WHat you see is APPL soaring, AMZN hyped even though they are projected to lose millions next qtr, but they sure do kill companies like Best Buy. On the surface you see the FED promising we still have your back.
Read The Many Facets of RORO (risk ON, risk OFF)
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10656 When risk comes OFF the market will tank like a MF'er.
people buying 2nd homes, retirement homes? They must be the people that are not the 25% upside down in mortgage and home equity. And you have to be able in some cases to sell your existing home first, not always an easy task/
The $TRILLIONS wiped out in loss of home equity, the first time in history homes lost value YR/YR....may take decades to repair. In the meantime, it is the FED's mission to prop up and goose RISK ON assets. With less than 2% for US 10 yrs, what other game is there?
The US markets are still leaking as MILLIONS are withdrawn from utual funds etc.....the players that are left all chasing MOMO, trends, same thing....all using leverage...that CAN backfire.
There are technical signs, diversions that ALL point to the formation of THE TOP......IMHO the time is NOW to prepare....raise cash and it is my belief we are very far from where the bottom will be, so very close to where the top will be
D
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Sunday, April 22, 2012
WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?
Generational LOWS in interest rates. Historical support for the markets and intervention by the FED and world Central banks. Government policies all geared for growth and support of economy including unprecedented 99 weeks of unemployment benefits and other government transfer payments. Some say housing is the most affordable in decades and stocks off great values.
Banks paying near nothing for deposits and Money Market funds, and a 10 year that can't stay above 2% yield, that we could hardily argue doesn't come close to even keeping up with inflation. But then how can a sub 2% yield for 10 years give any competition to stocks that have more than doubled off the lows of 2009?
Can I offer an argument where the focus is on RETURN OF PRINCIPAL, not RETURN ON PRINCIPAL?
Most only see the day to day price of the popular indexes, and maybe follow the VIX for indication if fear is kicking up. But it is important to look underneath the general information to see how the market as a whole is performing from a historical basis.
Here we see a different picture, one of fewer and fewer stocks participating in the march to new rally highs. We have gone from under 10% stocks which were 20% off their own highs when the market made new rally highs in April of 2010, to about 1 in 3 stocks at the recent April 2012 rally highs were already declining at least 20% or more.
IMHO the current BULL MKT is in the last, final stages, and the rallies are bringing less and less stocks with it , to the final high. AT the final high, if we haven't already seen it, a large % of stocks will already have fallen from their own highs by 20% and more.
More active management is suggested to peel off your under performers and maybe begin to build up a nice cash position, only holding your strongest, best performing stocks......if you feel it important to stay invested.
IMHO, most are positioned to try and eek out the remaining leg of the bull and will not see the top coming, will not get out, and will most likely suffer horrendous losses on paper again.
This game is not made for the majority to do well, we all can't win, for every winner a loser is needed. Most of the winners reside on Wall Street, not on Main Street. Now is NOT the time to remain complacent, to ride it out, to ignore the danger signs of an approaching top.
There is a limit to what influence the FED can have, as more and more drastic intervention and propping will bring fewer and fewer real world results. If this intervention and targeting of asset prices was the game all along, good chance the BEAR will awaken and bring values down to earth reflecting the real world economy, that never was given a chance to heal and purge the excesses of the prior period, only sweep them under the rug and BAIL OUT the players responsible for the crisis.
To this day, not ONE PERSON has been brought to justice for the financial crimes/crisis of the century.
Duratek
Banks paying near nothing for deposits and Money Market funds, and a 10 year that can't stay above 2% yield, that we could hardily argue doesn't come close to even keeping up with inflation. But then how can a sub 2% yield for 10 years give any competition to stocks that have more than doubled off the lows of 2009?
Can I offer an argument where the focus is on RETURN OF PRINCIPAL, not RETURN ON PRINCIPAL?
Most only see the day to day price of the popular indexes, and maybe follow the VIX for indication if fear is kicking up. But it is important to look underneath the general information to see how the market as a whole is performing from a historical basis.
Here we see a different picture, one of fewer and fewer stocks participating in the march to new rally highs. We have gone from under 10% stocks which were 20% off their own highs when the market made new rally highs in April of 2010, to about 1 in 3 stocks at the recent April 2012 rally highs were already declining at least 20% or more.
IMHO the current BULL MKT is in the last, final stages, and the rallies are bringing less and less stocks with it , to the final high. AT the final high, if we haven't already seen it, a large % of stocks will already have fallen from their own highs by 20% and more.
More active management is suggested to peel off your under performers and maybe begin to build up a nice cash position, only holding your strongest, best performing stocks......if you feel it important to stay invested.
