http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf CHART of one view of money base. you can see what has been done in the name of prop job or revival attempts.
The US $$ has PLUNGED below 80.00 again, and I think this time it doesn't bounce back and is one reason GOLD is SOARING back to near its alltime highs.
New Home sales from briefing.com
New home sales for April didn't live up to expectations as they checked in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 units (consensus 360,000). April sales were up 0.3% from the March level, which was revised lower to 351,000 from 356,000, but were down 34% year-over-year.
On a regional basis, sales were flat month-to-month in the Northeast and Midwest, up 1.9% in the South, and down -3.8% in the West. The median sales price increased 3.7% from March to $209,700, yet that was still 14.9% below the median sales price in April 2008.
The inventory of unsold homes continued to get worked down as it stood at 297,000 units versus 310,000 units in March. Factoring for the current sales pace, that left the supply of unsold homes at 10.1 months versus 10.6 months in March.
The new home sales report for April fits in with the view that things are stabilizing. The three-month average for January-March was 347,000. Still, it is a sobering reminder that new home sales are a long, long way from being considered robust. To that point, they were running at an annual rate of 887,000 in April 2007.
*Stabilizing and getting better.....job losses and jobs created are 2 very different animals.
For NO apparent reason one of my salespeople had his credit card RATE go UP......above 22% apr.
GDP is adjusted todat at 8:30 http://briefing.com/Investor/Index.htm go to Calendar...sub economic to get details if interested.
from this months contraryinvestor please follow link a super read.
"Maybe more than any other headline credit market indicator of the moment we believe Fed actions have distorted what used to be the prior “risk based” message of LIBOR. And that cuts right to the conceptual heart of government intervention. Just how the heck can the private sector assess risk and allocate capital correctly and efficiently when the Fed/Treasury/Administration is acting to help “misprice” assets and risk measures?
In our eyes, there will be no true recovery in the economy and capital markets until risk is being priced appropriately and all risks are known (the issue of transparency). Make no mistake about it, the decline in LIBOR is not a result of credit market healing and the lessening of risk perceptions. It’s a result of the Fed TAF. And so once again, how do they step away from this intervention?"
"The following chart comes to us directly from our wonderful friends at the Fed. Looking at the Fed balance sheet, they now own close to 15% of total US commercial paper outstanding. You can see that commercial paper outstanding in all categories continues to contract. This is not a picture of a recovering or vibrant credit market. Not by a long shot."
My friends, I am not on this blog to share things to perk you up, I mean if I SEE good things I will report them, it is NOT in my nature to always be so DOUR! What I am doing is telling it like it IS. And if not too late trying to protect you from disaster. Those with me since I began may appreciate this.
The FED is PROPPING up the market, we are a ZOMBIE NATION.
Duratek
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
PAIN IN THE MEMBRANE or SHOW ME THE BEEF
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite all the hand-wringing and attempts to contain the foreclosure plague, the problem still spread during the first three months of 2009, as the number of foreclosure actions started hit a record high, according to a quarterly report.
The National Delinquency Survey released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), reported the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in foreclosure starts since it began keeping records in 1972. Lenders initiated foreclosures on 1.37% of all first mortgages during the quarter, a 27% increase from the 1.08% rate during the last three months of 2008 and a 36% rise from the first quarter of 2008. All told, more than 616,000 mortgages were hit with foreclosure actions.
Delinquencies, the stage in which borrowers have fallen behind on payments but have not yet received foreclosure notices, also hit record highs, with the seasonally adjusted rate at 9.12% of all loans, up from 7.88% last quarter.
"Now the ball is in the Federal Reserve's court, as they could step up the pace of their bond buybacks in an effort to reverse some of this week's increase," the report said. (this is what I had been saying.....boy the FED can do it all)
Even as mortgage rates continue to rise, they still remain much lower than last year, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.20%, according to Bankrate.com.
Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
Bank lending has slowed, but securities issuance has fallen off a cliff.
The government hopes to restore lending via cheap financing. Skeptics say programs aimed at restarting the market haven't worked yet.
The government has responded with programs such as the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, which aims to spur asset-backed lending. But there are few signs that these efforts are succeeding in restoring the health of markets that collapsed in 2007 after years of breakneck growth.
Developers say they are confident the administration and Congress understand that they need more help.
D
The National Delinquency Survey released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), reported the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in foreclosure starts since it began keeping records in 1972. Lenders initiated foreclosures on 1.37% of all first mortgages during the quarter, a 27% increase from the 1.08% rate during the last three months of 2008 and a 36% rise from the first quarter of 2008. All told, more than 616,000 mortgages were hit with foreclosure actions.
Delinquencies, the stage in which borrowers have fallen behind on payments but have not yet received foreclosure notices, also hit record highs, with the seasonally adjusted rate at 9.12% of all loans, up from 7.88% last quarter.
"Now the ball is in the Federal Reserve's court, as they could step up the pace of their bond buybacks in an effort to reverse some of this week's increase," the report said. (this is what I had been saying.....boy the FED can do it all)
Even as mortgage rates continue to rise, they still remain much lower than last year, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.20%, according to Bankrate.com.
Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
Bank lending has slowed, but securities issuance has fallen off a cliff.
The government hopes to restore lending via cheap financing. Skeptics say programs aimed at restarting the market haven't worked yet.
The government has responded with programs such as the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, which aims to spur asset-backed lending. But there are few signs that these efforts are succeeding in restoring the health of markets that collapsed in 2007 after years of breakneck growth.
Developers say they are confident the administration and Congress understand that they need more help.
D
Thusday Market Wrap
Well, well......isn't this interesting. Down one day, up the next, down up down up.....called a trading range...light volume.....end game sill ST in doubt.
My AM post showed what THIN premise the excitement was over, and the GM annoucement was no shocker. Well that didn't initially rally market, but if sellers aren't quite ready to step up, market can float higher, I didn't see super demand here either.
I AM seeing momentum divergences and my charts have me on a daily MACD sell signal. I still think this resolves in a downard break and after flushing Trillions at this shithole mess.....those that B......may be trying to keep this thing propped.....rigged maybe it is......how long can it last...this flight from reality.
Do you realize that since the FED'S existance, in JUST ONE YEAR we have DOUBLED the MONEY supply that EVER EXISTED......in 12 f%$@ months....what do you think of that?
The things you could give a hoot about are going DOWN in price....you know the stupidass JOS A BANK style of marketing....I'm still waiting for 4 suits price of one...then Im there.....of ocurse I dont wear those neck stranglers that I got.
Can you PRINT your way to prosperity? "Market sighs of relief......FED BOND auction went well....fear of higher rates subsiding....let's rally" GIVE ME A BREAK.....they are buying their onw crappy paper....a loan is made. money is created, bond is issued, then they buy it back! haa
WHO WANTS this crappy paper? IF the reserve currency was let's say the RUPEE.....would you want to be holding this toilet paper KNOWING they just printed DOUBLE the amount in existance in hust 12 months? what should that make your RUPEE in your pocket worth? ABout as worth as a 90 yr old man who has run out of Viagra....
These bankers, the FED (NOT sanctioned by gov) getting fat......sucking us dry like a leech or tick.
It's time for AMericans to WAKE UP....DEMAND CHANGE. WE OWE $99 TRILLION promised out in entitlements etc.....NEVER be able to pay up ever.
OBAMA'S plan for green energy jobs may be just more hogwash
GARY NORTH PIECE On LEW ROCKWELL SITE Deep Recession HUge Scandal
"This was big. Huge. Gigantic. The story has escalated for two weeks. But why? I think it's the economy. It's getting worse, despite assurances by politicians around the world that the recovery is near, the bottom is near, and the public should not panic. "
*WHO speaks for us, the average American that doesn't like what he or she is seeing or hearing? My friends, no one is. A $1.8 Trillion deficit doesn't even sound like a real number to most, and the avg person does NOT comprehend what is going on.
SO much has been destroyed by this last bubble and how do the people in charge try to fix it?
By DOUBLING THE MONEY SUPPLY.....inflating the problem away? havent we tried this already? look where it got us.
The economy is doubled over like it ate a carton of pure OLESTRA....there ain't enough toilet paper available to wipe its ass.
Duratek
My AM post showed what THIN premise the excitement was over, and the GM annoucement was no shocker. Well that didn't initially rally market, but if sellers aren't quite ready to step up, market can float higher, I didn't see super demand here either.
I AM seeing momentum divergences and my charts have me on a daily MACD sell signal. I still think this resolves in a downard break and after flushing Trillions at this shithole mess.....those that B......may be trying to keep this thing propped.....rigged maybe it is......how long can it last...this flight from reality.
Do you realize that since the FED'S existance, in JUST ONE YEAR we have DOUBLED the MONEY supply that EVER EXISTED......in 12 f%$@ months....what do you think of that?
The things you could give a hoot about are going DOWN in price....you know the stupidass JOS A BANK style of marketing....I'm still waiting for 4 suits price of one...then Im there.....of ocurse I dont wear those neck stranglers that I got.
Can you PRINT your way to prosperity? "Market sighs of relief......FED BOND auction went well....fear of higher rates subsiding....let's rally" GIVE ME A BREAK.....they are buying their onw crappy paper....a loan is made. money is created, bond is issued, then they buy it back! haa
WHO WANTS this crappy paper? IF the reserve currency was let's say the RUPEE.....would you want to be holding this toilet paper KNOWING they just printed DOUBLE the amount in existance in hust 12 months? what should that make your RUPEE in your pocket worth? ABout as worth as a 90 yr old man who has run out of Viagra....
These bankers, the FED (NOT sanctioned by gov) getting fat......sucking us dry like a leech or tick.
It's time for AMericans to WAKE UP....DEMAND CHANGE. WE OWE $99 TRILLION promised out in entitlements etc.....NEVER be able to pay up ever.
OBAMA'S plan for green energy jobs may be just more hogwash
GARY NORTH PIECE On LEW ROCKWELL SITE Deep Recession HUge Scandal
"This was big. Huge. Gigantic. The story has escalated for two weeks. But why? I think it's the economy. It's getting worse, despite assurances by politicians around the world that the recovery is near, the bottom is near, and the public should not panic. "
*WHO speaks for us, the average American that doesn't like what he or she is seeing or hearing? My friends, no one is. A $1.8 Trillion deficit doesn't even sound like a real number to most, and the avg person does NOT comprehend what is going on.
SO much has been destroyed by this last bubble and how do the people in charge try to fix it?
By DOUBLING THE MONEY SUPPLY.....inflating the problem away? havent we tried this already? look where it got us.
The economy is doubled over like it ate a carton of pure OLESTRA....there ain't enough toilet paper available to wipe its ass.
Duratek
YOU SAY POTATO....I SAY PATATOE!
New home sales for April didn't live up to expectations as they checked in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 units (consensus 360,000). April sales were up 0.3% from the March level, which was revised lower to 351,000 from 356,000, but were down 34% year-over-year.
