http://prudentbear.com/articles/show/298 This is an EYE OPENER, the liquidity splurge that began at he 2002/3 lows is alive and well. It MUST continue to expand or die.
At some point it will end, when it does, there will be a worldwide implosion of historic proportions as equal to its expansion.
D
Monday, January 29, 2007
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Prudent Article
http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/299
Short term volatility does not mean uptrend is over, just getting more selective. When it does dry up I think we will have making of important top.
Year after mid-term elections tend to be jiggy, so we'll see. I like my MM return for now for safe stash, ride trends with a little.
Commercials upping shorts on gold, no weakness yet. Watch interest rates, bonds getting oversold IMHO due for rebound of sorts, see if 4.% holds any retreat, seem headed for 5%
D
Short term volatility does not mean uptrend is over, just getting more selective. When it does dry up I think we will have making of important top.
Year after mid-term elections tend to be jiggy, so we'll see. I like my MM return for now for safe stash, ride trends with a little.
Commercials upping shorts on gold, no weakness yet. Watch interest rates, bonds getting oversold IMHO due for rebound of sorts, see if 4.% holds any retreat, seem headed for 5%
D
Thursday, January 25, 2007
HIJACKED DEMOCRACY by THE FAT CATS
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/darkside/ I KNOW the facts, the LIES, the DECEIT, this show laid it all out. and now our boys pay the price with blood.
Democracy has been hijacked, and we're getting jacked up! And now against Congress and the wishes of the American public, BVush sends 20,000 more troops to Iraq.
D
FORD POSTS WORST LOST IN HISTORY
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070125/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_ford HOLY &%!!@ over $12 B !!
Did you know the CHinese are now NET EXPORTERS of commodities? GOLD and copper were flying as they were net importers, is commodity bull over?
D
Did you know the CHinese are now NET EXPORTERS of commodities? GOLD and copper were flying as they were net importers, is commodity bull over?
D
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
OIL USAGE DROPS IN 2006
SeekingAlpha
Reflecting On 2006: Oil Usage Dropped in Developed NationsWednesday January 24, 5:35 am ET
Neal Dikeman submits : Thank you to the millions that used less oil in 2006. For the first time in 20 years, the International Energy Agency shows that oil consumption in the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell 0.6% in 2006. The drop was slight, but most encouraging to all who seek energy independence, averting a climate crisis and healing an economy “addicted to oil.”
Yes, global oil demand did grow in 2006, but only by 0.9% in 2006, compared to 3.9% growth in 2004 and 1.5% in 2005. Oil demand may be moderating for a number of reasons, including these:
1. When oil prices rose, demand shifted to more energy efficiency.2. Some vehicles have become more fuel efficient by reducing vehicle weight, air and road resistance, and by using hybrid technology.3. Less heating oil was needed due to global warming.4. The Kyoto Protocol is starting to work.5. Biofuels are increasingly used to substitute for fuels refined from oil.6. Clean distributed energy and more reliable grids reduced the usage of diesel generators, propane and butane.7. The ratio of people living in cities increased relative to suburbs. Oil demand per person is less in cities due to effective public transit and closer proximity of home and work. The U.N. forecasts that 80% of people will live in cities by 2050.8. More people are riding together by car pooling and using public transit.9. Trucks and buses are reducing the wasteful idling that keeps engines running up to 40% more than is necessary. Use of auxiliary power units are increasing.10. People spend more time working and shopping at home using broadband Internet services.
Neal Dikeman commented on the OECD drop, “That really is huge news. Supply and demand economics does work after all, despite what some people may think. Historically, new supply discoveries drove price declines (in the first half of the century). Since OPEC however, supply shocks and constraints have driven major price increases, and overestimated demand / negative demand shocks have driven declines.” Mr. Dikeman is a merchant banker, originally from Houston, Texas, and now a partner with Jane Capital.
Moderation of oil usage is timely. Next week, the first phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be released. This will be a major update from the respected 2001 report that involved hundreds of leading scientists globally. "The smoking gun is definitely lying on the table as we speak," said top U.S. climate scientist Jerry Mahlman, who reviewed all 1,600 pages of the first segment of a giant four-part report. "The evidence ... is compelling." (See CNN Report.)
As the oil reduction numbers are analyzed, a picture may emerge about how to continue our path to a brighter future. To all of you who conserved – Thank You!
