factoid.....in 1998 S and P 500 was 1140, in 2008 it's around 1250.....in 10 years that's about a 0.88% return!! (not counting divies) so I would argue we have BEEN in a SECULAR (coud run 15 years ro more) BEAR MKT, this is not the 10% people think they get from LTBH (buy and hold)
ALSO in 2001 the dollar index was 120.00 and it's now risen from dead (70.00) but is down some 45% to 74.00 so when you add in the loss of BUYING POWER in our US $$$ to a 10 yr less than 1% SPX return.....OH MY!!!!! CURRENT PE RATIO IS 16.37 (CNN.COM) and DIVIDEND YIELD OF 2.14% ) previous BEAR MKT LOWS of SECULAR natur came with SINGLE DIGIT SPX PE'S and over 6% yields !!!! Previous SPX tops came with yields around 3% and we are at 2.14% ?????
Bob Woodruff China special last night was amazing, man are WE fucked!!! Chinese are so f'ing smart!!! but we do need each other, they would NOT sell tons of the over $1T in Bonds they have. But they are in 48 African countries ( BUYING influence and grabbing gobs of nat resources) in Brazil.....in Cambodia (using their cheap labor, helping to rebuild) They could care less what the insiders do with oney cept % on projects......Chinese companies getting lions share of work, in one African country there are 22,000 CHinese workers building shit......24/7 !!!
WHere is our $1T? IRAQ!!!!! and what has that done for us? Given us record oil, record debt, loss of face around world, loss of focus as the CHinese go around the world in a grab fest.....they are creating 1 million jobs a month.......they MUST to keep their billions happy and moVING up, they have taken more people out of poverty than ever before.....and they wont stop.
D
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the only thing that can happen to our population is the inverse of what you speak about. America is counting on contuning the wars to a very bad end.
There was the trade, did you take it? Back testing your blog! LOL
"WE ARE AT YOUR SWING AREA HIGH, THE 1283-87 HIGH TO THE 1233 LOW IS A NICE SWING TRADE. RISK 10 PTS TO THE 1293 AREA, TO REWARD 50 POINTS TO THE 1233'S, YOU GOT IT!!"
check out this picture
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html
Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
August 7, 2008
Fed claims economic problems are minor, expansion was overrated, we inherit the subprime debacle, leading financial institutions turn into insolvent zombies, labor stats highly questionable, the general public is deprived of the economic truth, we were told it wasnt so bad.
We were told that we needed a special President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to prevent stock market crashes, when in fact this group was formed to justify 24/7 governmental manipulation of virtually any and all financial markets in order to line the pockets of Illuminist insider traders like good little fascists and to hide the destruction of our economy to pave the way for world government.
Our politicians fit right into our new “smoke and mirrors” society, especially our presidents, who lead the pack with lies and false promises. Slick Willy told us first that he did not inhale, and finally that he did not have sex with that woman. Dubya once told us that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and now he tells us that our economy is strong. Perhaps these two pips have been lying so long and so often that they actually believe such things. If so, clearly they live in their own little dream world, totally divorced from the reality that the rest of us are forced to live with. Our Treasury Secretary tells us that he believes in a strong dollar policy while doing anything and everything to undermine the dollar, with his moral hazard bazooka at the ready to force bailout after hyperinflationary bailout. Our Fed Chairman continually tells us that we have some minor problems, but that there is nothing dire to worry about as everything will moderate over time, while all the while our economy falls down around our ears. Things will moderate over time alright - as in decades. The latest from Buck-Busting Ben is that “economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports.” Wow, isn’t that just great? Why, that’s even good enough to justify a 331+ point increase in the Dow. Too bad it isn’t true, but why let the truth get in the way of the latest stock market party so that the sheople all think it’s safe to get back into the water with the myriad of crocodiles, alligators, piranhas, barracudas, sharks and killer whales (aka Wall Street banking and brokerage fraudsters). The so-called “expansion” was based purely on higher prices resulting from a 26-year high in consumer inflation (which also yielded negative growth in consumer spending and a negative GDP) together with a one-time stimulus package that has pretty much petered out without stimulating much of anything. But why spend time on such boring details when you can fantasize about wonderful, fairytale economic statistics in your Goldilocks matrix pod. This is the stuff that Monty Python skits are made of. If our current circumstances were not so tragic, we would be laughing hysterically at the daily inane comments spewed forth from the mouths of our various peerless leaders. The ongoing false scenarios painted by these reprobates and sociopaths is nothing short of surreal, and the willingness of the sheople to believe them is nothing short of phantasmagoric.
