http://www.independencejournal.com/today.htm
lots to read but as most want to sweep under rug or ignore real issues, the reality is problems still exist, and are not being addressed and won't just go away.
*posting from my iPhone , copy and paste link for web article
Fed has made sure, returns don't exist for savers.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
TIL NEXT YEAR
last post of the year for me, (really) another wave count proposed to me that does seem to fit.
Remember, the volume is next to nothing, JAN 2010 will be very telling, best to all and happy holidays and New Years.
I will be open to any outcome, I am hopeful, even pray for better days for all in the New Years. I will present the economy andmarket as I see it, to the best of my ability and as always will warn hopefully again when the time comes to hunker down and get out of Dodge....or you may believe we have embarked on a new age of growth and prosperity......you would also then believe this begins with the world its most indebted and consumers most underwater, banks least wanting to lend, businesses to invest....well gee nowhere to go but up?
Duratek
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
IS THIS what you'd think you'd see for GS while the S and P is hitting FRESH NEW RALLY HIGHS???
VIX near 19.....as long as VIX is declining stocks will rally.
D
2010 PREDICTIONS
WHAT WILL 2010 BRING INVESTORS? ONE OPINION HERE
One thng for sure, it's been one helluva 2009, but one which saw the avg investor withdraw from equities and pile maybe historically into bonds. The institutional investor is on avg back into stocks.
The bulk of gov stimulus lies ahead, companies have shred vast amounts of overhead and costs and stripped down naked to grow profits with slowing or lower revenues. Financials have been able to raise money and repay a big chunk of money used for bailouts, gee what is not to like?
When I've made decent returns in the past, it has always been from STOCK PICKING, it's probably what I do best. 2 bubbles and 2 pops turned me conservative in that regard, pile on personal business stress, and I pulled in my horns. I accept that, and did what I felt best at the time, which was to protect any asset I had from losses.
When adding in the stock market has gone nowhere in 10 years, I am way ahead of the game, but now what?
Won't businesses need to begin adding workers, for us to really begin the next leg of optimism? With 65% gains from bottom, is it good idea to predict full speed ahead? with only one small retrace of 10%.
We may switch to stock pickers market. We could experience a market like 2004-2005 which mostly went sideways. Consolidating here around 1120 the 50% FIV from highs to lows MAY just have been gathering steam and basing foundation to break out above......hmmm and Precther said short with leverage???
The MARKET TEALEAVES show weakening selling, and growing investor appetite for stocks. Even as other divergences exist, so far have not led to declines.
Many think GOLD may begin to shine again, this AM back above 1100.
FED action threw market into reverse and has defeated 2 Bear markets in a row. Money suppoly to do this has more than doubled in short period of time, banks hold RECORD excess reserves and should this money get lent out in any volume would lead to catostrophic inflation.
This has nothappened as yet and I do not beleive the FED can control it, certainly not w/o raising rates aggresively, which would kill economy.
We are again floating on a sea of debt, and deficits w/o major revival of economy......so for my point of view we have achieved for now a resurrection of bullish stock action but when it ends IMHO no new era has been induced, but more than likely an even worse MONSTER has been forming and when it goes.....will bring down the FED and many of these policies which lead to boom bust cycles.
But game is still on until selling pressure begins to build enough to derail current environment where stocks have risen mostly from withdrawl of selling.
DO you believe the netry by little guy still is in wings? because there is a shitpile of cah there...OR has SO MUCH DAMAGE been down last 2 BEARS that BOND FUND action is no short term phenomenom?
PLEASE, be careful, find an advisor who will swing with the times and not afraid to take you OUT of harms way when that time comes.
SPX dividend yield is currently down to 1.91% !!!!!!!!! Historical SECULAR BEAR MARKET bottoms are born from single digit PE ratios and 6% yields......we weren't even close last 2 bears...and breaking to NEW 10 year lows surpassing 2002 lows suggests.....somewhere folks down the road..... we will need to revisit those lows and either say here we come again or later dude....never again in our lifetimes.....
i DONT like look of a V bottom....w/o a V economy. This is my last post friends of 2009. I WILL return JAN 1 or 2, please feel free to look back at my postings and hopefully you will be back with me as I do my best in 2010 and beyond to tell it like it is.
Duratek
One thng for sure, it's been one helluva 2009, but one which saw the avg investor withdraw from equities and pile maybe historically into bonds. The institutional investor is on avg back into stocks.
The bulk of gov stimulus lies ahead, companies have shred vast amounts of overhead and costs and stripped down naked to grow profits with slowing or lower revenues. Financials have been able to raise money and repay a big chunk of money used for bailouts, gee what is not to like?
When I've made decent returns in the past, it has always been from STOCK PICKING, it's probably what I do best. 2 bubbles and 2 pops turned me conservative in that regard, pile on personal business stress, and I pulled in my horns. I accept that, and did what I felt best at the time, which was to protect any asset I had from losses.
When adding in the stock market has gone nowhere in 10 years, I am way ahead of the game, but now what?
Won't businesses need to begin adding workers, for us to really begin the next leg of optimism? With 65% gains from bottom, is it good idea to predict full speed ahead? with only one small retrace of 10%.
We may switch to stock pickers market. We could experience a market like 2004-2005 which mostly went sideways. Consolidating here around 1120 the 50% FIV from highs to lows MAY just have been gathering steam and basing foundation to break out above......hmmm and Precther said short with leverage???
The MARKET TEALEAVES show weakening selling, and growing investor appetite for stocks. Even as other divergences exist, so far have not led to declines.
Many think GOLD may begin to shine again, this AM back above 1100.
FED action threw market into reverse and has defeated 2 Bear markets in a row. Money suppoly to do this has more than doubled in short period of time, banks hold RECORD excess reserves and should this money get lent out in any volume would lead to catostrophic inflation.
This has nothappened as yet and I do not beleive the FED can control it, certainly not w/o raising rates aggresively, which would kill economy.
We are again floating on a sea of debt, and deficits w/o major revival of economy......so for my point of view we have achieved for now a resurrection of bullish stock action but when it ends IMHO no new era has been induced, but more than likely an even worse MONSTER has been forming and when it goes.....will bring down the FED and many of these policies which lead to boom bust cycles.
But game is still on until selling pressure begins to build enough to derail current environment where stocks have risen mostly from withdrawl of selling.
DO you believe the netry by little guy still is in wings? because there is a shitpile of cah there...OR has SO MUCH DAMAGE been down last 2 BEARS that BOND FUND action is no short term phenomenom?
PLEASE, be careful, find an advisor who will swing with the times and not afraid to take you OUT of harms way when that time comes.
SPX dividend yield is currently down to 1.91% !!!!!!!!! Historical SECULAR BEAR MARKET bottoms are born from single digit PE ratios and 6% yields......we weren't even close last 2 bears...and breaking to NEW 10 year lows surpassing 2002 lows suggests.....somewhere folks down the road..... we will need to revisit those lows and either say here we come again or later dude....never again in our lifetimes.....
i DONT like look of a V bottom....w/o a V economy. This is my last post friends of 2009. I WILL return JAN 1 or 2, please feel free to look back at my postings and hopefully you will be back with me as I do my best in 2010 and beyond to tell it like it is.
Duratek
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
BAGHOLDERS
NEW YORK – Citigroup Inc. said Wednesday it has repaid the $20 billion in bailout money it received from the government.
Citi said it funded the previously announced repayment with a recent stock offering that raised $20.5 billion. The offering included $17 billion in common shares and $3.5 billion in what are called tangible equity units, which can be converted into common stock at a later date.
GEE, that won't cause any DILUTION to current shareholders? SO did CITIGROUP repay the $20B because it is in stronger financial condition? Long live the bull mkt
D
Citi said it funded the previously announced repayment with a recent stock offering that raised $20.5 billion. The offering included $17 billion in common shares and $3.5 billion in what are called tangible equity units, which can be converted into common stock at a later date.
GEE, that won't cause any DILUTION to current shareholders? SO did CITIGROUP repay the $20B because it is in stronger financial condition? Long live the bull mkt
D
SANTA CLAWS RALLY
If asking is this action a "breakout" I would answer it's highly suspect considering the waning volume.Since we have not achieved ANY fundamental improvement in our economy, formed NO basis for job creation, and are creating even more maladjustments with feckless FED policy.....NO I can't say today when this folly ends I just know the ending will look a lot like 2002 or 2009 trip to the lows,
D
MORE BROWN SHOOTS
NEW YORK (AP) -- An unexpected drop in sales of new homes last month stalled a three-day rally on the stock market, leaving indexes narrowly mixed.
Stocks started out modestly higher early Wednesday after a report showing growth in consumer spending last month, but went into retreat at midmorning after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes plunged 11.3 percent in November to their lowest level since March.
The slump in new home sales was disappointing for two reasons -- economists had forecast an increase, and the news came a day after stocks snapped higher on a separate report showing a better-than-expected gain in sales of existing homes last month.
GEE what a surprise, and the 3.5 GDP that was barely 2.2 if that....so what is the March rally built upon???
"castels made of and slip into the sea.....eventually" jimi hendrix
Duratek
Stocks started out modestly higher early Wednesday after a report showing growth in consumer spending last month, but went into retreat at midmorning after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes plunged 11.3 percent in November to their lowest level since March.
The slump in new home sales was disappointing for two reasons -- economists had forecast an increase, and the news came a day after stocks snapped higher on a separate report showing a better-than-expected gain in sales of existing homes last month.
GEE what a surprise, and the 3.5 GDP that was barely 2.2 if that....so what is the March rally built upon???
