One year later...
Rasputin - Sun, Mar 22, 2009 - 08:54 AM *Thanks to Rasputin from WALLSTREETBEAR.COM
In the one year since the collapse of Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve has created the following "Alphabet Soup" programs to fight this epic debt and derivatives collapse:
1. Maiden Lane, LLC (I and II) For Bear Stearns bailout.
2. Term Auction Facility (TAF)
3. Central Bank Liquidity Swaps (CBLS)
4. Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF)
5. Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF)
6. Term Securities Lending Options Program (TOP)
7. Asset-Backed Commercial Paper MMF Liquidity Facility (AMLF)
8. Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF)
9. Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF)
10. Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)
11. Outright ownership stake in AIG
12. Numerous other "loans" to JPM, Citi and BofA after the Lehman Bros. collapse
13. Outright monetization of Fannie/Freddie MBS and debt
14. Outright monetization of U.S. Treasuries
15. Expansion of TALF to support the soon-to-be-announced Treasury/FDIC/Fed program to offload dead, toxic "assets" from banks.
Total amount flung or committed to be flung by the Federal Reserve:
Approximately ELEVEN TRILLION FIATSCOS!
In addition to the massive, unprecedented, insane amount of fiatsco-flinging by the Fed outlined above, the U.S. government has also been busy creating the following programs:
1. The original stimulus bill of 150 billion fiatscos which handed out checks directly to the sheeple
2. The "Bazooka Bill" of 800 billion fiatscos to bailout Fannie, Freddie and the FHLBs
3. The Troubled Asset Relief Program of 750 billion fiatscos
4. The second stimulus bill of 750 billion fiatscos
Total amount of flung or committed to be flung by Congress:
TWO-POINT-THREE TRILLION FIATSCOS!
...which brings the grand total of all fiatscos flung or promised to:
THIRTEEN-POINT-THREE TRILLION FIATSCOS!!!
So, after an entire YEAR of the Fed and Congress flinging fiat at the debt and derivatives collapse AND the total amount now OVER thirteen trillion fiatscos, here we sit.
Now, here are my questions:
1. WHY HASN'T THE PROBLEM BEEN SOLVED?
2. Why aren't the banks now solvent?
3. Why isn't lending back to 2005-2006 bubble levels?
4. Why have housing prices collapsed by thirty-percent?
5. Why are stock markets down fifty percent?
6. Why are so many businesses laying off workers and filing for bankruptcy?
And, I must admit that this massive, epic, unprecedented debt and derivatives collapse has exceeded even my gloomiest forecast--made in August, 2007--of three trillion fiatscos of debt destruction and ten trillion in derivatives decimation.
Furthermore, please keep in mind that I am ONLY counting the U.S. collapse, not the nearly-identical amount that Europe's financial systems have also melted down.
So, in actuality we are looking at:
OVER TWENTY TRILLION FIATSCOS IN DEBT AND DERIVATIVES COLLAPSE!
...worldwide. So far.
ALso, as I pointed out in a post yesterday, the central banks and governments haven't shown any sign that they will ever give up fighting this unprecedented worldwide collapse either. The U.S. Fed and federal government are in fact INCREASING their responses as opposed to backing off and allowing the collapse to run its course to the natural conclusion ("Great Disintegration I").
Moving forward to addressing the soon-to-be-announced Turbo Tax Timmy program to offload the dead, toxic "assets" STILL on the books of the banking system (which, as I pointed out above, SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN DEALT WITH VIA ALL THESE PROGRAMS AND BAILOUTS), I can state with utmost certainty that this is nothing more than another attempt to offload on the taxpayer additional trillions of fiatscos of losses.
And you cant bet that we will NEVER be told exactly of what these "assets" consist, although I already know:
1. Completely worthless mortgages
2. Equally as worthless auto loans and leases
3. Just as worthless student loans
4. Other dead debt
5. All the myriad derivatives of the above (MBS/ABS, CDOs/Squareds/Cubeds/CDS) that were pyramided on top of the previously-listed dead debt
...all of which must total MORE than the thriteen trillion fiatscos flung or promised so far, or the financial system would have ALREADY been restored to order, right?
Right?
(Conclusion): We are so scroomed that it is becoming impossible to pretend otherwise anymore. Also, even IF the governments and central banks could possibly absorb all these losses, they will NEVER be able to either unwind all the dead debt and derivatives or, more importantly, re-incite the "Animal Spirits" required in the minds of the sheeple to bring the borrowing markets back to the:
FOUR TRILLION FIATSCOS PER YEAR, EVERY YEAR, YEAR-AFTER-YEAR
...amount required in the U.S. alone to keep the Ponzi Economy from continuing to implode, UNLESS TPTB decide to really pull the "Weimar/Zimbabwe Switch" and start maling one-hundred thousand fiatsco checks directly to the masses.
So, here are our stark choices:
1. Either "Great Disintegration I" continues despite all the efforts by TPTB (which it so far has)
...or:
2. TPTB manage to pull off "Weimar/Zimbabwe" for a few more years before we revert to #1 above
I wish I could come up with some other, more benign, scenario. But I can't.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Sunday, March 22, 2009
"LET IT DIE"
http://www.arthurmag.com/2009/03/16/let-it-die-rushkoff-on-the-economy/ Thanks to MAtty for forwarding this to me . This is for my cyanide party.....
Our Social and Economic landscape is being changed and IMHO the IN CROWD is more in.....
Duratek
Our Social and Economic landscape is being changed and IMHO the IN CROWD is more in.....
Duratek
Saturday, March 21, 2009
SAT MORNING POST "THE BIG TAKEOVER"
http://www.rollingstone.com:80/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/1
MUST READ OR BE CLUELESS
<>
Thanks to friend Pieter V. L. for above and heads up on IMPORTANT ARTICLE!
Last page of an 8 page article http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/sto....In essence, Paulson and his cronies turned the federal government into one gigantic, half-opaque holding company, one whose balance sheet includes the world's most appallingly large and risky hedge fund, a controlling stake in a dying insurance giant, huge investments in a group of teetering megabanks, and shares here and there in various auto-finance companies, student loans, and other failing businesses. Like AIG, this new federal holding company is a firm that has no mechanism for auditing itself and is run by leaders who have very little grasp of the daily operations of its disparate subsidiary operations.
In other words, it's AIG's rip-roaringly shitty business model writ almost inconceivably massive — to echo Geithner, a huge, complex global company attached to a very complicated investment bank/hedge fund that's been allowed to build up without adult supervision. How much of what kinds of crap is actually on our balance sheet, and what did we pay for it? When exactly will the rent come due, when will the money run out? Does anyone know what the hell is going on? And on the linear spectrum of capitalism to socialism, where exactly are we now? Is there a dictionary word that even describes what we are now? It would be funny, if it weren't such a nightmare.
MUST READ OR BE CLUELESS
<
Thanks to friend Pieter V. L. for above and heads up on IMPORTANT ARTICLE!
Last page of an 8 page article http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/sto....In essence, Paulson and his cronies turned the federal government into one gigantic, half-opaque holding company, one whose balance sheet includes the world's most appallingly large and risky hedge fund, a controlling stake in a dying insurance giant, huge investments in a group of teetering megabanks, and shares here and there in various auto-finance companies, student loans, and other failing businesses. Like AIG, this new federal holding company is a firm that has no mechanism for auditing itself and is run by leaders who have very little grasp of the daily operations of its disparate subsidiary operations.
In other words, it's AIG's rip-roaringly shitty business model writ almost inconceivably massive — to echo Geithner, a huge, complex global company attached to a very complicated investment bank/hedge fund that's been allowed to build up without adult supervision. How much of what kinds of crap is actually on our balance sheet, and what did we pay for it? When exactly will the rent come due, when will the money run out? Does anyone know what the hell is going on? And on the linear spectrum of capitalism to socialism, where exactly are we now? Is there a dictionary word that even describes what we are now? It would be funny, if it weren't such a nightmare.
Friday, March 20, 2009
IS THAT LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL A TRAIN?
From The Business Insider, March 20, 2009:
The frantic passage of the Populist Rage Tax was a new low in the US government's response to this crisis. It shows just how likely we are to doom ourselves to a decade or more of misery--by choking our markets, closing our borders, turning our banks into tools of social policy, and wrecking what's left of our economy
The frantic passage of the Populist Rage Tax was a new low in the US government's response to this crisis. It shows just how likely we are to doom ourselves to a decade or more of misery--by choking our markets, closing our borders, turning our banks into tools of social policy, and wrecking what's left of our economy
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE SHRINKS
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf more money thrown at problem so where is it?
what is this?
THE REVISED MONETARY
BASE
The measure of the monetary base that
was published by the Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis through September 1996
included most, but not all, deposits at
Federal Reserve Banks held by domestic
depository institutions. The new measure,
presented in this article and published by
the Bank since October 1996, includes all
such deposits. The revision increases the
level of the base by an amount that varies
from zero in 1980 up to about $6 billion in
1994 and 1996.
Sources and uses of high-powered
money for the U.S. economy in December
1995 are shown in Table 1.1 Most of the
high-powered money supplied by the Federal
Reserve and the Treasury is represented
by currency in circulation and the
deposits of domestic financial institutions
at Federal Reserve Banks; together, these
constitute the monetary base.
what is this?
THE REVISED MONETARY
BASE
The measure of the monetary base that
was published by the Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis through September 1996
included most, but not all, deposits at
Federal Reserve Banks held by domestic
depository institutions. The new measure,
presented in this article and published by
the Bank since October 1996, includes all
such deposits. The revision increases the
level of the base by an amount that varies
from zero in 1980 up to about $6 billion in
1994 and 1996.
Sources and uses of high-powered
money for the U.S. economy in December
1995 are shown in Table 1.1 Most of the
high-powered money supplied by the Federal
Reserve and the Treasury is represented
by currency in circulation and the
deposits of domestic financial institutions
at Federal Reserve Banks; together, these
constitute the monetary base.
THE GREAT HOAX
NO......this move is the GREAT HOAX
How could a plan crafted by total idiots, bills (stim etc) passed by bigger idiots who dont even read them.....plan crafted by those who got us HERE....a PRes who thinks getting on Letterman was good idea, a GAY ELMER FUDD leading the DEM charge, unconstitutional tax bill to cover up THEIR SHORTCOMINGS....outrage should be directed to Congress and Federal Reserve!
THIS GAMBIT IS DOOMED TO FAIL..............HOW CAN HOMES BE BOUGHT in enough volume when 650K a month are losing their jobs? CONSUMERS ARE DOWN THEIR FOXHOLE AND NOT EASILY COMING OUT.
LAST GREAT BUBBLE IS NOW FORMING IN US COMMODITIES forced out by weakening US$ and flight to something REAL......DEMAND TO DO SOMETHING WITH OIL, STEEL ETC IS NOT THERE.
The 40 yr generational cycle (1929, 1969) is PEAKING NOW. (Harry Dent)
I still believe the greatest bubbles in history and excesses and total credit mkt debt FAR excededing the Great Depression ends with similar stock retrace and consequences....with potential 80% retrace or more from the top....
