PEAK PROFITS?

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox  "What if the FED has it all wrong?"

" Today, employment growth remains below 1.5% YoY, a rate insufficient to reduce unemployment. Nominal wages are growing 1.2% while inflation is 1.7% and threatens to accelerate, in large part due to the impact that the Fed's actions are having on commodity prices, particularly oil prices.

The Fed wants to grow employment faster, but jobs don't grow out of thin air. Corporations create jobs when they have the means, they see a need, and there is visibility to commit.

The problem with Bernanke's wealth effect thesis lies with the new reality in America. Income and assets have lately been so significantly redistributed that only a tiny few actually feel a wealth effect from rising equity prices. "

Today on CNBCBS, "expert" came on ans basically said only worry is some short term turbulence, but longer term NO PROBLEMS as the FED has put a price under market and that we "won't see ANY 200 pt delines as long as FED is there.

All the traders know the FED IS THERE, and maybe this guy is right. But I ask the question, where is it in the FED mandate they target the stock market?

There is a YING and and YANG to everything, and it seems obvious to me, the FED policy for what it is costing, is VERY INEFFECTIVE in helping their #1, and #2 mandates.....full employment and price stability as it also relates to the protection of the reserve currency.

Props to Richard Russell http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf who is still writing one of the best letters available, especially for the layman, and is going strong well into his 80's. If there was a HALL OF FAME for this, he surely would be there.

D

HOUSING HAS RECOVERED? SO HAS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ashes-housing-come-back-163611038.html  Claims housing has come back.

A Chartists Perspective on DOW THEORY NON CONFIRM

http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2012/09/dow-theory-gives-warning-can-fed-print.html

FED RICHARD FISHER SPEAKS

http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2012/fs120919.cfm  SEPT 19th

"We can easily conjure up plausible theories as to what we will do when it comes to our next tack or eventually reversing course. The truth, however, is that nobody on the committee, nor on our staffs at the Board of Governors and the 12 Banks, really knows what is holding back the economy. Nobody really knows what will work to get the economy back on course. And nobody—in fact, no central bank anywhere on the planet—has the experience of successfully navigating a return home from the place in which we now find ourselves. No central bank—not, at least, the Federal Reserve—has ever been on this cruise before."

"This much we do know: Our engine room is already flush with $1.6 trillion in excess private bank reserves owned by the banking sector and held by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Trillions more are sitting on the sidelines in corporate coffers. On top of all that, a significant amount of underemployed cash—or fuel for investment—is burning a hole in the pockets of money market funds and other non depository financial operators. This begs the question: Why would the Fed provision to shovel billions in additional liquidity into the economy’s boiler when so much is presently lying fallow?"

The FED's MANDATE:
"As you all know, the Federal Reserve’s mission is mandated by the Congress. It calls for us to steer a monetary course according to a dual mandate—we are charged with maintaining price stability while conducting policy so as to best assist in achieving full employment."

"In the current tumultuous economic sea, facing strong headwinds common in the aftermath of financial crises and balance-sheet recessions, our desired port is increased employment. Certain theories and various hypothetical studies and models tell us that flooding the markets with copious amounts of cheap, plentiful liquidity will lift final demand, both through the “wealth effect” channel and by directly stimulating businesses to expand and hire. And yet from the perspective of my watch station—as I have reported time and again—the very people we wish to stoke consumption and final demand by creating jobs and expanding business fixed investment are not responding to our policy initiatives as well as theory might suggest."

"Surveys of small and medium-size businesses, the wellsprings of job creation, are telling us that nine out of 10 of those businesses are either not interested in borrowing or have no problem accessing cheap financing if they want it. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), for example, makes clear that monetary policy is not on its members’ radar screen of concerns, except that it raises fear among some of future inflationary consequences; the principal concern of the randomly sampled small businesses surveyed by the NFIB is with regulatory and fiscal uncertainty."   "“If your costs of borrowing were to decrease by 25 or more basis points, would this induce you to spend more on job-creating expansion?” The answer from nine out of 10 was No.”