"castels made of and slip into the sea.....eventually" jimi hendrix
Duratek
YOU CAN BANK ON IT
A SMALL BANK WILL CLOSE NEAR YOU
Some measures of buying momentum peaked 7 months ago! But the market trudges higher. WHat we are witnessing is a VERY narrow focussed market, selective buying that is rising in the absence of selling interest. (note VIX is near lows for the rally)
We have had ONE 10% corrective decline from the March lows. Financials are stuck in trading range that topped in AUG. Measures of volume have been decreasing for months with the rally.
From Lowry's I think I can share one observation, a measure they use for buying power has not made a new high since APril/May. SO as you can see for yourself, prices can rise with JUST the absence of sellers.
When you think of what made prices fall to their lows in MArch, one could make good argument we have seen a potential generational low. WHAT MORE FEAR than a total financial collapse could cause prices to visit that area again?
IMHO, the potential is not great for that to happen, I don't know the limits of gov and fed intervention. What I do know is EVERY time this has happened it ends badly and the back drop of debt overhang and excess consumption, ability of consumer to borrow and gear up consumption have been mortally damaged.
Small Banks do large portion of lending to small business, they no longer are competitive to the BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS, do not have access to the free money as they do, do not make most of their money trading the stock market.
Home Owners drained their home equity like Dracula a victim, left is an empty husk of a corpse.
AT the same time, the taxpayer has gotten more conservative, trying to heal doesn't mean taking risks in the stock market. IN RETURN for this new hunker down behavior, he is rewarded for savings with a NEAR ZERO RETURN ON HIS MONEY. MY BIG ARGUEMENT is the FED need to RAISE interest rates, this is rediculous, there is NO proof this plan is working, and just imagine what SAVERS might do with DECENT RETURNS on SAVINGS?
We can find growth, but the fuel has been spent, bills piling SKY HIGH and IMHO the NEW GROWTH, the NEW REALITY doesn't justify stock prices at these levels.
Duratek
Some measures of buying momentum peaked 7 months ago! But the market trudges higher. WHat we are witnessing is a VERY narrow focussed market, selective buying that is rising in the absence of selling interest. (note VIX is near lows for the rally)
We have had ONE 10% corrective decline from the March lows. Financials are stuck in trading range that topped in AUG. Measures of volume have been decreasing for months with the rally.
From Lowry's I think I can share one observation, a measure they use for buying power has not made a new high since APril/May. SO as you can see for yourself, prices can rise with JUST the absence of sellers.
When you think of what made prices fall to their lows in MArch, one could make good argument we have seen a potential generational low. WHAT MORE FEAR than a total financial collapse could cause prices to visit that area again?
IMHO, the potential is not great for that to happen, I don't know the limits of gov and fed intervention. What I do know is EVERY time this has happened it ends badly and the back drop of debt overhang and excess consumption, ability of consumer to borrow and gear up consumption have been mortally damaged.
Small Banks do large portion of lending to small business, they no longer are competitive to the BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS, do not have access to the free money as they do, do not make most of their money trading the stock market.
Home Owners drained their home equity like Dracula a victim, left is an empty husk of a corpse.
AT the same time, the taxpayer has gotten more conservative, trying to heal doesn't mean taking risks in the stock market. IN RETURN for this new hunker down behavior, he is rewarded for savings with a NEAR ZERO RETURN ON HIS MONEY. MY BIG ARGUEMENT is the FED need to RAISE interest rates, this is rediculous, there is NO proof this plan is working, and just imagine what SAVERS might do with DECENT RETURNS on SAVINGS?
We can find growth, but the fuel has been spent, bills piling SKY HIGH and IMHO the NEW GROWTH, the NEW REALITY doesn't justify stock prices at these levels.
Duratek
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
SOSDD
Pre holiday action, limp volume, 1120 still stands. There isn't much to add to what I have already have been saying.
Action in the stock market does not reflect main street.
D
Action in the stock market does not reflect main street.
D
OSAMA REVISITED FOR THOSE INTERESTED
The Battle for Tora Bora
How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.
Peter Bergen
http://www.tnr.com/print/article/the-battle-tora-bora
How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.
Peter Bergen
http://www.tnr.com/print/article/the-battle-tora-bora
AM DATA "THE BIG LIE CONTINUES"
Briefing.com AM DATA LINK GDP REVISED DOWNARD firts from 3.5% (which helped spur shouts of "RECOVERY IS HERE LONG LIVE US STOCKS" and 2nd revision was down to 2.8% and again "NOT SO BAD SHIT HAPPENS, UP UP AND AWAY" and todays final 3rd revision was
AGAIN GDP REVISED now DOWNWARD TO A MERE 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wtf???!!!!!
This repulses me friends, why can't the BLS get an honest asessment of the REAL DATA? I mean we have gone from a ROBUST? 3.5% GDP down to 2.2%???? and the stock market is trying to convince us we have a V-SHAPED RECOVERY?????????? IN WHAT, US STOCK GAMING?
Business investment has shown little or NO recovery in these reports, shoved down to the bottom of importance, if we see a V SHAPED recovery, shouldn't we see business investment EXPLODE? NO it has IMPLODED! and bodes ILL for REAL JOBS.....which would lead to a REAL RECOVERY
Stocks gets bid higher and higher with no support, a withdrawl of selling, 80% of GS profits from their trading gaming desks, so program trading becoming THE MARKET, no meaningful pullback since March, largest rise from Recessionary lows in history of market, $TRILLIONS of $$$$$$"SSSSSS of gov stimulus, CDS market support, housing and mortgage support, TARP BANK bailouts, loan mods, cash for klunkers, bridges and roads to nowhere.......and all we got is 2.2% GDP (even is that real???)
I suspect the old saying, at some point as it takes more NEW MONEY to creat even ONE $ of GDP, we have reached the point where we are "PUSHING ON A STRING"
We have more than doubled the adj money base, of all known monies in less than a year, it is said we have record EXCESS BANK RESERVES, the world has thrown TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS at this mess, entire countries get bailouts (ICELAND) or default.......and lastly if CHINA is just a fricken humming along while their biggest customer the US whithers away................why isn't JAPAN humming too who should figure to get trickle down from Chinese growth? WHY would Japan need more stimulus? how has stimulus worked for Japan the last 20 years?
I'm going to ask again, tax receipts help fund governments State, local, and DC.........these are DOWN the shitter....yet WASH expands their budgets beyond what already cannot be funded by incoming so that creates even more PRESSURE TO FUND DEBT AND DEFICITS.
WHAT happens to long term interest rates? in the face of historic demand for debt....WHat IS KEEPING RATES SO LOW?
My goodness, is this ever going to end badly..... I REALLY question ability of the market to take out SPX 1120......if so....come the New Year, with BS turn from perfume to an outhouse?
Duratek
AGAIN GDP REVISED now DOWNWARD TO A MERE 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wtf???!!!!!
This repulses me friends, why can't the BLS get an honest asessment of the REAL DATA? I mean we have gone from a ROBUST? 3.5% GDP down to 2.2%???? and the stock market is trying to convince us we have a V-SHAPED RECOVERY?????????? IN WHAT, US STOCK GAMING?
Business investment has shown little or NO recovery in these reports, shoved down to the bottom of importance, if we see a V SHAPED recovery, shouldn't we see business investment EXPLODE? NO it has IMPLODED! and bodes ILL for REAL JOBS.....which would lead to a REAL RECOVERY
Stocks gets bid higher and higher with no support, a withdrawl of selling, 80% of GS profits from their trading gaming desks, so program trading becoming THE MARKET, no meaningful pullback since March, largest rise from Recessionary lows in history of market, $TRILLIONS of $$$$$$"SSSSSS of gov stimulus, CDS market support, housing and mortgage support, TARP BANK bailouts, loan mods, cash for klunkers, bridges and roads to nowhere.......and all we got is 2.2% GDP (even is that real???)
I suspect the old saying, at some point as it takes more NEW MONEY to creat even ONE $ of GDP, we have reached the point where we are "PUSHING ON A STRING"
We have more than doubled the adj money base, of all known monies in less than a year, it is said we have record EXCESS BANK RESERVES, the world has thrown TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS at this mess, entire countries get bailouts (ICELAND) or default.......and lastly if CHINA is just a fricken humming along while their biggest customer the US whithers away................why isn't JAPAN humming too who should figure to get trickle down from Chinese growth? WHY would Japan need more stimulus? how has stimulus worked for Japan the last 20 years?
I'm going to ask again, tax receipts help fund governments State, local, and DC.........these are DOWN the shitter....yet WASH expands their budgets beyond what already cannot be funded by incoming so that creates even more PRESSURE TO FUND DEBT AND DEFICITS.
WHAT happens to long term interest rates? in the face of historic demand for debt....WHat IS KEEPING RATES SO LOW?
My goodness, is this ever going to end badly..... I REALLY question ability of the market to take out SPX 1120......if so....come the New Year, with BS turn from perfume to an outhouse?
Duratek
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS ON MORTGAGE MODS
LOAN MODS AND DEFAULT RATES FROM CNN
Also: BDI still in downtrend. 10yr rate at 3.68% seems to have broken out.
Home sales report this AM is expected to show improvement, but it is on life support from the government, how much longer can this last?
Key level on SPX to be challenged this AM 1120, a close above could signal another leg up in process.....even with US $ rally GAME ON from the GAMING CROWD still in vogue,
D
Also: BDI still in downtrend. 10yr rate at 3.68% seems to have broken out.
Home sales report this AM is expected to show improvement, but it is on life support from the government, how much longer can this last?
Key level on SPX to be challenged this AM 1120, a close above could signal another leg up in process.....even with US $ rally GAME ON from the GAMING CROWD still in vogue,
D
Monday, December 21, 2009
TIDBIT
The Architecture Billings Index declined in November to 42.8 from 46.1 showing decreasing demand for design services. Like the ISM index a score under 50 shows contraction in demand, the index was last above 50 in January of 2008.
SO uncertainty in the construction industry is good for who?
D
SO uncertainty in the construction industry is good for who?