If Bank profits are SHOWN to BEAT expectations and it is HYPED next report as WORST IS OVER for financials...sure rally could be propped......it would be as thin as paper and offer another great opp to get short as hell IMHO (or sell if already hadnt at higher prices IMHO)
STIM THAT DOESNT STIM?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Big money often spurs big battles. A month after President Obama signed the $787 billion economic stimulus law, governors and state lawmakers are already fighting with Washington and each other about putting the money to use.
At least two governors are asking the White House for special consideration in applying the funds meant to shore up state budgets.
And several governors, saying they don't want to expand eligibility, have turned down millions of dollars of unemployment benefits. This, in turn, has pitted some against their own state legislatures and prompted some lawmakers to threaten to take matters into their own hands.
RON PAUL KNOWS http://www.house.gov/paul/ "can't re-inflate the bubble" youtube video
I am NOT sure how far current rally can take us, maybe even FARTHER than I think given our situation, Bear Markets LURE IN as many as possible to take their money. UNPRESCEDENTED MONEY has been thrown at this problem, maybe it has to go somewhere, the gambit is FED makes your today money worth LES AND LESS by trying to DEVALUE IT....FORCE RATES DOWN to unheard of levels which will cause many on sideline to incur addt'l debt....and move housing inventory.....but it may also have unintended consequences.
Duratek
How could a plan crafted by total idiots, bills (stim etc) passed by bigger idiots who dont even read them.....plan crafted by those who got us HERE....a PRes who thinks getting on Letterman was good idea, a GAY ELMER FUDD leading the DEM charge, unconstitutional tax bill to cover up THEIR SHORTCOMINGS....outrage should be directed to Congress and Federal Reserve!
THIS GAMBIT IS DOOMED TO FAIL..............HOW CAN HOMES BE BOUGHT in enough volume when 650K a month are losing their jobs? CONSUMERS ARE DOWN THEIR FOXHOLE AND NOT EASILY COMING OUT.
LAST GREAT BUBBLE IS NOW FORMING IN US COMMODITIES forced out by weakening US$ and flight to something REAL......DEMAND TO DO SOMETHING WITH OIL, STEEL ETC IS NOT THERE.
The 40 yr generational cycle (1929, 1969) is PEAKING NOW. (Harry Dent)
I still believe the greatest bubbles in history and excesses and total credit mkt debt FAR excededing the Great Depression ends with similar stock retrace and consequences....with potential 80% retrace or more from the top....
If Bank profits are SHOWN to BEAT expectations and it is HYPED next report as WORST IS OVER for financials...sure rally could be propped......it would be as thin as paper and offer another great opp to get short as hell IMHO (or sell if already hadnt at higher prices IMHO)
STIM THAT DOESNT STIM?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Big money often spurs big battles. A month after President Obama signed the $787 billion economic stimulus law, governors and state lawmakers are already fighting with Washington and each other about putting the money to use.
At least two governors are asking the White House for special consideration in applying the funds meant to shore up state budgets.
And several governors, saying they don't want to expand eligibility, have turned down millions of dollars of unemployment benefits. This, in turn, has pitted some against their own state legislatures and prompted some lawmakers to threaten to take matters into their own hands.
RON PAUL KNOWS http://www.house.gov/paul/ "can't re-inflate the bubble" youtube video
I am NOT sure how far current rally can take us, maybe even FARTHER than I think given our situation, Bear Markets LURE IN as many as possible to take their money. UNPRESCEDENTED MONEY has been thrown at this problem, maybe it has to go somewhere, the gambit is FED makes your today money worth LES AND LESS by trying to DEVALUE IT....FORCE RATES DOWN to unheard of levels which will cause many on sideline to incur addt'l debt....and move housing inventory.....but it may also have unintended consequences.
Duratek
Thursday, March 19, 2009
"BERNAKE INSERTS GUN IN MOUTH"by KArl Denninger
It’s GRAB YOUR ANKLES TIME! And I’ve been right on the economic issues Ron…I hope to goodness Denninger is wrong.The American people have NO CLUE how serious our situation is and how this is a stupid, last gasp gambit to FORCE people to take on risk in assets… HOW WELL did attempts at REFLATION work last time? Yeah, we got an even bigger bubble and worse burst….
http://market-ticker.org/authors/2-Karl-Denninger
Duratek g-d help us all!
http://market-ticker.org/authors/2-Karl-Denninger
Duratek g-d help us all!
LOOK BACK AT 2002 BEAR
*click to enlarge
BREAK BACK OF US $$ and REFALTE what has DEFLATED? THAT IS WHAT FED MOVE IS ALL ABOUT.......that's all they got.....US $ falls...things go up?
D
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
FED MEETING
ON 60 Minutes Sunday fing liar Bernanke said otherwise!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve surprised financial markets and committed to buy $300 billion in longer-term Treasurys to help the economy recover. The Fed was more pessimistic about the outlook, in a statement released after its two-day meeting. Officials removed language saying they expected the economy to recover later this year. The Fed tweaked its other credit-easing programs by committing to buy more mortgage-backed securities and agency debt and include more asset-backed securities under a new credit facility starting this week. The Fed repeated that deflation was a risk to the economy. The vote on the statement was unanimous
*In the end it doesn't matter what we think, or what SHOULD be, the market IS rallying and the 800 SPX threshold may be taken out.
Price is coming right to my downtrend line, so should I go long in some manner I will be able to set up a reasonable stop loss.
Admitting FED not seeing or KNOWING the end to this crisis, by removing that language....doesn't give me a warm fuzzy
D
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve surprised financial markets and committed to buy $300 billion in longer-term Treasurys to help the economy recover. The Fed was more pessimistic about the outlook, in a statement released after its two-day meeting. Officials removed language saying they expected the economy to recover later this year. The Fed tweaked its other credit-easing programs by committing to buy more mortgage-backed securities and agency debt and include more asset-backed securities under a new credit facility starting this week. The Fed repeated that deflation was a risk to the economy. The vote on the statement was unanimous
*In the end it doesn't matter what we think, or what SHOULD be, the market IS rallying and the 800 SPX threshold may be taken out.
Price is coming right to my downtrend line, so should I go long in some manner I will be able to set up a reasonable stop loss.
Admitting FED not seeing or KNOWING the end to this crisis, by removing that language....doesn't give me a warm fuzzy
D
THURSDAY COULD BE PIVOTAL DAY FOR MARKET
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- General Electric stock has fallen 72% over the past year amid concerns about rising losses at its finance arm, GE Capital. In an attempt to reassure investors, the company will deliver a detailed, five-hour presentation on GE Capital to investors in New York this Thursday.
In an interview on CNBC that aired March 5, GE's chief financial officer Keith Sherin acknowledged that GE (GE, Fortune 500) has a credibility problem with investors. "We've got to earn that trust back." he said.
"We recognize that we've made statements about both not raising equity and about not cutting the dividend and we've had to backtrack on those," Sherin said. He blamed these reversals not on on the uncertain economy.
He said that the best way to regain trust is to be as transparent as possible, and that Thursday's presentation about GE Capital should help provide that clarity.
*GE is main DOW component, if mkt reacts well to Thursday meeting, what they say, COULD provide HUGE upside to market.
Bulls have been regaining some control,
IMPORTANT ARTICLE ON GE
http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/10/28/can-the-fed-bring-good-things-to-light/
D
In an interview on CNBC that aired March 5, GE's chief financial officer Keith Sherin acknowledged that GE (GE, Fortune 500) has a credibility problem with investors. "We've got to earn that trust back." he said.
"We recognize that we've made statements about both not raising equity and about not cutting the dividend and we've had to backtrack on those," Sherin said. He blamed these reversals not on on the uncertain economy.
He said that the best way to regain trust is to be as transparent as possible, and that Thursday's presentation about GE Capital should help provide that clarity.
*GE is main DOW component, if mkt reacts well to Thursday meeting, what they say, COULD provide HUGE upside to market.
Bulls have been regaining some control,
IMPORTANT ARTICLE ON GE
http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/10/28/can-the-fed-bring-good-things-to-light/
D
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
OUTRAGIOUS " STEALTH BAILOUT"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1063716591&play=1
Great post SSK
Into RESISTANCE ZONE ON SPX......FED bullishness...break of SPX 800 chink from bear armour
D
Great post SSK
Into RESISTANCE ZONE ON SPX......FED bullishness...break of SPX 800 chink from bear armour
D
JUMP IN HOUSING STARTS? OR WE WON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN?
Housing Starts Jump 22.2%
Last Update: 17-Mar-09 08:52 ET briefing.com
The February Housing Starts report produced better-than-expected news, with starts increasing 22.2% from January to an annualized rate of 583,000 units. That compares to the consensus estimate of 450,000, but is still 47.3% below the year-ago level. Permits, meanwhile, increased 3.0% to an annualized rate of 547,000 (consensus 500,000), which is still 44.2% below the year-ago level.
The primary swing factor for starts was the increase in multi-unit structures. Specifically, starts on dwellings with five units or more surged to 212,000 from 118,000 in the prior month. Single-family starts, on the other hand, rose just 1.1% to 357,000 units.
Last Update: 17-Mar-09 08:52 ET briefing.com
The February Housing Starts report produced better-than-expected news, with starts increasing 22.2% from January to an annualized rate of 583,000 units. That compares to the consensus estimate of 450,000, but is still 47.3% below the year-ago level. Permits, meanwhile, increased 3.0% to an annualized rate of 547,000 (consensus 500,000), which is still 44.2% below the year-ago level.
The primary swing factor for starts was the increase in multi-unit structures. Specifically, starts on dwellings with five units or more surged to 212,000 from 118,000 in the prior month. Single-family starts, on the other hand, rose just 1.1% to 357,000 units.
PROBLEMS WITH ECONOMY, PROBLEMS WITH THE FIX
First news
NEW YORK – The percentage of auto loans past due 60 days or more rose 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with the prior-year period, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. And the numbers point to auto delinquencies shooting to their highest point in a decade by the end of the year.
The rate rose to 0.86 percent for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 0.79 percent in the 2007 fourth quarter.
Auto-loan delinquencies tend to be cyclical, with the fourth quarter typically showing the fewest problematic payments. But the recession appears to be changing those patterns.
Folks, the porblems are going DEEPER than any Recession I can remember, than most of us can remember.
GOV has added $199B this year and $399B next year (election yr !) to help revive economy, when $TRILLIONS have been destroyed this is like pissing in the wind.....or severing an arm and sticking a bandaide on where it used to be.
Forcing banks to loan? HELOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....banks lent to unfit borrowers and aided our demise, some forced by democrats wanting fairness in lending to minorities most of whom are now defaulting.
Banks are trying to TOUGHEN lending standards so money going OUT will COME BACK, nothing is going to change that. Secondary market for these loans (most maybe good now?) has been desestroyed.....it will take TIME to regain trust.
Consumers HAVE CUT BACK SPENDING, BUSINESSES HAVE CUT BACK SPENDING.
There has been NO LETUP in the data showing us a BOTTOM in employment or housing valuations, or delinquencies...will changing way Banks have to value these TOXIC ASSETS change anything? WILL FORCING SHORTS to wait for UPTICK change anything?