Initial jobless claims drop unexpectedly
(SHOUT IT FROM THE ROOFTOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Initial jobless claims drop, but continuing claims at record high; demand up for durable goods
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The tally of newly laid-off Americans requesting jobless benefits fell last week, the government said Thursday, a sign that companies are cutting fewer workers.
But the number of workers continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 6.78 million -- the largest total on records dating back to 1967 and the 17th straight record week. The figures for continuing claims lag behind initial claims by one week.
The Labor Department said the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to a seasonally adjusted 623,000, from a revised figure of 636,000 in the previous week. It was below analysts' estimates of 635,000
**WHEN you add back what they f’d up from last week it came in AS expected…HORRIBLE how can ANYTHING positive be taken from 600K PLUS losses??? How many jobs lost now in this R?
**In a separate report, the government said demand for big-ticket manufactured goods soared by the largest amount in 16 months in April, the second increase in the past three months. New orders have risen in two of the past three months, which may be signaling that the deep recession in manufacturing is bottoming out.
My friends WHAT is it they are buying? GUNS and AMMO?
Duratek
Initial jobless claims drop unexpectedly
(SHOUT IT FROM THE ROOFTOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Initial jobless claims drop, but continuing claims at record high; demand up for durable goods
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The tally of newly laid-off Americans requesting jobless benefits fell last week, the government said Thursday, a sign that companies are cutting fewer workers.
But the number of workers continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 6.78 million -- the largest total on records dating back to 1967 and the 17th straight record week. The figures for continuing claims lag behind initial claims by one week.
The Labor Department said the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to a seasonally adjusted 623,000, from a revised figure of 636,000 in the previous week. It was below analysts' estimates of 635,000
**WHEN you add back what they f’d up from last week it came in AS expected…HORRIBLE how can ANYTHING positive be taken from 600K PLUS losses??? How many jobs lost now in this R?
**In a separate report, the government said demand for big-ticket manufactured goods soared by the largest amount in 16 months in April, the second increase in the past three months. New orders have risen in two of the past three months, which may be signaling that the deep recession in manufacturing is bottoming out.
My friends WHAT is it they are buying? GUNS and AMMO?
Duratek
AM POST AND BS DATA
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm Come on , LOOK at the revised #'s NOT even close to what was reported....this is PURE BS! HOW do they get away with it? SO what use is todays RISE in Durables? useless!
STILL OVER 600K in job losses...OMG record for CONTINUING...this IS the news. probably worse than reported. COSTCO even falls short. WHI is left to buy these foreclosed homes? LONG RATES are shooting up...are these the green shoots? HAS FED LOST CONTROL of the curve?
One of my manufacturers is now requiring a 50% DEPOSIT with all large orders....squeeze til I pop
D
STILL OVER 600K in job losses...OMG record for CONTINUING...this IS the news. probably worse than reported. COSTCO even falls short. WHI is left to buy these foreclosed homes? LONG RATES are shooting up...are these the green shoots? HAS FED LOST CONTROL of the curve?
One of my manufacturers is now requiring a 50% DEPOSIT with all large orders....squeeze til I pop
D
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
VERY TROUBLING CHART! YIELDS BREAK OUT
Note in DEC is when FED said they would "monitize" the debt . My DXD in money nicely,,,,staying course for now, may move stops up....mkt still being coy....
D
FDIC RUNNING DRY < Henry Blodget says "worst is over for US economy"
As the FDIC has had to step in to take over more and more insolvent banks, the fund has dwindled to dangerously low levels. At the same time, the number of problem banks continues to grow at a rapid pace.
At the end of the first quarter there were 305 'problem institutions' with a total of $220.0 billion in assets, up from 252 institutions and $159.4 billion in assets at the end of 2008. At the end of the quarter, the Deposit insurance fund was at just $13.0 billion, or 0.27% of insured deposits, a decline of 24.7% in the quarter alone.
Worst is OVER I only wish it true.
Or is it getting worse? Interest rates EXPLODED upwards today.....where is that safe haven?
D
At the end of the first quarter there were 305 'problem institutions' with a total of $220.0 billion in assets, up from 252 institutions and $159.4 billion in assets at the end of 2008. At the end of the quarter, the Deposit insurance fund was at just $13.0 billion, or 0.27% of insured deposits, a decline of 24.7% in the quarter alone.
Worst is OVER I only wish it true.
Or is it getting worse? Interest rates EXPLODED upwards today.....where is that safe haven?
D
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Rise of the Zombies
From Pariah to Most Desired: Banks Raising Billions But Faith May Be Misplaced
Posted May 11, 2009 10:38am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: JPM, WFC, BBT, COF, KEY, USB, XLF
Capital One, BB&T, KeyCorp. and US Bancorp on Monday joined the veritable conga line of banks raising capital and planning to repay TARP with the proceeds. The stock and debt offerings come in the wake of Friday's stress tests results and seem to secure the financial sector's two-month transformation from pariah to most desirable.
The fact banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs in addition to the aforementioned, are able to raise money from private sources is an unalloyed positive. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner deserves major kudos for navigating the stress-test course with great success and aplomb, at least to date. Investors are understandably flocking to the financials because the market (not to mention the government) is sending a very strong message about their solvency and stability.
However, we can't help think investments made in many of these investments banks will come back to haunt the buyers - maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, but eventually - for the following key reasons:
How stressful were the stress tests? As discussed here (and elsewhere), the stress tests were not particularly stressful in terms of assumptions about the economy or compared with the past "nuclear winter" tests that Fannie and Freddie were said to have passed (before being declared insolvent.)
Everything is negotiable: The WSJ details how the banks pushed back against the government's initial capital requirements. Some back and forth is fine and just but how the government changed its original determination that Citigroup needed to raise $35 billion to a mere $5.5 billion is a head-scratcher that requires additional investigation (or the total suspension of disbelief.) Similarly, The FT reports the government is letting bank count future earnings against current capital needs, which would seem to be an invitation for some mark-to-market accounting magic in the coming quarters.
Rise of the Zombies: Amid all the hubbub about the stress tests, the bottom line is the banks are still saddled with tons of toxic debt, and nothing that's occurred so far changes that reality. So how is what we're doing materially different from what Japan did with its problem banks back in the 1990s? Meanwhile, the number and type of bad loans continue to rise and U.S. banks are, understandably, wary about lending money in the current economic environment.
Posted May 11, 2009 10:38am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: JPM, WFC, BBT, COF, KEY, USB, XLF
Capital One, BB&T, KeyCorp. and US Bancorp on Monday joined the veritable conga line of banks raising capital and planning to repay TARP with the proceeds. The stock and debt offerings come in the wake of Friday's stress tests results and seem to secure the financial sector's two-month transformation from pariah to most desirable.
The fact banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs in addition to the aforementioned, are able to raise money from private sources is an unalloyed positive. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner deserves major kudos for navigating the stress-test course with great success and aplomb, at least to date. Investors are understandably flocking to the financials because the market (not to mention the government) is sending a very strong message about their solvency and stability.
However, we can't help think investments made in many of these investments banks will come back to haunt the buyers - maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, but eventually - for the following key reasons:
How stressful were the stress tests? As discussed here (and elsewhere), the stress tests were not particularly stressful in terms of assumptions about the economy or compared with the past "nuclear winter" tests that Fannie and Freddie were said to have passed (before being declared insolvent.)
Everything is negotiable: The WSJ details how the banks pushed back against the government's initial capital requirements. Some back and forth is fine and just but how the government changed its original determination that Citigroup needed to raise $35 billion to a mere $5.5 billion is a head-scratcher that requires additional investigation (or the total suspension of disbelief.) Similarly, The FT reports the government is letting bank count future earnings against current capital needs, which would seem to be an invitation for some mark-to-market accounting magic in the coming quarters.
Rise of the Zombies: Amid all the hubbub about the stress tests, the bottom line is the banks are still saddled with tons of toxic debt, and nothing that's occurred so far changes that reality. So how is what we're doing materially different from what Japan did with its problem banks back in the 1990s? Meanwhile, the number and type of bad loans continue to rise and U.S. banks are, understandably, wary about lending money in the current economic environment.
Monday, May 11, 2009
PRICES PULLBACK
Jury may be out, but it appears we will get more thanone day pullback in prices. Todays down volume was83% of total volume so that is considered substantial. How this develops should tell us a lot about what may lie ahead.
I think we will get through this, but smoothe sailing I don't think so from here. A lot of properties have just begun to be dealt with, renegotiating lonas with banks by cutting principal etc, well banks may be open to it.....but it could take years and years...and WHO qualifies? How will the people paying their mortgage living next door feel? They owe full amount.
ANd we need for someone other than the GOV to hire workers. The ONE TIME 70,000 GOV census takers are glad to be hired, and it kept the # below 600,000....if it aint there next report....those betting it goes even lower may be rudely awakened.
D
I think we will get through this, but smoothe sailing I don't think so from here. A lot of properties have just begun to be dealt with, renegotiating lonas with banks by cutting principal etc, well banks may be open to it.....but it could take years and years...and WHO qualifies? How will the people paying their mortgage living next door feel? They owe full amount.
ANd we need for someone other than the GOV to hire workers. The ONE TIME 70,000 GOV census takers are glad to be hired, and it kept the # below 600,000....if it aint there next report....those betting it goes even lower may be rudely awakened.
D
Sunday, May 10, 2009
"INFLATION IS THEFT"
There is no conscience in politics. Economic policies may be changed, reformed, and readjusted because they are ineffective, unproductive, and unpopular, but rarely ever because they are immoral. Debt may be a grievous bondage to an honorable man, but it may be a “national bond” which, in President Roosevelt’s words, “is owed not only by the nation but also to the nation.” Surely, politicians have a code of laws to observe and obey, but honesty in matters of debt and money is not one of them.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/sennholz6.html "Inflation IS Theft" 2005
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm TOTAL DEBT UPDATED
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/sennholz6.html "Inflation IS Theft" 2005
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/nat-debt/debt-nat.htm TOTAL DEBT UPDATED
Saturday, May 09, 2009
"TRANSFER OF WEALTH FROM TAXPAYERS TO BANKS"
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/244222/%22The-Greatest-Boondoggle-in-History%22-Banks-Buoyed-at-Taxpayers
BEND OVER AMERICA
While much of the focus is on the stress tests and banks' efforts to raise cash, the real story is Geithner's Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), says William Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City.
The PPIP is the "greatest boondoggle in the history of the world," says Black, a former bank regulator who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L crisis. As occurred during the S&L era, Black says the PPIP will allow banks to exchange "trash for cash" and turn "real losses into faulty gains."
If the goal of Tim Geithner and other regulators was "to rip off the American taxpayer for the benefit of the least-deserving wealthiest people you can imagine, well - mission accomplished," Black says.
If can't beat them join them?