D
"DEATH, TAXES, AND MR MARKET CALLING THE BLUFF"
THIS ARTICLE FROM WEBSITE THE AUTOMATIC EARTH IS A MUST READ. Now it doesn't have to turn out this way, but I have hard time refuting much of what is put forth.
At some point, if indeed the HERD has been bamboozled again, led to the edge, and asked to jump off, with threats of inflation and the deafening lies shouted about recovery and how the FED saved the day.....there is A TRUTH out there, and if you believe the creation of a flood of paper currrency and 0% interest rates can save the day......you may have been fooled yet again.
It is TRUE that is takes an ever increasing amount of NEW DEBT to deliver $1 of GDP, and IMHO we have reached the point of no return, nomore games can forstall the Day Of Reckoning!
The PULL, the SUCKING, the BLACK HOLE of DEFLATION is growing stronger and there is no force in nature strong enough to avoid its grasp and attraction.
The 70 (drawn out by FED manipulations) year cycle of Kondratief, the WINTER CYCLE is HERE, $500 TRIILION or MORE of DERIVITIVE products exists in a most complicated speculative world, many many times greater than the worlds GDP, and this chicken is coming home to roost.
I pray you are in a situation to SURVIVE the coming DEPRESSION, have we not reached a point where no matter the size of external influence, what will be must what will be?
In a world governed by financials, the banking system is IMHO is broke, why do you think, and this is irrefutable, there are RECORD EXCESS RESERVES in the banking system, and banks are not lending?
Duratek
At some point, if indeed the HERD has been bamboozled again, led to the edge, and asked to jump off, with threats of inflation and the deafening lies shouted about recovery and how the FED saved the day.....there is A TRUTH out there, and if you believe the creation of a flood of paper currrency and 0% interest rates can save the day......you may have been fooled yet again.
It is TRUE that is takes an ever increasing amount of NEW DEBT to deliver $1 of GDP, and IMHO we have reached the point of no return, nomore games can forstall the Day Of Reckoning!
The PULL, the SUCKING, the BLACK HOLE of DEFLATION is growing stronger and there is no force in nature strong enough to avoid its grasp and attraction.
The 70 (drawn out by FED manipulations) year cycle of Kondratief, the WINTER CYCLE is HERE, $500 TRIILION or MORE of DERIVITIVE products exists in a most complicated speculative world, many many times greater than the worlds GDP, and this chicken is coming home to roost.
I pray you are in a situation to SURVIVE the coming DEPRESSION, have we not reached a point where no matter the size of external influence, what will be must what will be?
In a world governed by financials, the banking system is IMHO is broke, why do you think, and this is irrefutable, there are RECORD EXCESS RESERVES in the banking system, and banks are not lending?
Duratek
Sunday, December 20, 2009
THE BIG LIE
40% of all people looking for work have been out of a job for more than 6 months, some kind of record.
The BIG LIE is that we have recovery, that jobs are being created, that banks are not insolvent, that the gov and FED plans are working. They are only working for WALL STREET FAT CATS.
A job gives someone purpose and dignity, that has been stripped away from millions. Suffering from a decade of overspending, not saving and rampant speculation and debt creation the time to repair is now, but plans in motion want to deny the past and slow the healing of tomorrow.
Millions have been wasted, or not accounted for, and time ticks away as the core of the American economy rots from the inside.
It was OK for all those manufacturing jobs to be shipped away to China, all those $'s fleeing the US to ASIA but in return we help CHina pollute their country, enslave millions to $'s a day factory work making the shoes and furniture and soccer balls we buy here at such bargain prices....and the price was a buying binge of the decade at cost of lost jobs today.
The problem is friends, when a town like Willimgton Ohio which was featured on 60 minutes loses 10,000 jobs as a factory shuts down, it can't rebuild them and peoples lives are destroyed.
But we do get a health care plan? being sold as a saviour for millions, will not add to deficits and has done what 7 Presidents couldn;t do, reform healthcare...and I guess that is why HEALTH CARE STOCKS are at 52 WEEK HIGHS> and this occurring when the sellout Democrats too public option off table and we will be told this is a victory.
Like the victory over credit card companies? who were given 9 months before any changes and that was time enough to DROP many, and raise rates on the rest......making any changes to legislation meaningless.
Most items at Kohl's to pay were 50% off and we got another 30% off when using the Kohl's card.
later I went to a Sears store and found it near empty of customers at 2 PM the Sunday before Xmas.
2010-2011 will bring us more pain IMHO as a HUGE wave of ALT A and interest rate adjustable mortgages hit the fan....maybe not what SUB PRIME was but bad enough, we are not counting the Commercial Real Estate situation.
My OWN business at risk, I cannot get a small business loan, you can only get a loan when your business is doing well, not when you're not, what retail is kicking ass here? I am not alone.
The home buyer has disappeared, and everyone else is holding back unsure of future afraid to expand.
I have seen little or NO improvement in current situation and have NO visibility.....I wish I was a Wall Street insider getting record bonuses for TRADING STOCKS and not lending.
I wish I could hide losses by not marking my values to current market values.
And all of a sudden the Asian dynamos do not depend on the US market? sure they don't...why the country is exploding with growth because?????
They have been busy using our $'s we threw away, at expense of jobs here and buying the worlds natural resources and building their military, all that must be good?
What is the avg Americans opinion of our politicians? tar and feather them?
We lost our way somehow, the founding fathers wisdom long gone, and we surge our troops into Afghanistan an unwinnable situation as it has been for centuries, showing you we have learned absolutely nothing.
We have learned how to blow bubbles, put irresponsable people in positions of power, turn our heads when trouble is staring elected officials in the face and allow the fleecing of America by the big banks who have transferred their mistakes and losses onto the American people's balance sheet.
We are headed for $100 Trillion of unfunded liabilities and 10% of GDP deficits...and growing.....how sad it all is....and you wonder why we are in a SECULAR BEAR MKT?
D
The BIG LIE is that we have recovery, that jobs are being created, that banks are not insolvent, that the gov and FED plans are working. They are only working for WALL STREET FAT CATS.
A job gives someone purpose and dignity, that has been stripped away from millions. Suffering from a decade of overspending, not saving and rampant speculation and debt creation the time to repair is now, but plans in motion want to deny the past and slow the healing of tomorrow.
Millions have been wasted, or not accounted for, and time ticks away as the core of the American economy rots from the inside.
It was OK for all those manufacturing jobs to be shipped away to China, all those $'s fleeing the US to ASIA but in return we help CHina pollute their country, enslave millions to $'s a day factory work making the shoes and furniture and soccer balls we buy here at such bargain prices....and the price was a buying binge of the decade at cost of lost jobs today.
The problem is friends, when a town like Willimgton Ohio which was featured on 60 minutes loses 10,000 jobs as a factory shuts down, it can't rebuild them and peoples lives are destroyed.
But we do get a health care plan? being sold as a saviour for millions, will not add to deficits and has done what 7 Presidents couldn;t do, reform healthcare...and I guess that is why HEALTH CARE STOCKS are at 52 WEEK HIGHS> and this occurring when the sellout Democrats too public option off table and we will be told this is a victory.
Like the victory over credit card companies? who were given 9 months before any changes and that was time enough to DROP many, and raise rates on the rest......making any changes to legislation meaningless.
Most items at Kohl's to pay were 50% off and we got another 30% off when using the Kohl's card.
later I went to a Sears store and found it near empty of customers at 2 PM the Sunday before Xmas.
2010-2011 will bring us more pain IMHO as a HUGE wave of ALT A and interest rate adjustable mortgages hit the fan....maybe not what SUB PRIME was but bad enough, we are not counting the Commercial Real Estate situation.
My OWN business at risk, I cannot get a small business loan, you can only get a loan when your business is doing well, not when you're not, what retail is kicking ass here? I am not alone.
The home buyer has disappeared, and everyone else is holding back unsure of future afraid to expand.
I have seen little or NO improvement in current situation and have NO visibility.....I wish I was a Wall Street insider getting record bonuses for TRADING STOCKS and not lending.
I wish I could hide losses by not marking my values to current market values.
And all of a sudden the Asian dynamos do not depend on the US market? sure they don't...why the country is exploding with growth because?????
They have been busy using our $'s we threw away, at expense of jobs here and buying the worlds natural resources and building their military, all that must be good?
What is the avg Americans opinion of our politicians? tar and feather them?
We lost our way somehow, the founding fathers wisdom long gone, and we surge our troops into Afghanistan an unwinnable situation as it has been for centuries, showing you we have learned absolutely nothing.
We have learned how to blow bubbles, put irresponsable people in positions of power, turn our heads when trouble is staring elected officials in the face and allow the fleecing of America by the big banks who have transferred their mistakes and losses onto the American people's balance sheet.
We are headed for $100 Trillion of unfunded liabilities and 10% of GDP deficits...and growing.....how sad it all is....and you wonder why we are in a SECULAR BEAR MKT?
D
TOP IS IN?
*click to enlarge as always. Note EAST CAOST BLIZZARD came on bussiest shopping day of year, another BLOW to already reeling Retailers.
Note red arrows and explanation. This is not a prediction, this is a chart of what is.....is.
There is enough here when adding REPEATED attempts of market to cross these bounderies in the last month or so have been defeated, there isn't enough buying enthusiasm, at same time the withdrawl of selling pressure has kept market levitated.
I wonder the players won't LOCK IN record 2009 profits? Maybe waiting for 2010 JAN so having another 12 months to pay taxes?
Argument for BIG "correction" as market rose unabated with one minor 10% correction. AAII polls show a HORDE of bulls and a dirth of bears.
EWT is looking for a WAVE 2 (up) to complete where a WAVE 3 of 5 would begin, wave 3's can be especially ugly. The rally from MArch lows IMHO counts best as an ABC 3 wave correction to primary BEAR MARKET.
