D
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PLUNGES IN MAY
And this is good for the economy how? And it was already the weakest recovery since they began tabulating this information.
But why worry, the market is up triple digit!!?? SO WHAT, as far as I know it is up because the players figure the weak data insures more FED intervention, you know same QE gambit they got my back kind of thing.....so it emboldens speculation but it sure doesn't do much for investment!
D
Thursday, May 24, 2012
NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY?
The current 0% rates and under 4% 30 year mortgage rates have not fixed the problem, but it has screwed the FIXED INCOME market and those who were depending on that income.
I suspect for these and other obvious reasons the Bear Market that began in 2007 and was interupted in 2009 has not completed and finished its work. FED and Gov't policy has done nothing but ADD to the imbalances and has NOT induced investment that creates jobs, but has only induced SPECULATION which destroys jobs...HP laying off more workers.....
Duratek
DIRECTION OF DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALLING
D
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Friday, May 18, 2012
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
IT HAS BEGUN
"Seniors clamoring to invest in Facebook IPO"
Sure, go ahead and make that ahole Zuckerberg a BILLIONAIR, and what better people to do it than the ultimate bagholders, our seniors.
More than likely a NEW BEAR MKT has begun, I have been warning about the deteriorating environment for stocks (and economy) for weeks and that getting more defensive could be a very good idea.
OIL, and other commodities have been receding, and Bond market is red hot as seen as SAFE HAVEN. The US 10 year yields 1.79% !!!!
Be careful out there.
D
Sure, go ahead and make that ahole Zuckerberg a BILLIONAIR, and what better people to do it than the ultimate bagholders, our seniors.
More than likely a NEW BEAR MKT has begun, I have been warning about the deteriorating environment for stocks (and economy) for weeks and that getting more defensive could be a very good idea.
OIL, and other commodities have been receding, and Bond market is red hot as seen as SAFE HAVEN. The US 10 year yields 1.79% !!!!
Be careful out there.
D
Monday, May 14, 2012
AM SPX CHART
If open goes way of futures, the trading range consolidation will be broken
D
A WAY OUT
Here is the bottom line, the way out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression is to print money. With freshly minted money, this would be used to pay off the debts that were incurred with older money (higher value). Anyone getting paid in todays money that was owed in yesterdays money couldn't be too happy about the still wet inked money as payment.
The ECB printed $trillions of Euros and the FED has printed $2.5 Trillion or so, and our Gov't has been running on average $1.2T in deficits the past 3 years (this compares to $400 B for the Bush adm). No wonder why gold toughed near $1,700 an ounce and OIL ran to above $100 a barrel.
Did this fix anything? Maybe the worst was delayed but not sure it ws averted. In for a penny in for a pound, should they continue this policy of printing to solve the crisis?
This shifts the pain directly to the middle class savers who get nothing for their money unless they risk it in the stock market.
A debt crisis is solved by piling on more debt? Can you spend your way to prosperity? I thought you saved and invested your way to sustainable economic expansion.......not speculated in the markets to a new economy. Not HFT (high frequency trading) to a new expansion and prosperity. Not used SUPER computers to front run trades, is the voting mechanism for stocks dead?
D
The ECB printed $trillions of Euros and the FED has printed $2.5 Trillion or so, and our Gov't has been running on average $1.2T in deficits the past 3 years (this compares to $400 B for the Bush adm). No wonder why gold toughed near $1,700 an ounce and OIL ran to above $100 a barrel.
Did this fix anything? Maybe the worst was delayed but not sure it ws averted. In for a penny in for a pound, should they continue this policy of printing to solve the crisis?
This shifts the pain directly to the middle class savers who get nothing for their money unless they risk it in the stock market.
A debt crisis is solved by piling on more debt? Can you spend your way to prosperity? I thought you saved and invested your way to sustainable economic expansion.......not speculated in the markets to a new economy. Not HFT (high frequency trading) to a new expansion and prosperity. Not used SUPER computers to front run trades, is the voting mechanism for stocks dead?
D
Friday, May 11, 2012
NO FEAR....YET?
We're still in a trading range, lower level defined is highlighted. VIX below levels that would show rising fear. Bonds for 10 years yield around 1.84%, so if you NEED returns, what you gonna do?
If you haven't gotten more defensive, you might want to think about it. You ignore your portfolio and we do enter another Bear Market, are you OK with seeing maybe 40% of your investment value decline? or more. Talk to your financial advisor and see what they say, does it make sense to you?
D
NICE HEADLINE TO START THE MORNING
7:21AM: CEO Jamie Dimon cites 'errors' and 'bad judgment' in trades meant to hedge risk
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
MAY SPX SWOON
There is a VERY good chance stocks have made THE TOP in this cyclical bull mkt that began in 2009, small investor participation was already, or better described as never bought into the recovery theme, so volume in the rally has been light.