What anything is worth is what anyone WILL pay you for it at that moment in time, not tomorrow, not yesterday.
Putting (tax cut stim?) $7 a frickin week in your paycheck going to turn this around?
ADDING 8,500 GOV earmarks to spending bill going help? show Gov restraint?
WHY is PRES OBAMA going on David Letterman show? WTF is that?
Bernanke on 60 minutes must see TV? mkt sold off Monday but surely didnt RALLY hearing the bald guy say MAYBE end of 2009 we get recovery....IM so excited!
$8,000 check in your hand 1st time home buyer....thing is many get the check didnt know about it when they bought.....one in townhouse development, bought one of 3 unsold homes, got $70K hair cut too...but didnt that just lower everyone elses mkt value?
IMHO TOO MANY (LOTS OF EX BEARS TOO) CALLING THE BOTTOM......
EMployment picture #1 area I need to see bottom out and begin to heal and improve....more people working, more people spending, saving, putting into IRA's instead of asking to pull money OUT (hardship which forces Mutual Fund selling to raise cash), more people confident to BUY homes. buy furniture and appliances, do landscaping, buy new car....there's your trickle up or down.
NEW WAVE OF LAYOFFS COMING if current rate of business and consumer spending isnt lifted and soon.
We don't make much anymore, we are Service economy, we have 75% consumer led economy........and they ain't doin' so good.... SO NO....I do not believe we have seen bottom in economy nor in the stock market, do as you must and see fit.....but this is one bear that doesn't like what he sees rally or not. And has NO confidence in those supposed to help heal it.
The AIG situation is just as disgusting as Bernie Madoff....how can anyone have confidence in Gov when they know what has or hasnt been done with $100's of $Billions of tax dollars?
Duratek
NEW YORK – The percentage of auto loans past due 60 days or more rose 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with the prior-year period, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. And the numbers point to auto delinquencies shooting to their highest point in a decade by the end of the year.
The rate rose to 0.86 percent for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 0.79 percent in the 2007 fourth quarter.
Auto-loan delinquencies tend to be cyclical, with the fourth quarter typically showing the fewest problematic payments. But the recession appears to be changing those patterns.
Folks, the porblems are going DEEPER than any Recession I can remember, than most of us can remember.
GOV has added $199B this year and $399B next year (election yr !) to help revive economy, when $TRILLIONS have been destroyed this is like pissing in the wind.....or severing an arm and sticking a bandaide on where it used to be.
Forcing banks to loan? HELOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....banks lent to unfit borrowers and aided our demise, some forced by democrats wanting fairness in lending to minorities most of whom are now defaulting.
Banks are trying to TOUGHEN lending standards so money going OUT will COME BACK, nothing is going to change that. Secondary market for these loans (most maybe good now?) has been desestroyed.....it will take TIME to regain trust.
Consumers HAVE CUT BACK SPENDING, BUSINESSES HAVE CUT BACK SPENDING.
There has been NO LETUP in the data showing us a BOTTOM in employment or housing valuations, or delinquencies...will changing way Banks have to value these TOXIC ASSETS change anything? WILL FORCING SHORTS to wait for UPTICK change anything?
What anything is worth is what anyone WILL pay you for it at that moment in time, not tomorrow, not yesterday.
Putting (tax cut stim?) $7 a frickin week in your paycheck going to turn this around?
ADDING 8,500 GOV earmarks to spending bill going help? show Gov restraint?
WHY is PRES OBAMA going on David Letterman show? WTF is that?
Bernanke on 60 minutes must see TV? mkt sold off Monday but surely didnt RALLY hearing the bald guy say MAYBE end of 2009 we get recovery....IM so excited!
$8,000 check in your hand 1st time home buyer....thing is many get the check didnt know about it when they bought.....one in townhouse development, bought one of 3 unsold homes, got $70K hair cut too...but didnt that just lower everyone elses mkt value?
IMHO TOO MANY (LOTS OF EX BEARS TOO) CALLING THE BOTTOM......
EMployment picture #1 area I need to see bottom out and begin to heal and improve....more people working, more people spending, saving, putting into IRA's instead of asking to pull money OUT (hardship which forces Mutual Fund selling to raise cash), more people confident to BUY homes. buy furniture and appliances, do landscaping, buy new car....there's your trickle up or down.
NEW WAVE OF LAYOFFS COMING if current rate of business and consumer spending isnt lifted and soon.
We don't make much anymore, we are Service economy, we have 75% consumer led economy........and they ain't doin' so good.... SO NO....I do not believe we have seen bottom in economy nor in the stock market, do as you must and see fit.....but this is one bear that doesn't like what he sees rally or not. And has NO confidence in those supposed to help heal it.
The AIG situation is just as disgusting as Bernie Madoff....how can anyone have confidence in Gov when they know what has or hasnt been done with $100's of $Billions of tax dollars?
Duratek
Monday, March 16, 2009
WAS BREACH OF 2002 LOWS IMPORTANT?
We do haver MACD divergence at the current lows. IMPORTANT LONG TERM SUPPORT HAD BEEN BROKEN, and now we rush back to scene of crime. I have drawn 2 possible areas of overhead R.
D
Saturday, March 14, 2009
MONTHLY SPX CHART IN SEARCH OF CLUES
*click to enlarge.
SEE notes....notice it took monthly MOMO's 2 years in most case of extreme oversold readings to put LAST bottom in. Nothing here says LOWS are in (IMHO)....cannot judge ST rally here BUT last bear and this one could not, has not escaped PULL of the 5 EMA
Duratek I am doing my best to help you, keep you safe. NO guarantees of anything happening as I see them. This IMHO is one of those Bear mkts being TOO early can kill you....nimble traders may already be riding current rally.....is that you? If you aren't a trader now is not a good time to start.
CARL SWENLIN'S LATEST
WHat he said on 3/06
BREAKDOWN
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090306_break.html
AND NOW
BOUNCE
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090313_bounce.html
It PAYS to understand some about technical analysis, when NEWS and fundamentals seem not to make sense, or confuse, chart action may help to clear things up.
D
BREAKDOWN
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090306_break.html
AND NOW
BOUNCE
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090313_bounce.html
It PAYS to understand some about technical analysis, when NEWS and fundamentals seem not to make sense, or confuse, chart action may help to clear things up.
D
WILL RALLY CONTINUE?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Will-the-stock-market-rally-apf-14642023.html
Both sides of argument presented because we REALLY don't know, some I know have DIPPED TOE long, certainly going all in predicting a bottom is not sound behaviour.
Duratek
Both sides of argument presented because we REALLY don't know, some I know have DIPPED TOE long, certainly going all in predicting a bottom is not sound behaviour.
Duratek
CREDIT BUBBLE
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10202 well written Doug Noland
Remarkably, Domestic Financial Sector Debt Growth accelerated from Q3’s 6.8% pace to a 7.2% rate of expansion. On a Seasonally-Adjusted and Annualized Rate (SAAR) basis, Total Financial Sector borrowings jumped to $1.222 TN during the quarter. This was in the face of the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market contracting SAAR $616bn. This critical contraction in private sector Credit was, however, largely offset by combined GSE debt and MBS growth of SAAR $569bn. Bank Commercial Loans expanded SAAR $858bn, while Open Market Paper increased SAAR $341bn.
For all of 2008, Treasury securities outstanding increased an unprecedented $1.239 TN, or 24.3%. Meanwhile, Agency securities (GSE debt and MBS) jumped $716bn, or 9.6%. Combined federal and quasi-federal securities outstanding ballooned an incredible $1.955 Trillion in just one year. For comparison, Treasury and the Agencies combined to increase debt securities $1.146 TN during 2007, $514bn in 2006 and $390bn in 2005. This ramp up of government Credit growth is outdoing even the historic surge in mortgage Credit during the Mortgage Finance Bubble years.
Federal debt growth offset a contraction in several key sectors of private-sector Credit intermediation/creation. Total Mortgage Debt (TMD) expanded only $78bn during 2008. TMD Growth reached about $1.4 TN annually during ’05 and ’06 and averaged $1.177 TN annually during the six Bubble Years 2002 through 2007. For comparison, TMD expanded on averaged $270bn annually during the nineties. With the Mortgage Finance Bubble now burst, the ABS (including Wall Street’s “private-label” mortgage-backed securities) market is in disarray. Through the first eight years of the decade, the ABS market ballooned 240% to $4.50 TN. Annual growth peaked in 2006 at $912bn. In an historic reversal of fortunes, the ABS market contracted SAAR $616bn during the fourth quarter and declined $442bn for all of 2008.
Nowhere was the implosion of “Wall Street finance” more apparent than it was with the Securities Broker/Dealers. Broker/Dealer assets contracted nominal (non-annualized!) $785bn during the final three months of the year, although much of this was likely reclassification of Lehman and Merrill assets. It is worth noting that Miscellaneous Broker/Dealer Assets contracted SAAR $1.726 TN, while Treasury holdings expanded SAAR $774bn. For the year, Broker/Dealer assets were down $875bn, or 28%, to $2.217 TN.
Remarkably, Domestic Financial Sector Debt Growth accelerated from Q3’s 6.8% pace to a 7.2% rate of expansion. On a Seasonally-Adjusted and Annualized Rate (SAAR) basis, Total Financial Sector borrowings jumped to $1.222 TN during the quarter. This was in the face of the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market contracting SAAR $616bn. This critical contraction in private sector Credit was, however, largely offset by combined GSE debt and MBS growth of SAAR $569bn. Bank Commercial Loans expanded SAAR $858bn, while Open Market Paper increased SAAR $341bn.
For all of 2008, Treasury securities outstanding increased an unprecedented $1.239 TN, or 24.3%. Meanwhile, Agency securities (GSE debt and MBS) jumped $716bn, or 9.6%. Combined federal and quasi-federal securities outstanding ballooned an incredible $1.955 Trillion in just one year. For comparison, Treasury and the Agencies combined to increase debt securities $1.146 TN during 2007, $514bn in 2006 and $390bn in 2005. This ramp up of government Credit growth is outdoing even the historic surge in mortgage Credit during the Mortgage Finance Bubble years.
Federal debt growth offset a contraction in several key sectors of private-sector Credit intermediation/creation. Total Mortgage Debt (TMD) expanded only $78bn during 2008. TMD Growth reached about $1.4 TN annually during ’05 and ’06 and averaged $1.177 TN annually during the six Bubble Years 2002 through 2007. For comparison, TMD expanded on averaged $270bn annually during the nineties. With the Mortgage Finance Bubble now burst, the ABS (including Wall Street’s “private-label” mortgage-backed securities) market is in disarray. Through the first eight years of the decade, the ABS market ballooned 240% to $4.50 TN. Annual growth peaked in 2006 at $912bn. In an historic reversal of fortunes, the ABS market contracted SAAR $616bn during the fourth quarter and declined $442bn for all of 2008.
