES HAVE BEEN RISING........who leads who?

Down lurking under 2000 top near 11,750 dont know if that is important...US $$ is near what I thinkk MAJOR Resistance around 78....beaten to snot gold might get a repireve but serious TA damage done the commodity bull in hibernation?



Yet what you will observe is the FED has FLOODED market with paper, backstopped FNM and FRE and have UNLOADED BOTH BARRELS.........yet what you observe is RISING MORGAGE RATES!!!! STRICTER LENDING STANDARDS
OIL DOWN.....GOLD CRUSHED UNDER $800..US $$ SOARING ABOVE 77 ??? WTF??? almost parabolic since its historic 71 print.
SPX FUTURES GAINING.....IT'S OPEX FRI BEWARE.....many watching action nearSPX 1305

Thursday, August 14, 2008


The Housing Crisis Is Over *(this ASS owes us an appology!)


"The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now."



Home foreclosure filings up 55 percent in July
U.S. foreclosure activity in July rose 55 percent from a year earlier as a slump in once-sizzling housing markets forced yet more borrowers to default on their mortgages, according to a monthly report.

Foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- rose 8 percent from June and 55 percent from July 2007 to 272,171, according to RealtyTrac, which records property in various stages of foreclosure.

That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July, the firm said. Bank repossessions (REOs) rose 184 percent year-over-year. Default notices were up 53 percent, and auction notices rose 11 percent.

"The sharp rise in REOs, combined with slow sales, has resulted in a bloated inventory of bank-owned properties for sale," James Saccacio, chief executive of Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

RealtyTrac now has more than 750,000 properties in its active REO database, or about 17 percent of the inventory of existing homes for sale reported in June by the National Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac said.

Among 230 metro areas tracked, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, registered the highest foreclosure rate. One in every 64 households there received a foreclosure filing last month, more than seven times the national average.

By state, Nevada led the country with its foreclosure rate in July, as one in every 106 households received a foreclosure filing. Foreclosure activity in Nevada rose 15 percent from the previous month and 97 percent from July 2007, RealtyTrac said.

REOs in Nevada jumped 384 percent from a year ago, default notices surged 59 percent and auction notices rose 31 percent.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008


from yhoo finance

Financials fell 3.0%, which follows the previous session's steep 5% decline. Bank of America (BAC 28.93, -2.20) tumbled 7%, with media reports indicating that several states are suing Countrywide Financial, which the banking giant recently acquired, over Countrywide's lending practices. In addition, Lehman Brothers (LEH 15.71, -0.50) had its earnings estimates cut at Deutsche Bank, while Goldman Sachs (GS 165.12, -2.18), Morgan Stanley (MS 40.17, -2.33) and Lehman Brothers were downgraded to Underperform at Merrill Lynch.

Oil inventories drop...prices rally....I wonder about this report being very accurate.....more people telling me biz sucks....cept guys working on foreclosures...not all is gloom...but beware the bear is here...til he's gone....Olmypic hero Phelps hails from B'more....yeah!



Gold up $11 pre mkt....been pumelled......


Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Monday, August 11, 2008


Portfolio Manager Commentary EnvironmentThe Federal Reserve Board reduced interest rates three times during the first quarter of 2008, dropping the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%. The Fed's first move on January 22nd was a surprise inter-meeting cut of 75 basis points in response to a number of troubling economic factors which had afflicted the market. These included the weak economic outlook, the downside risks to growth, the tightening credit conditions, the deepening housing contraction, and the softening in labor markets.

At the Fed's January 30th and March 18th meetings, further downward moves took place, 50 basis points and 75 basis points, respectively. Furthermore, the problems in the sub-prime mortgage sector and subsequent fallout are still on-going. As a result, and in conjunction with recent economic data, the Fed believes that "financial markets remain under stress" and that the weakness in the economy is likely to remain for "the next few quarters". Nevertheless, the Fed remains confident that the three consecutive large rate cuts this quarter should lead to moderate growth over time and reduce the downside risks to the economy.

