Saturday, January 30, 2010

Doug Noland's Latest

THE VOLCKER RULE always one of the intelligent well written weekly pieces on the net.

"One of the big problems today is that there are tens of Trillions of marketable securities out there – and their value depends greatly on the ongoing creation of Trillions more. Our system needs major financial reform – no doubt about it. From today’s Wall Street Journal: “The White House’s relationship with Wall Street is close to the breaking point.” A war on Wall Street would put Credit growth, asset markets and economic recovery all at risk."

We have been in a correction phase and as noted it falls much more quickly and with more volume than the rallies. Highs may be in, maybe not....but the correction has further to run IMHO.

Mondays have ben rally days, in some indicators we are fuly oversold, so might be spot to bounce being oversold if NO bounce....would not be good sign.


Friday, January 29, 2010




79.28 this AM



5.7% GDP, the bulls say "read 'em and weep!" I say 5.7% GDP (estimate) BFD with 10% plus unemployed, bank loans declining, home valuations sunk, 0% interest rates, heavy GOV housing subsidies along with record low mortgage rates not resucitating the market......economy is GOV spending stimulus and FED FED is buying up ALL the mortgage paper and has supplanted its core $800B Treasury Bond portfolio in exchange for $2 T pock marked mortgage krap.

I see continued deleveraging and little momentum in the private sector, are we a gov economy or a free market system?

5.7% GDP huh? well bravo....bravo.....glad to see things picking up......funny how it doesn't see all that jiggy.....

WATCH REACTION.......NEWS IS NEWS IS OLD'll find out SOON if this MIRACLE of economic recovery is priced in. Arch Coal earnings and Chevron earnings plunge.....the commodity sector which led earnings are now faltering.

Of course the Ponzi artists on CNBC are paradig around, fluffing their hair and admitting this decline was a "GREAT BUYING OPP"....goody


Thursday, January 28, 2010


Some $30 Billion has been freed up by TWERP paybacks (not profits, goosed newly issued stock then SOLD to new bagholders) and I am so impressed, shouldn't that make IMPACT over 2 years in a $14 TRILLION economy? uh NO!

Friends, under the current (or past) leadership, I don't see how it's possible to pull out of this nose dive. If banks aren't making loans, how is the economy growing? on AIR?

Why don't they call the yearly gig STATE OF OUR BULLSHIT? One thing between now and 1929 stats.....time.

There is NO easy way out, JOBS program? yeah Obama get back to us in 6 months or so with a game 'bout replacing some windows?



2009 Durable Goods order fell by a RECORD 20% ! same time we witnessed record V shaped markets.....

Unemployment claims continue to stay elevated at 470,000. Friends, we have 7 million PLUS out of the labor pool, not bringing home paychecks, I'm guessing NOT contributing to 401K plans.

I have shown that bank demand for new loans has what is proposed is that we end up as a Gov controlled economy, energy, health care, auto's, is that GOV decreees is the hot spot, that is where they will BUY growth....not any semblence to a free mkt capital system I recognize....IMHO stock values based on reality are EXTREMELY overvalued



*click to enlarge reminded
*(John MAck CEO GS on CNBC....."loan demand is down DRAMATICALLY" when questioned if banks are NOt lending)
MACD crossed up in MArch a BUY SIGNAL (GOOD ONE!) but now see downward red/blue arrows....MACD has crossed down and the blue histograms have gone below 0.
Also I drew 3 FAN LINES from the MArch lows, all violated. I also drew DOWNTREND LINE from the highs back in 2007 and price stopped there. with a TEST (red candle) in place.
We are also sitting on the 20 WEEK MOVING AVG (exponential) which we haven't been below since July correction.
If the 20 WEEK SHOULD flatten and then turn down (doesn't happen over night) then another nail would be hammered in the bull case.
Higher highs could come, anything is possible, but this weekly chart leaves room for other outcomes, at least in near term.
The deleveraging continues, bank lending and loan demand CONTINUE to DECLINE so the GOV has stepped in to spend and unfortunately what do they do a good job at?
Say what they might, small biz barely has pulse, little job creation, almost ALL the efforts went to saving the BAD BANKS, TRILLIONS of bullets been spent with little to show.
AS the need to fund the ever increasing debt grows, the chances of an interest rate bond accident does too.
AS rates fall it usually stimulative to economy, but we are at near record LOWS, but RECORD HIGHS in debt issuance....and NO secondary market without 100% FED guarantee.
EVERY MAJOR BEAR MARKET ENDED with stocks at never before seen levels, dividend yields at 6% or better (now only 1.95% !!!!! on SPX) and the stock market shunned like scarlet too will this one


I wish mere words could propel us into the next sustainable recovery, but they fall like dust in the wind, as empty as the previous chorus. DO WE HAVE TRANSPARENCY? My ass we do....that was #1 promise.

We suffer from a MASSIVE DEBT OVERHANG AND CRASHED PONZI SCHEME.....until stocks yield 6% or more the TRUE bottom will never be seen, IMHO

VOLUME DOWN, MANY AMERICANS have fled the stock market for the bond market or "SAFER" returns and have shunned the stock market. Money gotta go somewhere, the TRILLIONS printed mostly going into specualtive NON JOB PRODUCING markets.....the actions of FED and GOV have stimulated Wall Street and not much else, unless you make windows.

People have shufted from unprecedented consumption to more connservative psoture and are trying to pay down debt and save.

My contection then is why screw the majority who want to save with sickeningly crappy meager returns?

If Banks aren't lending well then dammit the FED should stop letting them suck on the hind teet! FREE MILK is over!!!! REWARD SAVERS IF THAT IS WHAT MAJORITY ARE DOING....gee maybe they spend the interest? now they can't because there isn't any!

My call last night was that FED meeting action gets reversed next day, that OBAMA speach would fall like lead baloon.......we'll see

JOBS JOBS JOBS, has a nice ring to it, if the idiots knew how to grow them....

Now if the GOV and FED had a Steve Jobs kind of guy in there we might get USEFUL innovation@@@.....who doesn't want one of those ipads? goodness he has golden touch!!!! books in videos, TV on the go....movies OH MY


Wednesday, January 27, 2010



from full report here

" China also could be the next bubble as they are building up their economy to sell products to a world that is deleveraging."

After Obama get sfinished blowing hot air tonight, it is likely the mkt reverses tomorrow as is a majorty of times after FED meeting reaction.

KD FOMC STATEMENT HUMOR enjoy the show tonight....I'll be playing Xbox



Release Date: January 27, 2010
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.
In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50 billion in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and $25 billion in 28-day credit wil be offered at the final auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted.

Let’s get this fing straight, things are improving, bank lending still falling……homes sales at depression levels still after 0% fed for 2 years…gov giveaways…..foreclosure cheapies…….and they should keep rates at 0%..??? FME!!!! As lemmings ran from the ponzi scheme they found another way to f us…..0% for savings!


New Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in December- Reuters
Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes fell unexpectedly in December, data showed on Wednesday, the latest indication that the government-led housing recovery might be losing some steam. The Commerce Department said sales fell 7.6 percent to a 342,000 unit annual rate from an upwardly revised 370,000 units in November. It was the second straight month that new home sales declined.

It's the bendmeover economy..... can't wait for more BS rhetoric tonight.....

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is denying that he was involved in withholding information about deals that sent billions from the bailout of American International Group Inc. to big banks.

YIKES , you read about Toyota's issues and halting major production portions of US plants??


Of 5,000 stocks has BROKEN uptrend line from the MArch lows,
IMHO a test of break (last larger RED candle) and a MACD sell signal, on a WEEKLY basis this move is more telling.
It isn't the NEWS, it's the reaction.
Who else has been warning that things don't add up and the 1150 SPX resistance? Also the Trans has retraced a FIB .618, in the rear view we will know more...
AT the open a LISP LADEN FLUNKEE MORON on CNBC says......."we've had a tremendous recovery in the economy......" have they NO shame?


Tuesday, January 26, 2010


ANother failed rally day ending in the red. 2 200 plus downers may not have taken rices low enough to attract buyers.

We're into full swing earnings season, but IMHO a BUST OUT over the top beat the street is priced in.

Things are better, just not good.


Strap On Not LIke The Real Thing

VIX has bounced back strongly, fear has picked up, most bears have covered shorts.....this recent market weakness feels different to me than anything so far since March lows. Some decent technical damage has been done and again the down days down volume far outpaces the rally efforts.

Market hard to rally when President is in trouble and Wall Street attacked. Now all this IMHO is bringing new level of uncertainty to businesses. 74% of office furniture dealers polled by MMQB do not see pick up in order pipe line.

SO Monday (AGAIN!) our poster rally day was said to be bully because now it looks MAYBE Bernanke gets confirmed, big whoop....and it faded into close and was weak ass volume.

Stats show Bank Lending has been CONTRACTING at worrisome levels, near $600 Billion since crisis began, and going into 2010 this contraction continues along with consumer credit, 7 million plus not involved in economy, bank loans contracting, home values crashing, standards tightened....too much uncertainty and this is back drop for a V SHAPED RECOVERY? or any recovery I might ask.

Obama's plans call for mostly short term stimulus, banks aren't lending, don't have to......where are the jobs going to be created? where is the sustainable economy?

Other than ill advised BAILOUTS, and back room deals, what's the plan for the economic revival?


Monday, January 25, 2010


The "TYPICAL" rally on Monday was here like a guarantee, but volume DROPPED by near 28% !

Lacking fully oversold conditions my guess is APPL and whatever is priced in and the decline has further to roll.


Saturday, January 23, 2010


Is it REAL or is it MEMOREX?
"You can't spend your way out of debt, nor inflate your way to prosperity"
I think I have proven my worth of this blog, don't wait for the shit to hit the fan to read and pass the link along to a friend or family.....I ain't going nowhere and will keep telling it like I see it....right or wrong.
I'm not going to YELL BEAR IS BACK BEAR IS BACK.....get your bear bell strapped on TA won't confirm that as yet. In every uptrend comes a comeupins, so far this probably is start of a good comeupins.
Ask yourself, WHY HASN'T ONE M'FER GONE TO JAIL OVER THIS CRISIS AND PONZI SCHEME? (ugly whore Madoff doesn't count)(SO ugly he will get NO sex in jail!)
With the FED ONLY buyer of CDO'S because no one can trust them, how do we restart SECONDAY MARKET?
How was Moody's and FITCH able to get away scott free with what appeared to be collusion in masquerading the mortgage SLOP as GRADE AAA?????? more like a XXX bendover.
Here's one. LET THE BANKS give away ALL the money/profits gained by "NORMAL BANKING BUSINESS" but first reinstate MARK TO MARKET ACCOUNTING and see if any REAL PROFITS!!!!
Banks are being allowed to destribute $10's of $BILLIONS of TRADING PROFITS" using FED FREE money as the buyin and being backstopped against any losses.
Here's these assholes warped sense of game plan, get banks healthy by allowing them to manipulate stock market and issue MILLIONS of shares of INFLATED NEW STOCK and use proceedes to pay back TWERP and get away from BONUS restrictions....super.
What a warped sense of justice, game plan, what is BROKEN don't attempt to fix, inflate excess banking reserves and then PAY BANKS not to lend!!!!!
Sharpen your ptichforks, soak your torches.
Doug Noland weekend read "A war on Wall Street puts recovery....etc all at risk" is that where we are headed?

Friday, January 22, 2010


On the lips, or your neighbors pit bull. THE ST decline has arrived, we will asess as the TA provides if that turnes into an IT correction.....the near term posture of the market has sagged.

Angry words to wall street dont effect Mcdonalds profits, but since most of the volume comes from the banksters and friends, they dont like mean spirited words.

It's never the news, just the reaction that counts. Gotta run, just a quick keads up, another triple digit decline, so much for the buy the dip crowd......higher prices in the long run? should we all live long enough sure...and I'll keep calling it like I see it pig bear or squirrel




Market will try to rally from yesterdays 87% down day. Volume on the decline INCREASED by 45% !!!

Pressure will remain on the most important component of our economy, housing, until maybe 2012 when the worst of the mortgage arm resets decline....I can't see home values stabilizing until sometime near then. Bank profits are trading profits, losses are hidden with accounting rule change.

NAHB housing mkt index is faltering again after brief rally from lower depths not seen since 1991

Residential fixed investment is in the krapper not seen since 1950's !

Do as I answer same as I do? Consumer Confidence to BUY A HOME is at lowest level in almost 30 years. Plans to add a frig or dryer etc near decades lows. Autos? in the krapper.

These are the engines of the economy, showing scant signs of life. GDP will get boost from inventory rebuild, and weak 2008 comps, but retail sales are very weak.

Obama choosing bad timing for rattling his Wall Street are scums sword. More uncertainty, what is priced into market, going forward we are sure to find out.

Price weakened enough to fall back into lower trading range, expect rally attempt, I don't think it will have any teeth.



Thursday, January 21, 2010


Is that a decline in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?
Chart speaks for itself, rally on putrid volume a scam, declines on ferocious volume increasing volume.
Let's take it day by day, I won't stick a fork in it, but recent action looks and feels different, what exactly the market MAY be fretting about we may yet to find out.
My 60M chart from WEd may have nailed it.


Feeling lucky punk?
Big pick up in VIX to around 21.....getting interesting

Headwinds and Head Lice

UNEMPLOYMENT claims "surprise" rise to 482,000 and the 4 week moving average also rose 7,000 after falling for 19 straight weeks.

I hear gov going to commision a study into how they can help small business.......take your a study......and maybe some will be still there when you figure out how to help them.

Small biz in hard time can't gain access to any money from the banking system, why after all their cash flow is going to suck, and they are sustaining losses so NO bank wants to lend into that!