The Illuminists gave us the subprime debacle, where everyone, from the borrowers all the way up the daisy chain of fraud to the mortgage securitizers and rating agencies, lied through their teeth in order to throw mortgage money at anyone who could fog a mirror. The banks now hide their damage from this fraud off balance sheet, and through “creative accounting” methods blessed by corrupt government regulators, they continue to mark their assets to model, and not to market, which models are based on bogus black box computations and statistical pipe-dreams and fantasies. As this transpires, our leading financial institutions continue to wander around aimlessly as insolvent financial zombies in a remake of George Romero’s “Night of the Living Dead,” while claiming from their mouth to God’s ears that their capital position is sufficient and that their financial condition is healthy. This real estate Ponzi-scheme followed the dot.com scandal, where anyone with a web site was worthy of a stock or bond securitization to raise capital, and never mind that they had no assets, income, profits, customers or business plan. The various fraudsters as usual unloaded all these brand new securitizations on the hapless, ignorant public, and left everyone else holding the bag. The sheople just stood by with their jaws hanging open as they watched their savings and retirement plans get vaporized. Because of the subprime debacle, which was implemented to prevent us from going into recession and depression in the aftermath of the dot.com bubble, we can now add our home equity to the smoldering pile of charred ruins, thus completing the total and utter destruction of the assets of our middle class in preparation for world government as we are brought to our knees by the malevolent destruction of our economy by the Illuminati. This was all accomplished with all those pathological, Illuminist lies.
Then, there is the Bureau of Lying (Labor) Statistics, from which we cannot recall getting a single, true, business statistic in decades. This is the principal lie-creating machine that spews forth false statistics to mislead the sheople, while the Illuminists, who know what the real statistics are, clean the clocks of non-insiders who are relying on the false and fraudulent data. Like sending sheep to the slaughter, this is how the Illuminati fleece the sheople year in and year out. Thus, economic truth that should be available to the general public perversely becomes insider trading information. To give but a few examples of the type of tripe emanating from the BLS, our beloved bastion of statistical truth has told us that GDP is positive when it is negative, that inflation is one third of the actual inflation that we experience, that the unemployment rate is one third of the actual rate of unemployment, that the non-farm payroll decreased by a number of jobs that is one third of actual job losses, etc., etc., etc., ad infinitum. While the public dines on the milk toast lies of the BLS concerning what is really our dying economy, the Illuminati will bail out of dollar-denominated paper assets using their dark pools of liquidity known as Project Turquoise and Baikal, and then roll the proceeds over into real, tangible assets such as real estate, infrastructure, plants and equipment, resource stocks, gold, silver, oil, agricultural products, base metals and other commodities. While this transpires, the foolish sheople will continue to think that our economy is on its way to a complete recovery right up to the moment when the stock, bond and derivative markets crash into hyper-stagflationary oblivion, leaving them holding all the “worthless paper.” What will the BLS say then, that they made a few computational errors? We can only imagine.