D
BEND OVER AMERICA
While much of the focus is on the stress tests and banks' efforts to raise cash, the real story is Geithner's Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), says William Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City.
The PPIP is the "greatest boondoggle in the history of the world," says Black, a former bank regulator who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L crisis. As occurred during the S&L era, Black says the PPIP will allow banks to exchange "trash for cash" and turn "real losses into faulty gains."
If the goal of Tim Geithner and other regulators was "to rip off the American taxpayer for the benefit of the least-deserving wealthiest people you can imagine, well - mission accomplished," Black says.
If can't beat them join them?
D
IS US $$ HEADED FOR TEST OF 80.00? She looks broken
Higher yields, broken dollar, higher gold....foiling FED manipulation?
AMERICAN BANKER
http://www.americanbanker.com/ offering free trial. SOme important well done banking sector stories here.
Friday, May 08, 2009
SWENLIN ON WEDGE
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0508.html BAsically a call that, well nothing is 100% but likely we are close to resolution here, more than likely to downside.
Swenlin seems to think this will be brief and rally will then continue.....figure attack of 200 EMA at least.
One of the stronger bear mkt rallys Ive ever witnessed, but for now still IN a bear market. Nothing is for certain, but IF a NEW BULL MKT has commensed....there should be plenty of time to enjnoy the rise, though early on is the most dramatic. This would surprise me to some end, but some of my TA pointed to the possibility, I could never confirm it. And there are missing components that would make this one of a kind.
D
Swenlin seems to think this will be brief and rally will then continue.....figure attack of 200 EMA at least.
One of the stronger bear mkt rallys Ive ever witnessed, but for now still IN a bear market. Nothing is for certain, but IF a NEW BULL MKT has commensed....there should be plenty of time to enjnoy the rise, though early on is the most dramatic. This would surprise me to some end, but some of my TA pointed to the possibility, I could never confirm it. And there are missing components that would make this one of a kind.
D
AM DATA
UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO 8.9% (from 8.5%)
Previous data was revised down addt'l 30,000 !
Todays number of 553,000 will be trumpeted as WONDERFUL, a SURPRISE....BETER THAN EXPECTED.......there are 75,000 GOV jobs in here some temp for "CENSUS".
Take out these temp census GOV jobs (is private sector improving?) and you get another horrible number of 628,000....add back the 30,000 that somehow SLIPPED by last report and you get 658,000.
I smell something unsavory....call me not impressed.....wages FALLING....jobs in delcine.....home values tanked, banks STIFF on lending......demand for credit plunged......but we're in recovery?
D
Previous data was revised down addt'l 30,000 !
Todays number of 553,000 will be trumpeted as WONDERFUL, a SURPRISE....BETER THAN EXPECTED.......there are 75,000 GOV jobs in here some temp for "CENSUS".
Take out these temp census GOV jobs (is private sector improving?) and you get another horrible number of 628,000....add back the 30,000 that somehow SLIPPED by last report and you get 658,000.
I smell something unsavory....call me not impressed.....wages FALLING....jobs in delcine.....home values tanked, banks STIFF on lending......demand for credit plunged......but we're in recovery?
D
US DOLAR INDEX CRACKING and ALT A LOANS
Currently AM 83.60BDI at Resistance http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Bank Stress tests that instead of market value for paper the BANK sets the value.....this is what was given to "regulators" to make their ASSumptions....thought you'd like to know.
ALT A LOANS
Subprime (bad credit mortgage) loans have certainly been generating a lot of attention, and worry, among investors, economists and regulators, but those loans may be only part of the threat posed to the housing market by risky lending.
Some experts in the field are now concerned about the so-called Alt-A mortgage loan market, which has grown even faster than the market for subprime mortgage loans to borrowers with less than top credit.
Alt-A refers to people with better credit scores (A-credit) who borrow with little or no verification of income - so-called alternative documentation.
But some people in the industry call them “stated income” loans, or worse, “liar loans.” And these almost no-doc loans were an important part of the record real estate boom of 2004 and 2005 that has recently shown signs of turning into a bust.
Standard & Poor’s estimates that the Alt-A market has gone from less than $20 billion in home loans in the fourth quarter of 2003 to more than $100 billion in each of the last three quarters.
Overall, new Alt-A mortgage transactions totaled $386 billion in 2006, according S&P’s estimates - up a drastic 28 percent from 2005.
By comparison, bad credit home loans reached a whopping $640 billion in 2006, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.
WE ARE BEING SET UP WITH STRESS TESTS AND GOV IS LOSING ALL CRED.
Beware ALT -A
Could it be we've just entered the second half of the credit crisis?
Just as 2008 was the year of subprime woes, this one will go down as the year of Option ARM resets (or adjustable rate mortgage resets). With billions in Option ARMs resets in 2009 and 2010, this crisis is about to unleash a fury no one's prepared for.
It won't be as bad as subprime, of course. It'll be worse.
WHat is ocurring now my friends is an attempt to use the MEDIA, propaganda, lies and misrepresentation and cheerleaders to PROP up the paper assets STOCK MKT and HOUSING........be careful out there.
D
Thursday, May 07, 2009
WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMERICA?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York resigned Thursday, days after coming under attack for his continuing involvement in a company regulated by the institution.
Stephen Friedman received a waiver to remain on the board of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), the Wall Street firm that became a bank holding company amid September's financial frenzy, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Monday. He also holds a substantial amount of shares in the company and continued to buy more even after Goldman came under the Fed's supervision.
DAMN them all......who is looking out for the little guys?....I told you it doesn't matter what party, or who's in power....the rich get richer...the connected stay connected...WTF gave this idiot a "waiver"?
I'm telling you, THEY are stealing us blind, us the taxpayer has been lied to, cheated...and SOLD OUT to the banks, the same one who screwed us....still screwing us!
D
Stephen Friedman received a waiver to remain on the board of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), the Wall Street firm that became a bank holding company amid September's financial frenzy, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Monday. He also holds a substantial amount of shares in the company and continued to buy more even after Goldman came under the Fed's supervision.
DAMN them all......who is looking out for the little guys?....I told you it doesn't matter what party, or who's in power....the rich get richer...the connected stay connected...WTF gave this idiot a "waiver"?
I'm telling you, THEY are stealing us blind, us the taxpayer has been lied to, cheated...and SOLD OUT to the banks, the same one who screwed us....still screwing us!
D
WEDGIE IN PLAY, WOOL OVER WHO'S EYES? NEWS UNFIT TO PRINT
*AGAIN PLEASE click ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE
Auction of bonds ...well it didn't go so swell.....
"The auction is big news because now it's showing that maybe the Chinese don't want our bonds. If the cost of capital for the United States becomes more expensive, then the recession is going to take that much longer to get out of," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.
"Mortgage rates will go higher, which will make it less attractive to buy a home again. So, it's back where we started."
The U.S. government's plans to help finance its burgeoning budget deficit with more longer-term debt ran into trouble on Thursday with a dismal reception for its sale of 30-year long bonds.
The $14 billion auction met below-average demand from investors, who bid aggressively to force the government to pay a higher yield.
and so will FLOODING the planet with worthless paper.... BUT ex BEAR Jeremy Grantham thinks stocks can "go to the moon" into end of year......."stocks are more senitive to stimulus than economy".....maybe he's right......and then he goes on to tell enjoy it while it lasts, after that's over a decade of pain.....FWIW
and this PLAEEEZE..been leaking news out for days!!!!! who's in Grant's tomb a better kept secret.
The results of government stress tests on the ability of the 19 largest banks to weather a deep recession will be released at 5 p.m. and are expected to show about half of the banks need more capital.
CSCO reported last night, hyped as it was....stock was up in AH, the NAZ sank today, when CSCO can't move the NAZ..usually trouble for tech.
PAL (N American Paladium) has FINALLY woken up and has spurted higher from $1 base....
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer borrowing plunged in March at the fastest pace in 18 years as Americans put away their credit cards and hoarded cash amid the worst recession in decades.
*But other reports were trying to make you believe consumers had risen from the dead......is that what you read into that?
The Commerce Department last week said that the personal savings rate edged up to 4.2 percent in March, marking the first time in a decade that the savings rate has been above 4 percent for three straight months.
Households have been spending less and saving more as they seek to replenish nest eggs in the face of massive job layoffs.
C
C
onsumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity, fell 0.2 percent in March, ending an otherwise strong quarter. Consumer spending grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter, according to government data.
OH boy stress test results at 5PM...they already leaked most of the stuff....does it really matter what they say? it's the reaction in the markets.
D
NOT A JOKE
OUT OF ONE SIDE OF MOUTH
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama is citing a host of government programs for budget cuts, saying that "these savings, large and small, add up."
The president went before the cameras Thursday to discuss his proposal for roughly 120 budget cuts totaling $17 billion — a sum that would be only about one-half of 1 percent of the $3.4 trillion budget that Congress has approved for next year. (LOL!!!!)
He said he's entrusting budget director Peter Orszag to follow through with the cuts. But there already have been indications that he'll meet some resistance in Congress.
Obama acknowledged that "none of this will be easy." But he said he's determined to cut in half the projected budget deficit in half within four years.
OUT OF OTHER SIDE OF MOUTH
WASHINGTON (AP) — In twin strokes, President Barack Obama is calling on Congress to award generous budget increases to domestic programs while proposing relatively modest cuts to wasteful or obsolete programs that just won't seem to die.
Obama's promised line-by-line scrub of the federal budget has produced a roster of 121 budget cuts totaling $17 billion — or about one-half of 1 percent of the $3.4 trillion budget Congress has approved for next year. The details were unveiled Thursday.
White House budget director Peter Orszag said the president's plan for program cuts is just a start and that a lot more needs to be done to dig the government out of its fiscal hole, especially curbing the growth of the Medicare and Medicaid health care programs for the elderly and the poor.
"But $17 billion a year is not chump change by anyone's accounting," he said. (REALLY?)
Those savings are far exceeded by a phone-book-sized volume detailing Obama's generous increases for domestic programs that will accompany the call for cuts.
And instead of devoting the savings to defray record deficits, the White House is funneling them back into other programs.
Friends do you see how we are so screwed?
D
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama is citing a host of government programs for budget cuts, saying that "these savings, large and small, add up."
The president went before the cameras Thursday to discuss his proposal for roughly 120 budget cuts totaling $17 billion — a sum that would be only about one-half of 1 percent of the $3.4 trillion budget that Congress has approved for next year. (LOL!!!!)
He said he's entrusting budget director Peter Orszag to follow through with the cuts. But there already have been indications that he'll meet some resistance in Congress.
Obama acknowledged that "none of this will be easy." But he said he's determined to cut in half the projected budget deficit in half within four years.
OUT OF OTHER SIDE OF MOUTH
WASHINGTON (AP) — In twin strokes, President Barack Obama is calling on Congress to award generous budget increases to domestic programs while proposing relatively modest cuts to wasteful or obsolete programs that just won't seem to die.
