Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Saturday, April 27, 2013
NO FEAR
After listening to Bloomberg and CNBC commentators and guests all week, a commom theme was running through their message....."DO NOT FEAR A CORRECTION" even if one was overdue. The reason given is a major correction is not possible if even less liekly with the Federal Reserve pumping a continuous $85 Billion into the market each and every month.
Even as margins compress and earnings growth has slowed to a crawl, even as it is obvious all this pumping and humping hs not materially gotten into the real economy, continue as you were...NO FEAR.
If you cannot print your way to prosperity, why do they persist? Because it is IN FOR A PENNY, IN FOR A POUND mentality, influence what you can and hope it trickles down into the general good.
What is actually happening, is these policies are enriching those who are already rich, those who have a large portion of their wealth in common stocks. It must be nice for those like Zuckerberg of FB fame, can peel off some shares and put some more $BILLION in his pile, and know he has
609 Million more shares to play with. And to think many complain when a pro athlete gets a $100M contract over 5 years.....if this isn't pure obscenity, I don't know what is.
Those INSIDERS with those MILLIONS of shares, and the company has declared dividends, they get to cash in and only pay 15% tax rate. Now many companies have decided to SHARE in their cash hordes with the investors......but the avg Joe may have 100's even 1,000's of shares of a given company....those dividends are not making a big difference in their economic lives.
The GULF between the rich and the poor middle class has expanded to a divide not seen in decades.
There has been only marginal recovery in Consumer Sentiment since the 2009 lows, this has been in many circles the weakest statistical recovery ever recorded....just NOT in stock prices.
SO the FED has targeted risky asset price appreciation (as has Euro CB'S and JCB), and has supported such with QE and now a whopping $85B a month. in asset purchases, even though stock manipulation is not in their mandate.
The TWITTER stock swoon, and minutes later recovery, is a microcosm of what is wrong and what COULD happen in the future facing investors.
There was NO TWITTER PANIC, the so called panic was just computer trading programs reacting to certain taglines they picked up in the news, the Twitter faked up release about the WH......this is what awaits people sitting idley buy and riding the BS rally for all its worth....when the MUSIC or manipulation, when the FED is forced to stop priniting money at an $85B a month clip....the false SUPPORT for the stock market removed will cause a horrendous crash. IMHO
D
Even as margins compress and earnings growth has slowed to a crawl, even as it is obvious all this pumping and humping hs not materially gotten into the real economy, continue as you were...NO FEAR.
If you cannot print your way to prosperity, why do they persist? Because it is IN FOR A PENNY, IN FOR A POUND mentality, influence what you can and hope it trickles down into the general good.
What is actually happening, is these policies are enriching those who are already rich, those who have a large portion of their wealth in common stocks. It must be nice for those like Zuckerberg of FB fame, can peel off some shares and put some more $BILLION in his pile, and know he has
609 Million more shares to play with. And to think many complain when a pro athlete gets a $100M contract over 5 years.....if this isn't pure obscenity, I don't know what is.
Those INSIDERS with those MILLIONS of shares, and the company has declared dividends, they get to cash in and only pay 15% tax rate. Now many companies have decided to SHARE in their cash hordes with the investors......but the avg Joe may have 100's even 1,000's of shares of a given company....those dividends are not making a big difference in their economic lives.
The GULF between the rich and the poor middle class has expanded to a divide not seen in decades.
There has been only marginal recovery in Consumer Sentiment since the 2009 lows, this has been in many circles the weakest statistical recovery ever recorded....just NOT in stock prices.
SO the FED has targeted risky asset price appreciation (as has Euro CB'S and JCB), and has supported such with QE and now a whopping $85B a month. in asset purchases, even though stock manipulation is not in their mandate.
The TWITTER stock swoon, and minutes later recovery, is a microcosm of what is wrong and what COULD happen in the future facing investors.
There was NO TWITTER PANIC, the so called panic was just computer trading programs reacting to certain taglines they picked up in the news, the Twitter faked up release about the WH......this is what awaits people sitting idley buy and riding the BS rally for all its worth....when the MUSIC or manipulation, when the FED is forced to stop priniting money at an $85B a month clip....the false SUPPORT for the stock market removed will cause a horrendous crash. IMHO
D
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Thursday, April 18, 2013
THE GREAT DIVIDE
http://www.safehaven.com/article/29472/quantifornication-and-an-american-spring
"The class divide
The S&P 500 - an index of 500 large US companies - has finally, after a four year rally, recouped all of its losses from the 2008 global financial crisis.
The S&P 500 became the last major US index to hit a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial average has already climbed past its previous high.
