Monday, July 30, 2012
THE COOKIE IS CRUMBLING
Earnings Season: It’s the Revenue, Stupid!
Breakout"Only 42% of companies have beat revenue estimates so far, well below an average of 60% from the last four years," says John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. More »
Saturday, July 28, 2012
CLOSE UP OF CURRENT SPX RALLY
There is not volume nor conviction in the market, what we have are hopes and prayers and sound bites that allow the players to hose the shorts with weak hands.
REALLY....is a 1.5 GDP a sign of good news? REALLY? Is a promise to "defend" the EURO by one of the players a big deal or anything new? Does it help their economies that are sinking or lower their interest rates that are making it impossible to fund their debts?
Here the 1.5 GDP is said to be a MEET EXPECTATION or BEAT??? on one hand and the other opens door for "MORE FED INTERVENTION"??????
Not in any life I live does any of that add up for me, nor does the market action which is msking underlying weakness and warnings from some our top companies about future earnings and prospects for the economy.
D
Friday, July 27, 2012
WEAKENING FUNDAMENTALS. TRIM TABS BEARISH
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economic-growth-slowed-1-123346624.html
"US economic growth slows to 1.5 percent annual rate(note they say TOPS ESTIMATES!!) from April-June, consumer spending weakens
"US economic growth slows to 1.5 percent annual rate(note they say TOPS ESTIMATES!!) from April-June, consumer spending weakens
US economic growth slows to 1.5 percent annual rate from April-June, consumer spending weakens"
"Despite Mario Draghi's reassurance that the ECB will do everything in its power to save the euro zone, Europe is not going to do anything meaningful and central bank action will not save the equity markets - on the contrary, they'll "implode", Charles Biderman, Chief Executive and Founder of TrimTabs Investment Research, told CNBC."
Yes looking ahead though it is likely Growth in coming quarters will slow below that and that is CONTRACTION.
If so, look out for falling stock prices which have been propped up by FED actions. And should the FED lose ANY cred with investors.....kaboom.
D
Thursday, July 26, 2012
ZYNGA INSIDERS CASH OUT BEFORE CRASH, FB FACEPLANT AND MORE
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/zynga-insiders-cashed-just-stock-crashed-144334658.html
Face Book takes a face plant in after hours, man did the IPO and then some after get hosed on that POS!
I hate to say it, but I do believe it, we're entering the MOST painful phase of the longest running Bear Market since the Great Depression.
You will survive, so will our country, but how different will it look? Will we still have the Reserve currency. The current administration has added $5 TRILLION of debt to our countries deficits in just 4 years almost 50% increase.
He concentrated on Health Care reform when the economy is job # 1.
Bush tax cuts are ending in 2013, but the congress just argues and does the circle jerk....."we will handle this next year, we have plenty of time....." OMG!!!
We are nearing the end of the longest running bull markets of all time, the BOND MARKET! AT some point, will it be an orderly rise to interest rates?
We have historic LOW interest rates at the same time we have the largest deficits that need funding??? REALLY does this make sense to you? This is possible as US GOVT BONDS are seen as a "SAFE HAVEN" but yields SNOT! It may be seen safer than any EURO bond right now....but it's not like the US has its fiscal health in order....there is NO end in sight to the $trillion deficits and we are not even talking about SS and Medicare entitlements that bring the total tab to around $100 TRILLION.
What IF the 10 year bond starts to tick up making our debt harder to finance, or those buying require higher rates to buy? With SO MANY countries scrambling to sell debt how can all the debt be funded?
MANY "players" continue to talk about the coming runaway inflation, really? You can create money....digitally but it has to get out into the real economy to do that kind of damage.
Other than commodities, like raw stuff for food and energy have been effected by the falling US $? DO we have too much money chasing too few goods? classic definition of inflation.
We have too few monies chasing TOO many goods....creating a scenario for falling prices if not propped up one way or another.
If a EURO goon comes out and says blah blah sup-port EURO blah blah...the market ignites? more like death throes.
Some KEY companies in the economy have warned. There WILL be pockets of strength....all business doesn't die, but in a slowdown of spending and investment....where all the FED seems capable of doing is either talking a good game or throwing money to keep stocks suspended....the REAL ECONOMY will continue to deteriorate wothout real investment.
Normally that comes from real savings, that banks lend out in the form of loans to real peopl, eral companies who intend to expand their business ans buy products and hire REAL PEOPLE.
NOBODY gets it. OBAMA and ROMNEY together couldn't make a 2 ring circus, both are clowns.
SURE the people are hurting, you need to support business FOOLS, they hire....the GOVT doesnt make anything, but war.
Defense spending cuts into 2014 will be drag and eliminate anywhere from 1 to 2 million jobs. We've shipped scads of manufacturing off the China, and if you have a net connection jobs to India and Philippines.
YET, companies right here in MD do not have enough "skilled" workers to fill certain jobs....most have forgotten or never learned to use their hands except to text or play XBOX.
WE have a lost generation of kids that are experts in CALL OF DUTY, but can't tie their own shoes! Will be living home with mommy and daddy until their thrown out at 30.
8% plus OFFICIAL unemployment 3 years after bottom of crisis is indicative of a more insidious problem.
There are man brave and wonderful people in this country willing to die for their country, who treat their fellow man with respect and care. and in all different tax brackets.....many more good people than those who are as crazy like psycho in Colorado....many more HEROES than losers...they deserve better,,,,a better govt.
We live in a world manipulated by just a FEW MEN, the men of the Federal Reserve, and even though their 0% rate policy has only worked to goose markets (temporarily), and STARVE savers of any real return on their money....they continue....and talk of more QE.
MORE QE would cause gold to spike along with other commodities causing an inflationary like virus.
They have expanded their balance sheets 4 fold....they talk like they can do more....the law of diminishing return has hit....AUDIT THE FED movement is gaining momentum....none of this good in a time where the insiders still believe the FED can save them from anything, even as more imbalances are being pile on top of the ones already there...and many feel they have green light to buy stocks with a FED backstop.....remove the allure and belief in the FED can fix anything and watch this thing unravel very quickly.