With regard to inflation, the Fed acknowledged that not only does inflation remain an ongoing issue, but in fact, the uncertainty about the future outlook has increased. As for future interest rate reductions, the majority of market participants believe that the Fed will cut rates either by 25 or 50 basis points at their next meeting on April 30th. In fact, with the belief that the U.S. economy is either in or very close to a recession, it is expected that the Fed will continue with their easing cycle for the foreseeable future. At the beginning of this period of financial market turbulence, the Trust froze all purchases of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP).

Other commercial paper maturities were shortened. These policies continue to be in effect. The holdings in the Trust were made up of federal agency paper (57%), corporate paper names (19%), and Treasury Bills (24%). The average term to maturity at the beginning of January was 25 days, while at the end of March it had remained relatively static, at 24 days.

OutlookWith the financial markets still in a state of uncertainty, the Trust will continue to avoid buying Asset-Backed Commercial Paper until further notice and will keep other corporate maturities fairly short. While the Trust remains slightly shorter than neutral, it has taken opportunities to extend term on market weakness and conversely, to take profits on market strength, primarily through Treasury bill trading.

MM fund avg return over 10 years 3.2% HUH it beat the SPX???


Federal Reserve finds deepening credit crisis
Monday August 11, 5:13 pm ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Fed: More banks tightening lending standards on mortgages, consumer and business loans

WASHINGTON (AP) -- More banks are tightening lending standards on home mortgages and other consumer and business loans as a deepening credit crisis exerts a heavier toll on the economy.
The Federal Reserve said Monday the percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards rose across various loan types in its July survey. In April, the central bank had found that the percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards was already near historic highs.
The new survey, conducted in early July, found that about 75 percent of the banks surveyed indicated they had tightened their lending standards for prime mortgages. That was up from about 60 percent of banks who said they were tightening lending standards for prime mortgages in the previous survey.
The Fed's July survey covered 50 banks which hold about 80 percent of the residential mortgages on the books of all commercial banks.
Out of this group of 50 banks, 32 said they were still originating so-called nontraditional home mortgages. Among these 32 banks, about 85 percent said they had tightened their lending standards, up from 75 percent who said they were tightening lending standards for nontraditional mortgages in the April survey.
The Fed defines nontraditional mortgages as adjustable-rate mortgages with multiple payment options, interest-only loans and "Alt-A" mortgages that require limited verification of income.
The Fed survey found that only seven of the 50 banks said they were still participating in subprime mortgages, loans made to borrowers with weak credit histories. Of those seven, six said they had tightened lending standards on subprime loans with only one saying it had left standards basically unchanged for subprime loans.
The survey found that most banks were reporting tighter lending standards across a broad swath of consumer and business loans over the past three months.
For home equity lines of credit, 80 percent of the banks surveyed said they had tightened their lending standards in this area.
For credit cards, the percentage of domestic banks reporting tighter lending standards was about 65 percent, more than double the 30 percent who reported they were tightening lending standards for credit cards three months ago.
Analysts said that the big jump in higher standards for credit card debt could represent a serious threat to the already weak economy, given that consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
Harm Bandholz, an economist with UniCredit Markets, said that the tightening in bank standards for credit cards and other types of consumer loans would be "another nail in the coffin of the U.S. consumer, who is already suffering from the weak labor market, high inflation and falling house prices."
David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's in New York, said the tighter lending standards reflect the huge loan losses that banks have already suffered. Those losses have depleted the capital they need as reserves against future losses and made it more difficult for the banks to sell their mortgages and other loans as asset-backed securities, a process that provides them with money to make new loans.
Wyss said he did not believe bank lending will start to pick up until next spring when he is forecasting that the economy will begin to rebound.
"The country is probably going through the most severe credit crunch since 1991-92," Wyss said, referring to a time when banks and savings and loans came under severe pressure while the economy was in a recession. "I think bank credit is going to remain tight for a while."
The current credit crisis hit with force a year ago with rising defaults in the market for subprime mortgage loans. The credit problems have since spread from subprime loans, mortgages provided to borrowers with weak credit histories, to other types of mortgages and other kinds of loans.
The country's major financial institutions have reported billions of dollars in losses and financial markets remain unsettled with investors concerned about potential losses that have yet to be disclosed


Appreciate your commetns jbr,

I am happy we are finally getting a decent rally, but I think it's being sold my friends. Everybody feeling good looking at China during the Olympics......their buying our dollars, I mean who else is? The US $$ is flying like a eagle...into the blue skies.

i tried to show the correlation between oil price and S&P 500 price movement, I know what we have seen as far as btotoms in previous bear markets, like PE ratio and SPX dividend yield and we haven't seen it.......left link to cycles for thought as to what might come.