The average net worth of the 400 wealthiest Americans, classified as the super rich, rose to an all-time record of $4.2 billion, up more than 13 percent from a year ago. Collectively, this group's net worth, currently at $1.7 trillion, is the equivalent of one-eighth of the entire U.S. economy.
The US Federal Reserve is pumping $85 billion a month in virtually free money into the financial system, fueling the stock market boom.This is more money in a month than the $76.6 billion the federal government spent all of last year to provide SNAP benefits to 47.8 million impoverished Americans." The two sides of the US economic "recovery", wsws.org
Income inequality is the highest it's been since World War II."
What is the definition of stupid? Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different result?
The "WEALTH EFFECT" is like TRICKLE DOWN economics, but in this case, it isn't trickling down.
The Federal Reserve is working from an untried playbook, making this up as it goes. And they are in now $2.5 TRILLION of QE and adding $85B a month, but my friends it is going into the stock market and other RISKY assets, so that is the reason we are not seeing and feeling a greater effect int he real world.
I don't think they are bad people, but I do think they are closed minded and a few people are making decisions that effect 10's of millions....and they may be wrong!
The avg guy on street does not own stocks or owns not enough to FEEL JIGGY, to CASH OUT and SPEND, which spurs economy. Just look at recent CONSUMER SENTIMENT POLLS that show the worst recovery from recession since these records were held.
More people getting government assistance then before crisis. ALL I am saying folks is SOMETHING IS WRONG, we are misallocating resources AGAIN, which are benefiting a very few people at expense of the many.
Now with 0% return on savings, people have been FORCED into the stock market helping it reach new all time highs....if we reach another EVERYONE IS ON THE SHIP MOMENTS.....getting off will bemore like being thrown overboard...that I believe is coming.
D
"The class divide
The S&P 500 - an index of 500 large US companies - has finally, after a four year rally, recouped all of its losses from the 2008 global financial crisis.
The S&P 500 became the last major US index to hit a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial average has already climbed past its previous high.
The average net worth of the 400 wealthiest Americans, classified as the super rich, rose to an all-time record of $4.2 billion, up more than 13 percent from a year ago. Collectively, this group's net worth, currently at $1.7 trillion, is the equivalent of one-eighth of the entire U.S. economy.
- The top one percent of the American population controls 42 percent of all financial wealth in the country.
- The top 20 percent control roughly 90 percent of all stock ownership and financial wealth.
- The bottom 80 percent of Americans control less than 10 percent of all stocks owned.
- The bottom 80 percent of Americans hold roughly 5 to 8 percent of all financial wealth (non-housing related).
The US Federal Reserve is pumping $85 billion a month in virtually free money into the financial system, fueling the stock market boom.This is more money in a month than the $76.6 billion the federal government spent all of last year to provide SNAP benefits to 47.8 million impoverished Americans." The two sides of the US economic "recovery", wsws.org
Income inequality is the highest it's been since World War II."
What is the definition of stupid? Continuing to do the same thing expecting a different result?
The "WEALTH EFFECT" is like TRICKLE DOWN economics, but in this case, it isn't trickling down.
The Federal Reserve is working from an untried playbook, making this up as it goes. And they are in now $2.5 TRILLION of QE and adding $85B a month, but my friends it is going into the stock market and other RISKY assets, so that is the reason we are not seeing and feeling a greater effect int he real world.
I don't think they are bad people, but I do think they are closed minded and a few people are making decisions that effect 10's of millions....and they may be wrong!
The avg guy on street does not own stocks or owns not enough to FEEL JIGGY, to CASH OUT and SPEND, which spurs economy. Just look at recent CONSUMER SENTIMENT POLLS that show the worst recovery from recession since these records were held.
More people getting government assistance then before crisis. ALL I am saying folks is SOMETHING IS WRONG, we are misallocating resources AGAIN, which are benefiting a very few people at expense of the many.
Now with 0% return on savings, people have been FORCED into the stock market helping it reach new all time highs....if we reach another EVERYONE IS ON THE SHIP MOMENTS.....getting off will bemore like being thrown overboard...that I believe is coming.
D
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
THROW OVER MOVE?
It has that final look of coming out of the smaller wedge pattern, a terminal move, into the triple top, megaphone topping area.
There is no need to philosophize, conjecture, or otherwise, just to witness it.