Labor participation rates remain at or near historic lows, more than 25% of Americans are upside down in their homes and have no way out except default or to stay. If your home is not worth what you paid, pretty hard to refinance at todays historic low rates. If you can't sell your home, pretty hard to scoop up retirement home values.....still pressure on home valuations in most areas of the country.
The only thing the FED and GOV'T have been able to do is PROP up stock prices, for the last 3 plus years. This has done nothing for savings and investment. This has done nothing for credit and debt, only piled on more......the truth will never be told to the American public...there is NO savior, it sure isn't Romney, it sure isn't Obama.
Are you still 100% invested in stocks? It might be good idea to talk to your financial advisor and discuss what another BEAR MARKET might do to your current portfolio...just saying.
D
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Simple game.....buy low, sell high
STOCKS ARE WAY OVERPRICED, and headed for a long fall IMHO. The economy is not as advertised, and if it wasn't for the FED and US GOVT backstop and propping it would not be anywhere close to where it is. We have artificial insemination of the markets.....we have a bastard market.
People, we don't have growth and if you even believe we have 2.2% GDP.....that's pathetic, stocks should NOT be at a premium here.
Simple game.....buy low, sell high
D
People, we don't have growth and if you even believe we have 2.2% GDP.....that's pathetic, stocks should NOT be at a premium here.
Simple game.....buy low, sell high
D
Sunday, May 06, 2012
4 YEAR CYCLE TOP?
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/03/four-year-cycle-approaching-crest.html Decision point, great site by Carl Swenlin
As I've discussed before, if you only look at stock market performance through the eyes of the Dow Industrial 30, that is a narrow view. AS Bull mkts mature, it is normal for investors to get less risky and move money into the larger cap stocks. SO even as this may take the DOW to new rally highs, it is possible to see a good many companies begin to underperform, a WARNING sign trouble may be brewing.
Case in point, AAPL....after first breaking below $600, after earnings it ramped near $60 a share, why worry? but since then the stock appears to have rolled over.
Are stocks rolling over? I believe so.
D
As I've discussed before, if you only look at stock market performance through the eyes of the Dow Industrial 30, that is a narrow view. AS Bull mkts mature, it is normal for investors to get less risky and move money into the larger cap stocks. SO even as this may take the DOW to new rally highs, it is possible to see a good many companies begin to underperform, a WARNING sign trouble may be brewing.
Are stocks rolling over? I believe so.
D
POLICY THWARTS REAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY
REVENGE OF RISK OFF http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10659
"KEYNESIAN policies ensure historic expansion of gov't debt, blunt stimulus that inflates incomes and consumption while doing little to incentivize sound investment and a self sustaining, job creating recovery.....massive govt imposed distortions (and FED 0% rate policy) thwart necessary restrucuring."
and foster stock market speculation vs sound investment....FIX THAT!
"KEYNESIAN policies ensure historic expansion of gov't debt, blunt stimulus that inflates incomes and consumption while doing little to incentivize sound investment and a self sustaining, job creating recovery.....massive govt imposed distortions (and FED 0% rate policy) thwart necessary restrucuring."
and foster stock market speculation vs sound investment....FIX THAT!
Friday, May 04, 2012
EXTEND AND PRETEND
ALmost all the jobs being produced in economy are derived from the pretend numbers the Gov't makes up from its BIRTH DEATH MODEL.
If you factor in inflation it looks as wages and corporate profits are stagnant. I continue to contend we are in the process of putting in A TOP in the bull mkt that began in 2009 which was born out of FED intervention and gaming.
NO important structural changes or improvments have ocurred, all that has been been is ADD to the adjustments that are still needed and delay the inevitable......making it worse for most.
D
If you factor in inflation it looks as wages and corporate profits are stagnant. I continue to contend we are in the process of putting in A TOP in the bull mkt that began in 2009 which was born out of FED intervention and gaming.
NO important structural changes or improvments have ocurred, all that has been been is ADD to the adjustments that are still needed and delay the inevitable......making it worse for most.
D
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
WEAK JOBS REPORT
Economy: "The ADP report showed that the private sector added 119,000 jobs in April. That's considerably less than the forecast of 170,000 new jobs, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. It's also a significant decline from the prior month, when the private sector added 201,000 jobs.
Factory orders for the month of March are expected to have dropped by 1.8%."
Slowing world economies could not be seen as a good back drop here in the US. Fewer and fewer stocks are taking part in the rally to new highs, we have an aging BULL MARKET, act accordingly.
D
Factory orders for the month of March are expected to have dropped by 1.8%."
Slowing world economies could not be seen as a good back drop here in the US. Fewer and fewer stocks are taking part in the rally to new highs, we have an aging BULL MARKET, act accordingly.
D
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