Obama's promised line-by-line scrub of the federal budget has produced a roster of 121 budget cuts totaling $17 billion — or about one-half of 1 percent of the $3.4 trillion budget Congress has approved for next year. The details were unveiled Thursday.
White House budget director Peter Orszag said the president's plan for program cuts is just a start and that a lot more needs to be done to dig the government out of its fiscal hole, especially curbing the growth of the Medicare and Medicaid health care programs for the elderly and the poor.
"But $17 billion a year is not chump change by anyone's accounting," he said. (REALLY?)
Those savings are far exceeded by a phone-book-sized volume detailing Obama's generous increases for domestic programs that will accompany the call for cuts.
And instead of devoting the savings to defray record deficits, the White House is funneling them back into other programs.
Friends do you see how we are so screwed?
D
CLAIMS AM DATA
The improving trend in initial claims supports the claim that the pace of layoffs is slowing. Unfortunately, the pace of hiring isn't picking up.With employment considered a lagging indicator, though, the improving trend in initial claims is apt to take precedence for the market, which has embraced the idea that the economy has bottomed out.
Anyone else cheering this data? Can we claim the worst is over? Personally I would pray so....continuing claims continue their upward march.....we arent even close to 300,000 per month...then we cheer.
With pomp hype and cicumstance we could see the 200 EMA's in play....will "smart" money who made EASY money cash out or continue to ride this thing? Will that fabled "sideline" cash feel left out and rush into an overbought market?
D
TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT as % OF GDP back to 1920's
*always click to enlarge charts
Relevant to my long previous post this AM....here is debt as % of GDP going back to last Depression.....look where we are in this cycle! Can a trip back to THE NORM be halted from these EXTREMES?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/07/news/economy/warren_report/index.htm?postversion=2009050703 "CREDIT CRUNCH ALIVE AND WELL!" This does NOT jive with mamoth rally IMHO
D
HEADED DOWN THE SLIPPERY SLOPE AND GOV ROPE-A-DOPE
http://american-armageddon.espacioblog.com/post/2009/03/28/the-debt-binge-consumer-debt-outstanding-and-total-us-debt-and This IS an IMPORTANT READ, please take time to understand what you are looking at.
You can see the "long term averages" and you can SEE where we were at in 1980 the last setup for the GREATEST ECONOMIC BOOM IN HISTORY, the stat of the longest running BULL MKT in history.
Here is ANOTHER IMPORTANT READ.....if you want to understand it will take a huge effort to disect and sift thru the good, bad, ugly and pure BS.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/ Both sides presented.
"I think America's in this retail deep freeze," Beemer said. "I think we're going to see it go on for months and months and months."
Meanwhile, only 24.2% of consumers said they feel they have extra cash in their paychecks due to the U.S. government stimulus package, while 73.7 % said they did not.
The stimulus package includes a tax credit that will be paid to many workers in the form of less withholding tax taken out of paychecks, though at $400 annually for single workers, that amounts to only $7.69 a week.
The survey was conducted May 1 through May 3.
The survey was conducted May 1 through May 3.
WHAT we have is MINIMAL GOV STIMULUS that is effecting the REAL ECONOMY and REAL PEOPLE....what we do got (great English huh?) is expanding GOV and EXPANDING BAILOUTS that DO NOT go directly into the REAL ECONOMY where the BLEEP it is needed!!!!
WHat happens when the GOV spending is increasing at an alarmingly high rate and the economy is SHRINKING by about as much? GOV tax reciepts are WAY DOWN.....so we have a GOV and FED (boy look at their balance sheet now) that is trying to PRINT and TALK their way out of this mess.....the GOV is trying to create the economy....but what it is doing is STARVING it from being able to recover and it is sucking the available monies right away from those also needing it.
I have all my monies in a TREASURY MONEY MARKET (basic MM's are NOT INSURED) and I am basically getting NO INTEREST....NADA!
REAL economies grow from INVESTMENT and MANUFACTURING, and it takes the money from SAVINGS......in a world where the need for monies for DEBT are so dramatic.....the demand so immense; how can interest rates be sitting so low? (though off THE LOWS)
New paper is printed to buy the old paper......WTF is that? OBAMA has taken the BUSH spending batton and out it on steroids......the GOV is competing with the private sector for credit and winning.
WHY isn't our GOV living within its means as we have to? YOU got A coming in you dont spend B to the infinty power.
How do th ebanks out of thin air be declared SOLVENT when the huge amount of paper issued at price X is now in the shitter? SO allowing the honest BANKERS to tell us what that crappy paper is now worth and all of a sudden they show huge profits?
IS THAT SO? hasnt some of the major profit drivers of the banking system been destroyed? IS it off consumer loans? corporate loans? mergers and aquisitions? IPO's? then what?
What is happening now is ANOTHER attempt to REFLATE deflating assets....real estate, stock markets....how? printing it to health.
WHat you can do is not buy into the myth and get OUT OF DEBT PAY IT DOWN....get LIQUID as possible.....try to ride this out.
If Banks arent loaning monies from savings of depositors what then?
My friends we need investment in the PRIVATE ECONOMY, NOT THE GOVERNMENT which is getting bigger, and invading our COnstitutional rights and lives by the minute.
The FED GOV has promised, guaranteed, bailed out equivalent to 89% of our total GDP!
Should we actually recover.....IMHO an INFLATION of extroadianry proportions awaits us.....but DEFLATION is the enemy now.
In 1930 the TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT was 265% of GDP, we rose to 350% this time around......the object is to HEAL and RETURN to the norm....man we couldn't be farther away!
And like I said....just pulled this off
White House: Obama seeks hike in domestic spending- AP
In twin strokes, President Barack Obama is calling on Congress to award generous budget increases to domestic programs while proposing relatively modest cuts to wasteful or obsolete programs that just won't seem to die.
In twin strokes, President Barack Obama is calling on Congress to award generous budget increases to domestic programs while proposing relatively modest cuts to wasteful or obsolete programs that just won't seem to die.
Give the money to the PEOPLE MAN....let US decide where to spend it!
Duratek
STRESS TESTS
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-stress-tests-show-some-apf-15161516.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
= crock of pooo.
What are the value of the paper they hold if it isn't marked to market? WOULD they say ANYTHING negative which would cause a panic? pure BS!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable?source=hp_mostpopular rally sustainable?
D
= crock of pooo.
What are the value of the paper they hold if it isn't marked to market? WOULD they say ANYTHING negative which would cause a panic? pure BS!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable?source=hp_mostpopular rally sustainable?
D
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
BEARISH RISNG WEDGIE?
IT GOT TO BREAK ONE WAY OR ANOTHER SOON!CSCO earnings off 24% after close...but beats street HAA. Same old game
Markets are still in bearish config, and it's approaching the 200 EMA (exponential moving avg)
which is normally good resistance for any rally.....sure it can pop over it.....but this rally is getting long IMHO come a long way.
STRESS TESTS (sure) and FRI employment numbers ......if you care to beleive them..
D
CURRENT BDI CHART
Does not validate US STOCK RALLY IMHO. WHERE IS the pick up in raw material demand to make THINGS?
D
D
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
BERNANKE SQUEAKS
BIG BEN TO RESCUE BALD MF
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country's financial health since the recession struck with force last year.
But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation's unemployment rate and causing "further sizable job losses" in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee. **another 2 sided mouth conversation, friends,what does he see that we dont see? KNowing thathe didnt see THIS coming (EBOLI ECONOMY) and LIED months into it...."this wont leak into economy,,,its contained"
WHY believe this connected insider now? Here's your rally and recovery you paid for out of this air..
D
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country's financial health since the recession struck with force last year.
But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation's unemployment rate and causing "further sizable job losses" in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee. **another 2 sided mouth conversation, friends,what does he see that we dont see? KNowing thathe didnt see THIS coming (EBOLI ECONOMY) and LIED months into it...."this wont leak into economy,,,its contained"
WHY believe this connected insider now? Here's your rally and recovery you paid for out of this air..
D
OUT OF WOODS YET?
Oil lingers above $54 on economic recovery hopes (not on demand P/u but on HOPES)
HUGE SWISS BANKS SAYS WORLD ECONOMY CONTINUES TO "WORSEN"
UBS 'cautious' after $1.7 billion loss
Swiss bank says outlook for the firm is cloudy as global economy continues to worsen.
ZURICH (Reuters) -- UBS remained wary on its immediate outlook as it braced for the full impact of the recession after confirming it had posted a first quarter loss on yet more writedowns and client withdrawals.
Despite a strong rebound in stock markets in recent weeks, UBS (UBS) said the global economy has continued to deteriorate and its home market Switzerland will not be spared. The Swiss economy is set to contract by up to 3% this year.
"The markets continue to be unsettled, and we remain cautious on the immediate outlook for UBS," the world's largest wealth manager said in a statement.
Services data AM and Thursday will be?
Banks: The financial sector will remain in focus as investors await the release of the results of the U.S. government's so-called stress tests on banks, which are due out Thursday.
At least 10 of the 19 big banks under review -- including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) -- may need to boost their capital, according to published reports.
Although, the number of reported banks that may need to boost their capital requirements has been fluctuating in the run up to the release of the results.
I will repeat, we are still in a BEAR MKT, and when the trend reasserts itself, MANY will be caught offguard and taken down with it.
D
HUGE SWISS BANKS SAYS WORLD ECONOMY CONTINUES TO "WORSEN"
UBS 'cautious' after $1.7 billion loss
Swiss bank says outlook for the firm is cloudy as global economy continues to worsen.
ZURICH (Reuters) -- UBS remained wary on its immediate outlook as it braced for the full impact of the recession after confirming it had posted a first quarter loss on yet more writedowns and client withdrawals.
Despite a strong rebound in stock markets in recent weeks, UBS (UBS) said the global economy has continued to deteriorate and its home market Switzerland will not be spared. The Swiss economy is set to contract by up to 3% this year.
"The markets continue to be unsettled, and we remain cautious on the immediate outlook for UBS," the world's largest wealth manager said in a statement.
Services data AM and Thursday will be?
Banks: The financial sector will remain in focus as investors await the release of the results of the U.S. government's so-called stress tests on banks, which are due out Thursday.
At least 10 of the 19 big banks under review -- including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) -- may need to boost their capital, according to published reports.
Although, the number of reported banks that may need to boost their capital requirements has been fluctuating in the run up to the release of the results.
I will repeat, we are still in a BEAR MKT, and when the trend reasserts itself, MANY will be caught offguard and taken down with it.