D
NOT EVERYONE BULLISH
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/p-500-may-fall-more-40-fall-chris-120957460.html
This does NOT include investors of course!, they are ALL IN THE POOL
D
This does NOT include investors of course!, they are ALL IN THE POOL
D
Tuesday, April 09, 2013
"CHAMP TO CHUMP CYCLE"
"According to Hussman, corporate profits are near 11% of GDP and 70% above the historical norm. (Hussman agrees with Warren Buffett that one has to be wildly optimistic to believe corporate profits -- as a percent of GDP -- can hold above 6% for a sustained period.)"
http://tinyurl.com/d5qjv6j
http://tinyurl.com/d5qjv6j
Sunday, April 07, 2013
MUSICAL CHAIRS AND WHEN DOES THE MUSIC STOP?
http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/04/kuroda-leapfrogs-bernanke.html Doug Noland at Prudent Bear
"Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB and others have been working desperately to keep investors and speculators fully engaged in global debt, equities and risk markets. With near zero interest-rates and Trillions of monetization, “money” is being methodically devalued around the world. Federal Reserve devaluation is forcing savers out of “money” and into risk markets, apparently believing that asset inflation will spur wealth-creation, risk-taking and economic activity."
Holy print mania Batman! Friends, is printing money the answer to the EVIL that has befallen us??
And they don't seem like they have any intention of stopping.
You cannot hide under any rock, nor put your monies under you bed nor pillow case, as the CB'ers are determined to destroy our concept of fiat currencies. You have a problem, just print some more money (digitally) and it goes away?
In the history of this country, is there any example you can give me where you can PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY? INFLATE DEBT AWAY? Are we fighting DEFLATION?
What happens when people realize that money may not be the trusted store house of value it was supposed to be and not a toy to be played with by the Federal Reserve System built and entrusted with sound money as one of their main reasons for being? Why are they NOT protecting our reserve Currency? Now in competition with others, like Japan in a race to devalue their currency's value to help inflate debts away? Debts incurred partly because of their inept and wrongful policies on interest rates to begin with?
Devalue your currency and watch your risky assets rise by over 20% ? That's the Nikk. Japan one of the most indebted countries in history? 290% of GDP
Fridays "employment" (or lack of) report shows the folly of the current 5 years of FAILED FED POLICY of trying to force every saver from their hole into the stock market. SHAZAAM it worked to rally stocks to new highs......f the fact that the REAL economy didn't come with it.
What will happen when the music stops? doesn't it always? Markets go in cycles, always have, always will. 5 years for cyclical Bull mkt is long int he tooth.
WILL the policies enacted and forced upon us the last 5 years comeback to bite us in the ass? I think so. WHAT happens if the avg Joe finally up and leaves the asset markets for good, realizing it for the PONZI SCHEME IT IS?
It's great when unemployment rate can drop because so many en masse drop out of the labor pool? SEEING NEW LOWS not seen since the 70's in the LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE doesn't bring anyone else to pause or question current policies for their effectiveness.
Where is our country headed where near 0% rates encourage the government to continue its deficit policies and as national debt continues to grow by a $trillion or more each year, added to what we cannot already pay back....ever? This folly is made possible by historical low interest rates.....surely they will last forever.
"Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB and others have been working desperately to keep investors and speculators fully engaged in global debt, equities and risk markets. With near zero interest-rates and Trillions of monetization, “money” is being methodically devalued around the world. Federal Reserve devaluation is forcing savers out of “money” and into risk markets, apparently believing that asset inflation will spur wealth-creation, risk-taking and economic activity."
Holy print mania Batman! Friends, is printing money the answer to the EVIL that has befallen us??
And they don't seem like they have any intention of stopping.
You cannot hide under any rock, nor put your monies under you bed nor pillow case, as the CB'ers are determined to destroy our concept of fiat currencies. You have a problem, just print some more money (digitally) and it goes away?
In the history of this country, is there any example you can give me where you can PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY? INFLATE DEBT AWAY? Are we fighting DEFLATION?
What happens when people realize that money may not be the trusted store house of value it was supposed to be and not a toy to be played with by the Federal Reserve System built and entrusted with sound money as one of their main reasons for being? Why are they NOT protecting our reserve Currency? Now in competition with others, like Japan in a race to devalue their currency's value to help inflate debts away? Debts incurred partly because of their inept and wrongful policies on interest rates to begin with?
Devalue your currency and watch your risky assets rise by over 20% ? That's the Nikk. Japan one of the most indebted countries in history? 290% of GDP
Fridays "employment" (or lack of) report shows the folly of the current 5 years of FAILED FED POLICY of trying to force every saver from their hole into the stock market. SHAZAAM it worked to rally stocks to new highs......f the fact that the REAL economy didn't come with it.
What will happen when the music stops? doesn't it always? Markets go in cycles, always have, always will. 5 years for cyclical Bull mkt is long int he tooth.
WILL the policies enacted and forced upon us the last 5 years comeback to bite us in the ass? I think so. WHAT happens if the avg Joe finally up and leaves the asset markets for good, realizing it for the PONZI SCHEME IT IS?
