"CONSUMER SPENDING STALLS"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/u-s-consumer-spending-unchanged-in-may-weakest-in-six-months.html

The data are “consistent with a weakening growth backdrop,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “There’s still this propensity for consumers to boost their rate of savings, which is what you’d expect in an environment where they are very skeptical about the outlook for the labor market.”

What most people focus on are the day to day swings, brainless commentary and the nauseating headlines. WHoopie Euro zone has another plan, hey but this is a NEW NEW one for bailing out the banking system, well HOORAY that must fix everything, where's all that money coming from to do the bailing out? SEE GOLD JUMPS

Recent manufacturing data shows trouble ahead, as back orders get eaten into, consumer confidence flags, well it never relly recovered much, UNLIKE ANY OTHER so called recovery. SO it looks like we are headed for another Recession, even though we haven't had much of a recovery.

Heading itno 2014, Defense spending has been SLASHED (so they say) and will result in the loss of about 1 MILLION jobs, over 100,000 of those in manufacturing.

The world markets appear to be in bear markets, so JUST the US will do just fine right, as we are so much better and we keep hearing how great corporate profits are.

DONT KID YOURSELF, BE PREPARED......the bag holding continues as with each little rally hope springs eternal, but for those who want to UNLOAD to YOU the again unsuspecting bag holder who can least afford to see his stock portfolio drop by 50%...again.

THINK about the current 0% rate environment, about the coming changes in tax law and Gov't spending. THE PIPER has yet to be paid, daggonit, and all we get are the same song and dance, same stupid policies, SOS

D

MORNING SET UP

SPX futures up 26 plus, DEal for ANOTHER EURO BANK BAIL OUT inked last night, WEEEE.

Now you know how fair the markets are to the avg Joe and why the rally began "mysteriously" yesterday at 3 PM recovering from triple digit losses.

There is more going on then continued money printing and bailouts....cannot PAPER over the issues for long.

D

PULLING , PUSHING, TUGGING ON A STRING

"Just as Keynes warned would happen, Bernanke has found himself pushing on a string. No matter how much liquidity the Fed pumps into the economy, it doesn't seem to make much difference. With mortgage rates well below 4%, the housing market remains depressed. With borrowing costs at record lows, corporations sit on cash and refuse to invest in plant and equipment. In circumstances such as these, an expansionary monetary policy doesn't necessarily ensure a vigorous recovery. That is why modern Keynesians, of whom Bernanke is one, also favor fiscal stimulus."

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/28/bernanke-trapped/?iid=HP_LN full story

The ADM claims it has saved or created 3 MILLION jobs in 4 years, at a cost of over $2 TRILLION in Govt and FED actions, the cost oer job is around $800,000 !!!

Was it worth it? Of course not, it's a waste of our resources and hasn't help grow the economy much.

EUROPE seems to be hanging by a thread, is this the time to be complacent?

D

ANOTHER FAVORITE CHART LOOKING FOR THE TREND

HEDGING GONE WRONG, FALLING OIL HURTS AIRLINES!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedges-bust-airlines-hit-crude-194422293.html
"Delta Air Lines, which Tuesday morning announced that busted fuel hedges had resulted in a $155 million second-quarter loss, became the first in what could be a series of major carriers to take pain from an unexpected plunge in crude prices."

BDI IN SOLID DOWNTREND

Lots has been made out of the BDI, many say it doesn't mean anything, because more ships now in fleet, etc. I happen to not agree, the BDI does not reflect a thriving world economy, if it did , rates would be in solid uptrend.

D

SOMETIMES TALK IS ALL THAT IS LEFT

"Not only does Ben Bernanke walk a thin tightrope above Wall Street and Congress, he does so while jawboning the entire audience across the gorge."
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/how-much-longer-can-the-fed-jawbone-markets.html/?ref=SBMP

Nearly 4 years into recovery, we still have unemployment over 8%, and an economy not producing enough jobs, and economy limping along, not collapsing, but not in any way similar to the historical norms. The recovery will go down as weakest in history on almost all data points.

The FED may still be able to goose the stock market, but each time, they do or say something the effects wear thin in shorter durations, less bang for buck...pulling on a string, law of diminishing returns.

The market may be worried about 2013, when Bush tax cuts fade away, can the Gov't continue to support these policies any longer?

We have that ONE THING that others do not have, the RESERVE CURRENCY, job #1 of the FED is supposed to be protecting the currency, keeping it stable. Instead the printing presses have gone full bore since 2008-2009. The ONLY thing keeping the greenback from an all out tailspin is EUROPE appears worse. That's how they have FED manipulated the bond yields to record lows including operations like TWIST where they become buyers of Treasuries to pin rates lower with false demand, FEAR and still seen as SAFE HAVEN.

But current yields are destroying balance in the economy, killing returns for millions of savers ans seniors, who until the low yields reached near 0%, they did SPEND those returns, now they cannot.

DO we want a $5 tip to become a $425 tip in inflated ass wipe paper? That's what it equals in Jamaican currency now.

Taxes and fees are slated to rise, at the STATE level they already are. We are becoming a class of poor and rich as the middle class get contunally squeezed, this is not the best scenario for our country.

Obama's policies have been a failure, and Bush's previous spending and recklessness lit the fuse.....does it really matter who runs the WHite House at this point?