D
Monday, May 04, 2009
SOME CHARTS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p94532429432
Notice during BULL CCi can stay overbought for a year....but during BEAR MKT past and this one notice what HAS happened when CCI weekly reached area its at now.....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95359378420&a=147023883 this one measures fear/price....see my annotations. MACD wants to signal ,aybe its over at same time ratio has come right back to that channel underside....curious. dbl bottom at 16 was hint of ST bottoming.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78179678834&a=158245127
a move to 200 EMA not unusual. LAST ONE BEARISH RISING WEDGE? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29735166432&a=166742532 still intact...breaking up and over nullifies it....so odd when you see price stop like that.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CYC:$CMR&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74150163626&a=147023766 this sector (buillish?) has had monster move. D
Notice during BULL CCi can stay overbought for a year....but during BEAR MKT past and this one notice what HAS happened when CCI weekly reached area its at now.....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95359378420&a=147023883 this one measures fear/price....see my annotations. MACD wants to signal ,aybe its over at same time ratio has come right back to that channel underside....curious. dbl bottom at 16 was hint of ST bottoming.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78179678834&a=158245127
a move to 200 EMA not unusual. LAST ONE BEARISH RISING WEDGE? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29735166432&a=166742532 still intact...breaking up and over nullifies it....so odd when you see price stop like that.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CYC:$CMR&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74150163626&a=147023766 this sector (buillish?) has had monster move. D
Sunday, May 03, 2009
IS THE WORST OVER?
EVERY major end to THE BEAR and SEEDS of economic recovery in the past (I am aware of) has been with the ability to GOOSE,JUMP START AND GROW CREDIT EXPANSION......is it different this time?
The ability to do so has been SO impaired, what we have witnessed from 660 SPX has been short covering....I mean the little guy has been short cicuited or unemployed.
401K contributions and wall street bonuses have been decimated. Ability to draw value from your home near eliminated.
Tightening credit standards have excluded MANY from new money.
Credit cards are chock full.
Mark to mkt end has only put a vail over REAL MKT VALUE.
ALt A loans not in mix nor talked about in MEDIA. Commercial loan defaults JUST beginning their turn at ugly cycle putting MORE stress on banks.
Consumer sentiment may have risen with rally, but it IS coming from lowest point in history.
Stock Market has never proven it knows anything. The economy began to weaken in 1998 yet mkt highs were in 2000.
It is ALL about credit/debt expansion to what 350% of GDP total credit market debt (290% in 1930) in the past when this has POPPED it RETURNS US to MEDIAN trend.....what is current TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT? I think still over 300%.
If not THE bottom, what kind of bottom? DID THE SPX PE's OR DIV yields reach levels seen at prior MAJOR CYCLE BOTTOMS? NO
ALL BOTTOMS GET TESTED? usually....dont ya think this one will? 2nd MOUSE here if enterring with more gusto will be unltimate winner.
NO QUESTION...my thinking was failed and masked by my own BIZ experience of despair....had I had only game face on.....SNDK at $5 HNI at $7 DOW and friends under $10 were NO BRAINER TRADES. UYG near $1 a no brainer. There is BIG talk of recovery...I ask you why then UYG under April highs, but supported by 50 EMA and do I see another wedge?
The ability to do so has been SO impaired, what we have witnessed from 660 SPX has been short covering....I mean the little guy has been short cicuited or unemployed.
401K contributions and wall street bonuses have been decimated. Ability to draw value from your home near eliminated.
Tightening credit standards have excluded MANY from new money.
Credit cards are chock full.
Mark to mkt end has only put a vail over REAL MKT VALUE.
ALt A loans not in mix nor talked about in MEDIA. Commercial loan defaults JUST beginning their turn at ugly cycle putting MORE stress on banks.
Consumer sentiment may have risen with rally, but it IS coming from lowest point in history.
Stock Market has never proven it knows anything. The economy began to weaken in 1998 yet mkt highs were in 2000.
It is ALL about credit/debt expansion to what 350% of GDP total credit market debt (290% in 1930) in the past when this has POPPED it RETURNS US to MEDIAN trend.....what is current TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT? I think still over 300%.
If not THE bottom, what kind of bottom? DID THE SPX PE's OR DIV yields reach levels seen at prior MAJOR CYCLE BOTTOMS? NO
ALL BOTTOMS GET TESTED? usually....dont ya think this one will? 2nd MOUSE here if enterring with more gusto will be unltimate winner.
NO QUESTION...my thinking was failed and masked by my own BIZ experience of despair....had I had only game face on.....SNDK at $5 HNI at $7 DOW and friends under $10 were NO BRAINER TRADES. UYG near $1 a no brainer. There is BIG talk of recovery...I ask you why then UYG under April highs, but supported by 50 EMA and do I see another wedge?
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Friday, May 01, 2009
COMPARE MARCH 2009 RALLY WITH 911 RALLY
Notice how 911 rally after capturing 200 EMA was then stopped when approaching it from under right before it began steep decline into 2002 lows, we also had a VIX that fell to below 20!
*click to enlarge
*click to enlarge
D
BEAR MARKET RALLIES
Weekend Commentary
YOU SHOULD keep in mind that recovery rallies that occur during extended bear markets are often very impressive. If the rallies were just run of the mill they would not do their job. These rallies will last just long enough to lure in the most that think the worst is over and they let their guard down.
And when these rallies fizzle, and those that jumped back in deny their is trouble brewing in the air, that's when the PRIMARY BEAR TREND reasserts itself with a vengence.
Folks this is a nasty Bear MArket, values will most likely be driven down to never before seen values, with yields near 6%, and SPX 500 PE ratios in single digits......I am sorry to say I do not think we have gotten to the end, and I know the yields and PE's have not met their goals.
The avg person is not trading these markets, the avg person may be reading my blog along with some seasoned traders, but the avg person has been holding this whole time.
The feverish demand for stocks usually met at bear bottoms has been mostly absent here. I think the rally from MArch is most like the one after the 911 panic subsided. I mean WHAT could be worse than the terrorism and pain we felt after being attacked?
I dont remember, but I do know that rally ended and new LOWER prices came after in OCT 2002. And then again in 2003 we came close to the lows, TESTED and didnt look back.
IMHO at LEAST the lows get tested my friends....at the least.
Our problems are deep and wide. Long TERM int rates manipulated lower, even with threat the FED buys its own Bonds...have only risen since....10 yr back above 3.10 % which means mortgage rates will rise......not what was intended....but we KEEP BORROWING TRILLIONS.......there is no spending control iN GOV....
You ask yourself.....or anyone....how ya doing...is it getting better....are the programs taking hold...fixing the problems?
This is the WORST economy in my 50 yr lifetime.....so I wont presume to know how it ends, or improves....I can say I dont see it yet.....and its PRESERVATION MODE for me
D
YOU SHOULD keep in mind that recovery rallies that occur during extended bear markets are often very impressive. If the rallies were just run of the mill they would not do their job. These rallies will last just long enough to lure in the most that think the worst is over and they let their guard down.
And when these rallies fizzle, and those that jumped back in deny their is trouble brewing in the air, that's when the PRIMARY BEAR TREND reasserts itself with a vengence.
Folks this is a nasty Bear MArket, values will most likely be driven down to never before seen values, with yields near 6%, and SPX 500 PE ratios in single digits......I am sorry to say I do not think we have gotten to the end, and I know the yields and PE's have not met their goals.
The avg person is not trading these markets, the avg person may be reading my blog along with some seasoned traders, but the avg person has been holding this whole time.
The feverish demand for stocks usually met at bear bottoms has been mostly absent here. I think the rally from MArch is most like the one after the 911 panic subsided. I mean WHAT could be worse than the terrorism and pain we felt after being attacked?
I dont remember, but I do know that rally ended and new LOWER prices came after in OCT 2002. And then again in 2003 we came close to the lows, TESTED and didnt look back.
IMHO at LEAST the lows get tested my friends....at the least.
Our problems are deep and wide. Long TERM int rates manipulated lower, even with threat the FED buys its own Bonds...have only risen since....10 yr back above 3.10 % which means mortgage rates will rise......not what was intended....but we KEEP BORROWING TRILLIONS.......there is no spending control iN GOV....
You ask yourself.....or anyone....how ya doing...is it getting better....are the programs taking hold...fixing the problems?
This is the WORST economy in my 50 yr lifetime.....so I wont presume to know how it ends, or improves....I can say I dont see it yet.....and its PRESERVATION MODE for me
D
ZERO HEDGE
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/shooting-shoots.html always a good read
Watch the wedge develop, catching shorts TOO short and way oversold market at MArch lows ignited this. End of mark to market and abuse of the data have fed this, as has the playa's and suspect that important stimulus money is not being loaned but gambled.
D
Watch the wedge develop, catching shorts TOO short and way oversold market at MArch lows ignited this. End of mark to market and abuse of the data have fed this, as has the playa's and suspect that important stimulus money is not being loaned but gambled.
D
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Contrarian Indicator?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/blog-traffic-reading-complacent/ Blog traffic
First 100 days? How aout OVER EXPOSED?
Market at interesting juncture here, I will come up with a decent chart by tomorrow to show what I am lookin gat, take care,
D
First 100 days? How aout OVER EXPOSED?
Market at interesting juncture here, I will come up with a decent chart by tomorrow to show what I am lookin gat, take care,
D
WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS or Baltic Dry INdex and who cares
"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea"
Friends, raw materials is what goes into making THINGS.....the BDI RISES when DEMAND FOR THINGS causes increased purchasing of the stuff to make things.....do YOU see a VAST improvement here?
Baltic Dry isn't a Latvian deodorant or an Estonian cocktail. Rather, it's a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744.
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/ by Daniel Gross
The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.
SPX 200 EMA is around 965 and sure we could carry to there, sure this rally if gotten in early was a money maker......but the jury is still out to if the BEAR has been defeated....IMHO all I can tell is we are bouncing from news driven by the thinnest of premises.I'm in retail and I cant wait to be proven wrong and stubbornly pessimistic.... watch UYG still below recent high near $3.90 and VIX now below 35....
Duratek
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
FED COMMENTS AND GDP
Federal Reserve policymakers said at the end of a two-day meeting Wednesday that while the economy is still receding, the pace of decline "appears to be somewhat slower" than the last time they met in mid-March.
NEW YORK – The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The recession is starting to ease.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent, much steeper than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending (loss of 6M jobs really?), which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a drop in business inventories. (BIZ adds inv when possitive about economy)
"BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
Better-than-expected earnings have been boosting the market as well. Media conglomerate Time Warner Inc. said its first-quarter profit fell 14 percent on deteriorating ad sales, but the results were better than expected.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, which has also received large amounts of federal aid, is trying to figure out how to retain workers. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit has talked with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner about the possibility of paying special bonuses to keep demoralized workers from getting scooped up by competitors, a person familiar with the matter said.
TNX (10 yr note) could be ready to explode its 200 EMA is 31.23 near high of the day....leading to higher int rates. (EOD 30.96)
SPX 200 EMA is 953.80 (EOD 873)
TRANS 200 EMA 3489
I note this rally is coming on declining volume.