I can say my primary sub thinks we are in primary UP move and there is argument growing for correction of more than few days, but that would not defeat uptrend move......I wont rule that out!
But I'll go on record saying I don't think NOW is the time to bebuying or remain complacent in the face of a manipulated market rally supported by FED and GOV intervention.
Happy holidays and NY to everyone, I will be GONE from 25th of DEC til JAN 1st on vacation.
Duratek
Saturday, December 19, 2009
SONG REMAINS THE SAME Weekend post
Until we make a break one way or another it's biz as usual and CHOP for traders.
I tell it like it is but the rest of this post I am going to list
THE THINGS I AM MOST THANKFUL FOR (and you may want to do the same as we have enterred a dark period in history)
My basic good health
My friendships
My wife and son
My parents in heaven may they rest in peace
Our fighting troops for risking their lives for us and their families
For having a meaningful life
My love of music
My good nature (???)
My wonderful home
What I wish for most, for our troops to come home in peace and all those suffering from this horrible economic crisis see hope
Duratek
Friday, December 18, 2009
RALLY BEGAN HERE
Are we basing for 4 plus months to move higher? or is recent moves distribution?
Next move here from range will give clue
Next move here from range will give clueThursday, December 17, 2009
"Austrians Win, Keynesians-Friedmanians Lose"
Worthwhile read by Gary North
When did printing money out of thin air actually solve anything?
Who doesn't understand how we got here? by OVER CONSUMPTION, LACK OF SAVINGS, and DEBT GORGED?
What is needed is a healing period, so what does the FED do? Interest rates to ZERO % DOUBLES and then some money supply as adj M base (just sitting around) and bails out the banking system that caused the fiasco while dumping its debts onto the American people?
SO all that for the good of the people? yeah WALL STREET people, not you and me.
ANd all this time debt upon debt upon fiscal malfeasance continues on unabated.
A bad plan is worse than no plan. SO induce people to spend when over spending got us here? PROP UP what is supposed to be a free market with OUR MONEY with rewards going to bankers?
There is NO easy way out. ONE YEAR of adjustments doesn't cleanse the system, not after what they did to it.
WHAT GOOD is the FED if in charge of avoiding such a mess as we have been thru in 2000 and again 2007-2008, if they didnt see the rampant real estate speculation and WILD financial instruments that helped cause this crisis...WTF good are they?
They are keepr of the reserve currency.....it has lost 40% of its value since 2001.
KEEP up the good work, we'll all be broke and working for the chinese. They have OUR $'s buying all that cheap shit, they are using it to BUILD their military, buy the worlds natural resources........remember they are communists....they also have done it on the BACKS of their Peasants! RUINING their environment....all for the all mighty green back?
PS* Todays down volume was 89% ! and onheavy volume continuing trend of up days LIGHT and down days HEAVY.
D
When did printing money out of thin air actually solve anything?
Who doesn't understand how we got here? by OVER CONSUMPTION, LACK OF SAVINGS, and DEBT GORGED?
What is needed is a healing period, so what does the FED do? Interest rates to ZERO % DOUBLES and then some money supply as adj M base (just sitting around) and bails out the banking system that caused the fiasco while dumping its debts onto the American people?
SO all that for the good of the people? yeah WALL STREET people, not you and me.
ANd all this time debt upon debt upon fiscal malfeasance continues on unabated.
A bad plan is worse than no plan. SO induce people to spend when over spending got us here? PROP UP what is supposed to be a free market with OUR MONEY with rewards going to bankers?
There is NO easy way out. ONE YEAR of adjustments doesn't cleanse the system, not after what they did to it.
WHAT GOOD is the FED if in charge of avoiding such a mess as we have been thru in 2000 and again 2007-2008, if they didnt see the rampant real estate speculation and WILD financial instruments that helped cause this crisis...WTF good are they?
They are keepr of the reserve currency.....it has lost 40% of its value since 2001.
KEEP up the good work, we'll all be broke and working for the chinese. They have OUR $'s buying all that cheap shit, they are using it to BUILD their military, buy the worlds natural resources........remember they are communists....they also have done it on the BACKS of their Peasants! RUINING their environment....all for the all mighty green back?
PS* Todays down volume was 89% ! and onheavy volume continuing trend of up days LIGHT and down days HEAVY.
D
SHEDDING SOME SKIN
...."The dollar jumped to a three-month high against the euro, a sign of risk-aversion in the market. Investor confidence was further sapped as a forecast from FedEx Corp. fell short of expectations and Citigroup Inc. sold stock at a steep discount as part of a plan to repay government loans.
More poor news came in on the economy as the government reported an unexpected rise in unemployment claims last week. The number of new jobless claims rose to 480,000 last week, up 7,000 from the previous week."
LOOK.....we're dumb but not stupid....is FEDX really shipping less boxes? WHY isn't the job picture improving especially around XAMS time?
The banks floated STOCK (spelled DILUTION by existing shareholders) to repay TWERP so they could take BIG bonueses. SO they could fleece unsuspecting investors to grab the BAG and HOLD IT just as the rock hits the bag and rips the bottom OUT!
HUGE HUNKS of our economy aren't functioning well, and others are on STIMULUS life support....what if the V shaped stock rally was just that,,,,a sham ploy to pump up stck prices and banks shares to get healthy.....but anyone in the street is dying from swine flu...
SOMEONE with some common sense please come and help us...HEY I KNOW WHY DON'T WE HAVE ANOTHER JOB SUMMIT????
D
More poor news came in on the economy as the government reported an unexpected rise in unemployment claims last week. The number of new jobless claims rose to 480,000 last week, up 7,000 from the previous week."
LOOK.....we're dumb but not stupid....is FEDX really shipping less boxes? WHY isn't the job picture improving especially around XAMS time?
The banks floated STOCK (spelled DILUTION by existing shareholders) to repay TWERP so they could take BIG bonueses. SO they could fleece unsuspecting investors to grab the BAG and HOLD IT just as the rock hits the bag and rips the bottom OUT!
HUGE HUNKS of our economy aren't functioning well, and others are on STIMULUS life support....what if the V shaped stock rally was just that,,,,a sham ploy to pump up stck prices and banks shares to get healthy.....but anyone in the street is dying from swine flu...
SOMEONE with some common sense please come and help us...HEY I KNOW WHY DON'T WE HAVE ANOTHER JOB SUMMIT????
D
VELOCITY LONG TERM CHART
http://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Velocity-Of-Money-chart/M2
One of our posters left this link on a comment, you can plainly see what a RISING TREND for velocity does for economy, which in turn for stocks.
Looks like we dbl topped, and may be in new FALLING PATTERN, and it takes MUCH more JUICE to create a $1 of GDP these days.
D
One of our posters left this link on a comment, you can plainly see what a RISING TREND for velocity does for economy, which in turn for stocks.
Looks like we dbl topped, and may be in new FALLING PATTERN, and it takes MUCH more JUICE to create a $1 of GDP these days.
D
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
V SHAPED RECOVERY?
Fed meeting concluded today and blah blah blah. MAn of the year blah blah blah.
SPX still stuck in trading range, today was a NON EVENT for volatilty considering FED WED's usually have multiple gyrations.
The selling isn't there enough yet to fall prices, yet the buying isn't intense enough to break the upper ranges needed for breakout.
VIX is scraping along 20 and should it break down below that higher prices should be coming....but ithas rallied from here before leading to price declines.
SInce March over 8 months ago I think we have had ONE correction of 10%. The market can continue to rally but is vulnerable.....to ANY increase in selling.
SANTA RALLY? running out of time.
D
BUYING GOLD? AND BIG BEN'S DAY
CENTRAL BANKS ARE in a contrarian indictment? bloomberg story
FED MEETING TODAY...2:15 crow time...head fakes...screwed up day
http://www.time.com/time/ also some Q and A with the man who saved the world.
Doesn't agree with times MAN OF YEAR AWARD
FED MEETING TODAY...2:15 crow time...head fakes...screwed up day
http://www.time.com/time/ also some Q and A with the man who saved the world.
Doesn't agree with times MAN OF YEAR AWARD
WE'RE DUMB BUT NOT STUPID
How does nitwit AJC still get face time on CNBC??
Futures contracts show LARGE bullish bias with LOW VIX contracts.
Market and $ have broken connection. LOTS of implausable good news priced into market. The SPX yield is under 2%....never seen before at market lows. 3% yield typical top (as in 2000)
3% was 2003 bottom argued that wasn't bear bottom and so it wasnt with 2008-2009 lows breaking old bear lows.....2007 highs showed 3% yield then 2% range at MArch bottom....door is OPEN to test or new lows down the road.
ADJ rate mortgages peak reset 2010-2011. COmmercial loans deliquent and defaulting still rising.
COnsumers do not have large home equity to draw upon. 10-20% unemployed and underemployed and plum gave up not going to consume as before.
FED has bought huge share of GOV debt to manipulate rates down plus buyer of last resort. Rates appear to have bottomed and are on the rise.
FED controls only short end, the more the gap between short and long rates the LESS LIKELY BANKS ARE TO LOAN......add that to already dampened demand and you don't get V recovery at BEST you get hard slog to mediocrity.
One of the best tools for economic vitality is VELOCITY OF MONEY and it almost always precedes a SPX rally and recovery, economic expansion. IN 2003 it lagged a bit but late 2002 showed it leveling off at least, mid 2003-2008 it rose sharply.
NOW VELOCITY is still in SHARP DECLINE and this tells me to this point in time, the money in economy is not changing hands rapidly which would cause expansion.
As I said, the excess reserves in banking system are HUGE, monolithic.....but it has not as yet been making its way into main street to goose economy, induce hiring etc.....FED policy of paying on these excess reserves as well as 0% rates and that carry trade of borrow short buy long will remain until banks have more than a "PLEASE LEND" from Obama as incentive....they have LITTLE reason to do anything different.