Author John Addison will be coming out with his book, "Save Gas, Save the Planet" shortly
Reflecting On 2006: Oil Usage Dropped in Developed NationsWednesday January 24, 5:35 am ET
Neal Dikeman submits : Thank you to the millions that used less oil in 2006. For the first time in 20 years, the International Energy Agency shows that oil consumption in the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell 0.6% in 2006. The drop was slight, but most encouraging to all who seek energy independence, averting a climate crisis and healing an economy “addicted to oil.”
Yes, global oil demand did grow in 2006, but only by 0.9% in 2006, compared to 3.9% growth in 2004 and 1.5% in 2005. Oil demand may be moderating for a number of reasons, including these:
1. When oil prices rose, demand shifted to more energy efficiency.2. Some vehicles have become more fuel efficient by reducing vehicle weight, air and road resistance, and by using hybrid technology.3. Less heating oil was needed due to global warming.4. The Kyoto Protocol is starting to work.5. Biofuels are increasingly used to substitute for fuels refined from oil.6. Clean distributed energy and more reliable grids reduced the usage of diesel generators, propane and butane.7. The ratio of people living in cities increased relative to suburbs. Oil demand per person is less in cities due to effective public transit and closer proximity of home and work. The U.N. forecasts that 80% of people will live in cities by 2050.8. More people are riding together by car pooling and using public transit.9. Trucks and buses are reducing the wasteful idling that keeps engines running up to 40% more than is necessary. Use of auxiliary power units are increasing.10. People spend more time working and shopping at home using broadband Internet services.
Neal Dikeman commented on the OECD drop, “That really is huge news. Supply and demand economics does work after all, despite what some people may think. Historically, new supply discoveries drove price declines (in the first half of the century). Since OPEC however, supply shocks and constraints have driven major price increases, and overestimated demand / negative demand shocks have driven declines.” Mr. Dikeman is a merchant banker, originally from Houston, Texas, and now a partner with Jane Capital.
Moderation of oil usage is timely. Next week, the first phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be released. This will be a major update from the respected 2001 report that involved hundreds of leading scientists globally. "The smoking gun is definitely lying on the table as we speak," said top U.S. climate scientist Jerry Mahlman, who reviewed all 1,600 pages of the first segment of a giant four-part report. "The evidence ... is compelling." (See CNN Report.)
As the oil reduction numbers are analyzed, a picture may emerge about how to continue our path to a brighter future. To all of you who conserved – Thank You!
Author John Addison will be coming out with his book, "Save Gas, Save the Planet" shortly
Friday, January 19, 2007
OIL INVENTORIES
EnergyOil Tumbles After Inventory BuildBy Simon ConstableTheStreet.com Staff Reporter1/18/2007 3:47 PM ESTURL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/energy/10333313.htmlUpdated from 2:14 p.m. EST
Oil prices fell again Thursday and neared the psychologically important $50 level following news of higher inventories in the U.S.
Front-month crude contracts closed down $1.76 to $50.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and other key products in the energy space were lower, as well. Heating oil was down 3 cents at $1.47 a gallon, while gasoline was lower by 2 cents to $1.36 a gallon.
Natural gas was the one riser, gaining 9 cents to $6.32 per million British thermal units.
The decline in oil came after the Energy Information Administration said that stocks of crude oil grew 2.2% last week to 322 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel oils also were up, the EIA said.
"It seems the world is flush with oil, especially relative to recent years," says Peter Rodriguez, professor of economics at the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration and an energy market watcher. "This is the opposite of what one would expect this time of year," he says, noting that warm weather had reduced demand for heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.
With inventories so high, Rodriguez expects crude prices to remain closer to $50 a barrel than $60 for the next several weeks. In turn, that should help keep a lid on consumer price inflation, he says.
The energy exchange-traded funds -- the U.S. Oil (USO) fund and the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Index (OIL) -- were both losing 2.2% in recent action.
Turning to the energy complex, Fortis Bank upped its stock price target on Range Resources (RRC) to $36 a share from $32 and reiterated a buy rating. The stock was recently down 0.5% at $27.62.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital Markets hit Whiting Petroleum (WLL) with a downgrade, cutting its rating on the stock to underperform from sector perform. Shares recently were down 75 cents, or 1.8%, at $41.60.