UYG (long financials) has yet to really break out. April high is $3.90 (EOD $3.56)
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html Perfect storm series
NEW YORK – The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The recession is starting to ease.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent, much steeper than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending (loss of 6M jobs really?), which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a drop in business inventories. (BIZ adds inv when possitive about economy)
"BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
Better-than-expected earnings have been boosting the market as well. Media conglomerate Time Warner Inc. said its first-quarter profit fell 14 percent on deteriorating ad sales, but the results were better than expected.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, which has also received large amounts of federal aid, is trying to figure out how to retain workers. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit has talked with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner about the possibility of paying special bonuses to keep demoralized workers from getting scooped up by competitors, a person familiar with the matter said.
TNX (10 yr note) could be ready to explode its 200 EMA is 31.23 near high of the day....leading to higher int rates. (EOD 30.96)
SPX 200 EMA is 953.80 (EOD 873)
TRANS 200 EMA 3489
I note this rally is coming on declining volume.
UYG (long financials) has yet to really break out. April high is $3.90 (EOD $3.56)
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html Perfect storm series
GDP DATA THAT SPURS A RALLY? Buyer Beware
Highlights
First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.
The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.
Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.
The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.
Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
SIDEWAYS
CLICK TO ENLARGE CHART*Month of April has consisted of sideways action, so is this digestion of rally or inability to move above Resistance zones and trading area is about to give way?
I think I can safely saythis is bear market rally, what I cannot say 100% is that it is done. But I do have some parameters set up that should tell us soon enough.
FED rah rah meeting is usually bullish to non commital, when done true trend will resume.
D
REASON TO CHEER
Home Prices Post 18.6 Percent Annual Drop in Feb.- AP
A widely watched housing index shows home prices dropped in February, but for the first time in 16 months the decline was not a record.
GOTTA love those silver linings....
D
A widely watched housing index shows home prices dropped in February, but for the first time in 16 months the decline was not a record.
GOTTA love those silver linings....
D
Monday, April 27, 2009
TIME FOR CAUTION
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/technical-indicators-scream-caution.html
The divergences continue as the rally loses steam and gets older and Bird Flu scare aside, the market is ready to retrace at a bear minimum, some of the gains off the lows.
There is SCANT REAL DATA of any uptick in the REAL ECONOMY, lending standards have stiffened, millions have lost jobs and no longer putting into 401K's, IPO's scarce, investment scarce, Gov and FED programs have had little effect.
Many think bear has been put asleep, but I have no technical data, in fact it is much alive. We have yet to challenge the 200 EMA......when this rally fades, see who steps up to plate, sure isnt avg Koe.
D
The divergences continue as the rally loses steam and gets older and Bird Flu scare aside, the market is ready to retrace at a bear minimum, some of the gains off the lows.
There is SCANT REAL DATA of any uptick in the REAL ECONOMY, lending standards have stiffened, millions have lost jobs and no longer putting into 401K's, IPO's scarce, investment scarce, Gov and FED programs have had little effect.
Many think bear has been put asleep, but I have no technical data, in fact it is much alive. We have yet to challenge the 200 EMA......when this rally fades, see who steps up to plate, sure isnt avg Koe.
D
Friday, April 24, 2009
NEW HIGH FOR ADJ M BASE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf more divergences appear in price vs demand.....when it breaks I think the break will be HARD DOWN 870 ish for SPX is R
D
D
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
ACTION JACKSON
Despite todays TRIPLE DIGIT rally, when compared to yesterdays 90% NYSE downer, it was weak.
Usually after a 90% down day you will get a few days of rally, and if today was selective of what is to follow, I do not think the decline is done.
Geithner speaks? big deal. The COVER UP continues.
D
Usually after a 90% down day you will get a few days of rally, and if today was selective of what is to follow, I do not think the decline is done.
Geithner speaks? big deal. The COVER UP continues.
D
MASSIVE COVER UP AND FRAUD
Crimes Suspected In 20 Bailout Cases
Tuesday, April 21, 2009Los Angeles Times
In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.The disclosures reinforce fears that the hastily designed and rapidly changing bailout program run by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve is going to carry a heavy price of fraud against taxpayers -- even as questions grow about its ability to stabilize the nation's financial system.
Barofsky said the complex nature of the bailout program makes it "inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, including significant issues relating to conflicts of interest facing fund managers, collusion between participants, and vulnerabilities to money laundering."The report said little about who is under investigation and how the fraudulent schemes work, but investigators are already on alert for a long list of potential scams. Such schemes could include obtaining bailout money under false pretenses, bilking the government with phony mortgage modifications, and cheating on taxes with fraudulent filings.
Former Bank Regulator Wm Black was interviewed on PBS recently, he says the reason Bank execs have not been replaced is if they did an honest man might try to get to bottom of the issues, abuses and they DON’T WANT THAT!
WHY did $12 B go thought AIG directly to Goldman Sachs? And on top of that GS had a huge SHORT on AIG and got paid for that too!?
How can the banks be reporting “better than expected results recently” prompting CNBC clowns and ADM officials to quip,,,,,” the worse may be over, proof its getting better”
What they forgot to tell people was an NEW accounting change for GS took DEC figures (and they were bad) off the reporting qtr. And now the banks are free to mark their holdings to a value they see fit vs Mark to Mkt. WHY would FASB do away with mark to market acct? Because it would show most banks INSOLVANT as we speak.
NO oversight? Of a TRILLION $$$?? Who is that stupid? OH our elected officials. DIDN’T READ THE DAMN BILL? Who is that stupid or lazy? OH our elected officials.
If the American public doesn’t wake up now when will they and get mad?
Tuesday, April 21, 2009Los Angeles Times
In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.The disclosures reinforce fears that the hastily designed and rapidly changing bailout program run by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve is going to carry a heavy price of fraud against taxpayers -- even as questions grow about its ability to stabilize the nation's financial system.
Barofsky said the complex nature of the bailout program makes it "inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, including significant issues relating to conflicts of interest facing fund managers, collusion between participants, and vulnerabilities to money laundering."The report said little about who is under investigation and how the fraudulent schemes work, but investigators are already on alert for a long list of potential scams. Such schemes could include obtaining bailout money under false pretenses, bilking the government with phony mortgage modifications, and cheating on taxes with fraudulent filings.
Former Bank Regulator Wm Black was interviewed on PBS recently, he says the reason Bank execs have not been replaced is if they did an honest man might try to get to bottom of the issues, abuses and they DON’T WANT THAT!
WHY did $12 B go thought AIG directly to Goldman Sachs? And on top of that GS had a huge SHORT on AIG and got paid for that too!?
How can the banks be reporting “better than expected results recently” prompting CNBC clowns and ADM officials to quip,,,,,” the worse may be over, proof its getting better”
What they forgot to tell people was an NEW accounting change for GS took DEC figures (and they were bad) off the reporting qtr. And now the banks are free to mark their holdings to a value they see fit vs Mark to Mkt. WHY would FASB do away with mark to market acct? Because it would show most banks INSOLVANT as we speak.
NO oversight? Of a TRILLION $$$?? Who is that stupid? OH our elected officials. DIDN’T READ THE DAMN BILL? Who is that stupid or lazy? OH our elected officials.
If the American public doesn’t wake up now when will they and get mad?
Monday, April 20, 2009
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Bank of America Corp. managed to avoid a loss in the first quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations and providing further evidence the banking sector might be improving.
But the bank also took a hefty $13.4 billion provision for loan losses and its shares fell 55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $10.05 in premarket trading.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company earned $2.81 billion after paying preferred dividends, or 44 cents per share, compared with a profit of $1.02 billion, 23 cents per share, in the year ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 4 cents per share.
The higher-than-expected earnings could take some pressure off Chief Executive Ken Lewis who has faced calls from some shareholders to either give up his job as chairman or be ousted.
*good thing mark to mkt is gone.....wow cant beleive a profit.......hmm guess profits arent what they used to be
* Large Corporate Leasing Company (whisper) is going to downsize here......I thought idea was to loosen lending....what gives
D
But the bank also took a hefty $13.4 billion provision for loan losses and its shares fell 55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $10.05 in premarket trading.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company earned $2.81 billion after paying preferred dividends, or 44 cents per share, compared with a profit of $1.02 billion, 23 cents per share, in the year ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 4 cents per share.
The higher-than-expected earnings could take some pressure off Chief Executive Ken Lewis who has faced calls from some shareholders to either give up his job as chairman or be ousted.
*good thing mark to mkt is gone.....wow cant beleive a profit.......hmm guess profits arent what they used to be
* Large Corporate Leasing Company (whisper) is going to downsize here......I thought idea was to loosen lending....what gives
D
Thursday, April 16, 2009
WHERE IS THE SUPPORTIVE DATA?
More Lousy News on Housing *(briefing.com)
Last Update: 16-Apr-09 08:53 ET
Expectations for further glimmers of hope on the housing front took a hit this morning. The March housing data were not pretty.
Starts dropped 10.8% to a 510,000 annual rate from 572,000 in February. The level is not as low as the 488,000 dismal January number, but still the second lowest of this cycle.
The March level is well below expectations of about a 540,000 level and below the three-month average of 539,000 the three prior months.
Housing permits gave no indication of an imminent upturn. Permits fell 9.0% to a 513,000 annual rate. This is the lowest level of the current cycle and below the 547,000 average of the three prior months.
There is no reason not to take the data at face value as an indication that housing remains in a deep slump and that sporadic signs of stabilization have to be viewed with caution.
Last Update: 16-Apr-09 08:53 ET
Expectations for further glimmers of hope on the housing front took a hit this morning. The March housing data were not pretty.
Starts dropped 10.8% to a 510,000 annual rate from 572,000 in February. The level is not as low as the 488,000 dismal January number, but still the second lowest of this cycle.
The March level is well below expectations of about a 540,000 level and below the three-month average of 539,000 the three prior months.
Housing permits gave no indication of an imminent upturn. Permits fell 9.0% to a 513,000 annual rate. This is the lowest level of the current cycle and below the 547,000 average of the three prior months.
There is no reason not to take the data at face value as an indication that housing remains in a deep slump and that sporadic signs of stabilization have to be viewed with caution.
DECAY CONTINUES
Historic real estate failure
The second largest mall owner in the U.S. files for bankruptcy protection. » More than 200 malls
Suicide bomber kills 16 and wounds 50 at base in western Iraq we wont leave as scheduled.
Number of child abuse cases surge as U.S. economy flounders fabric of society crumbling
New jobless claims fall to 610,000; continuing claims hit 6 million good news bad or bad news bad news
BUT I suspect TRADING PROFITS (rally) have led to JPM earnings "surprise"....off we go
D
The second largest mall owner in the U.S. files for bankruptcy protection. » More than 200 malls
Suicide bomber kills 16 and wounds 50 at base in western Iraq we wont leave as scheduled.