Duratek
Face Book takes a face plant in after hours, man did the IPO and then some after get hosed on that POS!
I hate to say it, but I do believe it, we're entering the MOST painful phase of the longest running Bear Market since the Great Depression.
You will survive, so will our country, but how different will it look? Will we still have the Reserve currency. The current administration has added $5 TRILLION of debt to our countries deficits in just 4 years almost 50% increase.
He concentrated on Health Care reform when the economy is job # 1.
Bush tax cuts are ending in 2013, but the congress just argues and does the circle jerk....."we will handle this next year, we have plenty of time....." OMG!!!
We are nearing the end of the longest running bull markets of all time, the BOND MARKET! AT some point, will it be an orderly rise to interest rates?
We have historic LOW interest rates at the same time we have the largest deficits that need funding??? REALLY does this make sense to you? This is possible as US GOVT BONDS are seen as a "SAFE HAVEN" but yields SNOT! It may be seen safer than any EURO bond right now....but it's not like the US has its fiscal health in order....there is NO end in sight to the $trillion deficits and we are not even talking about SS and Medicare entitlements that bring the total tab to around $100 TRILLION.
What IF the 10 year bond starts to tick up making our debt harder to finance, or those buying require higher rates to buy? With SO MANY countries scrambling to sell debt how can all the debt be funded?
MANY "players" continue to talk about the coming runaway inflation, really? You can create money....digitally but it has to get out into the real economy to do that kind of damage.
Other than commodities, like raw stuff for food and energy have been effected by the falling US $? DO we have too much money chasing too few goods? classic definition of inflation.
We have too few monies chasing TOO many goods....creating a scenario for falling prices if not propped up one way or another.
If a EURO goon comes out and says blah blah sup-port EURO blah blah...the market ignites? more like death throes.
Some KEY companies in the economy have warned. There WILL be pockets of strength....all business doesn't die, but in a slowdown of spending and investment....where all the FED seems capable of doing is either talking a good game or throwing money to keep stocks suspended....the REAL ECONOMY will continue to deteriorate wothout real investment.
Normally that comes from real savings, that banks lend out in the form of loans to real peopl, eral companies who intend to expand their business ans buy products and hire REAL PEOPLE.
NOBODY gets it. OBAMA and ROMNEY together couldn't make a 2 ring circus, both are clowns.
SURE the people are hurting, you need to support business FOOLS, they hire....the GOVT doesnt make anything, but war.
Defense spending cuts into 2014 will be drag and eliminate anywhere from 1 to 2 million jobs. We've shipped scads of manufacturing off the China, and if you have a net connection jobs to India and Philippines.
YET, companies right here in MD do not have enough "skilled" workers to fill certain jobs....most have forgotten or never learned to use their hands except to text or play XBOX.
WE have a lost generation of kids that are experts in CALL OF DUTY, but can't tie their own shoes! Will be living home with mommy and daddy until their thrown out at 30.
8% plus OFFICIAL unemployment 3 years after bottom of crisis is indicative of a more insidious problem.
There are man brave and wonderful people in this country willing to die for their country, who treat their fellow man with respect and care. and in all different tax brackets.....many more good people than those who are as crazy like psycho in Colorado....many more HEROES than losers...they deserve better,,,,a better govt.
We live in a world manipulated by just a FEW MEN, the men of the Federal Reserve, and even though their 0% rate policy has only worked to goose markets (temporarily), and STARVE savers of any real return on their money....they continue....and talk of more QE.
MORE QE would cause gold to spike along with other commodities causing an inflationary like virus.
They have expanded their balance sheets 4 fold....they talk like they can do more....the law of diminishing return has hit....AUDIT THE FED movement is gaining momentum....none of this good in a time where the insiders still believe the FED can save them from anything, even as more imbalances are being pile on top of the ones already there...and many feel they have green light to buy stocks with a FED backstop.....remove the allure and belief in the FED can fix anything and watch this thing unravel very quickly.
Duratek
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
AUDIT FED GAINS STEAM, PHASE #3 OF BEAR IS COMING
This all plays into the final leg of the great bear mkt. WHen faith is lost in the FED (our saviour) and our do nothing govt which is broke cant get out of its own way, EUROPE is broke. Everybody wants to issue currency, bonds get bailouts....but we are basically broke $100 T if you add unfunded liabilites, Obama a joke....sheeple still believe...MITT a joke
Recent report I read suggests 3 potential outcomes and possible strategies
2. EURO is toast
3. Gold will rise after correction to $3,000 play mining stocks
4. US stocks will fall, can short by being in cash
5. Inflation is real go long inflation (but wil DEFLATION ACTUALLY WIN first?)
We can never pay back out debts, what will our world look like if we lose reserve currency? F ME!
Phase 1 of bear ended 2009 lows, Phase 2 in process near end where they come back for more punishment and think stocks are safe, worse yet the FED policies keep MORE in them even though bond funds getting big flows.
Phase 3 will take us below 2009 lows IMHO
THEN if still around....BUY WITH BOTH FEET...most will not be able or just stomach it.... Our leaders are all BS, they argue about what to do, who to tax or not, and so do nothing. SUPER COMMITTEE formed last year had not one single suggestion.
D
BDI PROXY
INdexes, stocks etc, always go up and down in a pattern, never straight.....DO YOU SEE A TREND HERE? Yes it's a downtrend channel...thank you.
D
HOME SALES ROIL RALLY?
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
IN THE RED
Some noted names in the corporate landscape have been giving less than wonderful earnings result sand warnings about future results.
CHIPOTLE, TXN, UPS, AAPL to name a few. Some experts see $110 SPX profits for 2012....I don't see how this can be accomplished if we get sub 1.5 GDP.
FED Policy can do little to help the economy, and they might be reluctant to do much with elections on the horizon as the unemployment rate remains stubbornly above 8% almost 4 years into so-called recovery.