Among the major energy companies, Exxon Mobil (XOM) was losing 1.1%, while Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was down a fraction.
Oil prices fell again Thursday and neared the psychologically important $50 level following news of higher inventories in the U.S.
Front-month crude contracts closed down $1.76 to $50.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and other key products in the energy space were lower, as well. Heating oil was down 3 cents at $1.47 a gallon, while gasoline was lower by 2 cents to $1.36 a gallon.
Natural gas was the one riser, gaining 9 cents to $6.32 per million British thermal units.
The decline in oil came after the Energy Information Administration said that stocks of crude oil grew 2.2% last week to 322 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel oils also were up, the EIA said.
"It seems the world is flush with oil, especially relative to recent years," says Peter Rodriguez, professor of economics at the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration and an energy market watcher. "This is the opposite of what one would expect this time of year," he says, noting that warm weather had reduced demand for heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.
With inventories so high, Rodriguez expects crude prices to remain closer to $50 a barrel than $60 for the next several weeks. In turn, that should help keep a lid on consumer price inflation, he says.
The energy exchange-traded funds -- the U.S. Oil (USO) fund and the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Index (OIL) -- were both losing 2.2% in recent action.
Turning to the energy complex, Fortis Bank upped its stock price target on Range Resources (RRC) to $36 a share from $32 and reiterated a buy rating. The stock was recently down 0.5% at $27.62.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital Markets hit Whiting Petroleum (WLL) with a downgrade, cutting its rating on the stock to underperform from sector perform. Shares recently were down 75 cents, or 1.8%, at $41.60.
Among the major energy companies, Exxon Mobil (XOM) was losing 1.1%, while Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was down a fraction.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
BERNANKE SPEAKS
"If early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened," Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee.
It marked the Fed chief's most extensive comments to date on the challenges facing the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers, the oldest of whom will start retiring next year.
This huge wave of retirees will hit the U.S. budget as well as the economy, he said.
Absent policy changes by Congress and the White House, rising budget deficits are likely in the years ahead to increase the amount of federal debt outstanding to unprecedented levels, Bernanke said.
That could propel interest rates for consumers and businesses upward, which would be a worrisome development, he said.
"Thus a vicious cycle may develop in which large deficits lead to rapid growth in debt and interest payments, which in turn adds to subsequent deficits," he said.
THIS IS POLITICAL SUICIDE, NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH THE $TRILLIONS OF UNFUNDED LIABILITIES NEAR $70 TRILLION, THIS CAN'T BE PUT OFF FOREVER.
2007 mild? 2008 BAMM!!!
It marked the Fed chief's most extensive comments to date on the challenges facing the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers, the oldest of whom will start retiring next year.
This huge wave of retirees will hit the U.S. budget as well as the economy, he said.
Absent policy changes by Congress and the White House, rising budget deficits are likely in the years ahead to increase the amount of federal debt outstanding to unprecedented levels, Bernanke said.
That could propel interest rates for consumers and businesses upward, which would be a worrisome development, he said.
"Thus a vicious cycle may develop in which large deficits lead to rapid growth in debt and interest payments, which in turn adds to subsequent deficits," he said.
THIS IS POLITICAL SUICIDE, NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH THE $TRILLIONS OF UNFUNDED LIABILITIES NEAR $70 TRILLION, THIS CAN'T BE PUT OFF FOREVER.
2007 mild? 2008 BAMM!!!
Friday, January 12, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
CASH IS TRASH>>>?????
Recent Bill Auction Results
Per $100 CUSIP YIELD
28-DAY 01-11-2007 02-08-2007 4.800 4.885 99.626667 912795YS4
91-DAY 01-11-2007 04-12-2007 4.940 5.072 98.751278 912795ZB0
WHY RISK MONEY IN MARKET WITH 5% 90 day yields??????
D
Per $100 CUSIP YIELD
28-DAY 01-11-2007 02-08-2007 4.800 4.885 99.626667 912795YS4
91-DAY 01-11-2007 04-12-2007 4.940 5.072 98.751278 912795ZB0
WHY RISK MONEY IN MARKET WITH 5% 90 day yields??????