IMHO, most are positioned to try and eek out the remaining leg of the bull and will not see the top coming, will not get out, and will most likely suffer horrendous losses on paper again.
This game is not made for the majority to do well, we all can't win, for every winner a loser is needed. Most of the winners reside on Wall Street, not on Main Street. Now is NOT the time to remain complacent, to ride it out, to ignore the danger signs of an approaching top.
There is a limit to what influence the FED can have, as more and more drastic intervention and propping will bring fewer and fewer real world results. If this intervention and targeting of asset prices was the game all along, good chance the BEAR will awaken and bring values down to earth reflecting the real world economy, that never was given a chance to heal and purge the excesses of the prior period, only sweep them under the rug and BAIL OUT the players responsible for the crisis.
To this day, not ONE PERSON has been brought to justice for the financial crimes/crisis of the century.
Duratek
Friday, April 20, 2012
HOUSING RECOVERY
D
Thursday, April 19, 2012
RECOVERY WOULD INCLUDE RECOVERY IN YIELDS!
D
ANOTHER LEADER STAGGERS
By Tiernan Ray
Shares of solid-state drive maker SanDisk (SNDK) are down $2.76, or almost 7%, at $37.71 in late trading after the company reported Q1 revenue and EPS below analysts’ estimates and offered a Q2 and year revenue outlook that also disappointed.
We have had 2 key reversal days in APPL stock as well......yet VIX around 18 level not showing too much fear, if you are bearish that's exactly what you want to see...DENIAL
D
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
AA: WHAT PASSES FOR GOOD NEWS
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoas-shares-soar-unexpected-1q-145108611.html
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Alcoa Inc. surged more than 8 percent Wednesday after the aluminum manufacturing giant reported an unexpected first-quarter profit as it cut costs and improved productivity.
THE SPARK: Alcoa reported Tuesday after the markets closed that it earned $94 million, or 9 cents a share, in the first quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had predicted a loss of 4 cents per share. Revenue rose to $6 billion from $5.95 billion. Analysts had predicted $5.77 billion.
THE BIG PICTURE: The results marked a turnaround from the $191 million loss that Alcoa reported for the fourth quarter but were 70 percent below net income of $308 million in the year-ago quarter.
The New York company's performance was driven by lower-than-expected costs and stronger demand from many customers, including automobile and aerospace industries. Alcoa and other aluminum makers are still coping with a global oversupply of aluminum and ongoing weak prices.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Alcoa Inc. surged more than 8 percent Wednesday after the aluminum manufacturing giant reported an unexpected first-quarter profit as it cut costs and improved productivity.
THE SPARK: Alcoa reported Tuesday after the markets closed that it earned $94 million, or 9 cents a share, in the first quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had predicted a loss of 4 cents per share. Revenue rose to $6 billion from $5.95 billion. Analysts had predicted $5.77 billion.
THE BIG PICTURE: The results marked a turnaround from the $191 million loss that Alcoa reported for the fourth quarter but were 70 percent below net income of $308 million in the year-ago quarter.
The New York company's performance was driven by lower-than-expected costs and stronger demand from many customers, including automobile and aerospace industries. Alcoa and other aluminum makers are still coping with a global oversupply of aluminum and ongoing weak prices.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
IS FEAR REIGNITING?
Today was another 90% down volume day. The real question is whether this is just a typical decline or the start of something much larger. Already this BULL MKT has crossed historical bounderies by having a 16% decline and a 19% decline, Bull markets do not normally contain 2 declines of plus 10%.
LONG TERM SENTIMENT IS BULLISH, and the shorts have been battered, so I'm not sure where the liquidty will come from. We are short term oversold, due for bounce. SPX 1340 key area, 1300 even more so.
Job creation slugged to a near halt last months report and was near half what was expected and a multi month low. Europe land is not settled in their own financial crisis....who is next. Their central bank is pouring Euros out their wazoo like the FED has here....they just call is something else, not QE.
Housing is not healed. Be thankful to have a job.
VIX hit 20 plus today. More companies will dissapoint this reporting qtr. GAS prices are killing the little guy shopper.
AAPLE touched $600 BILLION in valuation....was just $500B not that long ago...talk about a stock and tech in general ripe for collapse....they talk you into that they are special....shits a commodity like toliet paper until someone convinces you theirs is softer and won't get stuck in your crack.
Look how fast they run for treasuries driving the yield on 10 yr to below 2%!!!
My mother in law passed away a few days ago....then I will be out of town until mid week, all take care.....