The FED has expanded their balance sheet 3 fold since crisis began but they control barely 15% of the money supply, bankd control the rest and interbank lending is down 70%!
Money is created when you go to thebank and take out a loan, otherwise it might be just sitting around doing nothing but gaining .25% for the banks, thanks to FED policy
Why not take away the inducement to just let the money sit around.....but in any case, are their people pout there willing to take on risk, loans in this uncertain environment.
Going into 2014 the defense spending cuts have been said will cut anywhere from 1-2 million jobs.
AM I always a bear? It just may seem that way, as I've called 2 bear markets, both BRUTAL in last 10 years....I didn't ask for it, I just call it like I see it.
I run my OWN company, I NEED to sell the products to customers....so trust me, I want to see a vibrant economy....you don't get there in the direction we are headed.
SO I SAY AGAIN, beware.....now after really turning in some amazing profits since 2009....is it starting to unravel?
D
CHIPOTLE, TXN, UPS, AAPL to name a few. Some experts see $110 SPX profits for 2012....I don't see how this can be accomplished if we get sub 1.5 GDP.
FED Policy can do little to help the economy, and they might be reluctant to do much with elections on the horizon as the unemployment rate remains stubbornly above 8% almost 4 years into so-called recovery.
The FED has expanded their balance sheet 3 fold since crisis began but they control barely 15% of the money supply, bankd control the rest and interbank lending is down 70%!
Money is created when you go to thebank and take out a loan, otherwise it might be just sitting around doing nothing but gaining .25% for the banks, thanks to FED policy
Why not take away the inducement to just let the money sit around.....but in any case, are their people pout there willing to take on risk, loans in this uncertain environment.
Going into 2014 the defense spending cuts have been said will cut anywhere from 1-2 million jobs.
AM I always a bear? It just may seem that way, as I've called 2 bear markets, both BRUTAL in last 10 years....I didn't ask for it, I just call it like I see it.
I run my OWN company, I NEED to sell the products to customers....so trust me, I want to see a vibrant economy....you don't get there in the direction we are headed.
SO I SAY AGAIN, beware.....now after really turning in some amazing profits since 2009....is it starting to unravel?
D
Monday, July 23, 2012
A BULLISH CALL FOR TODAY FROM "ANONYMOUS"
2 Comments- Show Original PostCollapse comments
1 – 2 of 2
D
1 – 2 of 2
THIS weekend call from "anonymous", hey I don't have bag over my head when I make a call or comment....?
- Anonymous said...
- 60The BDI is up three percent plus this month. Big S&P rally on the way
Marc R said...- MY, you called that rally well ! haaa Remember MR CEO....your post that 170 pts in DOW a week ago proved a bullish market, how childish. BUT I won't call today's drubbing any more than a bad MONDAY open...fundamentally, if you read the articles of truth, the world has serious issues.
D
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Kondratieff Winter
"The recent admission of price-fixing by Barclays Bank over the Libor rate is just the tip of the iceberg in what is sure to be the greatest financial scandal of our lifetime."
http://kondratieffwinter.com/blog/
The perfect storm in the K Wave Winter
http://www.safehaven.com/article/22646/the-perfect-storm-in-a-kondratieff-long-wave-winter
http://kondratieffwinter.com/blog/
The perfect storm in the K Wave Winter
http://www.safehaven.com/article/22646/the-perfect-storm-in-a-kondratieff-long-wave-winter
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM!!!
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10687
"At 5.62%, two-year yields are almost back to panic spike highs from last November – and are essentially at the highest level since 1997. Despite the EU’s recently negotiated 100bn euro bailout, Spain’s borrowing costs have moved only further into unsustainable territory. The Spanish stock market was hit for 5.8% today. Things have reached the boiling point, as mass public discontent with the latest round of austerity measures recalls Greece’s unraveling."
What would happen here in the US if yields started to rise? How would our government be able to afford the escalating interest payments on our overwhelming debt?
HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM WASHINGTON TIMES
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/14/us-debt-will-keep-growing-even-recovery/
circa 2010 !!
"The government already has made so many promises to so many expanding “mandatory” programs. Just keeping these commitments, without major changes in taxing and spending, will lead to deficits that cannot be sustained.
Take Social Security, Medicare and other benefits. Add in interest payments on a national debt that now exceeds $12.3 trillion. It all will gobble up 80 percent of all federal revenues by 2020, government economists project.
That doesn’t leave room for much else. What’s left is the entire rest of the government, including military and homeland security spending, which has been protected and nurtured by the White House and Congress, regardless of the party in power."
What is brewing? In 2014 as part of the AUSTERITY movement the defense budget is being slashed and studies suggest a HUGE LOSS OF JOBS
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-17/defense-industry-says-budget-cuts-may-cost-2-million-jobs.html July 2012
"Across-the-board cuts to federal programs may cost the U.S. 2.14 million jobs and reduce the gross domestic product by $215 billion next year, according to a study funded by defense contractors lobbying to forestall the reductions. "
OUR US interest rates for the 10 year bond are around 1.5% !! so if you buy them your return will be LESS THAN THE INFLATION RATE??!!
BUY the US stock market and your return could be MINUS 40% !!! IF the Bear market returns (hasn't it?) and is that OK with you? Can you stomach a 20-50% haircut? WE are already over the time limit for the AVERAGE BULL MARKET OF 39 months.....those who bought in early 2009 and fought tremendous levels of FEAR were justly rewarded.....how many of the pros are going to just sit around when she goes SOUTH and let those huge gains evaporate? WHO is going to sit around with HUGE gains and NOT SELL BEFORE the BUSH tax cuts are gone and capital gain TAXES RISE?
Now has it been the savings grace for US stock investors the fact the we are perceived not as bad as Europe? SO why my friends are the yields on our 10 year Bonds at HISTORIC lows? 1.46%? did I just answer my own question? OR is this just the action of those who can access FED money at next to nothing in cost and buying the 10 yr? IS the 10 YR or US treasuries in general still "the safest play if all"?