D
Monday, January 08, 2007
FABER SAYS CAUTION WARRANTED
Global Markets Face `Severe Correction,' Faber Says (Update3)
By Ian C. Sayson and Pimm Fox
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who predicted the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, said global assets are poised for a ``severe correction'' and says it's time to sell.
``In the next few months, we could get a severe correction in all asset markets,'' Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. ``In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate.''
Faber, founder and managing director of Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd., advised investors to buy gold in 2001, which has since more than doubled. His company manages about $300 million in assets.
The bullish outlook of traders in everything from bonds, equities and commodities to real estate and art suggests valuations are peaking, Faber said. Last year, the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index of developed stock markets jumped 18 percent, while a survey of Wall Street's biggest bond- trading firms predicted U.S. Treasuries will post the best gains in five years during 2007.
``I am not a great buyer of assets now,'' Faber said. ``We may be in a situation where consumer-price inflation comes back and will have a negative impact on the valuation of assets.''
Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, does have some favorites. Singapore and Vietnam are his top picks in Asia because stocks in Singapore aren't ``terribly expensive compared with interest rates'' in the city-state, while Vietnam's equities have ``incredible potential in the long run.''
Vietnam, Singapore
Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Stock Index more than doubled last year and was Asia's best-performing benchmark. Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 27 percent, beating a 15 percent increase in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index.
So far in 2007, Vietnam's index has surged 10 percent, again leading gains in the region, and Singapore's is up 0.6 percent. The MSCI has dropped 1 percent.
Faber recommends investors steer clear of shares in the world's biggest developing economies after the emerging markets in 2006 outperformed their developed counterparts for a fifth straight year.
``Emerging markets could get kicked in the next three months so I'd be careful of buying Russian shares,'' Faber said. ``I'd also be careful of buying China and India shares now.''
Russia's dollar-denominated RTS Index surged 75 percent last year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies, jumped 94 percent. India's Sensex Index, which more than quadrupled in the past five years, is valued at 25 times estimated earnings.
Thailand, Japan
Faber also advises investors stay away from shares in Thailand, where he and his family are based. The nation's SET Index has been the world's worst-performing benchmark in the past month, sliding 15 percent as currency controls introduced by the central bank and bombs in Bangkok spooked investors.
``Valuations in Thailand are very inexpensive but I wouldn't buy tomorrow,'' said Faber. `` We have some political problems in Thailand right now. I'd wait for a couple of months.''
The SET is valued at 10 times estimated earnings, the lowest among 14 Asia-Pacific markets tracked by Bloomberg. MSCI's regional index is valued at 18 times.
On a more positive note, Japanese stocks may prove good bets this year, Faber said. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 6.9 percent in 2006 and the broader Topix index added 1.9 percent, the smallest gains among benchmarks for the world's 10 biggest markets.
Gold, Oil
In addition, the fund manager said gold should rally further on expectations that supply of the precious metal will decline and demand for it will increase to hedge against inflation. Gold climbed 23 percent last year, its sixth year of gains.
``The price of gold will continue to go up and probably very substantially,'' Faber said. ``In the long run, it's very clear that central banks are basically increasing the supply of money and the supply of gold is obviously very limited.''
Oil prices are also tipped to rise as political instability in the Middle East and other petroleum-producing areas threatens supply and global demand increases. Crude oil in New York added less than 0.1 percent to $61.05 a barrel in 2006, after tripling in the previous four years.
``Everyday the world is burning more oil than new reserves are added,'' Faber said. ``You wont see $12 dollars again'' for every barrel of oil. ``The trend is likely more to be upside because demand in Asia is going to double over time.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Ian C. Sayson in Manila at isayson@bloomberg.net and Pimm Fox in New York at at Pfox11@bloomberg.net
By Ian C. Sayson and Pimm Fox
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who predicted the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, said global assets are poised for a ``severe correction'' and says it's time to sell.
``In the next few months, we could get a severe correction in all asset markets,'' Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. ``In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate.''
Faber, founder and managing director of Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd., advised investors to buy gold in 2001, which has since more than doubled. His company manages about $300 million in assets.
The bullish outlook of traders in everything from bonds, equities and commodities to real estate and art suggests valuations are peaking, Faber said. Last year, the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index of developed stock markets jumped 18 percent, while a survey of Wall Street's biggest bond- trading firms predicted U.S. Treasuries will post the best gains in five years during 2007.