Number of child abuse cases surge as U.S. economy flounders fabric of society crumbling
New jobless claims fall to 610,000; continuing claims hit 6 million good news bad or bad news bad news
BUT I suspect TRADING PROFITS (rally) have led to JPM earnings "surprise"....off we go
D
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
WILD EYED OPTIMIST
WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve said Wednesday there are some faint signs the steep plunge in economic activity that began last fall is starting to level off.
The Fed's latest survey of business conditions nationwide found five of its 12 regional banks reporting a moderation in the pace of the economic decline.
Several regions "saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level ... (but) overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said.
The Fed's latest survey of business conditions nationwide found five of its 12 regional banks reporting a moderation in the pace of the economic decline.
Several regions "saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level ... (but) overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said.
5 REASONS GIVEN FOR "LIGHT"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090415/pl_politico/21259 NO HUGE SELLING PUSH has showed up so unless soon....just a correction to rally not officially dead yet
D
D
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
AFTERNOON UPDATE
I have been seeing some divergences on my charts that said rally needed some rest, with Goldman Sachs NEWS out this AM (earnings) the negative tone so far may be worthy of note.
Prices had peeked out of my downtrend channel.....but now have fallen back into that channel.
CNBC and friends continue to trot out the BOTTOM CALLERS...............it ain't gonna be that easy folks......this is the mutha of all bear markets, IMHO
Let's see where prices find footing.....8,000 on DOW seems less important as prices bob up and below.
D
Prices had peeked out of my downtrend channel.....but now have fallen back into that channel.
CNBC and friends continue to trot out the BOTTOM CALLERS...............it ain't gonna be that easy folks......this is the mutha of all bear markets, IMHO
Let's see where prices find footing.....8,000 on DOW seems less important as prices bob up and below.
D
FOCUS ON ECONOMY IS "OUT OF FOCUS?"
I sure hope his "VISION" is a lot sharper than his photo.......but let's ALL heave a big sigh of relief as BEN, little Timmy G and Big O tell us worst is over.....
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday there's been "tentative signs" that the recession may be easing. But he also warned that any hope for a lasting recovery hinges on the government's success in stabilizing shaky financial markets and getting credit to flow more freely again.
BDI AND NEWS ALERT
WEAK recovery still here.CNBC NEWS ALERT..and such a surprise to all of us...."March retail sales shows SURPRISE DECLINE!??"
D
Saturday, April 11, 2009
MASSIVE CONFLICT OF INTEREST AND COVER UP
BILL MOYERS: Yeah. Are you saying that Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of the Treasury, and others in the administration, with the banks, are engaged in a cover up to keep us from knowing what went wrong?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely.
BILL MOYERS: You are.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely, because they are scared to death. All right? They're scared to death of a collapse. They're afraid that if they admit the truth, that many of the large banks are insolvent. They think Americans are a bunch of cowards, and that we'll run screaming to the exits. And we won't rely on deposit insurance. And, by the way, you can rely on deposit insurance. And it's foolishness. All right? Now, it may be worse than that. You can impute more cynical motives. But I think they are sincerely just panicked about, "We just can't let the big banks fail." That's wrong.
BILL MOYERS: But what might happen, at this point, if in fact they keep from us the true health of the banks?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Well, then the banks will, as they did in Japan, either stay enormously weak, or Treasury will be forced to increasingly absurd giveaways of taxpayer money. We've seen how horrific AIG -- and remember, they kept secrets from everyone.
BILL MOYERS: A.I.G. did?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: What we're doing with -- no, Treasury and both administrations. The Bush administration and now the Obama administration kept secret from us what was being done with AIG. AIG was being used secretly to bail out favored banks like UBS and like Goldman Sachs. Secretary Paulson's firm, that he had come from being CEO. It got the largest amount of money. $12.9 billion. And they didn't want us to know that. And it was only Congressional pressure, and not Congressional pressure, by the way, on Geithner, but Congressional pressure on AIG.
Where Congress said, "We will not give you a single penny more unless we know who received the money." And, you know, when he was Treasury Secretary, Paulson created a recommendation group to tell Treasury what they ought to do with AIG. And he put Goldman Sachs on it.
BILL MOYERS: Even though Goldman Sachs had a big vested stake.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive stake. And even though he had just been CEO of Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury Secretary. Now, in most stages in American history, that would be a scandal of such proportions that he wouldn't be allowed in civilized society.
BILL MOYERS: Yeah, like a conflict of interest, it seems.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive conflict of interests.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely.
BILL MOYERS: You are.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely, because they are scared to death. All right? They're scared to death of a collapse. They're afraid that if they admit the truth, that many of the large banks are insolvent. They think Americans are a bunch of cowards, and that we'll run screaming to the exits. And we won't rely on deposit insurance. And, by the way, you can rely on deposit insurance. And it's foolishness. All right? Now, it may be worse than that. You can impute more cynical motives. But I think they are sincerely just panicked about, "We just can't let the big banks fail." That's wrong.
BILL MOYERS: But what might happen, at this point, if in fact they keep from us the true health of the banks?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Well, then the banks will, as they did in Japan, either stay enormously weak, or Treasury will be forced to increasingly absurd giveaways of taxpayer money. We've seen how horrific AIG -- and remember, they kept secrets from everyone.
BILL MOYERS: A.I.G. did?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: What we're doing with -- no, Treasury and both administrations. The Bush administration and now the Obama administration kept secret from us what was being done with AIG. AIG was being used secretly to bail out favored banks like UBS and like Goldman Sachs. Secretary Paulson's firm, that he had come from being CEO. It got the largest amount of money. $12.9 billion. And they didn't want us to know that. And it was only Congressional pressure, and not Congressional pressure, by the way, on Geithner, but Congressional pressure on AIG.
Where Congress said, "We will not give you a single penny more unless we know who received the money." And, you know, when he was Treasury Secretary, Paulson created a recommendation group to tell Treasury what they ought to do with AIG. And he put Goldman Sachs on it.
BILL MOYERS: Even though Goldman Sachs had a big vested stake.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive stake. And even though he had just been CEO of Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury Secretary. Now, in most stages in American history, that would be a scandal of such proportions that he wouldn't be allowed in civilized society.
BILL MOYERS: Yeah, like a conflict of interest, it seems.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive conflict of interests.
MOYER BLACK INTERVIEW....PONZI'S ALL
FRIENDS....TAKE IT ALL IN.....THIS IS YOUR FORUM TO DISCUSS THE NOST HISTORIC CRISIS IN OUR LIFETIMES....THOSE IN CHARGE WERE THE SAME ONES THERE AS IT WAS HAPPENING>>>>THERE IS TRUTH AND THERE IS SMOKE.....THE TRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE AND MAKE YOU MAD!!!!!!!!
D
FRAUD IN OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html INterview by Bill Moyers with William Black.......and you were angry before?
TEA PARTIES coming up......time to stand up and "we're not going to take this anymore" or will things never change?
A BIG RIGGED PONZI SCHEME NOTHING MORE! I'll keep talking about it, I'll keep trying to keep you safe.
HAS THE MKT BOTTOMED? I personally don't think so, nimble traders DO trade the market so off huge oversold 6500 print...if no collapse there, a worthwhile play....maybe some companies have put their lows in....some countries may outperform, the US isn't only investment vehicle.
MOST LOWS get tested.......looking for maybe 2nd mouse.
From DYLAN RATIGAN INTERVIEW
NEW BULL MARKET...OR SUCKERS' RALLY?
Blodget: Last question. You've been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc. So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers' rally?
Ratigan: Suckers' rally. No question. That's not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes... We've gone through a transition where things were getting bad in a freefall, and now they're just getting slowly worse. So it's a transition from jumping out a plane without a parachute, and now, after a year of free-fall, we've pulled the parachute, which feels a hell of a lot better than the freefall... I think we're dealing with a problem that has a few years in it, not a few months.
D
TEA PARTIES coming up......time to stand up and "we're not going to take this anymore" or will things never change?
A BIG RIGGED PONZI SCHEME NOTHING MORE! I'll keep talking about it, I'll keep trying to keep you safe.
HAS THE MKT BOTTOMED? I personally don't think so, nimble traders DO trade the market so off huge oversold 6500 print...if no collapse there, a worthwhile play....maybe some companies have put their lows in....some countries may outperform, the US isn't only investment vehicle.
MOST LOWS get tested.......looking for maybe 2nd mouse.
From DYLAN RATIGAN INTERVIEW
NEW BULL MARKET...OR SUCKERS' RALLY?
Blodget: Last question. You've been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc. So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers' rally?
Ratigan: Suckers' rally. No question. That's not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes... We've gone through a transition where things were getting bad in a freefall, and now they're just getting slowly worse. So it's a transition from jumping out a plane without a parachute, and now, after a year of free-fall, we've pulled the parachute, which feels a hell of a lot better than the freefall... I think we're dealing with a problem that has a few years in it, not a few months.
D
Friday, April 10, 2009
TORI PRAVER
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009_swimsuit/models/tori-praver/ In a world of pain and gloom......there is Tori.....sorry to digress....but Im not all work and no play!!
D
SAT MORNING POST ON FRIDAY
When all else fails.....I was wondering if thru it's normal sources of STIM have the FED resorted to buying directly SPX futures with the funny money? Is not the higher financial prices good for their I mean our investments from the bailout?
The avg JOE is NOT buying.....he is struggling, looking to PULL OUT IRA MONIES to survive and to which would or could put enormous pressure on stock prices as this before had not been done in ANY meaningful manner.....but I think drawing out retirement funds even if as loan to self is escallating in a big way....I have seen it from those in my own company who have inquired to do so.
The greatest credit/debt bubble of ALL TIMES as part of the K wave, most assuredly has burst and I think once we begin the process of credit contraction, intervention in this cycle will be all but impossible.
If the gov is not knowing where ALL the money is flowing, it is safe to expect a portion is going directly into the stock class. HOW DID WFC achieve "RECORD QTR EARNINGS?"
No improvment on the job front, how is it that the "little people" will now run out and spend it up again and purchase homes/debt on top of it all?
Is the FED/GOV setting us up for a now greater bull mkt the world has ever seen, or an implosion of the likes non has ever witnessed. With world demand drying up...US imports collapsing....is it odd car sales in China hit a record?
DID the recent suspension of mark to market acct, further dilute efforts to deal with the pain and confuse the issue of realizing the losses, the values and exactly what the banks hold and their ability to lend? IS there a line at the bank doors for this money?
AS we try to regain our balance from the real estate collapse.....right around the corner is commercial real estate collapse......I wonder if mkt will rally into end of summer.....then realize they got jobbed.Does anyone expect a V shaped recovery here....so far that is what it is....
My good buddy MATTY'S reply, one of the very smart knowledgable people out there.
>>So think of the average hourly union or laborer or person at your work….think how they must be pinched…when you play that out you realize that the BUBBLEVISION people are fucking clueless.