When in history has the yield been near Historic LOWS (FEAR) and the stock market near its highs? I don't think there was a time....usually stocks sold off and people rushed into bonds driving the yield DOWN.
Now the yield is near its historic lows of 1.440% and stocks are near there highs? DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE? or HAS THE PERFECT STORM TRAP been set?
When the market falls you can sort of BE SHORT the market by being in cash as your worthless cash buys more as prices fall. THIS CANNOT happen if you always just sit it out and HOLD can it?
Our need to finance our debt, the wars, domestic responsibilities, etc etc etc.....is at ALL TIME HIGHS but YIELDS ARE AT ALL TIME LOWS.. "what is the law of supply and demand?
If supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower equilibrium price and higher quantity."
This is one case, because of going through 2 nasty bears here, and problems abroad....and FED buying of their own treasuries in the previous and ongoing QE gambit.....demand for bonds nearly outstrips the supply.....BUT IN SPAIN 2 year yields are near 5.7% !!! and the 10 YR over 7% !!!! HOW CAN THEY FUND THEIR DEBT???? Highest levels since 1997 !!!! and this after historic ECB EURO LAND $100B EURO BAILOUT FUND AGREED UPON????
Are we headed for the fiscal cliff? WE CANNOT continue to go into $TRILLION deficits year after year after year.....SOMEONE HAS TO MAKE THE INTEREST PAYMENTS....THAT SOMEONE'S IS YOU AND ME....and they will do it with AUSTERITY (LOSS OF MORE JOBS) and YES the RAISING OF SERVICES COSTS AND TAXES....
$TRILLIONS have been lost in the first ever year over year decline in home values......so the FED has engineered and targeted the STOCK MARKET for appreciation.....what happens when the words don't come and actions to keep supporting this? HAVE we not come to the fork in the road.
SOONER OR LATER, the imbalances must balance, debts default or have to be inflated away or thye get paid...which one will it be?
D
"At 5.62%, two-year yields are almost back to panic spike highs from last November – and are essentially at the highest level since 1997. Despite the EU’s recently negotiated 100bn euro bailout, Spain’s borrowing costs have moved only further into unsustainable territory. The Spanish stock market was hit for 5.8% today. Things have reached the boiling point, as mass public discontent with the latest round of austerity measures recalls Greece’s unraveling."
What would happen here in the US if yields started to rise? How would our government be able to afford the escalating interest payments on our overwhelming debt?
HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM WASHINGTON TIMES
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/14/us-debt-will-keep-growing-even-recovery/
circa 2010 !!
"The government already has made so many promises to so many expanding “mandatory” programs. Just keeping these commitments, without major changes in taxing and spending, will lead to deficits that cannot be sustained.
Take Social Security, Medicare and other benefits. Add in interest payments on a national debt that now exceeds $12.3 trillion. It all will gobble up 80 percent of all federal revenues by 2020, government economists project.
That doesn’t leave room for much else. What’s left is the entire rest of the government, including military and homeland security spending, which has been protected and nurtured by the White House and Congress, regardless of the party in power."
What is brewing? In 2014 as part of the AUSTERITY movement the defense budget is being slashed and studies suggest a HUGE LOSS OF JOBS
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-17/defense-industry-says-budget-cuts-may-cost-2-million-jobs.html July 2012
"Across-the-board cuts to federal programs may cost the U.S. 2.14 million jobs and reduce the gross domestic product by $215 billion next year, according to a study funded by defense contractors lobbying to forestall the reductions. "
OUR US interest rates for the 10 year bond are around 1.5% !! so if you buy them your return will be LESS THAN THE INFLATION RATE??!!
BUY the US stock market and your return could be MINUS 40% !!! IF the Bear market returns (hasn't it?) and is that OK with you? Can you stomach a 20-50% haircut? WE are already over the time limit for the AVERAGE BULL MARKET OF 39 months.....those who bought in early 2009 and fought tremendous levels of FEAR were justly rewarded.....how many of the pros are going to just sit around when she goes SOUTH and let those huge gains evaporate? WHO is going to sit around with HUGE gains and NOT SELL BEFORE the BUSH tax cuts are gone and capital gain TAXES RISE?
Now has it been the savings grace for US stock investors the fact the we are perceived not as bad as Europe? SO why my friends are the yields on our 10 year Bonds at HISTORIC lows? 1.46%? did I just answer my own question? OR is this just the action of those who can access FED money at next to nothing in cost and buying the 10 yr? IS the 10 YR or US treasuries in general still "the safest play if all"?
When in history has the yield been near Historic LOWS (FEAR) and the stock market near its highs? I don't think there was a time....usually stocks sold off and people rushed into bonds driving the yield DOWN.
Now the yield is near its historic lows of 1.440% and stocks are near there highs? DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE? or HAS THE PERFECT STORM TRAP been set?
When the market falls you can sort of BE SHORT the market by being in cash as your worthless cash buys more as prices fall. THIS CANNOT happen if you always just sit it out and HOLD can it?
Our need to finance our debt, the wars, domestic responsibilities, etc etc etc.....is at ALL TIME HIGHS but YIELDS ARE AT ALL TIME LOWS.. "what is the law of supply and demand?
If supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower equilibrium price and higher quantity."
This is one case, because of going through 2 nasty bears here, and problems abroad....and FED buying of their own treasuries in the previous and ongoing QE gambit.....demand for bonds nearly outstrips the supply.....BUT IN SPAIN 2 year yields are near 5.7% !!! and the 10 YR over 7% !!!! HOW CAN THEY FUND THEIR DEBT???? Highest levels since 1997 !!!! and this after historic ECB EURO LAND $100B EURO BAILOUT FUND AGREED UPON????