ALSO, what you see as profits as they report, perhaps they know that marking paper to market value at present may signal insolvency.
A game is being played, American public is being gamed. SO ABBEY, good old disgraced interent jerk is calling for 2010 1250-1300 SPX, take it to the bank.......?
Duratek
Futures contracts show LARGE bullish bias with LOW VIX contracts.
Market and $ have broken connection. LOTS of implausable good news priced into market. The SPX yield is under 2%....never seen before at market lows. 3% yield typical top (as in 2000)
3% was 2003 bottom argued that wasn't bear bottom and so it wasnt with 2008-2009 lows breaking old bear lows.....2007 highs showed 3% yield then 2% range at MArch bottom....door is OPEN to test or new lows down the road.
ADJ rate mortgages peak reset 2010-2011. COmmercial loans deliquent and defaulting still rising.
COnsumers do not have large home equity to draw upon. 10-20% unemployed and underemployed and plum gave up not going to consume as before.
FED has bought huge share of GOV debt to manipulate rates down plus buyer of last resort. Rates appear to have bottomed and are on the rise.
FED controls only short end, the more the gap between short and long rates the LESS LIKELY BANKS ARE TO LOAN......add that to already dampened demand and you don't get V recovery at BEST you get hard slog to mediocrity.
One of the best tools for economic vitality is VELOCITY OF MONEY and it almost always precedes a SPX rally and recovery, economic expansion. IN 2003 it lagged a bit but late 2002 showed it leveling off at least, mid 2003-2008 it rose sharply.
NOW VELOCITY is still in SHARP DECLINE and this tells me to this point in time, the money in economy is not changing hands rapidly which would cause expansion.
As I said, the excess reserves in banking system are HUGE, monolithic.....but it has not as yet been making its way into main street to goose economy, induce hiring etc.....FED policy of paying on these excess reserves as well as 0% rates and that carry trade of borrow short buy long will remain until banks have more than a "PLEASE LEND" from Obama as incentive....they have LITTLE reason to do anything different.
ALSO, what you see as profits as they report, perhaps they know that marking paper to market value at present may signal insolvency.
A game is being played, American public is being gamed. SO ABBEY, good old disgraced interent jerk is calling for 2010 1250-1300 SPX, take it to the bank.......?
Duratek
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
LONG BANKS ETF
Well, this never signalled BULL, couldn't get above 200 EMA and is now falling below 50 EMA which has began to turn down....stay tuned....where is the hip hip hoorah for paying back the TWERP FUNDS?
Maybe word is out, they just find NEW SUCKERS to buy their shares and float that
(spelled DILUTION) and voila you have your answer as how the banks got healthy.....
SPX 1080-1120 my signpost
Duratek
US DOLLAR OUT OF THE BARN
But now stocks continue to rally...all of sudden where is the connection?
RANGE is 1120 SPX at top 1180 at bottom, a BREAK either way is what traders will probably PILE ON
D
MORE BROWN SHOOTS
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Even a holiday gift from Uncle Sam couldn't brighten the homebuilders' outlook in December.
The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index fell by one point to 16 this month, reflecting concern that job losses and a slow economic recovery will continue to stifle demand for new homes despite the extension of a federal tax credit for buyers.
The latest reading is the lowest since June, when it fell to 15. This was also the first monthly decline since October.
The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index fell by one point to 16 this month, reflecting concern that job losses and a slow economic recovery will continue to stifle demand for new homes despite the extension of a federal tax credit for buyers.
The latest reading is the lowest since June, when it fell to 15. This was also the first monthly decline since October.
BANKS HEALTHY
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wells Fargo & Co. said Tuesday it will sell stock for $25 per share to help repay $25 billion in government bailout money.
Are people really that stupid?
Are people really that stupid?
ECONOMIC DATA SUCKS
BRIEFING.COM LINK PPI (inflation) VERY HOT even core up .5%.
Manufacturing data CRATERED as Rick Santelli crowed "GREEN SHOOTS?"
It's all a damn MIRAGE!
When you sweep shit under the rug the dirt is still there.
FED WED BFD
D
Manufacturing data CRATERED as Rick Santelli crowed "GREEN SHOOTS?"
It's all a damn MIRAGE!
When you sweep shit under the rug the dirt is still there.
FED WED BFD
D
"FAT CAT BANKERS" TIMELINE
BANKING CRISIS caused by FED rate policy, no GOV regulation, greed, stupidity, BANKS insolvent.
FED STEPS IN WITH BAILOUT
Banks don't need to lend, making money from trading desks and excess reserves
GAO drops requirement for MARK TO MARKET ACCOUNTING (banks "appear better off")
Tighter credit standards, less willing borrowers....real change has occurred.
Fed keeps rates at 0% to backstop markets indefinitely
Savers get near 0% return on money markets, must seek RISK for return
Banks wont lend also because they are seeing Commercial defaults crisis on horizon and new wave of public debt crisis in form of ALT A loans.
60% of carry rates above current, yet refinancing is down 57% from last year levels
PHAT CATS?
Yeah we made them fat!
Market soars, on LOW VOLUMES......we have recovery? sure of the fat cats....
Duratek
FED STEPS IN WITH BAILOUT
Banks don't need to lend, making money from trading desks and excess reserves
GAO drops requirement for MARK TO MARKET ACCOUNTING (banks "appear better off")
Tighter credit standards, less willing borrowers....real change has occurred.
Fed keeps rates at 0% to backstop markets indefinitely
Savers get near 0% return on money markets, must seek RISK for return
Banks wont lend also because they are seeing Commercial defaults crisis on horizon and new wave of public debt crisis in form of ALT A loans.
60% of carry rates above current, yet refinancing is down 57% from last year levels
PHAT CATS?
Yeah we made them fat!
Market soars, on LOW VOLUMES......we have recovery? sure of the fat cats....
Duratek
Monday, December 14, 2009
WAR PIGS
Appropriate..big deal Trans and DOW confirm...SPX 1120 awaits the test of the almighty bull with blood on the street
D
BANKS REPAY TARP
Funny thing, I am curious as to HOW the banks made so much money in a VERY short time, especially if they are not lending?
If so many people are defaulting on loans and credit card payments.......if M and A activity and other banks business is not what it was......how so such an amazing recovery at the banks with the economy in tatters?
It's all funny money make believe BS IMHO, paper on books at FACE VALUE have NOT been marked down, so don't have to be shown as losses or maybe even OFF BALANCE SHEET. Loans on defaulted mortgages not even worth 50% of orig amount held at FACE VALUE? or NO Loss realized?
I showed where over then next 2 years another HUGE wave of loans will be coming around similar to SUB PRIME SLIME, ALT A and many of the higher prime variety and $3 Trillion commercial real estate is needing to be refinanced, so defaults will rise there dramatically.
Myguess is almost ALL of the money SENT to the banks to HELP the economy and American public were instead used SOLEY to benefit banks in a PONZI LIKE TRADING SCHEME......80% of GS profits came from their trading desks.
This is great for the banks, sucks for us. OF course like the air mask in a plane.....first fit it around your face....then get to your children.
The US $ is at $76.49 nd has broken out to the upside, so it looks for now as if no big deal that thisbreaks the relationship up til now where $ weakness equaled market strength and $ strength equaled market declicnes......
D
If so many people are defaulting on loans and credit card payments.......if M and A activity and other banks business is not what it was......how so such an amazing recovery at the banks with the economy in tatters?
It's all funny money make believe BS IMHO, paper on books at FACE VALUE have NOT been marked down, so don't have to be shown as losses or maybe even OFF BALANCE SHEET. Loans on defaulted mortgages not even worth 50% of orig amount held at FACE VALUE? or NO Loss realized?
I showed where over then next 2 years another HUGE wave of loans will be coming around similar to SUB PRIME SLIME, ALT A and many of the higher prime variety and $3 Trillion commercial real estate is needing to be refinanced, so defaults will rise there dramatically.
Myguess is almost ALL of the money SENT to the banks to HELP the economy and American public were instead used SOLEY to benefit banks in a PONZI LIKE TRADING SCHEME......80% of GS profits came from their trading desks.
This is great for the banks, sucks for us. OF course like the air mask in a plane.....first fit it around your face....then get to your children.
The US $ is at $76.49 nd has broken out to the upside, so it looks for now as if no big deal that thisbreaks the relationship up til now where $ weakness equaled market strength and $ strength equaled market declicnes......
D
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
WHERE DO I PUT MY MONEY?
ANNUITY LINK HERE I know most insurance companies have some sort of GUARANTEED returns anywhere from 6-8% and some pay a one time premium payment for opening the acct of as much s 10% of what you put in.
You can use Mutual Funds to gain when mkt is strong, come out when it is not or switch it around....you can do no more than the GUARANTEED RATE of return
ONE HITCH, it is an annuity, there are rules, I have one called a GRIP with Lincoln and must leave in for 3 years NO penalty. If leave in for 10 years, you can ANNUITISE what the value is and you get the rate 6% or whatever the deal is. Other catch is you can then no longer take out the money as LUMP SUM, it gets paid out over time monthly.
If your investments inside of it do better than guarantee, great , you usually can pull it out then. But the guaranetee may be great for those who want security....ask your advisor about it.
D
You can use Mutual Funds to gain when mkt is strong, come out when it is not or switch it around....you can do no more than the GUARANTEED RATE of return
ONE HITCH, it is an annuity, there are rules, I have one called a GRIP with Lincoln and must leave in for 3 years NO penalty. If leave in for 10 years, you can ANNUITISE what the value is and you get the rate 6% or whatever the deal is. Other catch is you can then no longer take out the money as LUMP SUM, it gets paid out over time monthly.