``I am not a great buyer of assets now,'' Faber said. ``We may be in a situation where consumer-price inflation comes back and will have a negative impact on the valuation of assets.''
Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, does have some favorites. Singapore and Vietnam are his top picks in Asia because stocks in Singapore aren't ``terribly expensive compared with interest rates'' in the city-state, while Vietnam's equities have ``incredible potential in the long run.''
Vietnam, Singapore
Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Stock Index more than doubled last year and was Asia's best-performing benchmark. Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 27 percent, beating a 15 percent increase in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index.
So far in 2007, Vietnam's index has surged 10 percent, again leading gains in the region, and Singapore's is up 0.6 percent. The MSCI has dropped 1 percent.
Faber recommends investors steer clear of shares in the world's biggest developing economies after the emerging markets in 2006 outperformed their developed counterparts for a fifth straight year.
``Emerging markets could get kicked in the next three months so I'd be careful of buying Russian shares,'' Faber said. ``I'd also be careful of buying China and India shares now.''
Russia's dollar-denominated RTS Index surged 75 percent last year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies, jumped 94 percent. India's Sensex Index, which more than quadrupled in the past five years, is valued at 25 times estimated earnings.
Thailand, Japan
Faber also advises investors stay away from shares in Thailand, where he and his family are based. The nation's SET Index has been the world's worst-performing benchmark in the past month, sliding 15 percent as currency controls introduced by the central bank and bombs in Bangkok spooked investors.
``Valuations in Thailand are very inexpensive but I wouldn't buy tomorrow,'' said Faber. `` We have some political problems in Thailand right now. I'd wait for a couple of months.''
The SET is valued at 10 times estimated earnings, the lowest among 14 Asia-Pacific markets tracked by Bloomberg. MSCI's regional index is valued at 18 times.
On a more positive note, Japanese stocks may prove good bets this year, Faber said. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 6.9 percent in 2006 and the broader Topix index added 1.9 percent, the smallest gains among benchmarks for the world's 10 biggest markets.
Gold, Oil
In addition, the fund manager said gold should rally further on expectations that supply of the precious metal will decline and demand for it will increase to hedge against inflation. Gold climbed 23 percent last year, its sixth year of gains.
``The price of gold will continue to go up and probably very substantially,'' Faber said. ``In the long run, it's very clear that central banks are basically increasing the supply of money and the supply of gold is obviously very limited.''
Oil prices are also tipped to rise as political instability in the Middle East and other petroleum-producing areas threatens supply and global demand increases. Crude oil in New York added less than 0.1 percent to $61.05 a barrel in 2006, after tripling in the previous four years.
``Everyday the world is burning more oil than new reserves are added,'' Faber said. ``You wont see $12 dollars again'' for every barrel of oil. ``The trend is likely more to be upside because demand in Asia is going to double over time.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Ian C. Sayson in Manila at isayson@bloomberg.net and Pimm Fox in New York at at Pfox11@bloomberg.net
Monday, January 01, 2007
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CLICK FOR LINK.
level is DEAD ON JAN high, so NO growth since then. DEAD ON the lows from that peak.. WILL JAN look like 2006 with a meteoric VAULT? ANY further decline destroys a multi yr if not decade pattern of yr/yr higher highs!!!!
MARGIN DEBT LEVELS APPROACHING 2000 levels!!! 1,3 and 6 month/month RECORDS for increase.
THIS market is HIGHLY LEVEREDGED for GAINS!!!!!! as was or more so than in 2000 !!!
I say some kind of top appears first 2 weeks of JAN, then MIGHT pay off to be short term......short........will be very interesting going forward.
2007 is a year after mid term elections, known to be bullish.
D
level is DEAD ON JAN high, so NO growth since then. DEAD ON the lows from that peak.. WILL JAN look like 2006 with a meteoric VAULT? ANY further decline destroys a multi yr if not decade pattern of yr/yr higher highs!!!!
MARGIN DEBT LEVELS APPROACHING 2000 levels!!! 1,3 and 6 month/month RECORDS for increase.
THIS market is HIGHLY LEVEREDGED for GAINS!!!!!! as was or more so than in 2000 !!!
I say some kind of top appears first 2 weeks of JAN, then MIGHT pay off to be short term......short........will be very interesting going forward.
2007 is a year after mid term elections, known to be bullish.
D
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