We were told that the phony “War on Terror” in Iraq and Afghanistan would cost in the hundreds of billions, when it will in fact cost multiple trillions. We were told precisely the same thing about the magnitude of the toxic waste derivative losses that Wall Street’s financial fraudsters would suffer. We were told that we needed a special President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to prevent stock market crashes, when in fact this group was formed to justify 24/7 governmental manipulation of virtually any and all financial markets in order to line the pockets of Illuminist insider traders like good little fascists and to hide the destruction of our economy to pave the way for world government. We were told that we should get rid of the Glass-Steagall Act because it was outdated and it interfered with the proper function of modern financial markets, but the real reasons for the resulting Gramm, Leach, Bliley Act (signed by Slick Willy near the end of his term as a parting gift to the US public), which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, was to allow Wall Street fraudsters to pawn off the toxic waste securitizations created by their investment banking subsidiaries on their own commercial banking clients, to allow acts of moral hazard and conflicts of interest to be legally perpetrated, to turn our financial markets into a gambling casino and to allow non-insurance companies with completely inadequate reserves to underwrite against potential bond principal and interest losses. Auction rate bond investors were told that their funds were being invested in AAA paper as good as cash, but they were really chasing a higher yield made possible through a market created by the fraudsters to pawn off their municipal toxic waste, and now that municipalities are in trouble due to waning tax revenues, the fraudsters don’t want to make a market anymore and have left their clients holding the bag with unmarketable, junk securities. We were told that we needed the Federal Reserve System to smooth out the business cycle and to stabilize inflation, and all we have had for almost a century is a boom-bust economy and out-of-control inflation time and time again so that insiders can line their pockets with the mega-profits that only wild economic volatility can produce for insider traders who are told exactly where and when to invest, and so the middle class can be stealth-taxed into oblivion to pay for profligate Congressional spending on Illuminist projects without raising income taxes to absurd levels (yes, even more absurd than we have now) and to make way for a world government in the wake of the destruction of the US economy and middle class. We were even told that because of all the financial turmoil we are now experiencing, that the Fed should be given complete regulatory control over the entire financial community, and not just over commercial banks within the Federal Reserve System. And never mind that the Federal Reserve is the main culprit behind all this financial turmoil. Only in America. You just can’t make this stuff up, unless, of course, you are one of the Illuminati. And on, and on, and on the lies go, ad nauseam.
The central banks are going bonkers to support the dollar, as we see wild spikes bringing the dollar back up every time it starts to go down after another dead cat bounce. This is collusion, plain and simple. And now oil is being hit, all to suppress the precious metals and to give the markets and the economy a boost before elections so scum-dog incumbents can have a shot at reelection. Lindsey Williams’ scenario is good so far, but a drop to $50 a barrel for oil so quickly does not seem likely and may be disinformation, so don’t let that scare you. Even if oil drops to $50, M3 is still running at 16% to 18%, so inflation is not going to moderate as much as some would think based on lower oil prices, no matter how low they go. Remember, high oil prices are not the root cause of inflation, they are the result of a weakening dollar, a profligate money supply by the Fed to save insolvent fraudsters and oil speculation by Wall Street pirates utilizing the Enron loophole to save balance sheets and income statements. Also, seasonal factors will soon be at play as the wedding and religious ceremonies in India and the Middle East add jewelry demand to what is already substantial investment demand. The credit-crunch is getting worse instead of better, as is the real estate-subprime debacle which will soon morph into the Option ARM debacle. Also, consumer spending is tanking, which will take down corporate earnings to new lows as 70 to 80 percent of our GDP goes down the tubes. Third quarter earnings are going to be the worst yet due to rapidly declining consumer spending and sky-high oil prices for a goodly portion of the quarter. Worldwide inflation is going to continue to put pressure on dollar pegs, and a continuing dollar decline will make the financing of US trade and current account deficits more and more difficult. Which nation will start the panic to unload treasuries, we wonder. Russia is a good candidate if the current Administration keeps up its Eastern European hi jinks.
Bank failures are about to become common place on the new, Friday night, after-market, Bank Failure News Hour, which is the latest rage for investors, television viewers and Internet surfers everywhere. Instead of getting Fireside Chats like the people during the Great Depression, we get the Bank Failure News Hour now every Friday night. Look out Tonight Show, this could mean trouble for your ratings every Friday night for years to come!
Debt ceiling raised to over $10 T......just imagine the interest on National debt, and wonder WHY oh WHY is 10 yr near 4%?
D
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