D
LONG TERM SENTIMENT IS BULLISH, and the shorts have been battered, so I'm not sure where the liquidty will come from. We are short term oversold, due for bounce. SPX 1340 key area, 1300 even more so.
Job creation slugged to a near halt last months report and was near half what was expected and a multi month low. Europe land is not settled in their own financial crisis....who is next. Their central bank is pouring Euros out their wazoo like the FED has here....they just call is something else, not QE.
Housing is not healed. Be thankful to have a job.
VIX hit 20 plus today. More companies will dissapoint this reporting qtr. GAS prices are killing the little guy shopper.
AAPLE touched $600 BILLION in valuation....was just $500B not that long ago...talk about a stock and tech in general ripe for collapse....they talk you into that they are special....shits a commodity like toliet paper until someone convinces you theirs is softer and won't get stuck in your crack.
Look how fast they run for treasuries driving the yield on 10 yr to below 2%!!!
My mother in law passed away a few days ago....then I will be out of town until mid week, all take care.....
D
Friday, April 06, 2012
RON PAUL KNOWS
"Whether Paul is the next President or not, the audience and most Americans would agree with Dr. Paul's statement that "the job of the President is to take his oath seriously and obey the Constitution." That's a tall order given all the recent bills signed into law that negate the President's oath and the U.S. Constitution."
Thursday, April 05, 2012
FORECLOSURE WAVE II
GARFIELD HEIGHTS, Ohio (Reuters) - Half a decade into the deepest U.S. housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.
But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures."We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.
DO THE DARK CLOUDS APPROACHING REALLY HOLD A SILVER LINING?
"THE CLIFF NOTES" http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm A MUST read IMHO, April installment of an always good read is now available and they do a good job presenting the TRUE current environment and economic performance without seasonal adjustments or other misdirection data that skewers the truth...
We are in a deleveraging environment, after building up historic levels of debt and mortgage growth...the Consumer is still in a wind down mode. If you take out "student loan" data instead of a healthy 4% growth to loans you get yr/yr growth of 0%. What does our economic growth look like without gov't transfer payments? Gov't debt has expanded at record pace since 2009 as default gate has unfolded.
The picture going into 2013 is less certain, extended Bush tax cuts are set to expire and long with payroll tax rollbacks, and let's not forget the unemployment benefits many have gotten for up to 2 years, unprecedented. There is talk, and legislation passed that require gov't belt tightening to begin in 2013, cutting back an important stream of spending that will be made up where? Consumers???
Last go round 2003-2007 approx, we had the refi cash out gold rush, which flooded the economy with new credit and spending. In most cases, home owners flush with PAPER GAINS in home valuations, fed off of their most important asset, in many cases turning it into a liability when home valuations came crashing down....try to get cash out now.
Many are STUCK in homes worth a lot less than what they paid and owe, so more likely consumers will keep trying to pay down debt, than go on some aggressive credit expansion mode.
Think about it, we have just came from period of record credit growth, and so we fix that, heal and prepare for the next healthy expansion by piling on MORE CREDIT AND DEBT???
Savers get HOSED, earning next to NOTHING, actually NOTHING if you consider real inflation on their hard earned SAVINGS. SAVERS are REAL PEOPLE TOO, and many have flocked to stocks paying dividends with a meager 15% thank you BUSH tax rate,,,,,DUE to expire end of year. With al this talk (is it just that) of belt tightening, will a dark knight really ride into to rescue the dividend tax rate when so many other areas need addressing? with all the TALK of fiscal belt tightening?
The stock market will begin to sniff things out as much as 9 months ahead of any abrupt change....and with volatility as measured by the VIX near multi year lows, meaning not too many are worried about tomorrow......shouldn't you be?
I am rethinking the chart and my call for new highs before the end of year, though still possible, price can but doesn't have to reach the TOP of the bearish wedge I drew, a close below SPX 1300 and hold would be initial sign IMHO.
Also we keep hearing the HAIR channel and others chirp about "corporations are FLUSH with cash...a cash HORDE!!!".....what is not repeated is that corporations are also more in debt than ever before with the punch bowl of lowest rates in generation, they have borrowed like drunken sailors and in many cases used the money to BUY BACK STOCK, and not for company growth and investment.
Can you really fix an historical credit financial collapse bubble burst....by adding historic more of the same?
D
We are in a deleveraging environment, after building up historic levels of debt and mortgage growth...the Consumer is still in a wind down mode. If you take out "student loan" data instead of a healthy 4% growth to loans you get yr/yr growth of 0%. What does our economic growth look like without gov't transfer payments? Gov't debt has expanded at record pace since 2009 as default gate has unfolded.