I see as I try to post this, and started 30 minutes ago, Dow has faded.......That BIll MIller has had $2Billion withdrawn from his Legg Value TRust by Mass State Trust Fund......given over to hedgies....sighted bad performance....and hes a stock pickers GURU....old ideads stop working?....well maybe yes, his time may come again.....this BEAR has LOTS of work to do

Toyota dealership, been doing well in past...laying off 3 mechanics...unusual for them...hard to sell cars right now...


Friday, August 08, 2008


Red line is SPX price.......


**(PSSSSSTTTT Total credit mkt debt is now 350% of GDP!!!!!!!! it was 290% ay 1929 top) “… designed to be a SINGLE MEASURE OFF ALL FEDERAL RESERVE ACTIONS…….

adjusted monetary base is designed to be a
single measure of all Federal Reserve actions, including
changes in reserve requirements, that influence the
money stock. It is equal to the source base plus a
reserve adjustment magnitude (RAM) that accounts for
changes in reserve requirements by the Fed

RAM is calculated as the difference between the
reserves that would have been required (given current
deposit liabilities) if the base period’s reserve requirements
were in effect and the reserves that are actually
required given current requirements). Adding RAM to
the source base produces an adjusted monetary base
series that shows what the source base would have had
to be, given the deposit liabilities for’each period, if the
reserve requirement ratios had always been those of
the base period. Thus, this procedure converts reserve
requirement changes into equivalent changes in the


Foreclosure News from the BLOGISPHERE

Record breaking foreclosure rate in California gjohnsit

8/7/2008 4:19:13 PM

"record breaking" and "foreclosure" are not good words to put together July was another record month for foreclosures in the state of CA with all hell breaking lose and banks taking back roughly 26,500 homes for $12.5 billion. 'Record-breaking' is not a good thing in the foreclosure universe. This 25% increase breaks all records ever posted and all foreclosure estimates. In May we passed $10 billion for the first time with $10.4 billion in loans, or roughly 24k homes, going back to the banks. In June, there were $10.2 billion in loans taken back by the banks, a slight drop. This was an encouraging sign until July's figures were tallied.To clarify, when I say ‘loans taken back by banks', these are actual foreclosures. When a home goes to the auction block the bank puts up the opening bid. If no 3rd party bidder comes in, the bank buys it back. All year long in CA at least, banks have been buying back roughly 97-98% of all homes that go on the auction block. That is an astounding figure in and of itself!

Thursday, August 07, 2008

LONG TERM RETURNS 1998 S and P 500 was 1140, in 2008 it's around 10 years that's about a 0.88% return!! (not counting divies) so I would argue we have BEEN in a SECULAR (coud run 15 years ro more) BEAR MKT, this is not the 10% people think they get from LTBH (buy and hold)

ALSO in 2001 the dollar index was 120.00 and it's now risen from dead (70.00) but is down some 45% to 74.00 so when you add in the loss of BUYING POWER in our US $$$ to a 10 yr less than 1% SPX return.....OH MY!!!!! CURRENT PE RATIO IS 16.37 (CNN.COM) and DIVIDEND YIELD OF 2.14% ) previous BEAR MKT LOWS of SECULAR natur came with SINGLE DIGIT SPX PE'S and over 6% yields !!!! Previous SPX tops came with yields around 3% and we are at 2.14% ?????

Bob Woodruff China special last night was amazing, man are WE fucked!!! Chinese are so f'ing smart!!! but we do need each other, they would NOT sell tons of the over $1T in Bonds they have. But they are in 48 African countries ( BUYING influence and grabbing gobs of nat resources) in Cambodia (using their cheap labor, helping to rebuild) They could care less what the insiders do with oney cept % on projects......Chinese companies getting lions share of work, in one African country there are 22,000 CHinese workers building shit......24/7 !!!