Are we headed for the fiscal cliff? WE CANNOT continue to go into $TRILLION deficits year after year after year.....SOMEONE HAS TO MAKE THE INTEREST PAYMENTS....THAT SOMEONE'S IS YOU AND ME....and they will do it with AUSTERITY (LOSS OF MORE JOBS) and YES the RAISING OF SERVICES COSTS AND TAXES....
$TRILLIONS have been lost in the first ever year over year decline in home values......so the FED has engineered and targeted the STOCK MARKET for appreciation.....what happens when the words don't come and actions to keep supporting this? HAVE we not come to the fork in the road.
SOONER OR LATER, the imbalances must balance, debts default or have to be inflated away or thye get paid...which one will it be?
D
Friday, July 20, 2012
"ARE STOCKS CHEAP"?
"Looking at the less bullish era from the 1950s to the early '80s stocks traded around 10x, a valuation Ellis believes to be more applicable today. Calling low P/Es a "siren song" luring investors to their doom, Ellis advises investors to take a cue from the late Baron Biggs and do more legwork before diving in blind."
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/no-market-isn-t-cheap-says-ellis-134154826.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/no-market-isn-t-cheap-says-ellis-134154826.html
Thursday, July 19, 2012
WE ARE NOT EQUAL
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-commodities-risk-leaps-164128344.html
"(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley's commodities trading risk shot to pre-financial crisis highs during the second quarter but revenue from the sector and other trading fell, showing that its bid to buck Wall Street's lower-risk approach did not pay off.
The only major U.S. investment bank to keep risk up while navigating tough oil, metals and grains markets in the three months to June, Morgan Stanley's Value-at-Risk (VaR) in commodities rose to its highest since the second quarter of 2008.
In comparison, arch rival Goldman Sachs slashed its commodities VaR to 8-year lows during the same period."
"(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley's commodities trading risk shot to pre-financial crisis highs during the second quarter but revenue from the sector and other trading fell, showing that its bid to buck Wall Street's lower-risk approach did not pay off.
The only major U.S. investment bank to keep risk up while navigating tough oil, metals and grains markets in the three months to June, Morgan Stanley's Value-at-Risk (VaR) in commodities rose to its highest since the second quarter of 2008.
In comparison, arch rival Goldman Sachs slashed its commodities VaR to 8-year lows during the same period."
ARE EARNINGS "MANAGED"?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cfos-concede-earnings-managed-study-162535508.html
"More to the point, according to the study:
"More to the point, according to the study:
- About half of earnings quality is determined by innate factors - that is by forces outside manager's control.
- About 20 percent of firms manage earnings to misrepresent their economic performance.
- And for such firms, 10 percent of the typical EPS number is managed.
VIX STUDY
Now the VIX is low again under 16, but as you can see above it is in a downtrend....so door is open to higher prices for now, not sure how much higher. RESISTANCE ABOVE at 1374 SPX
D
"HOPE" STILL RULES MARKET?
What Will It Take to Move Bernanke?
BreakoutIt's in investors' interest to determine what actual conditions would be needed to move Bernanke and the FOMC to serve up another round of stimulus. More »What Will It Take to Move Bernanke?
Around 4 MILLION still can't find work since last financial crisis, more easing will just continue to pound savers and make STOCKS only game in town....so will that buoy prices?..indefinately?
Avg Bull lasts 39 months...
MILLIONAIRES FEELING MORE BULLISH
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/millionaires-added-u-stocks-last-040100355.html
Is this a proxy?
"IBM's earnings are healthy, but the company has struggled to grow its revenue. The debt crisis in Europe weighed on IBM's sales in that region, which fell 9% compared to last year. That's a worrisome sign: As one of the biggest tech companies in the world, IBM typically serves as a bellwether for the technology sector and the global economy."
http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/18/technology/ibm-earnings/index.htm?iid=HP_LN Is IBM a proxy?
D
Is this a proxy?
"IBM's earnings are healthy, but the company has struggled to grow its revenue. The debt crisis in Europe weighed on IBM's sales in that region, which fell 9% compared to last year. That's a worrisome sign: As one of the biggest tech companies in the world, IBM typically serves as a bellwether for the technology sector and the global economy."
http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/18/technology/ibm-earnings/index.htm?iid=HP_LN Is IBM a proxy?
D
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
GAMESMANSHIP
As an investor you are left with very little choice in your search for yield, if you must have returns you almost have no other option than the stock market. And the answer for you is it is a "long term" investment, where almost nothing else is.
Bonds now, IT and longer duration come with risk as well to a rate spike and loss of value. IT IS seen as safe haven even at 1.5% or below for 10 years! Money markets return your money, little else.
I have heard it suggested by some experts to buy JUNK BONDS because they yield more, but have greater chance of defaulting, Richard Russel has said various time many mistakes made chasing yields.
The BOND trade FEELS VERY CROWDED, so if money flees bonds it should go into stocks? or where else would it go?
VOLUME is anemic. 1370's on the SPX have offered good resistance, we are there again. 1330 below good support.
If you are a TRADER, you love the market perhaps because you can read its movements between the zones. An investor can be baffled, or can do nothing more than sit tight....no matter what.
It just seems to me, they try to INFLATE the debt and crisis away, but are they successful?
DEFLATION is insidious and ask Japan how easy it is to get escape velocity from it.
I will talk and express opinions related to fundamental issues, but the market will move related to TECHNICAL issues when they give and break or hold.
I no longer buy stocks on an idea or product, only on what the charts tell me is my best bet. If you don't understand technical analysis, you are naked and unpretected.
The biggest mistake one can make is overstaying your welcome when SHORT or LONG.
I am seen by many as a died in wool BEAR, I like to think that I can transcend that moniker and see the market for what it is....ONE POSITION , and leave that sperate from the ISSUES of the world.
D
Bonds now, IT and longer duration come with risk as well to a rate spike and loss of value. IT IS seen as safe haven even at 1.5% or below for 10 years! Money markets return your money, little else.
I have heard it suggested by some experts to buy JUNK BONDS because they yield more, but have greater chance of defaulting, Richard Russel has said various time many mistakes made chasing yields.