Meantime the bigger players may have credit lines, and some maybe too big to fail. The stock market can continue to rally, whoopie, but on MAIN STREET real lives are being destroyed, real people can't get jobs, real houses fall into foeclosures as the too big to fail enterprises get to make up valuations of their paper and have virtual free access to money and profits and well they feel pretty good about themselves.

Is the vote in Mass a vote for a SMALLER GOV, less waste and spending? If it is, hasn't this gov splurge been the main thing driving the economy?

Previous trading range had been around 1120-1080. top is 1150 one of the targets mentioned for some kind of top.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010


WHAT DAMN RECOVERY????? take a damn LOOK!!!!!!

Considering ALL that has been done, this is PATHETIC! The gov subsidy program is luring buyers to foreclosed properties at expense of existing and home builders.....and there are MILLIONS more coming on line foreclosed.

One of the components "prospective buyer traffic" fell back to what we saw at panic March lows! DOWN IS DOWN...but heck why worry about this stuff, why don't we figure out how to tax CARBON !!!! and put GS at another feeding trough.....

"Change you can believe in..." ???? MASS voters sent loud message, we get you and we are sick to our stomachs!

**late update 9:14 PM AFter review of the closing stats, I am not convinced market ready to give up ghost, given chance to pick up speed, selling fell off last hour and were not as intense as the numbers suggest, a rebound is possible. I will post a 60M chart next to show why decline may have farther to go.



1130 SPX broke but "buyers" came in, how wonderful, the dip buying crowd sees blue skies.






PELOSI ADAMANT ON HEALTH CARE REFORM PUSH This is one of the Dem's problems, they DONT LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE only 33% are on board with this (brainwashed)....we dont need gov knowing what's good for us, socialism, we need gov OUT of our business.



Piece at zero hedge link here

"the market looks 6-9 months out...." will it like what it sees?

IMHO, of course, NOT to LOCK in profits at SPX 1150 and keep telling people "BUY THE DIPS" borders on recklessness.

I am not saying top is in, though it might be, what I'm saying only an insane person would believe we fixed anything and stage is set for lasting sustainable recovery! BE GREEDY....GET GORED......future is anything but for certain.....


TOUGH TO GET MORTGAGE It used to be if you had a FACE you got mortgage, the stock has become again a casino, does not represent good value and is a cess pool for the liquidity and IMHO does not reflect life on the street.

If its true the excessive bearishness has been wiped clean, and valuations not attractive, I would ask is the potential UPSIDE from HERE, worth the risk? What is the downside risk if we "double dip?"


Tuesday, January 19, 2010






The dow would show a similar PUTRID performance, this tells us only by trying to INFLATE values higher, has prices appeared to rally. FOOLS GOLD, a FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON DEPARTED.

It is said that the FED's main job is to PROTECT the value of the reserve currency......I hate to see what they loath....



We want to see loans RISE, chart here. A LOST DECADE is what almost noone is talking about. Stocks prices are LOWER than over 10 years ago. And if you use GOLD as the medium there has been almost no gains at all.

What may be most troublesome, is IF a "bear market rallys" job is to restore investor bullishness and correct previous wave of bearishness, it has done a good job. Advisors polled who remain BEARISH have shrunk back to levels not seen since before the 1987 stock crash.

I don't see the perfect scenario laid out for a sustainable recovery, I don't see help for small business nor a return to where small business is optimistic. I don't see home prices appreciating again. I don't see credit expanding again. I don't see reasonable yields on the SPX 500, I only see FED and GOV intervention and market dynamics that appear broken.

I see if I take ONLY what is KNOW, TRAILING 4 quarters of SPX earnings, I see the lowest readings in maybe a century. You tell me you KNOW what is going to happen tomorrow?

What a great investment environment? Take INTEL (INTC) around 10 years ago at tech mania high it was around $80 a share, today? $20 and change!!!!


Monday, January 18, 2010



Lack of end demand is seen in recent retail sales data and that is telling us we aren't likely to get much follow through from the quarter 4 inventory rebuild cycle.

IN an environment of steep SPX valuations, and narry a bear ot be found, the ebulence of bullish sentiment is usually waiting for an adjustment.

As the GOV steps in to backstop almost everything, provide majority of mortgages, and spender of last resort, any pullback of Government stimulus will be felt immediately.

There is constraint in the credit system and the secondary market barely exists. You could say our economy is on life support.

With commercial and residential construction so overdone, the stimulus money earmarked for construction projects may get detoured to help PLUG holes on local governments fiscal shortfalls.

If housing prices continue to decline the already huge number of home owners falling behind on mortgages will surely explode higher. Foreclosure filings continue to rise, where is the data to suggest a silver lining.

If it were not for that accounting rule change, would the big banks appear sound?

If you are buy and holding I assume you are hoping that the fundamentals that don't back up the V shaped recovery thesis finally do.

I have read other reports where SPX fair value maybe closer to 800-900, FWIW.

The economy barely has a pulse, and DEMAND for bank CREDIT is VERY weak, even as banks employ stricter card credit has been reduced and credit lines cut.

My friends, I fail to see the back drop to blue skies. With a S & P dividend yield near 1.88%, 6% is where previous SECULAR BEARS ended.


Saturday, January 16, 2010


Turbulent 3 days of the market comes to end with a breakdown decline, 2 of last 3 days were triple digit losses. Good chance for follow thru into early next week.

Since 1952 total credit market debt as % of GDP has been rising from around 125% to near 375% just recently, a turn down has begun almost imperceptable from a long term chart.

We have experienced credit growth for almost 70 years as debt has expanded but now this cycle has been reversed and the trend is CONTRACTING, and this is not condusive to sustainable vibrant economic growth.

We now have come back from the brink, banks have raised capital, stock markets have rebounded, but the imbalances remain unchecked (Doug Noland "Deficits 25 years and counting").

As is normally the case, lowering interest ratesgets us out of recession, but this time there is NO PENT UP DEMAND for housing and autos. STRIKE ONE

The inventory to sales ratio is weak.

The recovery off the Recession bottom expressed in job growh and many other areas is one of WEAKEST on record and is one reason I see this rally contained inside a super bear secular trend.

Investment and credit expansion has not returned and remains increadbaly weak. STRIKE TWO

Tightened credit standards, falling bank loans reinforce an economy that at best is fighting not to be drawn inside the BLACK HOLE. STRIKE 3

A V shaped market rally, does not equate to a V SHAPED economic me the data otherwise.

Now Wall Street Bankers are on the firing range, and being demonized. A not so friendly attitude towards wall street is not stock friendly IMHO.

Though rates can fall further, they are already rising from near historic lows. 2 years we have gone with FED easing and huge stimulus.

Can we simply print our way to proserity? HIGH levels of bullishness and marginal new highs on skimpy volume SMELL like distribution from strong insider hands to the bag holder weak hands.