D

BACK

Been out of the country, in Jamaica man. Went from 100 degrees to 91 degrees, the people are so nice, first time back in 30 years.

On the stock market front, not much has changed, we're in a trading zone but I haven't changed my mind that the larger degree trend is BEAR. More later when I catch up in the week.

D

"BAKED IN EFFICIENCY"

"All governments claim to revere productivity, but in the U.S. and Europe, they are going the wrong way about getting it. Subsidizing the useless (including the ineffable rat holes of the “green energy” sector) while taxing the productive, and keeping interest rates for years on end at levels that penalize the thrifty, cannot be expected to produce higher productivity and is not doing so. While current policies persist, those regions’ economic decline will continue."

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10677

by Martin Hutchinson

HAS MARKET BROKEN OUT OF DOWNTREND?

In the short term, maybe and it's all based on GREEK HOPE.
Could be false breakout if reversed Monday, more Resistance near 1348

D

NEWS A DOSE OF

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-recession-warning-signs-everywhere-201200023.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-crisis-stock-telling-markets-173254418.html   CS bank has now fallen below levels seen 2009.

And finally, when will news or HOPE of FED OR CB action bring the mkt back?

Wall Street Ends Higher on Possible Central Bank Action News

Reuters
Stocks rose on Thursday after news major central banks are preparing coordinated action if the results of Greek elections this weekend generate turmoil in financial markets.

SPX NEAR 1250 MUST HOLD

EXPERTS WEIGH IN

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's been a hot and cold year for stocks so far, but Wall Street experts are optimistic that the market will emerge from its recent funk to end the year with solid gains. "

BACK UP?

From my prior chart of the SP 500 you can see a possible reverse head and shoulders forming with neckline at 1335 area.

D

MARKET SET UP

LOW EXPECTATIONS?

Low Expectations May Offer More Market Opportunity

Breakout
"Right now, the market has easy hurdles to meet," says Jack Ablin, the CIO at Harris Private Bank. "Valuations are certainly expecting the worst and psychology and investors' attitudes are pretty low." More »Low Expectations May Offer More Market Opportunity

A VIX at 23 IMHO does not show investor fear, volume rises with declines and whithers on rallies, who doesn't think we have had distribution going on during the "rallies"?

D

ALCOA WARNS WE ARE "IN" A BEAR MARKET

This time the general stock market is holding up a bit better, but interest rates were not at 0% yet in 2008.

D

OH, WHAT A RELIEF IT ISN'T

EU’s €100 Billion Bailout Not Enough to Buy a Relief Rally

Monday's are great for gap ups, but once in awhile they don't last. Continued money printing, laundering or out of thin air, does nothing to create jobs.

We are coming down from a sugar high, and it doens't feel that great. NEEDED rebalancing from years and years of credit glut excesses, and FED goosing, and imbalances have been fought tooth and claw....making the inevitable, just delayed and perhaps worse.

D

BEAR BOUNCE OR?

We still see expanding volume on the delcines, and whithering volume on the bounces. My analysis and my feet on the street observations say chinese water torture.

D

FETID ARTICLE FOR THE MASSES

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-load-falling-fastest-040045522.html

Surely gov't debt is falling at fastest rate......defaults and writedowns probably have nothing to do with it, and further more, I have hard time swalloing this with the way the Federal deficit has been skyrocketing, I think this article is pure BS

D

CLOSE UP OF SPX MARKET ACTION

IF ECONOMY WEAKENS?

Bernanke: Fed Could Act if Economy Weakens

AP
"Chairman Ben Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps if the U.S. economy weakens, but he didn't signal any action is imminent."

China just lowered rate by .25% to stimulate......hmmmm stimulate demand? certainly not jobs as there is OVER CAPACITY  in the world economies...

D

TRANSPORTS CONFIRM OVERALL MARKET WEAKNESS

When I had originally set up this chart I labeled it "bearish broadening wedge" for the transports and indeed 'WATCH THE 200" as it now has broken down and the action is below the 200, as it is for the SPX and DOW.

I used here an EXPONENTIAL MA which puts more emphasis on recent action.

D

ANOTHER LEADER FALLS BELOW 200 DAY MOVING AVG

Also the fear index the VIX has broken out above its 200 and 400 DMA. MORE SIGNS HE BEAR IS BACK.

US DOLLAR RALLY STALLING?

On the monthly chart it cetainly has me leaning a $ rally retrace may be near, and I am wondering if with that will come a US stock rally.....FED meets next week....usually they find a way to goose the markets....I mean that seems to be their number one job

D

COUNTER

After 8 years of blogging, and the changes in google analytics I added a counter to track traffic to my site. SO...when I arrived today it was 30....so....not 30 over 8 years.. haa

D

AVALANCHE OF SELLING COMING?

Watch for avalanche of sell orders Monday

"June 1, 2012, 6:11 PM

Monday’s trading will be the first opportunity stock investors in the U.S. will have to act on a major technical violation that occurred at Friday’s close: The breaking of the 200-day moving average."

IMPORTANT SUPPORT VIOLATED

10 YEAR DROPS TO LOWEST YIELD IN 200 YR HISTORY!

OK, "flight to safety?", so why is the stock market still double off the lows? you going to stay in stocks thru another Bear mkt? just saying....

D