· Unemployment will continue to rise and stay high….many corporations like CAT will not blindly just bring back workers…we will do it more efficiently and smartly with less labor. Shit CAT Joliet still releasing hourly and management Operations headcount…another 26 yesterday and 140 more by mid-May…I expect unemployment to peak at 11-12% with a new floor at 6-7% The days of 5% or under in my humble opinion are GONE. Small businesses will be slow to hire back until they see the evidence it is for real…with a potential for 1% growth average for 3-4 years we will as a nation scrape the bottom and flatline and many will still feel it is a recession albeit we will be growing.
· I believe many will use 401K money to get them through tough times….with over 55% of people in “THE MARKET” they will use any bounce for an opp to regain some money and pull it out. The average American 401K balance is sub $60,000!!!! So who is really RICH HERE??? With an older society and many boomers retiring and devastated over the past 9 months in “THE MARKET” you think they are going to keep their money in “THE MARKET”???
· I no doubt believe that the GOVT is goosing the market…they need to change psychology in a major way and if the DOW was in the 6,000’s you think people would want to go and do anything? The human psyche is BIG IN THIS GAME OF “THE MARKET”; but I believe Russell is correct in that no matter what the government does, the BEAR WILL RUN ITS COURSE IN DUE TIME UNTIL IT HAS KILLED EVERY SHEEPLE OUT THERE.
· This is a traders market for at least 2014….until the market bottoms for good…..INVESTING IS DONE.
· I am really pissed about Obama….this was not the CHANGE I thought and TIMMY G and the CLINTONISTAS in the ECONOMIC area are fleecing the little guy again. THE STRESS TEST IS BS…STRESS TEST THIS! THE BANKS ARE STILL INSOLVENT AND MARK TO MARKET JUST KEEPS THE “ZOMBIE BANKS” ALIVE JUST LIKE IN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY THE PPIP IS JUST ANOTHER WAY TO “DA BOYZ” TO USE LEVERAGE (JUST WHAT WE DON”T NEED), TAKE UNECESSARY RISK AND TRANSFER IT TO YOU AND ME WHO PAY THE TAXES.
· GET GOLD, GET A GUN, and STOCK FOOD UP…I AM NOT BEING DOOM AND GLOOM HERE…THINGS WILL GET WORSE AND THINGS WILL GET REALLY SCREWY OUT THERE….with the ability to protect your family, have eats when there are disruptions and have bullion to protect your portfolio, I believe you will be able to survive it…we are only in the 1st third of this….2010-2013 will make your head spin in my estimation.<<
My ending comments
This is a wonderful TADERS MKT, onemust be able to separate personal experience and emotions to do well…..….…….preserving your stash is OK too.
I mean WHY SCREW the saver, I am a natural saver…..we get nada…..I also hated Bush, but don’t care for direction O is taking us…..take care buddy. This is the 1st REAL rally this bear…..I don’t know where it ends, but do feel 2009 shows us another new low….
Duratek
The avg JOE is NOT buying.....he is struggling, looking to PULL OUT IRA MONIES to survive and to which would or could put enormous pressure on stock prices as this before had not been done in ANY meaningful manner.....but I think drawing out retirement funds even if as loan to self is escallating in a big way....I have seen it from those in my own company who have inquired to do so.
The greatest credit/debt bubble of ALL TIMES as part of the K wave, most assuredly has burst and I think once we begin the process of credit contraction, intervention in this cycle will be all but impossible.
If the gov is not knowing where ALL the money is flowing, it is safe to expect a portion is going directly into the stock class. HOW DID WFC achieve "RECORD QTR EARNINGS?"
No improvment on the job front, how is it that the "little people" will now run out and spend it up again and purchase homes/debt on top of it all?
Is the FED/GOV setting us up for a now greater bull mkt the world has ever seen, or an implosion of the likes non has ever witnessed. With world demand drying up...US imports collapsing....is it odd car sales in China hit a record?
DID the recent suspension of mark to market acct, further dilute efforts to deal with the pain and confuse the issue of realizing the losses, the values and exactly what the banks hold and their ability to lend? IS there a line at the bank doors for this money?
AS we try to regain our balance from the real estate collapse.....right around the corner is commercial real estate collapse......I wonder if mkt will rally into end of summer.....then realize they got jobbed.Does anyone expect a V shaped recovery here....so far that is what it is....
My good buddy MATTY'S reply, one of the very smart knowledgable people out there.
>>So think of the average hourly union or laborer or person at your work….think how they must be pinched…when you play that out you realize that the BUBBLEVISION people are fucking clueless.
· Unemployment will continue to rise and stay high….many corporations like CAT will not blindly just bring back workers…we will do it more efficiently and smartly with less labor. Shit CAT Joliet still releasing hourly and management Operations headcount…another 26 yesterday and 140 more by mid-May…I expect unemployment to peak at 11-12% with a new floor at 6-7% The days of 5% or under in my humble opinion are GONE. Small businesses will be slow to hire back until they see the evidence it is for real…with a potential for 1% growth average for 3-4 years we will as a nation scrape the bottom and flatline and many will still feel it is a recession albeit we will be growing.
· I believe many will use 401K money to get them through tough times….with over 55% of people in “THE MARKET” they will use any bounce for an opp to regain some money and pull it out. The average American 401K balance is sub $60,000!!!! So who is really RICH HERE??? With an older society and many boomers retiring and devastated over the past 9 months in “THE MARKET” you think they are going to keep their money in “THE MARKET”???
· I no doubt believe that the GOVT is goosing the market…they need to change psychology in a major way and if the DOW was in the 6,000’s you think people would want to go and do anything? The human psyche is BIG IN THIS GAME OF “THE MARKET”; but I believe Russell is correct in that no matter what the government does, the BEAR WILL RUN ITS COURSE IN DUE TIME UNTIL IT HAS KILLED EVERY SHEEPLE OUT THERE.
· This is a traders market for at least 2014….until the market bottoms for good…..INVESTING IS DONE.
· I am really pissed about Obama….this was not the CHANGE I thought and TIMMY G and the CLINTONISTAS in the ECONOMIC area are fleecing the little guy again. THE STRESS TEST IS BS…STRESS TEST THIS! THE BANKS ARE STILL INSOLVENT AND MARK TO MARKET JUST KEEPS THE “ZOMBIE BANKS” ALIVE JUST LIKE IN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY THE PPIP IS JUST ANOTHER WAY TO “DA BOYZ” TO USE LEVERAGE (JUST WHAT WE DON”T NEED), TAKE UNECESSARY RISK AND TRANSFER IT TO YOU AND ME WHO PAY THE TAXES.
· GET GOLD, GET A GUN, and STOCK FOOD UP…I AM NOT BEING DOOM AND GLOOM HERE…THINGS WILL GET WORSE AND THINGS WILL GET REALLY SCREWY OUT THERE….with the ability to protect your family, have eats when there are disruptions and have bullion to protect your portfolio, I believe you will be able to survive it…we are only in the 1st third of this….2010-2013 will make your head spin in my estimation.<<
My ending comments
This is a wonderful TADERS MKT, onemust be able to separate personal experience and emotions to do well…..….…….preserving your stash is OK too.
I mean WHY SCREW the saver, I am a natural saver…..we get nada…..I also hated Bush, but don’t care for direction O is taking us…..take care buddy. This is the 1st REAL rally this bear…..I don’t know where it ends, but do feel 2009 shows us another new low….
Duratek
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
TO THE EDGE
*Click to enlarge. Above may show we had wedge breakdown and price has risen back to test that break near SPX 842. VIX has now fallen back to below 39 and is close to showing its hand in its own wedge pattern.
In any Bear you have winners and losers….Banks JPM, CS, And GS all doubled off March lows or better…BAC C languish though off lows….UYG STILL under $3.
Other huge winners I had tracked SNDK, HNI, WFMI, SSO…..this rally could potentially last 4-6 months…. The moves in some of the stocks seem not likely to see those prices again…..and yet if all we had to do is print money for prosperity….why EVER have downturn?
Other huge winners I had tracked SNDK, HNI, WFMI, SSO…..this rally could potentially last 4-6 months…. The moves in some of the stocks seem not likely to see those prices again…..and yet if all we had to do is print money for prosperity….why EVER have downturn?
TRYING to RIG a mkt (ending mark to market and uptick rule etc) eventually will no longer work…….anything possible, did THEY buy more time with historic efforts for THE DAY of reckoning? Or this rally already on borrowed time? VIX has begun to finally falter hear losing 40 and now 39 leaving door open for hope…at what price VIX say bear in monthly hibernation? I think we are DAYS from finding out.
This is easily the best rally since bear began, and so far there is no 100% evidence it is done. IN 200 bear we had a 5-6 month rally after 911 selling. MANY stocks may have already put in their lows, no GUTS no GLORY......6500 even 7000 now shows was worth the gamble....LTBH HERE? eventually yes, I prefer to see TEST of lows.
D
Thursday, April 02, 2009
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS
Factory orders up 1.8 percent in February- AP
Consumer loan delinquencies rise in 4th quarter- AP
Rite Aid 4Q loss almost doubles due to large writedown- AP
World markets surge as US data boost recovery hope
PRIOR FACT ORDERS REVISED DOWN FROM -1.9 to -3.5 that’s puts the AMAZING 1.8% “surprise” in perspective.
World markets are SURGING......huge bear mkt rally continues..approaching 90% plus up volume, so it is what it is.....the road back down when begins will be sickly.....
I will be out of town til next Wed, all take care......bounce from lows WAS worth playing though with tight stops...... I willl reasess position when I return
Of note is the UYG (long financials) not rallied above 50 EMA yet today....and BDI (baltic dry index) has turned DOWN again, shows NO p/U to speak of or nor does it hint it even has a Sharks sense of smell of a new bull or otherwise.
Duratek
Consumer loan delinquencies rise in 4th quarter- AP
Rite Aid 4Q loss almost doubles due to large writedown- AP
World markets surge as US data boost recovery hope
PRIOR FACT ORDERS REVISED DOWN FROM -1.9 to -3.5 that’s puts the AMAZING 1.8% “surprise” in perspective.
World markets are SURGING......huge bear mkt rally continues..approaching 90% plus up volume, so it is what it is.....the road back down when begins will be sickly.....
I will be out of town til next Wed, all take care......bounce from lows WAS worth playing though with tight stops...... I willl reasess position when I return
Of note is the UYG (long financials) not rallied above 50 EMA yet today....and BDI (baltic dry index) has turned DOWN again, shows NO p/U to speak of or nor does it hint it even has a Sharks sense of smell of a new bull or otherwise.
Duratek
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
APRIL FOOLS
The MA'S are supportive of the rally so far. The VIX holds above 40 and some other technical data suggest longer term and IT have not changed, but the rally may not have run out of gas with G20 meeting and hopes of end to "mark to market"....we'll just let the banks price their holdings...today showed strong 84% up volume. But the tragic story of this financial quagmire is far from over IMHO.
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