One day OUT OF THE BLUE the bear wilL ROAR back and force a reconciliation with our abusive debt ridden past and that will be UGLY but necessary so we can repair and move ahead




Friday, January 15, 2010


ABove small BIZ survey.....up against it. AGAIN I SAY this rally is almost ALL SMOKE AND MIRRORS


$ is rallying this AM and OIL is back below $80. SPX hit 1150 and came back, hyped INTC results have not resulted in HUGE FUTURES RAMP.

Inventory rebuild will help next GDP read, BUT retail sales are weak and dissapointing. I had a HUGE post keyed up a few days ago detailing the headwinds to recovery and my blog ate it@! I may try redo SAT afternoon, so check back.

I understand there was a HUGE bet (or bets) placed on SPX reaching 1150, for every PT it rises above payout on 60,000 contracts I think is $200,000. TODAY is OPEX FRI. will that 1150 be the magnate or repulse?


Wednesday, January 13, 2010


David Rosenberg on

Don't expect much from this week IMHO, opex FRI looms unless we have accident


"Obama’s involvement in Chicago Climate Exchange—the rest of the story"


Great chart from calculated risk




As an aside hard to see an exciting economy when tax receipts are declining, can't hide th truth there. This week sets up for options expiration Friday (3rd Fri every month) the usual activity is increased volatility.


Tuesday, January 12, 2010


AMAZING!! made theguitars from muffler parts!



The Dow contains only 30 Industrial stocks, so no need to conspire any theories about the well known index, it can be easily manipulated and it masked a much stronger decline.

The SPX (500 companies) decline 10 pts almost 1% and the NAZ was off a large 30 points. With the market near term overbought, the chances for further losses are in place.

The only way to infer anything is to wait and see if there is continued OOMPH behind ANY selling, because before today there sure hasn't been any for quite awhile.

Go ahead, call this rally a NEW BULL if you must, they also suffer severe retraces of the move.
When you throw in the bullshit smoke screen and idiots trotted out on brainless boob tube there is more than meets the eye.



And it will end like 2000 and 2007 did if all you get is a clown act in gov.


Insouciant Americans

Insouciant Americans

By Paul Craig Roberts

12 January, 2010

The Underwear Bomber case indicates that whoever is behind these bomb scares is laughing at our gullibility.

How realistic is it that al-Qaida, an organization that allegedly pulled off the most fantastic terror attack in world history, would in these days of heightened security choose for an attack on an airliner a person who is the most conspicuous of all? Umar Farouk Mutallab had a one-way ticket, no luggage, no passport, and his father, reportedly a CIA and Mossad asset, had reported him to the CIA and Mossad. Does anyone really believe that al-Qaida would choose as an airliner bomber a person waving every red flag imaginable?

This obvious question has escaped the U.S. media, a collection of salespersons marketing full body scanning machines for airports.

Would al-Qaida, with its extensive knowledge of explosives, have armed Umar with a "bomb" that experts say couldn’t have blown up his own seat?

It is difficult to imagine a more gullible population than America’s, but do even Americans believe this story?

Since 9/11 the F.B.I. has been busy enticing people, who lack organizational skills, into "terrorist plots" that consist of F.B.I. initiated hot air talk. These ridiculous stings are then taken to trial, and the media fans the flames of fear of "home-grown terrorist plots against Americans."

There is little doubt that those interested in leading the U.S. deeper into a police state and deeper into a "war on terror" are active in adding orchestrated events to whatever real ones real terrorists manage to accomplish. The paucity of real terrorists has caused the U.S. government and its Ministry of Truth to promote the Taliban to terrorist rank. The problem is that these "terrorist acts" are taking place thousands of miles away in lands that the average American cannot find on a map and, thus, lack scare value. To keep the peril alive for Americans, we have the Underwear Bomb Plot.

What will be next? An elaborate head of hair laced with nano-thermite?

The "war on terror" is a far greater threat to Americans than all the terrorists in the world combined. This is so because the "war on terror" has destroyed the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights. American citizens are now helpless in the event someone in government decides that some constitutionally protected behavior, such as free speech, or a contribution to a children’s hospital in Gaza, where Hamas, a U.S.-declared "terrorist organization," happens to be the elected government, constitutes aiding and abetting terrorism.

On Jan. 5 a ruling by the Federal Appeals Court in the District of Columbia gave away the most essential protection of liberty by declaring that the U.S. government is not bound by law during war. The ruling absolves Washington from complying with America’s own laws and from complying with international laws, such as the Geneva Conventions. It makes a mockery of all war crime trials everywhere. By elevating the executive branch above the law, the court gave the government carte blanche.

The rationale offered by the court for refusing to uphold the law came from Judge Janice Rogers Brown, who said that America had been pushed by war past "the leading edge of a new and frightening paradigm, one that demands new rules be written. War is a challenge to law, and the law must adjust." By "adjust" she means "be set aside" or "be thrown out."

The U.S. Supreme Court has refused to defend both the Constitution and the principle that government is not above the law. Last Dec.14 the Supreme Court refused to review a ruling by the Federal Appeals Court in the District of Columbia, which dismissed a torture case with the argument that "torture is a foreseeable consequence of the military’s detention of suspected enemy combatants." In other words, neither U.S. nor international laws against torture can be enforced in U.S. courts. The opinion [PDF] was written by Judge Karen Lecraft Henderson.

The "war on terror," which is enriching Halliburton, Blackwater (now operating under an alias), and the military/security complex, while denying Americans health care, is running up debt that is a threat to Americans’ purchasing power and living standards. The contrast between America’s sanctimonious rhetoric and the murder of civilians and torture of prisoners has destroyed America’s reputation and caused Europeans as well as Muslims to despise the United States.

The sacrifice of the Constitution and rule of law to a hyped "theorist threat" has destroyed the heart and soul of America herself.

As a poet wrote, "our world in stupor lies."


AFter months of improvement, starting to deteriorate again.



MORE OBAMA BULLSHIT. And add higher taxes because of the health care plan that doesn't even have the public option!!!!!!!! what a hypocrite! Ask yourself WHY are ALL the HealthCare stocks at or near 52 week highs?????????????? ADD CAP N TRADE??? what a BS plan this is....more MOOHLAH for BANKSTERS like GS who will make a market in this BS? YIKES!

Global warming? 30 degrees in FLA got my buddy scrambling for firewood! I digress.


The (not for profit? nOPE!!!!) FED began lowering interest rates almost 2.5 years ago, normal recoveries after Recession ends (they said it did) show first QTR after GDP averaging above 6%.......after record easing, record stimulus we got 2.2% making it the WEAKEST recovery from recession in history BUT with the STRONGEST STOCK MARKET BOUNCE IN HISTORY....something is wrong.

The housing industry:

Prices have not yet stabilized, sales have not began a meaningful rebound, withback drop of record intervention, home buyer credit, falling prices, lowest interest rates.....a 5% or below rate, tax credits etc can't goose sales? and the comps with last year are weak weak weak!!!!