The BOND trade FEELS VERY CROWDED, so if money flees bonds it should go into stocks? or where else would it go?
VOLUME is anemic. 1370's on the SPX have offered good resistance, we are there again. 1330 below good support.
If you are a TRADER, you love the market perhaps because you can read its movements between the zones. An investor can be baffled, or can do nothing more than sit tight....no matter what.
It just seems to me, they try to INFLATE the debt and crisis away, but are they successful?
DEFLATION is insidious and ask Japan how easy it is to get escape velocity from it.
I will talk and express opinions related to fundamental issues, but the market will move related to TECHNICAL issues when they give and break or hold.
I no longer buy stocks on an idea or product, only on what the charts tell me is my best bet. If you don't understand technical analysis, you are naked and unpretected.
The biggest mistake one can make is overstaying your welcome when SHORT or LONG.
I am seen by many as a died in wool BEAR, I like to think that I can transcend that moniker and see the market for what it is....ONE POSITION , and leave that sperate from the ISSUES of the world.
D
RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRAIN? LEVEL WITH PUBLIC???
Is it Time for Bernanke to Level With the American Public?
Breakout
Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, says those of you looking to learn what's happening in the U.S. are better off paying attention to almost anything other than Fed Chairman's Congressional testimony. More »Is it Time for Bernanke to Level With the American Public?
*So growth is TOO slow, but on RIGHT RACK?! Thanks for the mind blowing dose of reality Timmy.
This has been the SLOWEST, WEAKEST recovery from a "recession" in history....did they fail to mention that.
But wait, there's more.....all will wait to hear BEN DECLARE MORE QE......that'l fix it.
D
OBAMA TAX PLAN
>>The White House hit back hard late Tuesday at a study by accounting firm Ernst and Young that charged President Barack Obama's signature tax proposal could cost 710,000 jobs, claiming it's chock full of "major flaws, errors and misleading statements."<<<
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/white-house-blasts-study-critical-obama-tax-plan-214215322.html
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/white-house-blasts-study-critical-obama-tax-plan-214215322.html
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Monday, July 16, 2012
RAMBUS "STOCK SPOTLIGHT"
"Rambus is one of the world's premier technology licensing companies. As a company of inventors, Rambus focuses on the development of technologies that enrich the end-user experience of electronic systems. The company reported revenue for the first quarter of 2012 was $62.9 million, down 25% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2011."
IS AN ADVANCE TO CONFOUND BEARS IMMINENT?
"Short sales on the New York Stock Exchange have climbed above last September's peak, a level that preceded a five-month rally and heralded losses for bears.
Shares borrowed and sold reached 5.35 percent of stock available for trading last month, according to data compiled byNYSE Euronext. (NYX) That eclipses 5.28 percent on Sept. 15, when bearish bets peaked last year and the 25 most-shorted companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) began a 21 percent advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sales-nyse-top-2011-135810129.html
I had left door open for an advance to SPX 1400-1450, at prior 2 tops 2000 and 2007 certainly short sales were not overwhleming, still many thought only blue skies. Short covering if they get pushed and held by weaker hands could cause a smart rally to form. The lower level of support so far has held, low volume......anything is on the table.
D
Shares borrowed and sold reached 5.35 percent of stock available for trading last month, according to data compiled byNYSE Euronext. (NYX) That eclipses 5.28 percent on Sept. 15, when bearish bets peaked last year and the 25 most-shorted companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) began a 21 percent advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sales-nyse-top-2011-135810129.html
I had left door open for an advance to SPX 1400-1450, at prior 2 tops 2000 and 2007 certainly short sales were not overwhleming, still many thought only blue skies. Short covering if they get pushed and held by weaker hands could cause a smart rally to form. The lower level of support so far has held, low volume......anything is on the table.
D
Sunday, July 15, 2012
MORE STIMULUS NEEDED
"Earnings will be out in full swing this week. Investors will also mine for clues of potential Fed stimulus."
Certainly $3 Trillion of stimulus was not enough, well all they need to do is keep interest rates DOWN to 0% like they are and the damn ship will get righted?
In the meantime there is another story to be told, the one where savers, yeah mom and dad retired are getting hosed, banks wont get tons of money flowing in because SAVERS get nothing in return so instead of REAL $'s in the bank they must have digital FED $'s to lend to whom?
The stock market has been openly targeted by the FED, what's the big deal, you just play that angle right? Because they can just keep this game up indefinitely right?
Bleep me, I wish I had answers, no one has answers, it is set up as if only speculators can prosper....IMHO this has affected real investment...where is the incentive?
You can have an account of let's say $250K at a broker (one has advertised this recently) and they will give the leverage to $1 Million. And it is hinted that what you do, is take their GIFT at under 2% int rate, and let's say put in something yielding more and you win win win.....it's a no brainer.
Algorithms run super fast computers and makes 1,000's of trades a day looking for nuances, for pennies and more and control more than 50% of all the volume it's coming from HFT.....what happened to the voting mechanism?
They are trying to create INFLATION because what they are afraid of rightly so is DEFLATION.
Does anyone else think something is wrong when a person CANNOT have a choice for SAFE returns on investment......you are basically FORCED into HIGH RISK instruments by those who probably should be protecting you and the $. NO CHOICE IMHO = TROUBLE AHEAD.....
Does it not happen time and time again...the little guy gets hosed.....this time its a bend over marathon!
D
Certainly $3 Trillion of stimulus was not enough, well all they need to do is keep interest rates DOWN to 0% like they are and the damn ship will get righted?
In the meantime there is another story to be told, the one where savers, yeah mom and dad retired are getting hosed, banks wont get tons of money flowing in because SAVERS get nothing in return so instead of REAL $'s in the bank they must have digital FED $'s to lend to whom?
The stock market has been openly targeted by the FED, what's the big deal, you just play that angle right? Because they can just keep this game up indefinitely right?
Bleep me, I wish I had answers, no one has answers, it is set up as if only speculators can prosper....IMHO this has affected real investment...where is the incentive?