Nowhere was the implosion of “Wall Street finance” more apparent than it was with the Securities Broker/Dealers. Broker/Dealer assets contracted nominal (non-annualized!) $785bn during the final three months of the year, although much of this was likely reclassification of Lehman and Merrill assets. It is worth noting that Miscellaneous Broker/Dealer Assets contracted SAAR $1.726 TN, while Treasury holdings expanded SAAR $774bn. For the year, Broker/Dealer assets were down $875bn, or 28%, to $2.217 TN.
Friday, March 13, 2009
A CHANGE IN THE WIND?
Are we OUT of the woods? IS IT TIME TO BUY THE STOCK MARKET?
It is true the mkt can see 9 months ahead. It is my humble opinion we are in a DEPRESSION of some type, the word RECESSION just doesn't seem to cut it to describe what we are witnessing and the MAdoff style destruction of capital.
Eact time a Recession appears, a Bubble BUrsts, the men in white do not want to feel the pain, do not want to heal the prior excesses, so a bigger and badder bubble MUST be inflated.....and I think THIS TIME they really did it. 3 of the top 5 investment banks went POOF. C and BAC have been reduced to penny stocks and the lie has been exported all around the globe, bankrupting some countries like Iceland.
"We must STIMULATE the world economy" G20 meeting coming up, will the rest of the world follow the US lead?
Household debt levels in 3rd qtr were 96% of GDP and 130% of disposable income. A more historic level would be 60%.
WHAT inning are we in for deleveraging? Return to the norm?
Rally predicated on 2 things....C profitable? Retail sales "better than expected?"
from 2002
S
&P Says February Retail Sales Shortfall Not a Set Back for Economy
NEW YORK, NY -- (March 14, 2002) -- Standard & Poor's, a global leader in financial information and investment analysis, today said that the Government's Retail Sales figures for February do not indicate a setback for economic recovery. According to data released by the US Government this morning, retail sales figures fell short of market expectations in February. Finding the official numbers still quite respectable despite failing to meet lofty expectations, Standard & Poor's concludes that consumer spending remains robust. Additional commentary from Standard & Poor's can be found at the subscriber website, http://www2.standardandpoors.com
"Our GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2002 remains at 4.5%, with a solid 2.8% growth rate in real consumption,
**CONSUMER NEVER HEALED LAST RECESSION!!
Fallen Angels
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) March 10, 2009--Globally, 82 entities, with rated debt totaling US$209.13 (€166.43) billion, are listed as potential fallen angels, a new 18-year high, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's. This surpasses the previous record reached last month of 75 potential fallen angels, defined as entities rated 'BBB-' with either a negative outlook or ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, according to the article, titled "Global Potential Fallen Angels (Premium)." By comparison, 2008 averaged 47 potential fallen angels each month, increasing steadily since the second quarter of 2007.
Sectors poised to lead fallen-angel incidence include nonwater utilities with 10 entities, followed by consumer products and banks with nine entities each, and media and entertainment and homebuilders/real estate companies with six entities each. By debt volume, the line-up among potential fallen angels is led by finance companies, followed by the automotive and retail and restaurants sectors.
CREDIT CRUNCH IN EARLY STAGES
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Evidence_Crunch_Time_02_19_09.pdf
KING report for WED
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/is-this-really-the-bottom/
RETAIL SALES A SURPRISE?
Like the January report, the February retail sales report provided some positive surprises. In particular, total retail sales declined just 0.1% versus a consensus estimate that called for a 0.5% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7% versus an expected decline of 0.1%.
Once again, increases were evident in February across most sectors. Gasoline station sales led the way with a 3.4% jump, which was tied to the 8.0% month-to-month increase in average gas prices. Clothing & clothing accessories followed with a 2.8% jump as bargain hunting continued in the post-holiday period.
The areas of weakness won't surprise too many. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led there, with a 4.3% decline in February, followed by food and beverage stores (-0.7%), food service and drinking places (-0.2%), and building materials (-0.2%).
*WHY are GAS SALES IN THIS FIGURE????????????????
Markets are rallying because it is NOW seen as economic downturn may IMPROVE sooner than expected based on the last few tidbits......sure
SHOULD I decided to speculate long I would consider etf's like SSO 2X SPX......I could focus on ONE THING and not multiple companies...and set STOP LOSS to CONTROL RISK....I may wait for 2nd mouse....
D
It is true the mkt can see 9 months ahead. It is my humble opinion we are in a DEPRESSION of some type, the word RECESSION just doesn't seem to cut it to describe what we are witnessing and the MAdoff style destruction of capital.
Eact time a Recession appears, a Bubble BUrsts, the men in white do not want to feel the pain, do not want to heal the prior excesses, so a bigger and badder bubble MUST be inflated.....and I think THIS TIME they really did it. 3 of the top 5 investment banks went POOF. C and BAC have been reduced to penny stocks and the lie has been exported all around the globe, bankrupting some countries like Iceland.
"We must STIMULATE the world economy" G20 meeting coming up, will the rest of the world follow the US lead?
Household debt levels in 3rd qtr were 96% of GDP and 130% of disposable income. A more historic level would be 60%.
WHAT inning are we in for deleveraging? Return to the norm?
Rally predicated on 2 things....C profitable? Retail sales "better than expected?"
from 2002
S
&P Says February Retail Sales Shortfall Not a Set Back for Economy
NEW YORK, NY -- (March 14, 2002) -- Standard & Poor's, a global leader in financial information and investment analysis, today said that the Government's Retail Sales figures for February do not indicate a setback for economic recovery. According to data released by the US Government this morning, retail sales figures fell short of market expectations in February. Finding the official numbers still quite respectable despite failing to meet lofty expectations, Standard & Poor's concludes that consumer spending remains robust. Additional commentary from Standard & Poor's can be found at the subscriber website, http://www2.standardandpoors.com
"Our GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2002 remains at 4.5%, with a solid 2.8% growth rate in real consumption,
**CONSUMER NEVER HEALED LAST RECESSION!!
Fallen Angels
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) March 10, 2009--Globally, 82 entities, with rated debt totaling US$209.13 (€166.43) billion, are listed as potential fallen angels, a new 18-year high, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's. This surpasses the previous record reached last month of 75 potential fallen angels, defined as entities rated 'BBB-' with either a negative outlook or ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, according to the article, titled "Global Potential Fallen Angels (Premium)." By comparison, 2008 averaged 47 potential fallen angels each month, increasing steadily since the second quarter of 2007.
Sectors poised to lead fallen-angel incidence include nonwater utilities with 10 entities, followed by consumer products and banks with nine entities each, and media and entertainment and homebuilders/real estate companies with six entities each. By debt volume, the line-up among potential fallen angels is led by finance companies, followed by the automotive and retail and restaurants sectors.
CREDIT CRUNCH IN EARLY STAGES
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Evidence_Crunch_Time_02_19_09.pdf
KING report for WED
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/is-this-really-the-bottom/
RETAIL SALES A SURPRISE?
Like the January report, the February retail sales report provided some positive surprises. In particular, total retail sales declined just 0.1% versus a consensus estimate that called for a 0.5% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7% versus an expected decline of 0.1%.
Once again, increases were evident in February across most sectors. Gasoline station sales led the way with a 3.4% jump, which was tied to the 8.0% month-to-month increase in average gas prices. Clothing & clothing accessories followed with a 2.8% jump as bargain hunting continued in the post-holiday period.
The areas of weakness won't surprise too many. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led there, with a 4.3% decline in February, followed by food and beverage stores (-0.7%), food service and drinking places (-0.2%), and building materials (-0.2%).
*WHY are GAS SALES IN THIS FIGURE????????????????
Markets are rallying because it is NOW seen as economic downturn may IMPROVE sooner than expected based on the last few tidbits......sure
SHOULD I decided to speculate long I would consider etf's like SSO 2X SPX......I could focus on ONE THING and not multiple companies...and set STOP LOSS to CONTROL RISK....I may wait for 2nd mouse....
D
Thursday, March 12, 2009
LONG WAVES
http://www.hsdent.com/slw.pdf Understanding long term cycles and why this is TOOMuch like the 1930 era.
http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/090310/10_more_companies_at_risk_of_failing.html?.&.pf=family-home
There will be a lot more bankruptcies. Moody's places 283 companies on its bottom-rung list, up from 157 a year ago. Since the quarterly list was last updated, 73 additional companies have fallen to the bottom rung. Twenty-four companies made their way off the list - but mostly because they defaulted on their debts. Only one company, Landry's Restaurants, got off the list because its circumstances improved.
[See why bank nationalization terrifies Wall Street.]
Companies exposed to consumer spending have it toughest. The industries most represented on the list are media, automotive, retail and manufacturing. Companies in the most acute danger are those with reduced cash flow and a high debt load. A lot of big, well-known companies are in danger. On the list: Advanced Micro Devices; AirTran; AMR (parent of American Airlines); Chrysler; Duane Reade; Eastman-Kodak; Ford; General Motors; JetBlue; Krispy Kreme; Palm; R.H. Donnelly; Reader's Digest Association; Rite-Aid; UAL (parent of United Airlines); Unisys; and US Airways.
Many of the other firms on the list are second- or third-tier suppliers to automakers, airlines, and other troubled firms. Being on the list doesn't mean a firm is destined for bankruptcy. But it does mean the company faces severe constraints in terms of raising new capital, making new investments, and hiring. Instead of expanding, it may be far more inclined to sell assets, streamline or close divisions, and lay people off to cut costs and raise cash.
[See 6 possible upsides to a GM bankruptcy.]
America's malls are going to end up looking a lot different. The retail sector is obviously getting hammered, with chains like Circuit City and Linens 'n Things already out of business. Many other retail chains are in trouble. Also on the bottom-rung list: Barney's; BCBG Maz Azria; Blockbuster; Brookstone; Claire's Stores; Eddie Bauer; Finlay Fine Jewelry; Harry & David; Loehmann's; Michael's Stores; Oriental Trading Co.; and Sbarro. Again, this doesn't mean the company is doomed. But many of these firms will restructure, close outlets, shrink, and find ways to transform themselves. So if you ever go back to the mall, and your favorite shop has disappeared, you'll know why.
http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/090310/10_more_companies_at_risk_of_failing.html?.&.pf=family-home
There will be a lot more bankruptcies. Moody's places 283 companies on its bottom-rung list, up from 157 a year ago. Since the quarterly list was last updated, 73 additional companies have fallen to the bottom rung. Twenty-four companies made their way off the list - but mostly because they defaulted on their debts. Only one company, Landry's Restaurants, got off the list because its circumstances improved.
[See why bank nationalization terrifies Wall Street.]
Companies exposed to consumer spending have it toughest. The industries most represented on the list are media, automotive, retail and manufacturing. Companies in the most acute danger are those with reduced cash flow and a high debt load. A lot of big, well-known companies are in danger. On the list: Advanced Micro Devices; AirTran; AMR (parent of American Airlines); Chrysler; Duane Reade; Eastman-Kodak; Ford; General Motors; JetBlue; Krispy Kreme; Palm; R.H. Donnelly; Reader's Digest Association; Rite-Aid; UAL (parent of United Airlines); Unisys; and US Airways.