If your investments inside of it do better than guarantee, great , you usually can pull it out then. But the guaranetee may be great for those who want security....ask your advisor about it.
D
US $ DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS
STOCK action had been TIED to US $ direction, will it now end that relationship of $ down stock UP and vice versa now that $ has appeared to broken out?
LOST DECADE
The market leadership has een from big cap stocks, historically this can skew some readings that make market appear weak, but one thing present in this rally from March has been a drop in buyers demand, BUT and even fatser drop in those wishing to sell. SO we can imply that the gains in the market is more a result of a withdrawl of selling than a CONVICTION of buyers to buy.
I have read for instance that back in 1998 some of these trends persisted for nearly 2 years before a TOP was put in place. SO when we search for THE TOP and see divergences, they are mearly WARNINGS signs, not immediate indicators.
Just recently the US $ has broken out of its downtrend channel, and we have shown since March the fall in $ value resulted in the March rally and this relationship has continued....until now?
I DO find that interesting that this big US $ move did not find Friday a HEAP of covering from those short $, long GOLD and EQUITIES, yet we have seen gold retrench.
We also have the indexes STUCK in a month long trading zone I will put up chart next post, until we get resolution here we will not know ST direction of action.
MY guess, is with $ breaking out, LOW buying volume and interest, there is not enough OOOOOMPHHHHHH to push the indexes OUT and ABOVE upper range.....and will sellers step up and take the SPX down and out of lower bounds near 1080?
FRI Consumer Sentiment was shown to improve, bullish articles on spending and retail (believe it or not), housing etc have surfaced, and the GOOD NEWS did not provide the fuel to break out over 1120 (50% FIB of SPX)
Should it do that , the stage would be set for another leg up......I can be bearish on fundamentals, but that doesn't preclude a move higher. Just as I got several bullish warnings near the March bottom, I should await bearish signals based on technical analysis to confirm the Bear's re-emergence.
I do feel action taken so far has NOT fully revived the economy nor has it fixed the underlying problems, it has masked them, so EVENTUALLY the correction and change must come to pass.
LOST DECADE link to FT story
VOLKER GIVES WARNING link here
D
I have read for instance that back in 1998 some of these trends persisted for nearly 2 years before a TOP was put in place. SO when we search for THE TOP and see divergences, they are mearly WARNINGS signs, not immediate indicators.
Just recently the US $ has broken out of its downtrend channel, and we have shown since March the fall in $ value resulted in the March rally and this relationship has continued....until now?
I DO find that interesting that this big US $ move did not find Friday a HEAP of covering from those short $, long GOLD and EQUITIES, yet we have seen gold retrench.
We also have the indexes STUCK in a month long trading zone I will put up chart next post, until we get resolution here we will not know ST direction of action.
MY guess, is with $ breaking out, LOW buying volume and interest, there is not enough OOOOOMPHHHHHH to push the indexes OUT and ABOVE upper range.....and will sellers step up and take the SPX down and out of lower bounds near 1080?
FRI Consumer Sentiment was shown to improve, bullish articles on spending and retail (believe it or not), housing etc have surfaced, and the GOOD NEWS did not provide the fuel to break out over 1120 (50% FIB of SPX)
Should it do that , the stage would be set for another leg up......I can be bearish on fundamentals, but that doesn't preclude a move higher. Just as I got several bullish warnings near the March bottom, I should await bearish signals based on technical analysis to confirm the Bear's re-emergence.
I do feel action taken so far has NOT fully revived the economy nor has it fixed the underlying problems, it has masked them, so EVENTUALLY the correction and change must come to pass.
LOST DECADE link to FT story
VOLKER GIVES WARNING link here
D
OBAMA'S BIG SELLOUT
FULL ROLLING STONE STORY MUST READ
"Now here's where it gets really interesting. It's three weeks after the election. You have a lame-duck president in George W. Bush — still nominally in charge, but in reality already halfway to the golf-and-O'Doul's portion of his career and more than happy to vacate the scene. Left to deal with the still-reeling economy are lame-duck Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former head of Goldman Sachs, and New York Fed chief Timothy Geithner, who served under Bob Rubin in the Clinton White House. Running Obama's economic team are a still-employed Citigroup executive and the son of another Citigroup executive, who himself joined Obama's transition team that same month."
Friday, December 11, 2009
WE'RE DUMB, BUT WE'RE NOT STUPID
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/11/AR2009121102754_pf.html NEW financial regulations and thank goodness ANOTHER GOV AGENCY ! F ME!!!!!!!
REFORM????
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/41226
US $ splurts higher to $76.58 stocks have taken NO notice yet..... this is a $ breakout!!!
D
REFORM????
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/41226
US $ splurts higher to $76.58 stocks have taken NO notice yet..... this is a $ breakout!!!
D
3 PEAKS AND DOMED HOUSE?
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/tp.html Some see repeat of this set up in recent action
IT IS WHAT IT IS
OBAMA'S BIG SELL OUT from ROLLING STONE
I am not going to tell you what you want to hear...I am going to tell it like itis, go to MSM if you want lies and deception.
D
I am not going to tell you what you want to hear...I am going to tell it like itis, go to MSM if you want lies and deception.
D
GUESS? BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Recently the BDI has turned down amidst all the CNBC chatter of an improving COnsumer committed to spend spend spend, now if this doesn't make sense to you then turn off TV. ROC is diving.
WHEN COMPARING how retail sales are doing, one MUST be reminded and can be seen from this chart, that the % of rise is in direct relationship to previous and that was an historic COLLAPSE in consumer spending. This "bounce" doesn't even come close to reacing the worst it ever got in 2001 and again is coming off VERY WEAK 2008 comparables....so maybe again less worse is good for stocks?
RETAIL SALES BRIEFING.COM link. click on retail sales to get the details.
DO NOT LOOK DOWN at the growth in ADJ M base see here and all this "growth" with a bank machine that isn't lending, this FREE MONEY is probably what is propping up the stock markets. Because we already know the little guy isn't coming back to stocks and who is making up for the 8 million lost souls NOT contributing FUEL into their 401k'S? You get the picture.
If everything is so wonderful why isn't the SPX running past 1120? THE US must float near $150B in notes each month, all we can do is pay interest on debt and will NEVER be able to pay off principal....are we not near insolvency except for the ability to print money AKA with status as Reserve World currency......if you invested in US $'s would you like to see no restraint in their printing and GOV spending?
We have LONG passed that rock N hard place.
D
Thursday, December 10, 2009
WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMERICA?
60% PLUS rally and the "little guy" hasn't bought in. I read where something like $300B has flowed into bond funds andmaybe $30B into equity only funds. The flow into bond funds is a record and it is coming with rates at near historic lows.....bad recipe. That is ONE CROWDED TRADE...and is going to end in tears.
WTF is wrong you may ask? WHat's wrong is WE THE PEOPLE have been SOLD OUT, and if we don't get up off our asses and demand REAL CHANGE we will be lost.
What indeed is wrong this time? CAN YOU REFLATE a burst debt bubble? with more debt?
Aren't we getting, even if at record pace more toxin the same recipe as every other downturn from gov and FED? STIM and cut rates...this time to near ZERO %.
Now the avg AMERICAN has their ass in a sling, their teet in a cleaver, and instead of doing what is right and good....they BAIL OUT THE BANKSTERS, they must be laughing their asses off or will be when they deposit their RECORD BONUSES.....you getting a bonus?
Money was asked for by PAulson for a specific purpose BUY TOXIC ASSETS, then banks wouldn't need such capital requirements and could lend, thus pumping economy.
But what happened? PAULSON switch the game plan after his NAPKIN proposal was voted on and passed as TARP TOXIC ASSET RELIEF PLAN...it fing spells it out what it was for.....the bubble head idiots who vote in Congress had no balls and were "scared" not to vote....
OK, now he gave the money to the BANKSTERS and did not make them use it for any purpose whatsoever...so like GS made 80% of their profits from TRADING....TRADING not LENDING.....but for heavens sakes we needed to get our banks HEALTHY, so damn the torpedoes straight ahead...no strings.
SO the STOCK market , gold etc got pumped, shorts got dumped, but the avg Joe wanted none of it....all he wants is to pay down debt...survive......since maybe 2000 many were burned and didnt come back, now in 2007 they got it again, were screwed and for sure not coming back anytime soon.
SO how's that banks acct doing? 0% interest, and money markets? 0% interest ..oh that's great, BURNED more than once, the avg joe just wants a decent return thats safe....he gets bitch slapped instead.
Int rates should be MUCH higher, given demand alone for debt from the Federal Gov......if we have MORE savers and they got a DECENT RATE on their money hey they might even SPEND IT!!!!!!!! BUT no YOU have to go into the BANKSTER LAIR to make money the STOCK MARKET.......but we may have lost a generation to the scams, the schemes.....the games...PONZINOMICS>
Banks wont lend, credit is contracting in a K Winter scenario, BANKS dont have to tell you what the shitty paper is worth because of an accounting rule change.....HOW CAN ANYONE TRUST THE GAME IF ITS RIGGED?
We're dumb but we're not stupiD!!!!!!!
WHAT comes first chicken or the egg? JOBS MUST COME FIRST....do you create jobs by taxing businesses more? increasing regulation and tarrifs?
We have lost a decade of jobs a decade folks think about it, and for those out of work, what are the chances of finding a job? Now think of the RECORD $BILLIONS going to be paid out to the very same ILK who helped cause the disaster...
And the FED with their RECKLESS FECKLESS policies wants more power? WHERE have they been? WE are dumb but we're not stupid.
Housing is not coming back anytime soon, so I think we should just print more money and give more subsidies......and screw the small biz owner trying to survive....let's CUT OFF His access to credit....to we can save the banks?
