*(comemnts from one of my friends KJ, who is very smart and usualaly dead on his market and economic thoughts)
PS
This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....
Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???
I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.
Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.
If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.
Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.
**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments
Duratek
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
CREDIT MARKET DEBT
Total credit market debt had reached 260% of GDP in 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression. US total credit market debt has doubled over the past five years, alone."BEST MARKET TIMERS REMAIN BULLISH SEPT 2007 !!!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 (yes folks...so what do we need "experts TIMERS FOR?)
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
THERE GOES THE GOOD SHIP LOLLYPOP!
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm IMAGINE GDP WORSE than expected? revised to down 6.2% !!!
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
Thursday, February 26, 2009
OBAMANATION OBAMANOMICS
full story http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/27/us/politics/27web-budget.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
15 Minute SPX VIEW
@ click to enlarge752 looming as dbl bottom or last stand ME don'ts like the action, hey jbr you hangin in there?
Today in a NUTSHELL (wall street journal)
Markets continued to swing unpredictably on Thursday, ending lower as health insurers and drug makers sank sharply after the Obama administration unveiled sweeping plans for healthcare reform.
Traders also jockeyed to balance their books heading into the last trading day of the month, which has seen major averages hit fresh bear-market lows.
D
California Unempoyment 9.4%
http://odeo.com/episodes/24121458-Growing-Unemployment-is-Putting-the-Squeeze-on-CA-s-Healthcare-System
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS SHARED
Wait wait P….OBAMA plan is highlighting ALT energy…wait a tck! Even the OBVIOUS comes with a VIPER inside the bag
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
WILL CUT DEFICIT IN HALF FIRST TERM????
THIS IS GOOD START??? haa
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Santelli RANT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiCOb49vVVM UTUBE RANT
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thursday, February 19, 2009
SAVE YOUR ASS Investing 101 DURATEK STYLE
*CLICK TO ENLARGE
I AM GOING TO KEEP THIS SIMPLE AND IN CAPS....DEATH CROSS 50/200 AND BOTH DESCENDING THIS IS SCREAMING A BEAR MARKET IS HERE. YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELF THE 2X THIS OCCURED.
IN EARLY 2003 YOU CAN ALSO SEE WHEN THE MA'S BEGAN TO CLIMB AND WE HAD A CROSS UP OF 50 THRU 200 and there only the stubborn will stay bearish.
You don;t hardly need to know anything more, and it doesn't matter a squat what anybody says, you can TURN OFF THE FLIPPIN' TV SET.
I use addt'l TA to fine tune my signals and get them earlier for move down and up, but this signal is one not to be ignored IMHO NEVER EVER NEVER
I may not get the bottom, nor the top, but I sure as hell amnot going to have to grab my ankles as I sit there unaware and dumbfounded by a rise or decline so significant you cannot afford to fly BLIND
YOU cannot afford to be at MERCY of Wall street shills and the CRamer's etc of the world, what helpful did even ONE SOD at CNBC say or do to leep you out of harm's way in this most destructive Bear MKT?
WTF good are they then?
OTHER SHAMONS where CHIMPS do well in BULL spout special systems and signals blah blah are losing their subscribers asses now!!!!
WHAT about a freakin stop loss on any of their calls? EVERYBODY is wrong now again....you just MUST BE ABLE TO CUT YOUR LOSSES.
NOW.....what was gained back from 2003-2007 is GONE AND THEN SOME!!!
Most will end up SELLING near the lows.....it's just the way it goes time and time again.
VIX not screaming panic here either....
TRANSPORTS BELOW LAST NOV LOWS.........misery loves company.
GOV RESPONSE is pure BS......pablum for the masses....will do little good....its pathetic!
D
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
CFO 2009 OUTLOOK
http://corp.bankofamerica.com/publicpdf/landing/cfooutlook/Final_PDF.pdf
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
SPX RENKO
I use this in conjuction with other usual technical data. In general in when WHITE out when RED, can also see this in daily and monthly form, I like weekly for this bear bull call.
I added trend line so when broken I could enter on 1st white bar or exit 1st red if desired.
In BULL like 90's, could wait for 2nd red renko to exit would have kept you in. NOBODY gets in at bottom or out at top.....object is to ride the tide when less risky.
ANY NUMBER of signals would have been seen as early as 2007 where you could have avoided most of this bear market.
I am less inclined to GUESS at bottom on this nasty Depression-like Bear.....prices are obviously DOWN there....could be WHILE before profits come back.
I do not see bear bottom markers as yet.
D
CLOSEUP OF RECENT S & P 500 BREAKDOWN
*Click to enlarge.
Now, do we go and see if 740 can hold? TUES was ANOTHER 90% DOWN volume day, we can conclude the DESIRE to sell has not been vanguished, but has desire to buy?