I mentioned IIAA polls show almost 3 to 1 BULLS one of the more LOPSIDED surveys taken, with BEARS showing scant 16.9%....a similar reading found near the OCT 2007 top.


2.5 years after FED easing began....STILL LOSING jobs at alarming rate......but hey it's getting better is what they say.....I say we're in a downward spiral maybe interrupted by temp help and census hiring....all non permanent. 10% rate surely understated.

SMALL BUSINESSES can't get credit, this is where 90% of job growth comes from and THEY ARE LAGGING any "recovery"

WHY HASN'T EASING WORKED ITS VOODOO THIS TIME? you cannot REFLATE a BURSTED BUBBLE. YOU CAN'T HIDE PROBLEMS, they won't go away (like marking mortgage paper at face value!!!!!!!!!!!! instead of MARKET VALUE)

SO we have seen enemic growth in the REAL ECONOMY, seeing proof of it in declining bank loans and consumer borrowing, FOLKS THAT IS CALLED "CONTRACTION" but the one thing THEY can manipulate is the STOCK MARKET......unintended price inflation in COMMODITIES drains MORE CASH from consumers AKA hiring heating bills from a frigid winter and gas for your car.

Hiring prices in energy may have hit Alcoa results.

In the ISM report only about a THIRD of those surveyed had seen any growth in business. 22% said they were hiring.

We have so many UNDEREMPLOYED there will be little growth until at least they are put back full time.

ALUMINUM used in a LOT of different industries, why Alcoa results important, so when you see revenues miss estimated and fall compared to last yr qtr, one should be concerned.

We are on STIM life support, take any of it away and we are cooked.

ALL this is the backdrop for a SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY????????? hiding losses on the banksters sheets or FEDS with ACCOUNTING RULE CHANGE?????

NOT the backdrop I would think anyone would be very comfortable....ALL IN? LET IT RIDE???? Sounds like Las Vegas...... IT AINT ON YOUR SIDE OF LEDGER UNTIL YOU CASH OUT.

A horrid thought but I must bring it up....what next if it is seen at some point down the road that ALL THIS STUFF HASN'T WORKED????? what do they do DOUBLE DOWN?

Current policies IMHO are HURTING the economy, businesses dont know how health care will effect them on top of all else making them MORE reluctant to hire and expand. CHOPPING HEADS and other overhead has brought some profits back to life, but one companies CHOP is another's customer!!!!!!!

What new meaningful financial reforms? On one knee.....I'll pray.....

Duratek all JMHO

ARE YOU KIDDING ME????????????????????

WASINGTON The Federal Reserve made record profits last year of about $45 billion that will be returned to the coffers at the U.S. Treasury, The Washington Post reported on Monday.
The Post said the figure, which it said was according to its own calculations based on public records, would be the highest earnings in the Fed's 96-year history.

The newspaper noted that much of the profits came about because of the Fed's program of buying bonds with the aim of driving down interest rates and fueling growth in the hobbled U.S. economy.

The Fed's balance sheet — a broad measure that tracks the central bank's lending — stands at about $2.2 trillion, more than double the level before the economic crisis struck in the fall of 2008.

OMG what are they talking about???? dont they sit on a bunch of crappy toxic paper?????? what am I missing ? record profits???????? "won't let any crisis go unappreciated?"

SO let me get this straight, the FED policies induce financial crisis. Then they come in lower rates to ZERO, double their balance sheet, declare victory as SAVIOR!!!......and make 'RECORD PROFITS"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't stand it



Alcoa results "KICKING OFF" earnings season were a wet noodle last night missing BADLY showing a profit of just ONE THIN PENNY on reduced revenues compared to previous yr qtr.

'ANALysts' expecting 6 cents. with 4% GDP projected by many EXPERTS how do we reach 36% INCREASE in SPX profits?

Is it better out there? maybe marginally, but we sure as shit don't have V shaped rebound that I can promise you. WHat we got V shaped is rhetoric, hype and BS. OH and the price of oil and gold....and BANKSTER BONUSES


Monday, January 11, 2010


*update* More signs of a ST top are showing up and chances are growing for a correction to the ongoing uptrend, IMHO

Alcoa Earnings Miss Forecasts; Sales Top Expectations
Published: Monday, 11 Jan 2010 4:34 PM ET

Alcoa reversed a loss from a year earlier, but still reported earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's estimates.

The aluminum giant said after markets closed Monday that it earned 1 cent a share excluding one-time items in the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of 28 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Sales for the most recent quarter hit $5.43 billion, down from $5.688 billion last year. **(note comparisons to last year should be EASY to beat, yet still DOWN from same last year.....but stock had nearly quadrupled....economy revived? or falling more slowly?)

Analysts who follow Alcoa expected it to report a profit of 6 cents a share on revenue of $4.817 billion, according to a consensus estimate compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Vix has fallen back to levels not seen since before the crisis.



If you understand to the extent stimulus has been applied, and ZERO interest rates, previous GDP at 2.2% had to be one of the weakest rebounds based on historic stimulus efforts.

Add to that FACT that Banks are sitting on TONS OF CASH, so FED policy may help banks but what good if money doesn't get out into economy? HERE IS PROOF FED POLICY IS FLAWED.

What good is FED policy if BANK LENDING IS CONTRACTING? I had read where that contraction in range of 7%, this kind of contraction is what you read about when studying Kondratief .

VELOCITY OF MONEY? has not rebounded and is languishing at VERY DEPRESSED LEVELS.

TAX RECEIPTS HAVE PLUNGED.....what proof of "recovery" without recovery here?

IIAA polls are back to bullish ratio last seen near 2007 top.
$ has begun to fall again.
Little guy still hard into bonds, be careful out there.



If you read the headlines, you will be convinced that CHinese exports are rising, that world economic demand is increasing, and that here in the US a REAL economic revival has begun, the worst is over.

The US stock is said to be a predictor of the economy...I say BS! Earnings topped in 1997, in 2000 the real economy was already in contraction, and the bubble economy had burst with the most blatant penny stock speculative bubble ever seen.....just as stocks were hitting their highs!

MONTHS before 2007 top, there was financial stress and EXCESS OF FEAR drove stocks to their March 2009 bottom, NOT the economy's bottom.

We are at HISTORICAL HIGHS in comparing the WELL TO DO from the median income folks....never a good thing. With 2.4 MILLION defaults ready to POP the PLAN TO ASSIST homeowners has resulted in a PATHETIC 31,000 mortgage adjustments, and BANKS are SLOW with paper work and RESISTANT to LOWER PRINCIPAL OWED.

REAL WAGES without voodoo economics have STALLED, and the Consumer does not have the room to increase DEBT for consumption as he once did. We have fueled economic activity with these failed FED policies that allowed easy money and EXPLOSION of indebtedness.....can't go there again and that also resulted in the LOSS of MILLIONS of high paying manufacturing jobs.