Many of the other firms on the list are second- or third-tier suppliers to automakers, airlines, and other troubled firms. Being on the list doesn't mean a firm is destined for bankruptcy. But it does mean the company faces severe constraints in terms of raising new capital, making new investments, and hiring. Instead of expanding, it may be far more inclined to sell assets, streamline or close divisions, and lay people off to cut costs and raise cash.
[See 6 possible upsides to a GM bankruptcy.]
America's malls are going to end up looking a lot different. The retail sector is obviously getting hammered, with chains like Circuit City and Linens 'n Things already out of business. Many other retail chains are in trouble. Also on the bottom-rung list: Barney's; BCBG Maz Azria; Blockbuster; Brookstone; Claire's Stores; Eddie Bauer; Finlay Fine Jewelry; Harry & David; Loehmann's; Michael's Stores; Oriental Trading Co.; and Sbarro. Again, this doesn't mean the company is doomed. But many of these firms will restructure, close outlets, shrink, and find ways to transform themselves. So if you ever go back to the mall, and your favorite shop has disappeared, you'll know why.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
MARKET AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE!!
TUES WAS a 90% up day, across the board strength, closed at highs. AFter 2 90% DOWNERS when followed now by a 90% UPPER....with bears at 70% AAII poll, horrific oversold mkt, lots in place for a major market bottom, onus is on bulls to prove it....with follow thru.
A return to SELL THE RALLY would bring in question, LOW CPC reading bothers me, but NOT a deal breaker.
A VIX shattered maybe below 40 tick would be helpful as well.
NO NEED to rush in, if indeed mkt has found some kinda b0ttom, we have time, yes some powerful gains will cone initially.....but a safer setup is in distance....IMHO if this is true.....
Always good to make list of stocks you loved at MUCH higher prices....mkt has been sawed in half.....could fall another 50% but...there are BEAR MKT RALLIES...we MAY be set up for one......I will be watching closely.......I dont see a change in BIZ....not here, not yet, not at all...if I just think of all I know I would IGNORE MKT 100%.
I think this is built for NIMBLE TRADERS, I am skeptical of return to LTBH
D
A return to SELL THE RALLY would bring in question, LOW CPC reading bothers me, but NOT a deal breaker.
A VIX shattered maybe below 40 tick would be helpful as well.
NO NEED to rush in, if indeed mkt has found some kinda b0ttom, we have time, yes some powerful gains will cone initially.....but a safer setup is in distance....IMHO if this is true.....
Always good to make list of stocks you loved at MUCH higher prices....mkt has been sawed in half.....could fall another 50% but...there are BEAR MKT RALLIES...we MAY be set up for one......I will be watching closely.......I dont see a change in BIZ....not here, not yet, not at all...if I just think of all I know I would IGNORE MKT 100%.
I think this is built for NIMBLE TRADERS, I am skeptical of return to LTBH
D
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
BIG RALLY EMERGING?
I find it odd, that during recent PLUNGE, the calls for overly bearish readings sure aren't backed up by a falling CPC..... higher put calling would make this raio rise.....calls are bought by those hnting mkt bottom.
D
Monday, March 09, 2009
WHEN WILL THE RECESSION? BE OVER
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/opinion/01endintro.html?_r=1 full article
NY Times: "When Will the Recession Be Over?"
by CalculatedRisk on 3/01/2009 02:32:00 PM
The NY Times asked several economists and forecasters 'When Will the Recession Be Over?' Here are a few excerpts:
Beware the False Dawn By STEPHEN S.ROACH (Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia)
IT would be premature to declare an end to America’s recession at the first sign of a resumption of growth. After the unusually steep declines in the economy late last year and early this year, a statistical rebound in the second half of 2009 would hardly be shocking. ... But any such whiffs of growth are likely to herald a false dawn, because the consumer remains in terrible shape. ...This points to an unusually anemic upturn, at best — not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising to near 10 percent over the next year and a half. Since it’s hard to call that a recovery, it looks to me as if this recession won’t end until late 2010 or early 2011.
A Long Goodbye By A. MICHAEL SPENCE (Stanford Professor, Nobel prize, economics)
THE short answer is not soon. The recession is global: exports, production and consumption are in high-speed descent. The headwinds are powerful because of excessive leverage, damaged balance sheets and the resulting tight credit. ...Governments and central banks are the only major sources of credit, liquidity and incremental demand ... If governments are quick and clear in their intentions and intervene in a coordinated way in both the real economy and the financial sector, we will probably have an unusually long and deep global recession through 2010. If they don’t, it is likely to be worse than that.
An Ordinary Crisis By GEORGE COOPER
TODAY’S financial crisis is the biggest in recent history, when measured by its speed, the scale of its capital losses or its global reach. Yet viewed from another perspective the crisis is surprisingly ordinary, following the same path as dozens of previous bubbles. ...If we go by the first measure [started in mid'80s] we may see two or more decades of readjustment. If we go by the second [started turn of the millennium], we are still probably in the early stages of the credit correction, meaning that while the technical recession could be over by the end of the year, the broader credit cycle will likely remain a significant drag on economic activity well into the next decade. Either way, we have a long way to go.
NY Times: "When Will the Recession Be Over?"
by CalculatedRisk on 3/01/2009 02:32:00 PM
The NY Times asked several economists and forecasters 'When Will the Recession Be Over?' Here are a few excerpts:
Beware the False Dawn By STEPHEN S.ROACH (Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia)
IT would be premature to declare an end to America’s recession at the first sign of a resumption of growth. After the unusually steep declines in the economy late last year and early this year, a statistical rebound in the second half of 2009 would hardly be shocking. ... But any such whiffs of growth are likely to herald a false dawn, because the consumer remains in terrible shape. ...This points to an unusually anemic upturn, at best — not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising to near 10 percent over the next year and a half. Since it’s hard to call that a recovery, it looks to me as if this recession won’t end until late 2010 or early 2011.
A Long Goodbye By A. MICHAEL SPENCE (Stanford Professor, Nobel prize, economics)
THE short answer is not soon. The recession is global: exports, production and consumption are in high-speed descent. The headwinds are powerful because of excessive leverage, damaged balance sheets and the resulting tight credit. ...Governments and central banks are the only major sources of credit, liquidity and incremental demand ... If governments are quick and clear in their intentions and intervene in a coordinated way in both the real economy and the financial sector, we will probably have an unusually long and deep global recession through 2010. If they don’t, it is likely to be worse than that.
An Ordinary Crisis By GEORGE COOPER
TODAY’S financial crisis is the biggest in recent history, when measured by its speed, the scale of its capital losses or its global reach. Yet viewed from another perspective the crisis is surprisingly ordinary, following the same path as dozens of previous bubbles. ...If we go by the first measure [started in mid'80s] we may see two or more decades of readjustment. If we go by the second [started turn of the millennium], we are still probably in the early stages of the credit correction, meaning that while the technical recession could be over by the end of the year, the broader credit cycle will likely remain a significant drag on economic activity well into the next decade. Either way, we have a long way to go.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
MARTIN ARMSTRONG "Not So Happy Ending"
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/01/martin-armstrong-the-coming-great-depression.html
We may be at a Short Term bottom near here, 6,000 was my first target. I am PONDERING using SSO (etf 2X spx long) with stops and SHORT LEASH. I dont have a signal for it, with AAII 70% bear reading, oversold mkt in many ways....it should lead to something....capitulation? NO......hardly anyone left optimistic? YES
Could MARK TO MARKET accounting be suspended? one catalyst I been thinking.....ST Rally normal in OCT and MArch too.....lows could bring 3,500- 5000 DOW 2009-2012 ish
D
We may be at a Short Term bottom near here, 6,000 was my first target. I am PONDERING using SSO (etf 2X spx long) with stops and SHORT LEASH. I dont have a signal for it, with AAII 70% bear reading, oversold mkt in many ways....it should lead to something....capitulation? NO......hardly anyone left optimistic? YES
Could MARK TO MARKET accounting be suspended? one catalyst I been thinking.....ST Rally normal in OCT and MArch too.....lows could bring 3,500- 5000 DOW 2009-2012 ish
D
Friday, March 06, 2009
Thursday, March 05, 2009
AS GOES GE GOES US ECONOMY?
*Market action, yes ugly AGAIN! oversold and cant rally....yet, Transports were KILLED today down near 7%. This is a generational SECULAR (long term) BEAR MARKET. If we make it past this thing I don't think we will ever witness anything like this in our lifetimes.
I'm beating a dead horse....read below.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger excellent site, he has been more right than most!
More GE (IMPORTANT)
Off the wires, no link.
"DJ reports GE Capital credit default swaps worsen even as GE released a statement emphasizing its strong cash position. The CDS are most recently quoted at 17.5 points up front, from 16.5 points up front earlier today, according to Phoenix Partners Group. That means investors must pay $1.75 mln up front, plus a $500,000 annual fee, to protect $10 mln of GECC senior bonds against default for five years."
That means the first year cost is $1.75 + $500k, or $2.25 million.
That's 22.5% first year cost to insure $10 million against default!
This means that the market is saying that the odds of GE going bankrupt within the next twelve months is greater than one in five, and that assumes zero recovery.
If the bonds would recover more than 80% in the event of a default then it is implying more than a 100% risk of default, which is obviously impossible.
This is occurring despite GE's CFO appearing this morning on CNBC making the case quite clearly that there is no risk of default under any materially possible scenario. In other words, his assertion is that the odds of default are zero.
One of two things must be true:
GE's CFO is lying and must be indicted for doing so.
This so-called "market segment" (CDS) has become so ridiculously overlevered, unsupervised and able to cause failures that it is now within days or even hours of CAUSING GE to fail - not due to GE's own internal problems, but due to positive feedback that the CDS market is capable of and is generating on the initiative and as a consequence of the action of participants in that market.
Either way a major change needs to occur right here and now, lest we find ourselves with no pensions, no Social Security, no Medicare, no annuities and no government.
THIS CAN NO LONGER BE DELAYED OR TOYED AROUND WITH; WHEN "THE BEZZLE" REACHES THE POINT THAT IT STARTS DESTROYING THE NATIONAL CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL GIANTS THAT MAKE UP OUR ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN IT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGENCY AND MUST BE DEALT WITH IMMEDIATELY.
I'm beating a dead horse....read below.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger excellent site, he has been more right than most!
More GE (IMPORTANT)
Off the wires, no link.
"DJ reports GE Capital credit default swaps worsen even as GE released a statement emphasizing its strong cash position. The CDS are most recently quoted at 17.5 points up front, from 16.5 points up front earlier today, according to Phoenix Partners Group. That means investors must pay $1.75 mln up front, plus a $500,000 annual fee, to protect $10 mln of GECC senior bonds against default for five years."
That means the first year cost is $1.75 + $500k, or $2.25 million.
That's 22.5% first year cost to insure $10 million against default!
This means that the market is saying that the odds of GE going bankrupt within the next twelve months is greater than one in five, and that assumes zero recovery.
If the bonds would recover more than 80% in the event of a default then it is implying more than a 100% risk of default, which is obviously impossible.
This is occurring despite GE's CFO appearing this morning on CNBC making the case quite clearly that there is no risk of default under any materially possible scenario. In other words, his assertion is that the odds of default are zero.