NONE of the GOV bailout prgorams address the core of the problems, we've infected the economic universe...NO easy way out!
During last "mild" Recession Consumers NEVER stopped their credit binge, so what does FED DO? LOWER rates to 1% and hold them firing up the now defacto defuncto REAL ESTATE BUBBLE.....so now we must heal and pain is multiplied.
PLEASE stop seeing the gov and FED as rescue and for what they are THE PROBLEM!
D
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
MUST READ
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123456974951086203.html from Baron's interview with Robert Albertson.....no QUICK FIX and YES we ain't going about it right!
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
"RED ALERT FX DISLOCATION IN PROCESS"
http://market-ticker.org/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
ZOMBIE BANKS
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8346.html ZOMBIES IN BANK SYSTEM – ATTRACTING LAST PUBLIC FUNDS
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Saturday, February 14, 2009
"EARNINGS ARE CRASHING"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html Carl Swenlin from great Decision Pt site.
OUCH!!!
Duratek
OUCH!!!
Duratek
FALSE CLAIMS AND THE CLUELESS
As of 8:37 a.m. EST • Obama: Stimulus bill 'major milestone' Those (in charge) who think a spending bill will get us out of the mess we're in are showing they do not understand the problem. WILD claims of creating 3.5 Million jobs are made without any burdon of explaining where that number came from.
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
Friday, February 13, 2009
LIST OF FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/09/15/business/20080916-treemap-graphic.html
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
Thursday, February 12, 2009
"THE COMING ECONOMIC DEPRESSION" ? AND WHY
*(Nouriel Roubini says to avert worst case scenario, GOV must do EVERYTHING 100% right...)
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
VOLUME ALERT
Todays volume was ROBUST and it came with a nasty 90% down volume day making the odds of further weakness more than likely. Maybe look for some kind of snap back rally but I dont think it will have any teeth....more and more it looks like THE lows are begging to be tested
D
D
ROUBINI SAW FINANCIAL CRISIS COMING
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1027496846&play=1
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
JUST A SPEED BUMP
By Tim Graham (Bio Archive)January 14, 2009 - 18:07 ET
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
Only ABC mentioned Geithner in their introductions, and featured no report, just an interview with George Stephanopoulos, who said it was a mere "speed bump" and "fairly common." CBS and NBC spent little more than a minute on Geithner, and NBC’s screen featured the Obama team’s claim in quotes. Under Geithner’s picture were the words "Honest Mistakes
THE RESPONSABLE LEAD THE IRRESPONABLES
Irresponsable lending policies by the banks, and an easy money policy by the FED, no SEC safeguarding with an historic expansion of credit and debt, much of to whom was not viable for the loans and a leveraged economy built on a house of cards has gone BUST, and as crazy as it sounds, it must be allowed to deleverage and unwind and values are trying to decline to a true market value which is sustainable.
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
Sunday, February 08, 2009
MARKET GETTING A WEDGIE?
*As always click to enlarge http://www.baresearch.com/education/technical_analysis/chart_patterns/continuation/rising_wedge.php source of explanation
D
FORK IN THE ROAD OR STICK A FORK IN IT
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy Competing stimulus plans or game of musical chairs?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
Friday, February 06, 2009
CATTLE PROD STIM BEAR TRAP
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm notice how last weeks got REVISED WITH ADDT'L 50K lost jobs! what good is todays figure showing 3 decade high lost jobs?
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Thursday, February 05, 2009
ANIMAL SPIRITS
If tech shows "animal spirits" CSCO rather dour news, Chambers can pump it up with the best, but when obvious he comes clean. STIM is NO STIM, DEM's not giving an inch, REPUB's not getting much say cept lip service...a failed bill that doesn't stim for an economy on last gasp needing REAL STIM...not a good cocktail
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
SCUM OF THE EARTH
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100181150 Madoff's brother?
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
DILUTION PARADE
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SanDisk Corp. slid in premarket trading Tuesday after the maker of flash memory cards posted a larger-than-expected fourth-quarter loss, said it expects 2009 to be challenging and that it may sell stock to raise cash.
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Monday, February 02, 2009
WHO IS BEHIND THE CURTAIN
February 1, 2009
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Sunday, February 01, 2009
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS TAKING US DOWN A DARK ROAD
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10184 Scroll down to his ending summary INFLATIONISM THE BANE OF CAPITALISM. Doug Noland is one of the smartest writers on this subject and helps you to understand what is wrong with current approach. It isn't even the hair of the dog that bit you, current thinking is so wrong it is not funny. Here we go again, it is the job of the FED and GOV to reflate asset markets rather than do the things that help build HEALTHY STABLE ECONOMIES.
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
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