WHY SAVE the banks if the patient dies? This stupid health care bill, yeah let's DROP the public option but lower medicare help from 65 to 55......how's that unfunded liability doing? WELL...we got $100 TRILLION of them....guess we'll just print that too....
When it's all said and done, you can wipe your ass with the value of our currency.....we inflated CHINA to world Super Power with our policies and lust for chotskies.....do we become or have we already an empty society ruled by the banking system and ruled by morons.....or do we demand more.....do we stand up for what is good for all.....when will we stop pandering to special interest groups...right now my heart is out to any unemployed....you are invisable to your gov.
D
WTF is wrong you may ask? WHat's wrong is WE THE PEOPLE have been SOLD OUT, and if we don't get up off our asses and demand REAL CHANGE we will be lost.
What indeed is wrong this time? CAN YOU REFLATE a burst debt bubble? with more debt?
Aren't we getting, even if at record pace more toxin the same recipe as every other downturn from gov and FED? STIM and cut rates...this time to near ZERO %.
Now the avg AMERICAN has their ass in a sling, their teet in a cleaver, and instead of doing what is right and good....they BAIL OUT THE BANKSTERS, they must be laughing their asses off or will be when they deposit their RECORD BONUSES.....you getting a bonus?
Money was asked for by PAulson for a specific purpose BUY TOXIC ASSETS, then banks wouldn't need such capital requirements and could lend, thus pumping economy.
But what happened? PAULSON switch the game plan after his NAPKIN proposal was voted on and passed as TARP TOXIC ASSET RELIEF PLAN...it fing spells it out what it was for.....the bubble head idiots who vote in Congress had no balls and were "scared" not to vote....
OK, now he gave the money to the BANKSTERS and did not make them use it for any purpose whatsoever...so like GS made 80% of their profits from TRADING....TRADING not LENDING.....but for heavens sakes we needed to get our banks HEALTHY, so damn the torpedoes straight ahead...no strings.
SO the STOCK market , gold etc got pumped, shorts got dumped, but the avg Joe wanted none of it....all he wants is to pay down debt...survive......since maybe 2000 many were burned and didnt come back, now in 2007 they got it again, were screwed and for sure not coming back anytime soon.
SO how's that banks acct doing? 0% interest, and money markets? 0% interest ..oh that's great, BURNED more than once, the avg joe just wants a decent return thats safe....he gets bitch slapped instead.
Int rates should be MUCH higher, given demand alone for debt from the Federal Gov......if we have MORE savers and they got a DECENT RATE on their money hey they might even SPEND IT!!!!!!!! BUT no YOU have to go into the BANKSTER LAIR to make money the STOCK MARKET.......but we may have lost a generation to the scams, the schemes.....the games...PONZINOMICS>
Banks wont lend, credit is contracting in a K Winter scenario, BANKS dont have to tell you what the shitty paper is worth because of an accounting rule change.....HOW CAN ANYONE TRUST THE GAME IF ITS RIGGED?
We're dumb but we're not stupiD!!!!!!!
WHAT comes first chicken or the egg? JOBS MUST COME FIRST....do you create jobs by taxing businesses more? increasing regulation and tarrifs?
We have lost a decade of jobs a decade folks think about it, and for those out of work, what are the chances of finding a job? Now think of the RECORD $BILLIONS going to be paid out to the very same ILK who helped cause the disaster...
And the FED with their RECKLESS FECKLESS policies wants more power? WHERE have they been? WE are dumb but we're not stupid.
Housing is not coming back anytime soon, so I think we should just print more money and give more subsidies......and screw the small biz owner trying to survive....let's CUT OFF His access to credit....to we can save the banks?
WHY SAVE the banks if the patient dies? This stupid health care bill, yeah let's DROP the public option but lower medicare help from 65 to 55......how's that unfunded liability doing? WELL...we got $100 TRILLION of them....guess we'll just print that too....
When it's all said and done, you can wipe your ass with the value of our currency.....we inflated CHINA to world Super Power with our policies and lust for chotskies.....do we become or have we already an empty society ruled by the banking system and ruled by morons.....or do we demand more.....do we stand up for what is good for all.....when will we stop pandering to special interest groups...right now my heart is out to any unemployed....you are invisable to your gov.
D
HIGHLANDER 9
POLISHED TURD LINK sucker born every minute....
SO let me get this straight. Our economy has been batterred down by an historic credit debt bubble exploding. And the way OUT is by trying to induce a new gorging of credit and debt?
Our esteemed Pres says...."we will SPEND our way out of this...." OMG!!!!!!!!
There is no hope, if truth is not told, if real reform is not had, all we got so far is we've been had.
D
SO let me get this straight. Our economy has been batterred down by an historic credit debt bubble exploding. And the way OUT is by trying to induce a new gorging of credit and debt?
Our esteemed Pres says...."we will SPEND our way out of this...." OMG!!!!!!!!
There is no hope, if truth is not told, if real reform is not had, all we got so far is we've been had.
D
UNEXPECTED
Briefing.com says unemployment claims rose "unexpectedly" link here to CNN.COM to about 475,000
Futures rose on thenews, must be GLEE that FED can continue unabated their gimmicks.
D
Futures rose on thenews, must be GLEE that FED can continue unabated their gimmicks.
D
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
SITTING IDLY BY
In the greatest transfer of wealth and debt from the BANKS and BIG WALL STREET FIRMS TO the American taxpayer, there seems to be a disquieting calm and silence from the masses.
Is it they d0n't even know what has been perpetrated upon them? and upon their children, I can say OUR.
There is a stench in the wind, like a spoiled land fill across the street from your home that fills the air we breathe, and we don't even put a mask on? or ask where that STENCH is emminating from?
Our "LEADERS" are so weak and disengenuous to allow the greatest theft of wealth in the history of the world to take place on their watch and be blind to it, a party to it?
Is there NO price to pay for more than doubling the monetary base in less than ONE YEAR? doubling and then some of ALL THE FIAT KNOWN to exist before that?
And such a degredatoin of US $ comes with long term interest rates near all time lows? Are you telling me that the need to borrow has never been greater, and the ball is in our court with the lowest rates ever? or are the rates lower because we are buying our own debt?
Will there be NO price to pay for such monetary folly? afraid not. The BEAR is on watch, waiting, has NOT GONE AWAY and will seek revenge.
D
Is it they d0n't even know what has been perpetrated upon them? and upon their children, I can say OUR.
There is a stench in the wind, like a spoiled land fill across the street from your home that fills the air we breathe, and we don't even put a mask on? or ask where that STENCH is emminating from?
Our "LEADERS" are so weak and disengenuous to allow the greatest theft of wealth in the history of the world to take place on their watch and be blind to it, a party to it?
Is there NO price to pay for more than doubling the monetary base in less than ONE YEAR? doubling and then some of ALL THE FIAT KNOWN to exist before that?
And such a degredatoin of US $ comes with long term interest rates near all time lows? Are you telling me that the need to borrow has never been greater, and the ball is in our court with the lowest rates ever? or are the rates lower because we are buying our own debt?
Will there be NO price to pay for such monetary folly? afraid not. The BEAR is on watch, waiting, has NOT GONE AWAY and will seek revenge.
D
RANGE BOUND......BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Retailers aren't sucking hind teet here? Banks aren't lending, consumers aren't borrowing they're saving?......sure that sounds like V shape to me!
"Castles made of sand slip into the sea eventually"
D
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
NEAR BREAKDOWN OR BREAKOUT?
Art Cashen had talked about $ INDEX 76.25 as breakout land, currently 76.23.....all those carry traders.....LONG GOLD SHORT $$...are we close to an accident?
TONS scrambling into 3 month treasuries more like stampede...what do they see?
I FEEL AN ACCIDENT IS LURKING.....$ has made big move....equities mostly shurking it off...real economy is broken...housing in SHAMBLES....
D
TONS scrambling into 3 month treasuries more like stampede...what do they see?
I FEEL AN ACCIDENT IS LURKING.....$ has made big move....equities mostly shurking it off...real economy is broken...housing in SHAMBLES....
D
STOCK MARKET DISAGREES
Survey: Few CEOs plan to hire in next 6 months
The CEOs of America's largest companies do not expect employment to significantly improve in the next six months. The CEOs expect the overall U.S. economy to grow by 1.9 percent in 2010. That would mark a slowdown from the 2.8 percent pace in the third quarter of 2009. In more positive news, the number of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending nearly doubled, to 40 from 21 percent. The number expecting sales to increase grew to 68 from 51 percent....
The CEOs of America's largest companies do not expect employment to significantly improve in the next six months. The CEOs expect the overall U.S. economy to grow by 1.9 percent in 2010. That would mark a slowdown from the 2.8 percent pace in the third quarter of 2009. In more positive news, the number of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending nearly doubled, to 40 from 21 percent. The number expecting sales to increase grew to 68 from 51 percent....
IN THE POCKET OF WALL STREET
The money supply has swelled from $800B to over $2.2 Trillion in a matter of months....most of which SITS as excess Bank Reserves doing avg American absolutely NO GOOD.
SO BANK lending and Consumer CREDIT have been FALLING, CONTRACTING....while the stock market may be trying to tell you one thing, the RAW DATA is telling us a different story...both can't be right.
DO YOU TRUST GOV STATS? GDP is a LIE? BLS EMPLOYMENT DATA A LIE?
FED wants MORE power to help ensure another financial crisis such as this NEVER unfolds again??????????????? where were they during the last 2 BUBBLES that BURST????
The GOV hs been IMPOTENT during this crisis pandering to BIG BANKS, now even BIGGER....screw you, save the fraudsters, Banksters who caused the mess in first place? that's what they have done and wait til you see the BONUSES!!!!
In a cruel twist of irony, GOV and FED had decided the way back to economic health was to transfer wealth from YOU to the Banksters.....hope you like the results....and the FED who wants MORE POWER??? will not shed a shred of light as to WHO got what.....NO ACCOUNTING FOR ALMOST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!