One of two things must be true:
GE's CFO is lying and must be indicted for doing so.
This so-called "market segment" (CDS) has become so ridiculously overlevered, unsupervised and able to cause failures that it is now within days or even hours of CAUSING GE to fail - not due to GE's own internal problems, but due to positive feedback that the CDS market is capable of and is generating on the initiative and as a consequence of the action of participants in that market.
Either way a major change needs to occur right here and now, lest we find ourselves with no pensions, no Social Security, no Medicare, no annuities and no government.
THIS CAN NO LONGER BE DELAYED OR TOYED AROUND WITH; WHEN "THE BEZZLE" REACHES THE POINT THAT IT STARTS DESTROYING THE NATIONAL CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL GIANTS THAT MAKE UP OUR ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN IT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGENCY AND MUST BE DEALT WITH IMMEDIATELY.
"MELTDOWN" WHo's to blame?
http://wbal.com/apps/news/templates/smith_show.aspx?articleid=21367&zoneid=19
Liaten LIVE WBAL>COM 3-6 for conservative talk and some truth
http://wbal.com/
Liaten LIVE WBAL>COM 3-6 for conservative talk and some truth
http://wbal.com/
Briefing.com Check out the REVISIONS!
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
SO what good are previous data? pure BS
D
SO what good are previous data? pure BS
D
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
WASHINGTON – The country spiraled deeper into recession to start 2009, forcing widespread cutbacks and layoffs among everyone from blue-collar workers who once churned out construction equipment to white-collar professionals like business consultants and accountants.
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released Wednesday, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
Ten of the 12 fed regions said economic activity worsened, while the Philadelphia and Chicago districts said economies "remained weak."
"National economic conditions deteriorated further," the Fed's survey concluded. "The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions."
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released Wednesday, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
Ten of the 12 fed regions said economic activity worsened, while the Philadelphia and Chicago districts said economies "remained weak."
"National economic conditions deteriorated further," the Fed's survey concluded. "The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions."
NOT GOOD SIGN
LArgest mid market office furniture manufacturer, new LOW WOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFF less employees, less need for furniture..... This stock HAD in past led down and up year or more in advance......ominous market has yet to RESPOND to actions, 90% declines and oversold. We seem "DUE" for decent rally...so far thet et SOLD so can;'t take holdD
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
A MESSAGE OF HOPE "THE PHOENIX WILL RISE AGAIN"
*(welcome to all my new readers, my google analytics show me traffic here has hit its highest since I started 4 years ago.....)
BEAR MARKETS are major destructive forces. And they help to bring things back into order, help to correct the previous expansions excesses and helps to rat out the creeps, like MAdoff.
We are witnessing a "not your ordinary" bear market. There is still potential for additional severe losses. Using forward 12 months SPX earnings, dividend yields, PE Ratios and technical analysis I can safely surmise the BOTTOM is not IN YET, all IMHO of course.
Think of all the companies laid to waste, all the financial and insurance firms, the retail stores like Circuit City, the auto companies, home builders, shippers, Fannie Mae and housing in general. Las VEgas is suffering. PEOPLE all over the world are suffering.
But know this, from this devestation, the stage will be set for a REBIRTH. And if one can time it decent enough MAYBE the buys of a lifetime.
With lots of comeptitors knocked out there will be room for growth again. I just don't know WHEN.
I see the potential for SPX 300-400,
The key to this is....... SURVIVING it, To not be loaded down with DEBT, to have raised cash to have lived within your means.
SIMPLE TA could have helped avoid disaster. Most opinions uselss, news uselss. TV useless.
WE cannot live like each day is our last, but like each day is the beginning of the next and we have a future and all is not lost.
But the preceding excesses were so great, mighty have fallen, there is lots to be done and this has to work itself out. IT is possible GOV can make it worse and they aren't answer to everything.
This is something that cannot be fought, it needs to burn itself out. We are FAR closer to its end then from its beginning.
Good luck and best to all
DUratek
BEAR MARKETS are major destructive forces. And they help to bring things back into order, help to correct the previous expansions excesses and helps to rat out the creeps, like MAdoff.
We are witnessing a "not your ordinary" bear market. There is still potential for additional severe losses. Using forward 12 months SPX earnings, dividend yields, PE Ratios and technical analysis I can safely surmise the BOTTOM is not IN YET, all IMHO of course.
Think of all the companies laid to waste, all the financial and insurance firms, the retail stores like Circuit City, the auto companies, home builders, shippers, Fannie Mae and housing in general. Las VEgas is suffering. PEOPLE all over the world are suffering.
But know this, from this devestation, the stage will be set for a REBIRTH. And if one can time it decent enough MAYBE the buys of a lifetime.
With lots of comeptitors knocked out there will be room for growth again. I just don't know WHEN.
I see the potential for SPX 300-400,
The key to this is....... SURVIVING it, To not be loaded down with DEBT, to have raised cash to have lived within your means.
SIMPLE TA could have helped avoid disaster. Most opinions uselss, news uselss. TV useless.
WE cannot live like each day is our last, but like each day is the beginning of the next and we have a future and all is not lost.
But the preceding excesses were so great, mighty have fallen, there is lots to be done and this has to work itself out. IT is possible GOV can make it worse and they aren't answer to everything.
This is something that cannot be fought, it needs to burn itself out. We are FAR closer to its end then from its beginning.
Good luck and best to all
DUratek
Monday, March 02, 2009
USING FIB RETRACEMENTS
*click to enlarge CHARTIs why I think we see a sub 6,000 DOW before this bear is laid to rest, this is one for the history books friends!
D
Saturday, February 28, 2009
NOT YOUR MOTHERS BEAR MARKET
*(comemnts from one of my friends KJ, who is very smart and usualaly dead on his market and economic thoughts)
PS
This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....
Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???
I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.
Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.
If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.
Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.
**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments
Duratek
PS
This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....
Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???
I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.
Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.
If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.
Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.
**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments
Duratek
Friday, February 27, 2009
CREDIT MARKET DEBT
Total credit market debt had reached 260% of GDP in 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression. US total credit market debt has doubled over the past five years, alone."BEST MARKET TIMERS REMAIN BULLISH SEPT 2007 !!!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 (yes folks...so what do we need "experts TIMERS FOR?)
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
Many investors still fear a bear market, but almost all top market-timing newsletters recommend a heavy weighting of stocks.
NOW WHAT?
The stock market appears to be settling down a bit from the extraordinary volatility that characterized the market in the last half of July and much of August.
This relative calm provides a good opportunity to step back and review the stock-market forecasts of those stock-market timing newsletters that have the best long-term records.
I focus, as I have in prior columns, on a select group of top stock-market timing newsletters. Specifically, my group included the 10 services with the best risk-adjusted market-timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest.
I
have focused on risk-adjusted performance because I didn't want to give undue credit to a newsletter whose raw return was caused by nothing more than a willingness to incur inordinate amounts of risk.
By the way, I went through a similar exercise just over a year ago for Barron's Online. I found at that time that there were no bears among the top market timers, and that the average recommended equity exposure among them was 84%. Since then, needless to say, the stock market has handsomely acquitted these top timers' bullishness: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20% higher today than then.
And I again went through this exercise in early May, discovering then that their average recommended equity exposure was 83%. The DJIA is today about two percentage points higher than where it stood then.
As I did last August and in May, I eliminated one of the 10 top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar.
What follows is a brief synopsis of the current stock-market forecasts of the nine remaining newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. (The newsletters are listed alphabetically.)
• Blue Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's model portfolio is currently 91% invested in equities. Check's equity-valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be slightly undervalued. In his most recent issue (published in late August), Check wrote "the best buying opportunities arise when investors panic. When the market drops 10%, you can be assured bargains will exist."
• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early September, Editor Bob Brinker writes: "A number of market pundits claim that the correction that began in late July was the start of a bear market. We totally disagree with this view. On the contrary, we do not believe a bear market ([defined as an] S&P 500 index decline in excess of 20%) is on the radar screen anytime this year. *(was this a f'ing idiot or what?)We are forecasting the continuation of the ongoing bull market at least into next year, and we anticipate significant stock-market gains going forward." His model portfolios are fully invested.
• Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believes that there is a good possibility that the intraday lows established on Aug. 16 "represented an effective bottom" of the correction that began in July. Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 74% invested currently, and his model mutual-fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
• Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
• Medical Technology Stock Letter: Bullish. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that its track record places it in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is close to being fully invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish, with 200% invested and 100% on margin. Don't try this approach at home.
• No-Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger suspects that the stock-market correction that began in mid-July has longer to run. But, he hastens to add, "I do not expect the corrective period to result in double-digit losses for the market at large….A true bear market continues to seem unlikely for the time being. The underlying positives of strong global growth, mild inflation and interest rates, low unemployment and formidable corporate-cash cushions make a sustained double-digit percentage drop unlikely." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
• Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market-timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10 based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with eight bulls and two bears. His consensus of the top 10 for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 10 bulls and no bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 91% invested in stocks, on average.
• Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris wrote in his early-September issue: "It has certainly been a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride. But history shows that sharp, short-lived corrections are buying opportunities the majority of the time. They're also among the worst times to sell." Harris continues to rate the intermediate and major trends of the stock market as positive. His model stock portfolios are fully invested.
The bottom line? None of these nine top timers are bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 92%. This is higher than where this average stood a year ago, as well as where it was in early May.
This 92% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the 10 stock-market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is 0%.
In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.
There are no guarantees. But to bet on a new bear market right now, you have to bet against the timers with the best long-term records and with those whose records have been awful.
Mark Hulbert is founder of The Hulbert Financial Digest. He is a senior columnist for MarketWatch.
*** Today.....well my loyal lurkers......we know how this turned out......and you know what I was saying in 2007..
Duratek
THERE GOES THE GOOD SHIP LOLLYPOP!
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm IMAGINE GDP WORSE than expected? revised to down 6.2% !!!
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
I show 15M chart of dbl bottom 752 SPX, forgettaboutit....now 742 was LOWS.....futures POINT to -17 so that's gonna blow
FUGLY............where it ends nobody knows...OBAMA plan seen as tits on a boar....stim dont stim.....taxes rising OMG! entitlements GROWING.....2 sided mouth plan where we haaa CUT the deficit in half by 2012 yet SPENDING GROWS>>>???
GOV spending takes away from private sector, biz spending and investment...imagine the best bitter meds might be kerplop and consumer retrench (aren't they) cut spending, pay down debt.....increase savings.
GOV NO GOOD because my friends....is was HISTORIC EXCESSIVE DEBT that got us into this.....and it IS deflating, unwinding and it's SO BIG nothing can stop it
D
Thursday, February 26, 2009
OBAMANATION OBAMANOMICS
full story http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/27/us/politics/27web-budget.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&src=igw
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
The budget plan projects the deficit falling to $1.17 trillion in 2010 and down to Mr. Obama’s goal of $533 billion in 2013, then increasing again to $712 billion by 2019. Mr. Obama takes credit for $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, three quarters of which comes from lower expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan and most of the rest from tax increases on the wealthy and revenue from a market-based cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
The forecasts are also founded on optimistic assumptions that the recession will end by next year and quickly produce stronger growth than was seen in the last decade. After the economy shrinks this year, the Obama team assumes that the gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 3.2 percent next year and then 4 percent or more the following three years, a rate nearly twice the average of the Bush years.