The picture going into 2013 is less certain, extended Bush tax cuts are set to expire and long with payroll tax rollbacks, and let's not forget the unemployment benefits many have gotten for up to 2 years, unprecedented. There is talk, and legislation passed that require gov't belt tightening to begin in 2013, cutting back an important stream of spending that will be made up where? Consumers???
Last go round 2003-2007 approx, we had the refi cash out gold rush, which flooded the economy with new credit and spending. In most cases, home owners flush with PAPER GAINS in home valuations, fed off of their most important asset, in many cases turning it into a liability when home valuations came crashing down....try to get cash out now.
Many are STUCK in homes worth a lot less than what they paid and owe, so more likely consumers will keep trying to pay down debt, than go on some aggressive credit expansion mode.
Think about it, we have just came from period of record credit growth, and so we fix that, heal and prepare for the next healthy expansion by piling on MORE CREDIT AND DEBT???
Savers get HOSED, earning next to NOTHING, actually NOTHING if you consider real inflation on their hard earned SAVINGS. SAVERS are REAL PEOPLE TOO, and many have flocked to stocks paying dividends with a meager 15% thank you BUSH tax rate,,,,,DUE to expire end of year. With al this talk (is it just that) of belt tightening, will a dark knight really ride into to rescue the dividend tax rate when so many other areas need addressing? with all the TALK of fiscal belt tightening?
The stock market will begin to sniff things out as much as 9 months ahead of any abrupt change....and with volatility as measured by the VIX near multi year lows, meaning not too many are worried about tomorrow......shouldn't you be?
I am rethinking the chart and my call for new highs before the end of year, though still possible, price can but doesn't have to reach the TOP of the bearish wedge I drew, a close below SPX 1300 and hold would be initial sign IMHO.
Also we keep hearing the HAIR channel and others chirp about "corporations are FLUSH with cash...a cash HORDE!!!".....what is not repeated is that corporations are also more in debt than ever before with the punch bowl of lowest rates in generation, they have borrowed like drunken sailors and in many cases used the money to BUY BACK STOCK, and not for company growth and investment.
Can you really fix an historical credit financial collapse bubble burst....by adding historic more of the same?
D
Monday, April 02, 2012
NEW HIGHS COMING?
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2012/03/will-the-stock-market-run-to-new-highs.html
yelnick websute picked up on my chart from a while back, it's nice to have a respected established site use something I posted.
D
yelnick websute picked up on my chart from a while back, it's nice to have a respected established site use something I posted.
D
Sunday, April 01, 2012
SAVERS BE DAMNED, KEEP INFLATING CREDIT BUBBLE
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10648 Doug Noland
>>Watching it all, I struggle even more with the notion of “financial repression.” “Saver repression” and “bear suppression” make sense to me. Returns for the rationally risk averse investor are being depressed, no doubt about that. Yet it is an altogether different story for the financial speculator: Instead of repression, it’s Financial Liberation. Never has the investment landscape been so stacked against the saver and investor in favor of the speculator community.<<
REG gas now $4 or higher in most parts of the country, and we have not started the rise we usually get into the summer driving season, it seems destined that gas prices will go even higher.
Savers are repressed, even penalized as 0% FED funds rate continues unabated, this policy has managed to inflate RISK ASSETS, stocks to their best quarter since?....1998!!!
SO, did we avert a financial armagedon meltdown in 2009? or did we kick that can down the road, is it possible with even MORE dire circumstances and results?
A $500,000 nest egg of savings in a Bond Money Market, one of the safest places to store money, can only yield about $50 in interest.....$50 for half a million in hard earned savings......is no one asking how the FED policies are killing those at retirement age and those who do not wish to roll the dice with risk assets? WHERE is the balance, where is the incentive to SAVE, increase bank deposits?
And the still near 2% 10 year Bond stays low with continue Federal Reserve intervention now 3 years old.
WHERE in any handbook does it say....you avoid the PIPER if you continue to inflate a credit bubble that has burst with one even more unmanagable in scope? Bernanke, from all accounts I erad, will be seen in history's rear view mirror as one who handled the situation like a skilled surgeon. And will be lauded as one of the best FED Chairman we have ever had....he was just what we needed.
But at 3% 15 yr and 4% 30 year...the housing market has yet to heal, prices yr/yr continue to decline and existing homes for sale continue to sit on the market, hard to sell.