WHere is our $1T? IRAQ!!!!! and what has that done for us? Given us record oil, record debt, loss of face around world, loss of focus as the CHinese go around the world in a grab fest.....they are creating 1 million jobs a month.......they MUST to keep their billions happy and moVING up, they have taken more people out of poverty than ever before.....and they wont stop.


Wednesday, August 06, 2008


If you didnt see it, see if online mUST SEE.....going back to watch maybe comment more tomorrow

D......they are kicking our ASS and we let them??? F!!! we are idiots governed by worse morons...

Tuesday, August 05, 2008


OIL falling this AM to under $120.00 and gold under 900, the BEAR kills almost everyone as MANY are LONG commodities STILL!!! and in energy TRUSTS.......all coming back HARD.

Pre mkt suggests TYPICAL FED RALLY and for what reasoning? none. Falling OIL will give excuse to leave rates alone.


Saturday, August 02, 2008


WEEKEND REPORT "HOW DRY I AM" cost of shipping RAW MATERIALS keeps dropping and as you can see, has broken several uptrend lines.

My BMI (bear mkt index or indicator) has fallen from 60.55 to 55.84 nowhere near showing me a bottom IMHO. Understanding bear rallies can be swift and violent and fun to ride, is what is occuring now one developing of lasting nature?

One of my hesitations thinking so (even as mkt held up OK after dreaful news and data IMHO)
is that we haven't seen the FEAR INDEXES register a washout has occurred and that being said leaves door open for rally to die without much warning.....we have not seen PANIC BUYING (90% up days) and better yet it should occur SOON after a series of 90% DOWN volume days....understanding how the market goes from greed to fear and back again is one of the main basis for staying on right side....and we use past history as a "GUIDE" to alerting us when the greater possibility of this has occured.

If one has never used or is not familiar with technical analysis it is understanding that one might be sleptical or outright dismiss it, that would be bad and tragic mistake.....all those BLACK BOXES out there run off some kinda proprietary algorythm.

For now my BMI is showing lower highs.....but most recent low of 42.57 in JUly is higher than MArch's 39.66, I am not sure what it means yet, but will be looking to see A) if lower high is violated or B) if we can make a lower low....than Bear is back big time and I am waiting to see this indicator bottom along with other helpful details.

Economies slow, and this is happening worldwide. ...note China mkt has been cut in hALF and is DEEP in Bear mkt....unraveling from spiraling inflation and a US slowdown.

Tax coffers are DECLINING at Federal (sales tax income tax etc) and local levels.....think of ALL the revenue buying and selling a house had been bringing State coffers. headlines
Headline Hits
July Payrolls a Bit Better than Expected
GM Posts Massive $15.5 Billion Loss
Biogen, Elan Tumble on Drug Setback
Chevron Misses Earnings Mark
Spots on Sun's Latest Report

For SEVEN Months in a row we have had JOB LOSSES, has anyone heard any official say "we're in a Recession?"

Maybe I AM missing something (does the BLS use voodoo or add some special sausce to change the actual simple math one can use?) but after I add the jobs (gov and education) to the job losses (real economy sectors) I come up with 113,000 jobs lost.....check it out, let me know what you think. headline number was ONLY mins 51K

LASTLY you owe it to yourselves to read (at least in summation near bottom) DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT, it is so well written and documented to make it hard to be refuted.

He starts out in summary:

The Uppers:

The U.S. Bubble Economy has burst. I sympathize with those who would argue this is old news. But the probabilities are now high that GDP turns decisively negative during the second half – if it hasn’t already. Instead of the year-long Credit crisis showing signs of improvement or even stabilization, a further tightening of Credit Availability is taking hold broadly throughout the economy.

That's all I got for this week, here is on a sad note I will end wishing g-d speed and healing to all those hurting or feeling the pain of losing someone dear to the last 2 weeks I have know of the loss 3 people, the deceased are my step mother Pat R, my bass teachers mother, and my most productive sales person's mom (last 2 both past Wed)

IN a lot of ways, you don;t know what you GOT til it's someone you haven't spoken to in awhile......


Friday, August 01, 2008


and you can be what you want to be, see what there is to see, and be more of who you are......there are wonders untold....waiting...

A LOW AT HAND? must read

More tomorrow, it's a retail day for me.