It's great when unemployment rate can drop because so many en masse drop out of the labor pool? SEEING NEW LOWS not seen since the 70's in the LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE doesn't bring anyone else to pause or question current policies for their effectiveness.
Where is our country headed where near 0% rates encourage the government to continue its deficit policies and as national debt continues to grow by a $trillion or more each year, added to what we cannot already pay back....ever? This folly is made possible by historical low interest rates.....surely they will last forever.
Friday, April 05, 2013
GETTING CLOSER TO FED'S UNEMPLOYMENT TARGET
Unemployment today DROPPED another.1% to 7.6%. But unfortunately the rate did not drop because of good news and economic vitality, it dropped because a huge number of job seekers just DROPPED OUT of the job seeking market. The labor participation rate dropped to its lowest reading since the 1970'S!
SO we have had a slew of people accepting part time jobs who want full time jobs, now we have a slew of part timers and those who cannot find any job all dropping out.
Waged are stagnant, energy, food and some other costs continue to rise in an atmosphere which I will label DEFLATIONARY.
5 years of failed Government and Central Bank inflationary, money printing policies and after 5 years we have such a flacid economy?
These historic low interest rates do not stimulate INVESTMENT, they DO stimulate risk taking and help support speculation in risky asset classes at the expense of SOUND MONETARY POLICY.
I have expounded for years how I do not like the FED policy of 0% interest rates and how it is helping to misallocate funds to risky investments and away from sound economic growth strategies.
I have complained for years how these same policies unfairly target the Conservative group of investors and have taken away any chance of a SAFE RETURN.
With little else to choose, it causes the vast majority to go in the same direction, crowd the boat so to speak.
This is the preverbial game of MUSICAL CHAIRS, and when the music stops, it isn't going to matter where interest rates are. The HERD has followed the path of least resistance, and when this trend reverses and it always does, when FEAR that 4 letter word creeps back into the market, you are going to witness a MAJOR HAIRCUT to stock prices, IMHO
D
SO we have had a slew of people accepting part time jobs who want full time jobs, now we have a slew of part timers and those who cannot find any job all dropping out.
Waged are stagnant, energy, food and some other costs continue to rise in an atmosphere which I will label DEFLATIONARY.
5 years of failed Government and Central Bank inflationary, money printing policies and after 5 years we have such a flacid economy?
These historic low interest rates do not stimulate INVESTMENT, they DO stimulate risk taking and help support speculation in risky asset classes at the expense of SOUND MONETARY POLICY.
I have expounded for years how I do not like the FED policy of 0% interest rates and how it is helping to misallocate funds to risky investments and away from sound economic growth strategies.
I have complained for years how these same policies unfairly target the Conservative group of investors and have taken away any chance of a SAFE RETURN.
With little else to choose, it causes the vast majority to go in the same direction, crowd the boat so to speak.
This is the preverbial game of MUSICAL CHAIRS, and when the music stops, it isn't going to matter where interest rates are. The HERD has followed the path of least resistance, and when this trend reverses and it always does, when FEAR that 4 letter word creeps back into the market, you are going to witness a MAJOR HAIRCUT to stock prices, IMHO
D
Thursday, April 04, 2013
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
CAW CAW
Black swans? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-black-swans-hovering-over-200224264.html
Caw for crows.......
We are hitting this turbulence at the triple top and expanding wedge area I have been posting.....just saying.
D
Caw for crows.......
We are hitting this turbulence at the triple top and expanding wedge area I have been posting.....just saying.
D
Monday, April 01, 2013
CONTRASTS ABOUND
"The results of a closely watched business confidence survey in Japan showed that despite a surge in stock prices and a steep fall in the yen, Japanese manufacturers are still largely in a pessimistic mood.
The Tankan survey, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) key economic indicator, came in at minus 8 for the January to March quarter instead of the anticipated minus 7 level. Though the reading was the best in three quarters it was still in negative territory showing that there are more pessimists than optimists among the manufacturers surveyed.
This contrasts with a 34 percent rally in the Nikkei 225 since November when Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, started pushing for aggressive monetary policy and economic stimulus to end deflation and spur growth. "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-japans-manufacturers-bearish-082814512.html
The Tankan survey, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) key economic indicator, came in at minus 8 for the January to March quarter instead of the anticipated minus 7 level. Though the reading was the best in three quarters it was still in negative territory showing that there are more pessimists than optimists among the manufacturers surveyed.
This contrasts with a 34 percent rally in the Nikkei 225 since November when Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, started pushing for aggressive monetary policy and economic stimulus to end deflation and spur growth. "
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-japans-manufacturers-bearish-082814512.html
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