You can have an account of let's say $250K at a broker (one has advertised this recently) and they will give the leverage to $1 Million. And it is hinted that what you do, is take their GIFT at under 2% int rate, and let's say put in something yielding more and you win win win.....it's a no brainer.
Algorithms run super fast computers and makes 1,000's of trades a day looking for nuances, for pennies and more and control more than 50% of all the volume it's coming from HFT.....what happened to the voting mechanism?
They are trying to create INFLATION because what they are afraid of rightly so is DEFLATION.
Does anyone else think something is wrong when a person CANNOT have a choice for SAFE returns on investment......you are basically FORCED into HIGH RISK instruments by those who probably should be protecting you and the $. NO CHOICE IMHO = TROUBLE AHEAD.....
Does it not happen time and time again...the little guy gets hosed.....this time its a bend over marathon!
D
Saturday, July 14, 2012
SAT POST. "WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET" and ODDS GAME
Go ahead and criticize others who see the REAL TREND, criticize others who might see a different reality than what a mind spoiled from CNBS it pablum where Cramer is king.....if you are CEO of that thread, do the 2 readers that go there a favor resign....go on an extended vacation..rant over.
If calling the last 2 BEAR MKTS is seen as redundant or bad, than I'm bad. I've openly criticized myself for not acting upon my own FEAR INDEX signals and buying in 2009...I never said BEAR MKTS are forever...if I sound like broken record, thank YOU, high praise with a market pattern that has shown NO upside progress in over 10 years. Put that in your latte and smoke it.
Hard to see forest for the trees in the heat of a forest fire, my own personal situation, an leaving a job I held for over 30 years DID influence me at 2009 bottom, so the very tools I had CONSTRUCTED failed to get me off the sidelines....BURN me at stake for erring on the side of caution when I had made my mind up I couldn't afford to be wrong, or lose what I had accumulated.
FAMOUS line from RR "in bear markets everybody loses, the one's who lose the least win".
GOLD was screaming buy during last 2 phases of the great BEAR, VALUE line continued to rise thru 20003....interest sensitive issue caught fire with record FED intervention at the 2003 bottom....and so did BONDS.
EXPERTS calling for $1,600 AAPL stock, and hardly an analyst callling for ANY CAUTION HERE, and one saying "worst mistake you could make is NOT being in stock market"
What I see is an economy STUCK in neutral, without gov't and FED subsudies would look entirely different and all CB'S fighting the credit crash with all they got, even as the situation worsens and there are visable DIMINISHING RETURNS...but they forge on!
If you got this far, here is http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10685 this weeks Credit Bubble report, another guy who is a broken record....that I love to read.
"Global central bankers have ensured that way too much money now chases limited global risk asset market returns (contemporary prevailing inflation). With global short-term rates pushed near zero, hundreds of billions have flooded into more speculative instruments and ventures, certainly including the global hedge fund community. "
You see, since 2000 the FED and gov't have been fighting tooth andnail the BURST CREDIT BUBBLE.......and so we remain STUCK in the up and down world....as THEY try to keep going to very thing that got us here, but problem is not as many running to trough to drink the elixr.....and their actions have PROLONGED the transition and exorcising the imblanaces THEY created.
Housing limps along, lending limps along, the STOCK MARKET had been TARGETED by the FED, and it shows it is last resort to make people FEELbetter so they spend MORE, but most recent CONSUMER SENTIMENT POLLS shows a weak 72 reading more consistant with RECESSION or worse, instead of more historic rises during recovery to 100-120 reading....who else sees this?
A 0% interest rate policy in the meanwhile has KILLED savers and again thrown the system upside down and it does not resemble anything like normal.....NO all this is to coerce YOU into the market, so assholes like Zuckerberg can cash out and become Billionaires, they don't get rich if you don't buy their paper.
Can everyone who invests make money? WHAT????? how is that, we all put money in stock market and we all make money??? REALLY how's that work?
NOOOO, the mkt is the ultimate PONZI PYRAMID SCHEME.....it stops rising when the last fool is in.....for every winner is a loser at best it balances out. THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS.
FOR DECADES it was OK for politicians to buy stock on INSIDER INFO, but illegal and jail time followed if you did it dear citizen. IS THE SYSTEM RIGGED TO PROTECT YOU OR JOB YOU?
GUCHI ROCKS WHILE THE DOLLAR STORE FLOUNDERS?
Good luck, decide for yourself, "do you see wha I see....." ALL I can tell, tools and from those I respect that I READ and you don't.....say CAUTION is the word of the day...and BEAR is more likely than BULL.
DAMN right I can be WRONG, no one is right 100% of time, but investing, gambling, it's an ODDS GAME.....black or red?
D
Friday, July 13, 2012
SPX ACTION
Big up day, July 1374 now targeted and there's that chance we could see a 1400- 1450 print before all is said and one.
May write over weekend, and it's your call are you BUYING this rally? Are we embarking on another or continuing BULL MKT where you just sit tight and ride it out to new highs, or should you be peeling back your holdings and selling into strength?
ANY laggards here would be where I would first look.
D
May write over weekend, and it's your call are you BUYING this rally? Are we embarking on another or continuing BULL MKT where you just sit tight and ride it out to new highs, or should you be peeling back your holdings and selling into strength?
ANY laggards here would be where I would first look.
D
CONSUMER SENTIMENT FAILS TO RECOVER
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment cooled again in early July to its lowest level in seven months as Americans took a dim view of their finances and job prospects, a survey released on Friday showed.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment fell to 72.0 from 73.2 in June, frustrating economists' expectations for a slight gain to 73.4.It was the lowest level since December 2011.
Only 19 percent of consumers expected to be financially better off in the coming year, the lowest proportion recorded by the survey. Americans were also gloomy about their longer-term prospects with 39 percent anticipating their situation would be better in five years.