I keep hearing where Consumer Confidence is rising, but it sits so far below normal and any other recovery, no one talking about that. WHAT could stop perspective home buyers from buying a home right now? Fear? of what? keeping or losing a job? don't we have one helluva recovery going on now?
Hiring more people at this point may be OK for AAPL, but the increasing employee costs are starting to take a bite out of profits....spending on durable goods is still subdued compared to any previous recovery.
Amazon is putting the hurt to traditional retailers like Best Buy, who will close a bunch of stores, and needs to rethink how they go to market, Amazon is putting some hurt to traditional powerhouses like Walmart. Isn't it great as a Retailer, you rent the space, fill it with products and employees...so the wonderful COnsumer can come, see, waste your time, SCAN....and then buy from online retailers who have NO expenses for store fronts from where Consumers can touch and feel products to decide if they want?
WHY NOT go and sit on chairs in a store, then go anf find them cheaper online, thanks for nothing. Gd bless the internet.
So we will be left with a society that makes nothing, supported by Gov't payouts......making nothing, but buying everything?
WHO doesn't think that 0% interest rates, and the current policies won't lead to an even more catostrophic collapse?
Haven't we already witnessed since 2000 what such intervention will lead us too? And now even more HISTORIC FED and GOVT games, to put off that day of reckoning, the paying to the piper what he is owed.....already the GAP between the HAVE'S and the NOT'S is ever widening.....I hope in the end, social unrest is not what we get.....like we saw in Europe...
D
>>Watching it all, I struggle even more with the notion of “financial repression.” “Saver repression” and “bear suppression” make sense to me. Returns for the rationally risk averse investor are being depressed, no doubt about that. Yet it is an altogether different story for the financial speculator: Instead of repression, it’s Financial Liberation. Never has the investment landscape been so stacked against the saver and investor in favor of the speculator community.<<
REG gas now $4 or higher in most parts of the country, and we have not started the rise we usually get into the summer driving season, it seems destined that gas prices will go even higher.
Savers are repressed, even penalized as 0% FED funds rate continues unabated, this policy has managed to inflate RISK ASSETS, stocks to their best quarter since?....1998!!!
SO, did we avert a financial armagedon meltdown in 2009? or did we kick that can down the road, is it possible with even MORE dire circumstances and results?
A $500,000 nest egg of savings in a Bond Money Market, one of the safest places to store money, can only yield about $50 in interest.....$50 for half a million in hard earned savings......is no one asking how the FED policies are killing those at retirement age and those who do not wish to roll the dice with risk assets? WHERE is the balance, where is the incentive to SAVE, increase bank deposits?
And the still near 2% 10 year Bond stays low with continue Federal Reserve intervention now 3 years old.
WHERE in any handbook does it say....you avoid the PIPER if you continue to inflate a credit bubble that has burst with one even more unmanagable in scope? Bernanke, from all accounts I erad, will be seen in history's rear view mirror as one who handled the situation like a skilled surgeon. And will be lauded as one of the best FED Chairman we have ever had....he was just what we needed.
But at 3% 15 yr and 4% 30 year...the housing market has yet to heal, prices yr/yr continue to decline and existing homes for sale continue to sit on the market, hard to sell.
I keep hearing where Consumer Confidence is rising, but it sits so far below normal and any other recovery, no one talking about that. WHAT could stop perspective home buyers from buying a home right now? Fear? of what? keeping or losing a job? don't we have one helluva recovery going on now?
Hiring more people at this point may be OK for AAPL, but the increasing employee costs are starting to take a bite out of profits....spending on durable goods is still subdued compared to any previous recovery.
Amazon is putting the hurt to traditional retailers like Best Buy, who will close a bunch of stores, and needs to rethink how they go to market, Amazon is putting some hurt to traditional powerhouses like Walmart. Isn't it great as a Retailer, you rent the space, fill it with products and employees...so the wonderful COnsumer can come, see, waste your time, SCAN....and then buy from online retailers who have NO expenses for store fronts from where Consumers can touch and feel products to decide if they want?
WHY NOT go and sit on chairs in a store, then go anf find them cheaper online, thanks for nothing. Gd bless the internet.
So we will be left with a society that makes nothing, supported by Gov't payouts......making nothing, but buying everything?
WHO doesn't think that 0% interest rates, and the current policies won't lead to an even more catostrophic collapse?
Haven't we already witnessed since 2000 what such intervention will lead us too? And now even more HISTORIC FED and GOVT games, to put off that day of reckoning, the paying to the piper what he is owed.....already the GAP between the HAVE'S and the NOT'S is ever widening.....I hope in the end, social unrest is not what we get.....like we saw in Europe...
D
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