Did all those in related housing, mortgage and construction suddenly get rehired? is there another BOOM in the works? Are businesses hring again? WHERE pray tell is that demand coming from and how is it being financed? There is little or NO HOME EQUITY to draw upon, tightening bank lending and slack demand are the new reality.

ADD TO THAT HIGH OIL PRICES......and this has begun to dampen already depressed spending levels as home heating has begun to rise along with $3 gas and $80 PLUS OIL....and this filters into the entire economy as goods need to get from pt A to B.

OIL is NOT RISING FROM INCREASED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY....but from stupid FED policies and speculation, I said before THIS DOES NOT END WELL.

The stock markets enthusiasm, built on manipulation HFT, and liquidity flow will not last forever, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me......we're stupid but we're not dumb.


Saturday, January 09, 2010



There is no way I am aware of to precdict WHEN a CRASH will occur, only 2 I am aware of last 100 years, 1929 and 1987.

Doug Noland's "ISSUES 2010"

Understand what environment you are investing in. If your near retirement and don't need access to ALL your money at once, guaranteed account annuities may be worth looking into. One I heard today offer 8% guaranteed returns with a 10% BONUS paid up front from day one.

What you give up to get this is freedom of that money for a STREAM of monthly payments. I have 2 smaller accounts in one called GRIP but at 6%. You can put the money into mutual funds and depending on the RULES can after usually 3 years pull all money out if you want or anytime after that should your investments better 8% a year, forgo the guarantee which occurs when you ANNUITIZE IT.

The environment is chasing momo, valuations extremely high, backdrop of fundamentals extremely weak IMHO, volume weak, dividend yield near historic lows.....inflation lurking, delfation lurking.....HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT.....can companies RAMP UP earnings when most cost cutting is over?

During Holidays usually you get good employment report, FRI was "much worse than expected" and in this cycle, nobody cares or excuses it away with "the market is telling us the economy is heating up, OIL at $82 is telling us economy is heating up...." I dont agree.



After initial rise from 2003 lows began with RSI fully overbought, it gave us a 1,000 pt Dow decline before going sideways for a LONG PERIOD, before FINAL BLOW OFF into 2007 top.
One of my most trusted sources has long market history data and educated ass test says early stages of the rally still in effect. Market is now fully overbought and at risk of a decline....which should not derail firm uptrend which began in matter what back drop is, paper assets rise when liquidity flows their way....until that ends. There has been NO SUBSTANTIAL SELLING RISE and until we get to a level where SELLERS can regain control, it may be true, stranger than fiction the rally is far from over.
ONLY technical data saying trouble for the bull trend would throw water on the fire.
FED has began JAW BONING about rising interest rates, OIL now above $82 is not good for economy, good for OIL companies, bad for everyone else. GOLD uptrend is firmly intact.
I don't see SUBSTANTIAL improvement in fundamental data, the stock market is divorced from our reality and can stay that way for longer than you think. SPX 1250 not a crazy target....gotta go, maybe more later.


Test of the break? IS the direction for interest rates now firmly higher?

Friday, January 08, 2010


2010 SPX ESTIMATES many suggesting as much as $74 and if you use a 17 X multiple you get 1,250 SPX potential target.

That is one of my overally optimistic targets, and if reached IMHO would be best chance of ending this rally if the TA comes in line to support that.

SOme things support it now, but there isn't much selling so how could I conclude the slling begins tomorrow. Prechter looks like a fool now doesn't he, as he went 2X short awhile aint that easy.

WHEN the music stops it is going to get ugly again, not much of the issue has been dealt with, thank the HTF for a good bit of the rise. MUCH if not all of the bearishness has been wrung out...without barely a whimper of real improvement in anyone's life.

I was hearing snip after snip on way home from MANY OBAMA speaches where he promises "transparency and the national health care debate will be on CSPAN" haaaaaaa liar never was.

Like I said he's another whore in a suit for the money. sorry if that upsets anyone....

Because real issues and what got us into this mess not dealt with, the BAnksters are stronger bigger than ever, and they are ready to dole out near RECORD bonuses...a fact.

No ONE is held accountable for the crisis, no real changes of laws, protection....just speaches.

I say this all ends badly.....I better get my LCD BIG SCREEN before its too late.

Now it certainly looks and feels like the market will never go down......




A HUGE MISS -8,000 expected but -85,000 jobs we got and we need 125,000 JOBS CREATED to just break even, and yet 10.0% unemployment more here

You go with flow to make money, but I have repeated often I don't see the underlying improvement to economy we should be seeing by now and SOONER OR LATER the manipulated Bankster rally will be halted and stocks begin to reflect some reality.

Most I talked to had felt we would get UPSIDE SURPRISE to numbers, I vehemently disagreed.

Hey good news folks, maybe FED will continue this LOSER POLICY OF ZERO rates even as gas rises above $3 and it is shown to be totally INEFFECTIVE in creating jobs, all the ZERO RATE AND FED policy does is line the pockets of the Banksternista's.


Thursday, January 07, 2010

GAG ME WITH A SPOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The AIG bailout isn't going away, much as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner might like it to.
The $180 billion fiasco was back in the news Thursday, after Bloomberg reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prodded the troubled insurer at the end of 2008 to withhold some gory details of its bailout deal from the public.
The instructions came at a time when Geithner, who is now the Treasury secretary, led the New York Fed. Along with Fed chief Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Geithner was one of the key architects of the federal response to the economic meltdown of 2008.
The New York Fed says the final decision on disclosures always rested with AIG *(WE KNOW THEY COULD BE TRUSTED>???????)(AIG, Fortune 500), which since September 2008 has been propped up by multiple infusions of taxpayer funds. But the claim rings hollow, given all the bailout-information jockeying of the past year.
Around the time the New York Fed was striking details from an AIG securities filing, former Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) chief Ken Lewis was deciding not to let investors in on what a disaster the bank's purchase of brokerage firm Merrill Lynch was shaping up to be.
Lewis claimed Paulson and Bernanke pressured him not to disclose growing losses at Merrill to shareholders -- a claim the policymakers rejected and that many observers pooh-poohed.

***I WANT TO KNOW ONE THING....WHO HAS GONE TO JAIL and isnt enjoying their summer home and VAIL TRIPS etc.......NO ONE!!!!! BLEEP ME

EXPECT UPSIDE SURPRISE MAYBE JOB REPORT and we know we can trust BLS data!




ULTIMATE GUIDES TO 2010 PREDICTIONS want ideas or see what many are "predicting"? knock yourself out




Have you ever seen a 100 Trillion Zimbabwe note? IT gets you a loaf of bread.

How does the Federal Gov hope to pay its EVER INCREASING budget deficits? only 2 ways: HIGHER TAXES (let's hit those "RICH" people....the ones who create jobs not the Banksters) or Increasing tax receipts from revved up economy.

When that doesn't cover the HOLE, only thing left is to PRINT, but that money NEVER makes it into the REAL ECONOMY to create MONETARY INFLATION unless loans are made!

tHE new normal IS A smaller economy WITH less jobs, SOME OF THE LOSSES WILL BE PERMANENT.