A TRUCKLOAD of VIAGRA won't lift the engine of this economy...it lays here flacid as a rubber noodle.
In a BEAR MKT TIGER WOODS is a cheating whore....in a BULL MKT he walks on water as a phenom....certainly now I can't wait to see his next commercial hyping some product....what a hypocrite....but a rich one....is he a brain surgeon? no he hits a little ball...and obviously much more.
The MIDDLE CLASS already riddled, scarred, punch drunk....will be hit again with HIGHER TAXES, get ready, bend over.
Imagine TRYING to see your doctor when 30 million new patients arrive and you know it wont cost any more....well we will actually SAVE MONEY!!! haaa yeah that's why Canadians come here for health care.....and are on WAITING LISTS to even get a doctor assigned!
HEALTH CARE is going to HAMMER DOWN on already reeling SMALL BIZ, who create most jobs in country.....when the people as MAJORITY say no change or no public option, no cap n trade etc etc and GOV doesn't listen what happened to power to the people?
Bottom line, SMall BIZ has little or NO access to capital, where are jobs coming from ?? OH 2010 consensus, look for that to pump up job report....
And here we go into Afghanistan, add another $30-50B a yr we have to BORROW, with NO VICTORY remotely possible...WTF are we doing?
AND, our GOV borrowings are the greatest is history, and the rates now the LOWEST....something has to give!!!! OUR policies in past 10 years or so have seen the working class demolished, manufacturing jobs high paying ones dissapear and we have pumped up COMMUNIST CHINA to a world SUPER POWER who is trying to dominate the world by buying everything in site...and has its claws and influence almost everywhere...hoarding raw materials...and building its military.......where is the common sense, where is the justice.....where are our leaders? IN THE POCKET OF WALL STREET
*(SPX in trading zone, evidence of a breakdown increasing)
D
SO BANK lending and Consumer CREDIT have been FALLING, CONTRACTING....while the stock market may be trying to tell you one thing, the RAW DATA is telling us a different story...both can't be right.
DO YOU TRUST GOV STATS? GDP is a LIE? BLS EMPLOYMENT DATA A LIE?
FED wants MORE power to help ensure another financial crisis such as this NEVER unfolds again??????????????? where were they during the last 2 BUBBLES that BURST????
The GOV hs been IMPOTENT during this crisis pandering to BIG BANKS, now even BIGGER....screw you, save the fraudsters, Banksters who caused the mess in first place? that's what they have done and wait til you see the BONUSES!!!!
In a cruel twist of irony, GOV and FED had decided the way back to economic health was to transfer wealth from YOU to the Banksters.....hope you like the results....and the FED who wants MORE POWER??? will not shed a shred of light as to WHO got what.....NO ACCOUNTING FOR ALMOST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!
A TRUCKLOAD of VIAGRA won't lift the engine of this economy...it lays here flacid as a rubber noodle.
In a BEAR MKT TIGER WOODS is a cheating whore....in a BULL MKT he walks on water as a phenom....certainly now I can't wait to see his next commercial hyping some product....what a hypocrite....but a rich one....is he a brain surgeon? no he hits a little ball...and obviously much more.
The MIDDLE CLASS already riddled, scarred, punch drunk....will be hit again with HIGHER TAXES, get ready, bend over.
Imagine TRYING to see your doctor when 30 million new patients arrive and you know it wont cost any more....well we will actually SAVE MONEY!!! haaa yeah that's why Canadians come here for health care.....and are on WAITING LISTS to even get a doctor assigned!
HEALTH CARE is going to HAMMER DOWN on already reeling SMALL BIZ, who create most jobs in country.....when the people as MAJORITY say no change or no public option, no cap n trade etc etc and GOV doesn't listen what happened to power to the people?
Bottom line, SMall BIZ has little or NO access to capital, where are jobs coming from ?? OH 2010 consensus, look for that to pump up job report....
And here we go into Afghanistan, add another $30-50B a yr we have to BORROW, with NO VICTORY remotely possible...WTF are we doing?
AND, our GOV borrowings are the greatest is history, and the rates now the LOWEST....something has to give!!!! OUR policies in past 10 years or so have seen the working class demolished, manufacturing jobs high paying ones dissapear and we have pumped up COMMUNIST CHINA to a world SUPER POWER who is trying to dominate the world by buying everything in site...and has its claws and influence almost everywhere...hoarding raw materials...and building its military.......where is the common sense, where is the justice.....where are our leaders? IN THE POCKET OF WALL STREET
*(SPX in trading zone, evidence of a breakdown increasing)
D
Monday, December 07, 2009
Saturday, December 05, 2009
WHAT WE SHOULD FEAR
To my Fellow Americans,
“I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within” – General Douglas MacArthur.
good one SSK
WAKE UP AMERICA
“I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within” – General Douglas MacArthur.
good one SSK
WAKE UP AMERICA
LOSING THEIR GRIP
Unemployed needing emergency funds saored to 3,859,553 underscoring "STRONG" FRI jobs data.
Retail sales were were weaker than last yr period, which was one of worst on record. IS the Consumer back? MAJORITY of retailers missed their sales estimates.
It is not clear yet if the market is consolidating to surge higher or ready for a serious decline. We are still stuck in sideways trading pattern. NO 90% up days in response to recent 90% down volume days. NO NEW DOW or SPX or RUT new high with "GREAT NEWS" but low and behold a TRansport new high for move.
I look at some TA that suggests we are correcting from one of the MOST oversold monthly reading I can find (March lows). SO I can't ignore potential for this rally to carry on, for months, for years, to new highs.
That said we had little DUBAI accident and I am wondering how many MORE DUBAI'S lay in wait. The market is running on PURE speculation and EMOTION, where the FUNDAMENTAL'S do not equal this historic rally in % terms.
SO there is also the chance of HUGE accident lurking in the dark. I think we are in uncharted territory but I have suggested to bears looking to position, going short is always risky and timing difficult and to be PATIENT.
I could be long on action alone, but the FOUNDATION for a LASTING recovery is nowhere to be found.
$ near a breakout, BOND yields near a breakout. ALL things had been going UP, STOCKS ignore HUGE upside move in $...for now, next week will prove interesting.
The tide can TURN in most unexpected ways as "GOOD NEWS" might be BAD for the bond market has been rallying for 27 years and good news could be BAD NEWS for bonds. FED may be IGNORANT but they might lose their grip on long yields.
D
Retail sales were were weaker than last yr period, which was one of worst on record. IS the Consumer back? MAJORITY of retailers missed their sales estimates.
It is not clear yet if the market is consolidating to surge higher or ready for a serious decline. We are still stuck in sideways trading pattern. NO 90% up days in response to recent 90% down volume days. NO NEW DOW or SPX or RUT new high with "GREAT NEWS" but low and behold a TRansport new high for move.
I look at some TA that suggests we are correcting from one of the MOST oversold monthly reading I can find (March lows). SO I can't ignore potential for this rally to carry on, for months, for years, to new highs.
That said we had little DUBAI accident and I am wondering how many MORE DUBAI'S lay in wait. The market is running on PURE speculation and EMOTION, where the FUNDAMENTAL'S do not equal this historic rally in % terms.
SO there is also the chance of HUGE accident lurking in the dark. I think we are in uncharted territory but I have suggested to bears looking to position, going short is always risky and timing difficult and to be PATIENT.
I could be long on action alone, but the FOUNDATION for a LASTING recovery is nowhere to be found.
$ near a breakout, BOND yields near a breakout. ALL things had been going UP, STOCKS ignore HUGE upside move in $...for now, next week will prove interesting.
The tide can TURN in most unexpected ways as "GOOD NEWS" might be BAD for the bond market has been rallying for 27 years and good news could be BAD NEWS for bonds. FED may be IGNORANT but they might lose their grip on long yields.
D
Friday, December 04, 2009
RUNNING ON EMPTY
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/1204.html
"Bull running on emotion and speculation"
HUGE MOVE OF US $
Market clinging green, so now all of a sudden no correlation with stocks?(though big eraly move eraced) haaa GOLD OFF HUGE $50There is MASSIVE carry trade on long GOLD short US $....is it about to BLOW UP
D
BS IN EQUALS BS OUT
WATCH SPX 1117 ish yesterday high on a close (can't we even capture that with such GOOD NEWS?) we had reversal dayyesterday, down days come with increasing volume, up days with pathetic volume...all a game.
SPX 1114 was top of previous trading range.
Watch a $ move above 76.00. Gold correction could finally be here. BULK OF "GREAT" JOBS added? TEMP (XMAS) and SERVICES....what then LOSUY ISM services number from Thursday showing CONTRACTION????????????
BS IN BS OUT
D
SPX 1114 was top of previous trading range.
Watch a $ move above 76.00. Gold correction could finally be here. BULK OF "GREAT" JOBS added? TEMP (XMAS) and SERVICES....what then LOSUY ISM services number from Thursday showing CONTRACTION????????????
BS IN BS OUT
D
THROW THE CONFETTI
Job picture just getting to where the worst it was during 2001? Note improving picture in 2001 was not bottom of that bear market.
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm data here
What are we to make of a DROP in jobless rate? Upward revisions? better than expected data?
What were the "SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS"? DID xmas PART TIME workers really get hired?
GOLD dropped sharply and the $ rose, but now the $ rise will not hurt market right?
If things are SO good and improving why doesn't the FED let OFF the gas pedal? IF things are SO good and the stimulus is wide open won't this lead to rampant inflation?
Folks, for me, something does not add up. Contracting credit markets, bank loans falling...subdued consumer spending.....the coast is clear?
When will the market begin to SENSE CHANGE IN FED POLICY? how reckless is it of FED to keep 0% interest rates now it is SO OBVIOUS coast is clear?
D
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