F!!!!!!!!!!!!!! this idiot socialist is trying to take the dow to ZERO?
what are ASS UMPTIONS??????? With McCain a loser, and no 3rd party candidate allowed...................BIZ as USUAL is what we're stuck with/
I have NEVER seen a PRES in front of cameras like this one...the campaign is over...so is the party....
MKT no LIKEY! BASSACKWARDIZATION
Duratek
15 Minute SPX VIEW
@ click to enlarge752 looming as dbl bottom or last stand ME don'ts like the action, hey jbr you hangin in there?
Today in a NUTSHELL (wall street journal)
Markets continued to swing unpredictably on Thursday, ending lower as health insurers and drug makers sank sharply after the Obama administration unveiled sweeping plans for healthcare reform.
Traders also jockeyed to balance their books heading into the last trading day of the month, which has seen major averages hit fresh bear-market lows.
D
California Unempoyment 9.4%
http://odeo.com/episodes/24121458-Growing-Unemployment-is-Putting-the-Squeeze-on-CA-s-Healthcare-System
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Newly unemployed across country are also losing their health care benefits which puts even more stress on our system and a fix.
2/3 of US GOV budget of $3.3Trillion goes to MEdicare and Social Security. Remaining 1/3 is left for DEFENSE and everything else!!!!
SO include INTEREST ON THE US DEBT, and now our deficit is reaching beyond $1 Trillion, all these new GOV programs are adding to the HOLE we are digging.
Can't do nothing you say? Maybe not, but the GOV is crowding OUT the PRIVATE sector for the CREDIT they need to operate and grow.
Long term rates are rising. SO we can monetize the debt too? KEEP RATES LOW?
ONce you become educated, enlightened as towhat is REALLY going on here and there is NO going back......you remain informed, aware, but this unfortunately brings the burdon of knowing....
Tuesday was a 90% UP volume day, WEd no follow thru, could suggest prices need to FALL further before we can declare an END to this BEAR MKT!!
TA will tell us months after it is over it may be safe to test the waters.....but not in real time.
GE may pop back to life, I may regret NOT buying near $9 >????!!!! But this also tells me there may be something horribly wrong here, how bad is their financial arm hurting them?
We are still at oversold readings, more upside may be possible. I do not think BEAR MKT IS OVER IMHO
D
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS SHARED
Wait wait P….OBAMA plan is highlighting ALT energy…wait a tck! Even the OBVIOUS comes with a VIPER inside the bag
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Don’t mean harm BUT Henry TO added insult to injury perhaps..hope its just his money…DYING to be right
Once in lifetime mkt calls for once in lifetime CAUTION
From: P
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
Thanks KJ. My count agrees with your concern.
TAN -8%; FSLR 136 to 110 today. So far.
From: KJ
: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?
You know, listen to saut comments from yesterday....He is getting hate mail from people who think he was not defensive enough, and they are correct. This market has proved many people with decades under their belt wrong. He mentions we are either days from a tradable rally/bottom, or on the verge of a crash, and I know he is not taking that too seriously. I said to myself yesterday, so far this bear has done all the low probability items on the menue, and really smoked people. I figure the crash senario is higehr probability, it would catch the most off gaurd, and then set up a rally.
Subject: RE: Rerun of '87 next? market bottom?Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:07:53 - from D
Allstate (ALL 18.64) cut its quarterly dividend by 51%, blaming weak recent earnings for the change.
Allstate said it will reduce its quarterly dividend to $0.20 from $0.41, payable on April 1, 2009.
WILL this bear show us SPX DIV 6% PE’s at 10?
L fishing for bottom…..STI was not impressive. NO TA to show bottom HOME VALUES and SALES KEEP FALLING WORKERS KEEP GETTING AXE……what bank program will work?
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
WILL CUT DEFICIT IN HALF FIRST TERM????
THIS IS GOOD START??? haa
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
WASHINGTON – AP
House Democrats unveiled a $410 billion spending bill on Monday to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year, setting up the second political struggle over federal funds in less than a month with Republicans.
The measure includes thousands of earmarks, the pet projects favored by lawmakers but often criticized by the public in opinion polls. There was no official total of the bill's earmarks, which accounted for at least $3.8 billion.
The legislation, which includes an increase of roughly 8 percent over spending in the last fiscal year, is expected to clear the House later in the week.
Democrats defended the spending increases, saying they were needed to make up for cuts enacted in recent years or proposed a year ago by then-President George W. Bush in health, education, energy and other programs.
Republicans countered that the spending in the bill far outpaced inflation, and amounted to much higher increases when combined with spending in the stimulus legislation that President Barack Obama signed last week. In a letter to top Democratic leaders, the GOP leadership called for a spending freeze, a step they said would point toward a "new standard of fiscal discipline."
**NYSE TICK getting close to area we might finally see a bump....but ultimate bottom probably not in yet.
D
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Santelli RANT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiCOb49vVVM UTUBE RANT
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thomas Jefferson Quote
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."
What we have now is forced Socialism and regulating income redistribution. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, we will have some judges presiding over whether a mortgage can have its principle knocked down so the (NOT LYING) down and out home owner can SOMEHOW stay in the home they bought and couldn't afford?
Those who voted for Obama and HIlary are going to get what you asked for and the others of us will pay. NO I hated BUSH.....I am for Conservative GOV that doesn't spend us into oblivion nor tax us into oblivion, WHERE IS OUR FREE MARKET SYSTEM?
D
Thursday, February 19, 2009
SAVE YOUR ASS Investing 101 DURATEK STYLE
*CLICK TO ENLARGE
I AM GOING TO KEEP THIS SIMPLE AND IN CAPS....DEATH CROSS 50/200 AND BOTH DESCENDING THIS IS SCREAMING A BEAR MARKET IS HERE. YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELF THE 2X THIS OCCURED.
IN EARLY 2003 YOU CAN ALSO SEE WHEN THE MA'S BEGAN TO CLIMB AND WE HAD A CROSS UP OF 50 THRU 200 and there only the stubborn will stay bearish.
You don;t hardly need to know anything more, and it doesn't matter a squat what anybody says, you can TURN OFF THE FLIPPIN' TV SET.
I use addt'l TA to fine tune my signals and get them earlier for move down and up, but this signal is one not to be ignored IMHO NEVER EVER NEVER
I may not get the bottom, nor the top, but I sure as hell amnot going to have to grab my ankles as I sit there unaware and dumbfounded by a rise or decline so significant you cannot afford to fly BLIND
YOU cannot afford to be at MERCY of Wall street shills and the CRamer's etc of the world, what helpful did even ONE SOD at CNBC say or do to leep you out of harm's way in this most destructive Bear MKT?
WTF good are they then?
OTHER SHAMONS where CHIMPS do well in BULL spout special systems and signals blah blah are losing their subscribers asses now!!!!
WHAT about a freakin stop loss on any of their calls? EVERYBODY is wrong now again....you just MUST BE ABLE TO CUT YOUR LOSSES.
NOW.....what was gained back from 2003-2007 is GONE AND THEN SOME!!!
Most will end up SELLING near the lows.....it's just the way it goes time and time again.
VIX not screaming panic here either....
TRANSPORTS BELOW LAST NOV LOWS.........misery loves company.
GOV RESPONSE is pure BS......pablum for the masses....will do little good....its pathetic!
D
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
CFO 2009 OUTLOOK
http://corp.bankofamerica.com/publicpdf/landing/cfooutlook/Final_PDF.pdf
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
current BAC price $4.58 = $22.98 B mkt cap down from $229 B a drop of 90% in last 52 weeks
SPX RENKO
I use this in conjuction with other usual technical data. In general in when WHITE out when RED, can also see this in daily and monthly form, I like weekly for this bear bull call.
I added trend line so when broken I could enter on 1st white bar or exit 1st red if desired.
In BULL like 90's, could wait for 2nd red renko to exit would have kept you in. NOBODY gets in at bottom or out at top.....object is to ride the tide when less risky.
ANY NUMBER of signals would have been seen as early as 2007 where you could have avoided most of this bear market.
I am less inclined to GUESS at bottom on this nasty Depression-like Bear.....prices are obviously DOWN there....could be WHILE before profits come back.
I do not see bear bottom markers as yet.
D
CLOSEUP OF RECENT S & P 500 BREAKDOWN
*Click to enlarge.
Now, do we go and see if 740 can hold? TUES was ANOTHER 90% DOWN volume day, we can conclude the DESIRE to sell has not been vanguished, but has desire to buy?
NONE of the GOV bailout prgorams address the core of the problems, we've infected the economic universe...NO easy way out!
During last "mild" Recession Consumers NEVER stopped their credit binge, so what does FED DO? LOWER rates to 1% and hold them firing up the now defacto defuncto REAL ESTATE BUBBLE.....so now we must heal and pain is multiplied.
PLEASE stop seeing the gov and FED as rescue and for what they are THE PROBLEM!
D
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
MUST READ
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123456974951086203.html from Baron's interview with Robert Albertson.....no QUICK FIX and YES we ain't going about it right!
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
Folks forget Recession talks.....we in a Depression like state and we can't afford ANY more mistakes... I wish those now in power would talk to just one of these guys who know!
D
"RED ALERT FX DISLOCATION IN PROCESS"
http://market-ticker.org/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
Man have we reached the point of NO RETURN? ZOMBIES, BALD HEADS...roving pack of idiots and liars, and Ponzi's....like the plumb from an ATomic blast rising to the heavens only to CRASH down on all of humanity....and finance.
D
ZOMBIE BANKS
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8346.html ZOMBIES IN BANK SYSTEM – ATTRACTING LAST PUBLIC FUNDS
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Why markets dissed geithner plan ANDY KESSLER
http://www.andykessler.com/
AN all out ATTACK of SPX 800 this AM according to RED futures, boy now that wouldn't be good!
Look, I don't enjoy reporting this, but it is what it is, better to try and be prepared.... BILLIONS flowing into the states might be helpful but wont save our economy.
D
Saturday, February 14, 2009
"EARNINGS ARE CRASHING"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html Carl Swenlin from great Decision Pt site.
OUCH!!!
Duratek
OUCH!!!
Duratek
FALSE CLAIMS AND THE CLUELESS
As of 8:37 a.m. EST • Obama: Stimulus bill 'major milestone' Those (in charge) who think a spending bill will get us out of the mess we're in are showing they do not understand the problem. WILD claims of creating 3.5 Million jobs are made without any burdon of explaining where that number came from.
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
The FED shoved $1 Trillion into system in just the last several months.....to no avail,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf has that process now topped, what a STEEP weekly decline!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/12/you_want_to_see_what_deflation.html Velocity
More amazing charts and VELOCITY explanation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/the-velocity-factor/
HUMPTEY DUMPTEY END OF AN ERA OF EXCESS
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/togdp-totalcreditdebt
STEEPER DROP THEN PREVIOUS BEAR OR ON RECORD
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m1
If those in charge dont understand the problem, how can they fix it?