SPX TRADING RANGE
Price is just under the simple 50 day moving avg and has recently consolidated above the downtrend line. With the VIX not signalling fear and low summer volumes, the June lows and the July highs still stand. Stocks seem to only move from each new headline, on CHina, Euro, or JPM....or what the fed's next move may be. I don't doubt that stocks could move higher here, the lower range held again on recnt decline, but there isn't a strong conviction of buyers either seen by breadth or volume.
The next larger degree move IMHO will be down, only question in my ind is if a summer rally can unfold to new highs first
Thursday, July 12, 2012
PC SALES CONTINUE TO EBB
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Personal computer sales sagged during the spring as shifting technology trends, upcoming product releases and a shaky economy dampened demand for the machines currently on the market.
The second-quarter decline in the U.S. ranged from 6 percent to 11 percent compared with the same time last year, according to separate reports released Wednesday by Gartner Inc. and International Data Corp. Gartner came up with the lower of the two figures in the research firms' quarterly look at shipments of desktop and laptop computers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pc-sales-fall-6-pct-225244033.html
The second-quarter decline in the U.S. ranged from 6 percent to 11 percent compared with the same time last year, according to separate reports released Wednesday by Gartner Inc. and International Data Corp. Gartner came up with the lower of the two figures in the research firms' quarterly look at shipments of desktop and laptop computers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pc-sales-fall-6-pct-225244033.html
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
PROFIT WARNINGS
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell for a fourth day on Tuesday as more pessimism from companies compounded worries the sluggish world economy is taking a toll on profit growth.
A sales warning from engine maker Cummins Inc (CMI) came on top of earlier weak forecasts from chipmakers Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), causing the market to extend losses in afternoon trading.
Remember the asswipe who said "dangerous not to be in stocks" what a major PUTZ MONKEY, stocks "could" rise, but that is still a rather reckless statement to make.
That said, stocks continue their CHOP......keep in mind, betwwen early 2007-2008.....early warnings and a lack of sharp selloff led the lambs to slaughter.
HOW LONG can THE FED WILL SAVE US, MORE QE whatever keep having any effect at all.
D
A sales warning from engine maker Cummins Inc (CMI) came on top of earlier weak forecasts from chipmakers Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), causing the market to extend losses in afternoon trading.
Remember the asswipe who said "dangerous not to be in stocks" what a major PUTZ MONKEY, stocks "could" rise, but that is still a rather reckless statement to make.
That said, stocks continue their CHOP......keep in mind, betwwen early 2007-2008.....early warnings and a lack of sharp selloff led the lambs to slaughter.
HOW LONG can THE FED WILL SAVE US, MORE QE whatever keep having any effect at all.
D
PURE GENIUS
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-danger-now-not-being-074252794.html
"Not being invested in equities right now is one of the "most dangerous" things to do, according to Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Bull and Bear Partners, who believes U.S. companies will beat Wall Street's estimates for second-quarter earnings.
Corporate America is "richer than ever before" and consumers have more disposable cash because of recent lower oil prices, Bouroudjian told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that the extra cash will boost earnings and bode well for stocks in the next few years. "
Mark it down, he's on record......certainly stocks are not over valued? but certainly in bonds you get NO yield..it's fixed
D
"Not being invested in equities right now is one of the "most dangerous" things to do, according to Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Bull and Bear Partners, who believes U.S. companies will beat Wall Street's estimates for second-quarter earnings.
Corporate America is "richer than ever before" and consumers have more disposable cash because of recent lower oil prices, Bouroudjian told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that the extra cash will boost earnings and bode well for stocks in the next few years. "
Mark it down, he's on record......certainly stocks are not over valued? but certainly in bonds you get NO yield..it's fixed
D
Monday, July 09, 2012
"PERFECT STORM SCENARIO"
"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-perfect-storm-unfolding-now-104907590.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-perfect-storm-unfolding-now-104907590.html
Friday, July 06, 2012
WEAK JOBS REPORT
We lost over 8 million jobs, got back maybe 4 million. Majority of those seeking employment have been looking for 6 months or more. Many others are under employed, yet we are to believe gov't stats that say avg wages rose .3%?? Prior months weak jobs report was revised down about 10,000.
Are we creating 80,000 jobs? It takes near 200,000 to absorb any unemployed, not just new entrants into workforce pool. NO construction jobs were created, this report could get revised next report.
Blacks suffer more with over 14% unemployed, teens 25%.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
SPX READJUST CHART
With breakout from June high, this alternative target may be in play. SPX 1450 target before ultimate plunge. VIX near 16 and fallingD
Monday, July 02, 2012
CHINESE FACTORY OUTPUT DECLINES
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — "Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated at a faster clip in June than a month earlier, as new-order bookings and employment declined further, according to the final result of a survey by HSBC released Monday.
The final reading of HSBC’s China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June dropped to 48.2 from 48.4 in May, indicating that business conditions worsened at Chinese factories"
SO, let me get this straight, the US is going to be that one shining star?
D
The final reading of HSBC’s China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June dropped to 48.2 from 48.4 in May, indicating that business conditions worsened at Chinese factories"
SO, let me get this straight, the US is going to be that one shining star?
D
Sunday, July 01, 2012
LATEST FROM DR MARTIN ARMSTRONG "HOW DO EMPIRES DIE"
GOLD TO STRATOSPHERE
Dr Martin Armstrong:
http://www.inflateordie.com/files/How%20Do%20Empires%20Die%2006-17-2012.pdf
>>During economic crisis, money is hoarded. People curtail their spending to survive. Grover Cleveland addressed the Congress in a Special Session where he criticized his own party stating: <<
"At times like the present, when the evils of unsound finance threaten us, the speculator may anticipate a harvest gathered from the misfortune of others, the capitalist may protect himself by hoarding or may even find profit in the fluctuations of values; but the wage earner - the first to be injured by a depreciated currency - is practically defenseless. He relies for work upon the ventures of confident and contented capital. This failing him, his condition is without alleviation, for he can neither prey on the misfortunes of others nor hoard his labour."
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