Expect meager long term stock market gains in % terms from here for some time to come IMHO.

Each of the last 2 BUBBLE BOOMS created by EASY MONEY (how much easier can ZERO % FED rate be?) have both ended BADLY with accumulated debt as % of GDP off the charts, and has not barely began its march back to the norm....which means CONTRACTION after 70 years of EXPANSION.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN if and when the FED ENDS this historic period of Quantitative Easing? Said to end this MArch? MAJOR TOPS are typical in MArch and OCT (bottoms too).

MORE GAINS possible, some companies WILL EXPAND and do well, can you pick them? Are their stocks a "good deal"?

Holding stocks only profitable if you can find someone willing to pay you MORE than you paid.....IMHO a PONZI SCHEME.

The BANKSTERS got theirs, no uprising. No disgust?

WHY WON'T BANKS LEND? NO real capital? and too few credit worthy willing to borrow.....this is the NEW NORMAL so many are willing to pay UP for?

BULLS got MOMO, no question, higher prices good chance......but I am pretty sure when it's over, this game....the BAG will be passed to same old bag holders, and end game will also be the same....END BADLY.

Has the ground work been laid, the foundation paved for a STABLE, SUSTAINABLE growing economy?

Jobless claims up at 8:30, have a good one.


Wednesday, January 06, 2010


WHichever way she breaks, a ST correction could be near.



Are YOU tired of BENDING OVER? GETTING SOLD OUT? HOSED? OBAMA just another front man for the monarchy and Banksters.....



psssssssstttttt OIL BACK TO $83

By Jessica Wohl
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Walgreen Co (NYSE:WAG - News) said sales at its drugstores open for at least a year fell 0.3 percent in December instead of rising as Wall Street had expected, as fewer customers came in and spent less when they did shop.



Recent uptrend still intact with sited resistance ahead and support V shaped bounce shown here.
We will watch for any possible BREAK of ZERO (0) in the ROC indicator below as a warning bell. It has managed to stay above since March rally began but has been non confirming in its weakness as markets around the world have rallied.
GAS is nearing $3 a gallon. Commodity prices have stayed inflated, even as DEMAND wanes and real signs of recovery are hard to find.
Instead of suffer the same fate as Japan since the 1980's and even worse the US Great Depression, the Gov's and FED printed and back stopped like no tomorrow in attempt to beat deflation. IMHO if indeed DEFLATION is whooped, we will get its nasty cousin HYPER INFLATION instead, does anyone really think we end will safe happy landing?
Here is a Shadow Stats PDF REPORT I suggest as always to READ what I offer, it will help you make your OWN mind up as to what lies ahead.
The US already owes Foreign Gov's near $14 TRILLION which is about 10% of our GDP as reported, this is likely to DOUBLE in the next 5 years.
The FED has bought near 50% of ALL TREASURY BONDS PRINTED! Foreign appetite has deminished for our debt at CURRENT YIELDS....unlike many here in this country who have crammed into them.
Some see rampant inflation near with MUCH higher interest rates, a collosal calamity.....other see 10 year yields falling below 2% !!! (Deflation camp)....what is more likely?
Added to recent budget needs is the escallation of troops in Afghanistan to the tune of near $30 BILLION a MONTH....this more than likely NOT on GOV balance sheets! held off in some kind of sneaky "suplimental spending thing"
You see inflation in all kinds of assets which would include the stock market, you don't see it where it was intended to help at the HOUSING PRICING LEVEL as recent stats showed a continued devaluation in existing home prices (and recently a whopping 16% decline in sales EVEN WITH GOV giveaways)
Not being talked about is the OVERWHELMING INVENTORY of unsold and foreclosed homes being held OFF the market........the stock market is full of BS if it is insinuating a V SHAPED recovery in anything but itself thanks to all those $'s sloshing around which have found a home.
Expect some data to misrepresent the real issues and weakness in months ahead as 100,000's get temp jobs for 10 yr census.
If we have V shaped recovery why then hasnt the GAO reversed its suspension of Mark To Market accounting from current mark to fantasy? BANKS DO NOT REFLECT current holdings valuations from a mkt standpt.
We need economy to HIRE about 150,000 a week to just cover new entries into job hunting, so now we celebrate a loss of only 450,000? we have LONG WAY TO GO.....FIRST part timers accepting that over loss of job need to be made full time......we have LONG WAY TO GO!

Tuesday, January 05, 2010


By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer , On Tuesday January 5, 2010, 10:36 am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes fell sharply in November, a sign sales will fall this winter, undermining last summer's recovery.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell 16 percent from October to a November reading of 96. It was the first decline following nine straight months of gains and the lowest reading since June.


OMG, Japan car sales have fallen to LOWEST LEVELS IN 38 YEARS!!!!! Despite benefitting from our AMAZING cash for klunkers plan as Japanese economy continues to slow.

Richard Koo PLEASE STAY AWAY from America! I read a Baron's article that said he is suggesting we follow what JApan did to avoid a Great Depresssion, have their government fill the SPENDING VOID.....yeah Richard that's worked out GREAT hasn't it? As the country is mired in deflationary stagnation caused by the bursting of a ? REAL ESTATE BANKING BUBBLE! uhmmm back in 1990??!!! their stock market is STILL barely 25% of what it was then! SO YUP let's follow their ideas of how NOT to pay the piper let's STRETCH out our issues over a generation.......

TRY THIS ON FOR SIZE, JAPAN IS ONLY BEATEN BY ZIMBABWE !!! for thier DEBT as % of GDP, this piece says we are at 60%....comforting.


There's a good reason why $TRILLIONS of intervention amounted to just 2.2% GDP gain and has has little effect in returning us to a SUSTAINABLE thriving can't print your way nor sweep your way under a rug to prosperity......values continue to fall yet there is no MARK TO MARKET VALUE for paper back by mortgages.

The UNPRESCEDENTED LIQUIDITY and intervention of 2009 is behind us, it is not likely that pace can be or will be kept up......and IMHO is the MAIN DRIVER OF STOCK PRICES THAT NEVER REACHED A BEAR BOTTOM VALUATION.

You don't deal with REAL ISSUES they just don't go away



By viewing weekly charts, we can get better idea what the day to day meanderings mean within the greater context of trend.
2010-2011 is the year of adjustable mortgage resets, and the higher this goes, the higher the NEW payment will be putting even MORE PRESSURE on the beleaguered economy.

Monday, January 04, 2010


To new rally highs along with SPX and RUT with TRANS lagging behind this time, oddly perhaps the VIX stayed above 20

88% up volume was heavy but VOLUME was light, a continuing issue that has not as yet stiffled the rally.

This is a momentum rally with little or NO under pinnings of valuations or yield, the 100 year PLUS history of the stock market has shown EVERY NEW GREAT SECULAR BULL began with PE ratios near dividend yield.