D
Friday, February 13, 2009
LIST OF FINANCIAL DESTRUCTION
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/09/15/business/20080916-treemap-graphic.html
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
BY flooding system with TWERP money is not going to put Humptey Dumptey back on the wall. A WORLDWIDE CONTAGION won't allow one or the other to pick the other one's up. HOW will CHINA goose their economy with US consumers and pals around the world cutting back and losing jobs? How do you clear out the ENORMOUS inventory of unsold and foreclosed homes when 100,000's are losing their jobs and the remaining have NO CONFIDENCE?
D
Thursday, February 12, 2009
"THE COMING ECONOMIC DEPRESSION" ? AND WHY
*(Nouriel Roubini says to avert worst case scenario, GOV must do EVERYTHING 100% right...)
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Below please find the link to what I believe tells the most accurate story of what has happened, what will unfold and why.
I run a retail business and I can tell you, the level of business has fallen below what I would categorize a Recession. You will not find this read an easy one, but if you want answers, if want to understand the HISTORIC events now unfolding you WILL READ IT.
As much as I want to believe the STIM PLAN is our saviour, I rather doubt it. The truth is not going to be told to the American people, and probably those responsable will get a pass. Hank Paulson already gave out $350 Billion and all the promises of oversight were just lip service. SO Wells Fargo used Tarp money NOT TO LEND but to buy Wachovia Bank and on top of that got a $25B tax break....but I digress.
*OH PS Isn't our national debt near $8 Trillion and of that over $6 Trillion is INTEREST PAYMENTS? So you see how paying INterest DIVERTS otherwise productive capital AWAY from our economy.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf Armstrong Economics
Posted: Feb 10 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 10, 2009 at 12:47 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear Friends,
Read this and you need not read any more ever, anywhere.
Save the file linked below. Each time you need me to hold your hand read this first. You will no longer need me.
I have in chapter and verse outlined to you what is coming and why.
This article is a maximus opus in line and verse, outlined in time and form and absolutely correct in content.
I met Mr. Armstrong in the early 80s. I know his story better than most. This is a man who has been persecuted for his knowledge. He is a modern day Livermore. Armstrong is the only true genius in finance. No one can qualify to tie his shoes.
He was incarcerated because of his talent by an all but now forgotten jurist. The why is forgotten. All that is remembered is someone’s belief he cost the IRS a large chunk of money.
Duratek
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
VOLUME ALERT
Todays volume was ROBUST and it came with a nasty 90% down volume day making the odds of further weakness more than likely. Maybe look for some kind of snap back rally but I dont think it will have any teeth....more and more it looks like THE lows are begging to be tested
D
D
ROUBINI SAW FINANCIAL CRISIS COMING
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1027496846&play=1
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan what should we do now?
d
JUST A SPEED BUMP
By Tim Graham (Bio Archive)January 14, 2009 - 18:07 ET
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
The network evening shows didn’t have much of an appetite for Democratic hypocrisy among the team they hailed as a "superstar Cabinet" on Tuesday night. Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, a man who would oversee the IRS, failed to pay $42,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes -- and waited to pay more than half of that amount – $26,000 – only after Obama decided to nominate him. On top of that, one of Geithner’s household employees failed to renew her green card.
Only ABC mentioned Geithner in their introductions, and featured no report, just an interview with George Stephanopoulos, who said it was a mere "speed bump" and "fairly common." CBS and NBC spent little more than a minute on Geithner, and NBC’s screen featured the Obama team’s claim in quotes. Under Geithner’s picture were the words "Honest Mistakes
THE RESPONSABLE LEAD THE IRRESPONABLES
Irresponsable lending policies by the banks, and an easy money policy by the FED, no SEC safeguarding with an historic expansion of credit and debt, much of to whom was not viable for the loans and a leveraged economy built on a house of cards has gone BUST, and as crazy as it sounds, it must be allowed to deleverage and unwind and values are trying to decline to a true market value which is sustainable.
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
We either have a true market system where the market sets the prices or we continue with a warped manipulated version where the FED continues to f'up and the GOV decides it can fix all problems.
No matter what is said, every time a CATASTROPHE happens GOV blows it way out of proportion and uses it to further its aims AKA PATRIOT ACT, INVASION of IRAQ etc.
Now as masquerading as STIM plan we have wealth redistribution and social spending and much will be permanent.
$25B was GIVEN by the leech Paulson to WELLS FARGO, and did they use it to loan to those in need? NO they used it to BUY WACOVIA and dbl the size of the bank off our $%%@# backs!
On top of that Paulson SNUCK in a provision that also gives WELLS a $25 B tax breaK!!!!! AND HOW IN THE HECK was it allowed (FEAR FACTOR AGAIN!) that $350B was flitted away and no one can tell where it went or how it was used, in fact PAulson had SO MUCH POWER he told the banks I dont care what you do with it! GREAT POLICY
Tax evader Geithner will tell us how its going to be dif now today. Isnt he the same monkey that was a FED GOV when all this was going on?
NOW HEAR THIS, if you take out the money PULLED from homes last 5 years or so we basically would not have had an economy......so we RAPED our homes as ATM machines....all that happened in front of THEIR eyes was not only allowed but encouraged.
And out of control speculation and an EXPLOSION of DERIVATIVES was left unchecked.....and now what is on FED balance sheet? How much DEBT has and is going to be incurred by the bankrupt US GOV?
DO you know it is reported we already OVERPAID $78Billion for assets they bought which was said to be great investment? JUST LIKE IRAQUI OIL WOULD PAY FOR WAR?
Here bend over and pick up that soap please......
D
Sunday, February 08, 2009
MARKET GETTING A WEDGIE?
*As always click to enlarge http://www.baresearch.com/education/technical_analysis/chart_patterns/continuation/rising_wedge.php source of explanation
D
FORK IN THE ROAD OR STICK A FORK IN IT
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy Competing stimulus plans or game of musical chairs?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396564199658919.html ANY language teacher loves Alan Abelosn's prose....titled "MISSION IMPOSSIBLE" a look into our current predicament.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html Are we destined for something far worse than the avg Recession?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396566284858963.html Let the market DIGEST the stimulus plan.....expect a vote by next Tuesday, and it is usuallythe day after an event you get the true market reaction.
When NEW DEBTS are PROPPED UP with OLD DEBTS and not allowed to default....ALL the debts become unpayable.....NOBODY at the helm knows what to do, they won't talk to those who do.....the numbnuts at the hweel are not like the HERO pilot who saved lives flying into the Hudson......NO at the wheel is the dude on the Titanic...
D
Friday, February 06, 2009
CATTLE PROD STIM BEAR TRAP
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm notice how last weeks got REVISED WITH ADDT'L 50K lost jobs! what good is todays figure showing 3 decade high lost jobs?
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Go ahead PASS a bill that doesn't stim, bad bank whatever.......more and more people realize something STINKS...we dont stay stupid forever. half the numb numbs dont even get past the first few pages....
D
Thursday, February 05, 2009
ANIMAL SPIRITS
If tech shows "animal spirits" CSCO rather dour news, Chambers can pump it up with the best, but when obvious he comes clean. STIM is NO STIM, DEM's not giving an inch, REPUB's not getting much say cept lip service...a failed bill that doesn't stim for an economy on last gasp needing REAL STIM...not a good cocktail
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
EWT seems wrong AGAIN about gold, so one mans wave rad is another mans tsunami wipe out
The credit goosing machine is dead, IPO's went sterile snip snip....there is no capex expansion but contraction of spending on all fronts cept FED and GOV....with NO vehicle to feed the animal spirit my ONLY question is from WHAT LOW do we finally recover from........and in the END how can all the US $$$$ printing of historic proportions be healthy for the ultimate destination of its value.
AM JOBLESS CLAIMS LEAP 41,000 to 626,000 and somehow the BLS gives us a larger than expected productivity # !
Duratek....a light in a sea of chaos
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
SCUM OF THE EARTH
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100181150 Madoff's brother?
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
WHAT GOOD is a GOV agency like SEC if handed to them on platter was MADOFF as early as 2000 and they ignored it?
Madoff whistle blower http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100242196
INTERESTING READ....http://www.vtcommons.org/files/Dystopians.pdf (thanks Mike P)
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
DILUTION PARADE
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SanDisk Corp. slid in premarket trading Tuesday after the maker of flash memory cards posted a larger-than-expected fourth-quarter loss, said it expects 2009 to be challenging and that it may sell stock to raise cash.
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Motorola loses $3.6B, suspends dividend, CFO exits- There goes dividend, is buying divie paying stocks safe?
ATLANTA (AP) -- UPS Inc., the world's largest shipping carrier, said Tuesday it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $254 million. It also said it is freezing management salaries and suspending its match for its employee 401(k) plans as sales slid 5.2 percent, and its chief warned that 2009 will be very difficult because "the consumer is not spending."
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm SLOWLY improving
My hunch is SPX 840-850 will be KEY resistance to any rally
D
Monday, February 02, 2009
WHO IS BEHIND THE CURTAIN
February 1, 2009
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Fed lends two trillion without oversight
ANP: Will Congressman Alan Grayson be able to shed a light on the Fed's secret spending?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3220 FED NOT TELLING ALL OR MUCH AS TO WHERE THE FRICKEN MONEY IS GOING OR WENT.
And do you wonder why we are all so screwed? We got another Obama guy as tax evader?
D
Sunday, February 01, 2009
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS TAKING US DOWN A DARK ROAD
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/creditbubblebulletin?art_id=10184 Scroll down to his ending summary INFLATIONISM THE BANE OF CAPITALISM. Doug Noland is one of the smartest writers on this subject and helps you to understand what is wrong with current approach. It isn't even the hair of the dog that bit you, current thinking is so wrong it is not funny. Here we go again, it is the job of the FED and GOV to reflate asset markets rather than do the things that help build HEALTHY STABLE ECONOMIES.
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm The featured wrong way gurus Noland refers to, read their newest wrong way rants here, self serving no doubt too. When will these idiots be seen for what they are?
THE OTHER GUYS 'AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS" Here is a website for thier views.
http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Here's what THEY have done to Money Base just since SEPT of 2008!!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf and to what effect?
These wrong way bungleheads, old ADM and now the NEW HOPE ADM will never get it right, will never seek Austrian advice, will never tell the truth, will never pay the bill....it's always PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT GUY ECONOMICS WE DONT WANT TO FEEL THE PAIN WE INFLICTED ON OURSELVES.
Is it ANY wonder the DOW sits here limp wristed at 8000 ? DOUG NOLAND'S will shed a light and it is up to you to spread the word and decide what to do about it.
I have warned for years about our current plight, this is what I do to try and help people avoid disaster, I am not as much so the profiteer.
If you dont OWN an opinion on your OWN financial situation one will be handed to you. It is worth your effort, and I continue to keep my mind open and increase my own knowledge and abilities through research and technical analysis. It is a matter of survival.
Duratek
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