In 1982 the PE ratio and dividend yield were both near 6%. The current SPX dividend yield in UNDER 2% !!! MAJOR MKT TOP as in 2000 had 3% SPX yields!

I'm not saying themarket doesn't go higher, but for the short run I personally would be buying or adding at new highs, would prefer to buy on any weakness.

We are IN CYCLICAL BULL MKT but it's within a NASTY SECULAR BEAR MARKET and my guess much more PAIN awaits the day the piper needs his pay....but not today.


WOW WHAT A REBOUND! going unreported is the downard revison to last report and the bad miss this report.


Sunday, January 03, 2010


Companies sit with large stash of cash. BIG profits have been had mostly by lopping heads, overhead. Now it must be had by increasing revenues....can they?

Fact is the REAL data is had via tax receipts....2009 State level so far reported is down 9% and FED level down 18% and 2008 was VERY POOR.

Extreme moves are followed by extreme reactions..>VOILA 2009 rally.

We are STUCK in trading range the late DEC breakout came on WEAK volume and was rejected last trading day........more weakness should follow.....many think 2010 brings consolodation for next big move.....are we phase one or last phase of cyclical bull?

Look for BIG labor adj in FED model to show much larger job losses.......

BDI has stalled.......hip hip for sideways


Saturday, January 02, 2010

BULLISH ON ECONOMY FOR 2010 Hey I found one, see I'm not so one sided kind of guy?

Cliff Droke author of above link. DO we have enough doomers to be contrary? I don't know, that isn't what previous chart showing bull and bear differential is back above the 2007 top.

We would be so lucky to consolidate as we did in 2004-2006 the gains from 2002 lows....and in REAL LIFE we would be so blessed to have REAL JOB creation too.

I personally don't think can possibly retract the TRILLIONS of lquidity without an accident, they levitated us over the black hole but I think it only pushed back the inevitable....or every crisis could be met with a printing press to rewch Nirvana.

2010 may be best played by the most nimble and stock picker, I don't see repeat of 2009 in any way. More GOV stimulus gets doled out in 2010 also, is this a case where we NEED the GOV to step in and BUY BUY SPEND SPEND SPEND, because businesses refuse to do so?

Unwinding this historic gambit will need more black art than skill, there is NO way to do it and not upset the cart IMHO



*click to enlarge
Here in lies the dilema I have recently brought up. The US is bankrupt, and every year we need to finance more and more as a % of our GDP with NO end in sight.
To finance the "BAIL OUT of the BANKSTERS" we had to print some more....funny money. We have an ongoing war, more debt......unfunded liabilities MUCH more debt....our GOV doesn't know how to LIVE WITHIN THEIR MEANS>
Some of this gulf, the insatiable appetite to spend, will have to be made up in HIGHER TAXES.
Then we had the historic fear from finacial crisis, and in NEVER BEFORE SEEN numbers people got herded into Bonds and Bond Funds.....some $300B in 2009 compared to pitiful $30B or so in equity only funds.....quite the disparity.
SO we have a 25-27 yr old Bond BULL, we have RECORD (think EXTREME) amounts going into bond funds, record fear, andnow we have to fund RECORD DEBT......we have FED printing mney to buy the same bonds (monetizing). They say this QE will end in march of 2010.
I have shown rates long term 10 yr are turning up. If fear eases, it is SAID economy getting better....this kind of talk usually brings selling to bonds...yields rise.
We also know little guy almost always is buying when should sell, sell when should be buying...almost always wrong......and now has run into bonds in record numbers just as need for debt increasing and FED intervention nearing an end game.....
I fear a BOND CRASH.....and bond market measurably LARGER than stock market......and I hope I'm wrong.
OVER LIQUIFIED markets seeing FED and GOV backstop had an incredable 2009.....wiil that continue?


Yeah, I'm back, you ready to roll into 2010?



Friday, January 01, 2010


They seem to be at center of FEEDING trough since 1900's, and now thanks to hank Paulson (EX GS CEO) major competitors are gone, many EX GS employees at every orifice of GOV power and influence.....what stands in their way? NOTHING.
AS the avg American has either lost job, home or both, and has seen net worth plummet, GS has become biggest bank, biggest profits, biggest influence, biggest bonuses.
And so I ask myself what is next? The only left intact longest running bull market, well it WILL eventually BURST, they all do, and IMHO that has to be the BOND BULL/BUBBLE.
This hit me, at the VERY time GS has profitted and many others from the market rally in 2009, AVG JOE has stuck head in sand and it is reported bought into Bond Funds in HISTORIC RECORD AMOUNTS!!!!!!!!! and bought scantilly into equity funds an historic imbalance.
AT same time you can see HOW LONG (early 1980's) interest rates have been FALLING hitting generational lows as financial crisis hits it ZENITH into 2009. It is also true the "little guy" gets screwed every time, is buying when should be selling, is selling when should be buying, and now is in BOND FUNDS in RECORD AMOUNTS.....near RECORD LOWS in yields and RECORD HIGHS in DEMAND FOR DEBT...and GOV the MAIN SUPPORT for said market is FED PRINTING AND BUYING....and that won't last same time FOREIGN buyers are our needs for debt unseen that's a crowded trade....
The BOND MARKET IS EXPONENTIALLY LARGER THAN STOCK MARKET, what IF there IS a bubble and it has already or will soon BURST? well I am guessing you don't want to be there left HOLDING THE BAG.
Is my thinking wrong here? VIX hit generational HIGHS, fear sent most to the comfort of bonds....that was thevery point the smart money BEGAN BUYING THE HATED STOCK MARKET....volume has NOT BEEN THERE reaching a high in MARCH....prices keep rising.....there has not been a new high in new highs since aug.
I am NOT saying stock cannot continue to rally, what worries me is the explosion of the BOND MARKET which would seem inevitable and may already be in progress.
And Banks still benefit from not having to MARK TO MARKET the crummy CDO's and mortgage paper still held or whomever holds it....value has not yet stabilized.....and is not being shown at fair value nor maybe even on the books (off balance sheet).
It seems likely to me that after such a wonderful 2009 for stock (as in 2003 and 2004 following flat) a decline or consolidation may be under way and returns in stocks harder to know GS is thinking how to make money...right now.
Is the bond market an accident waiting to happen? I HOPE not, I THINK so.

START 2010 WITH HUMOR Not so funny "How Goldman Sachs made $50 B from economic collapse"

Real Estate Bubble collapse one of main causes of economic crisis, and all the bad paper tied to its declining value.

Most recent report showed NO reversal of falling value trend as prices have fallen further from 2008, ONLY thing keeping this from headlines and reality is suspension of real accounting as MARK TO MARKET BIT THE DUST.

At this rate expect 10 years of slogging around and little progress. WHile in ST Pete/Tampa I SAW SO many for sale signs.......

Expect some charts this weekend as I catch up, I don't know yet the fall back below break (1120) and back into trading range will lead to more selling as we start 2010

D..happy NY