"To be sure, buying in stock will have a positive wealth effect on that company’s shareholders, but putting the equivalent amount of money to work in spending on plant and equipment would put more people back to work more quickly."

Bottom line is, from the FED's horses mouth, current FED policy is not having the desired effect on business, but yet they just announced a scaling up of QE to another new level of historical insanity....as they have PROOF it's not working, not aiding business borrow nor investment...but they keep piling on!

And Fisher also points out, from these uncertain, uncharted waters Bernanke has swam us into.....there is NO SURE WAY TO GET OUT!

D

NEW ERA OF GROWTH AND PROSPERITY?

Exhibit A http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10709

"Deleveraging – the process of unwinding the economic damage wrought from years of excess - will be a quite arduous economic process; one that will commence at some unknown date in the future. Oh, I guess I failed to mention that total (financial and non-financial) Credit ended Q2 at a record $55.031 TN, or 353% of GDP. And Rest of World holdings of our financial assets ended the quarter at a record $19.100 TN, a $3.860 TN increase from the end of 2008. "

Exhibit B

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline

"In 2010, the number of Federal Register pages devoted to proposed new rules broke its previous all-time record for the second consecutive year. It's up by 25% compared to 2008. These regulations alone will impose large costs and create heightened uncertainty for business and especially small business."

So we have world Central Bankers printing money like there's no tomorrow, and it is the OPINION of many letter writers that YOU "have to be in stocks for long term...." BUY NOW AND BUY OFTEN!

It is hard to argue the success of current policies for inflating Risky assets. But the whole idea of Bear Markets and periods of reconciliation are that the preceding excesses are cleansed and we acan start anew, REAL GROWTH, a REAL ECONOMY.

Is it any wonder, while some who come here and post how great the stock mkt is, how I'm missing the boat, is that THEY are missing the point of my blog.....the greater risk IMHO is not understanding the greater issues and what might their impact be at some point.

I can't predict THE TOP or when the TIPPING POINT will arrive, what I am saying is current policies are aimed at one sector, STOCK PRICES, and a WHOLE LOT OF AMMO has been used to gain higher prices, but what has been the EFFECT on the overall economy?

Higher spending, consumption.....and a LOT of it is Gov't, but stock prices back to near record highs has increased Household wealth. Housing prices had been a more stable storehouse for personal wealth until the BUBBLE....again created by reckless FED policy of unusually LOW Interest rates held low for TOO LONG, in the face of OBVIOUS price speculation that only after the crash was anyone complaining.

ALL this money thrown at the core problems? Is creating even MORE and larger dysfunction, and total credit market debt is still near 350% of GDP....for now the DAY OF RECKONING has been pushed back.......looking at these 2 charts, especially the one showing debt in 1929 (we know what happened next) and where we are standing today......DO NOT LOOK DOWN!

Duratek

INCONSISTANCIES

Ever since I started my blog, my goal was to educate, to light a fire under the avg person to try to be in more control of their financial destiny.

Depending on your age, and goals you would perhaps look at your investment future differently. I will make it clear again, my goal is not to give you any advice, and everything I post is just my opinion, and articles posted I share opinions, charts of others.

YOU should not make ant decision based on what I think, of course as any writer would suggest, you should work with a financial advisor, professional and make it clear what your objectives are.

I believe we are in a SECULAR BEAR MKT, so that means over a LONG period of time stocks are in for a rough ride. These long term trends can last longer than you think, some of that depends on how hard OTHER FORCES, like the FED fight the prevailing trend.

ALL a BEAR MKT tries to do is RESET things, return the economy and market to a balance, a natural balance so REAL GROWTH can return and the previous imbalances and speculation, excesses can be healed so we can start anew.

This Bear has been fought like no other, HISTORIC, NEVER BEFORE SEEN measures have been taken by the Gov't and especially the Federal Reserve which has overstepped its mandate.

It IS NORMAL to experience periods (CYCLICAL BULLS) of 3 years or more of counter trend rallies and bullish periods, stocks usually react positively to FED MEASURES.

My personal finances aside, I am VERY CONSERVATIVE, so what I do (which I don't usually publish) may not be for everyone.

One of the MORE difficult things to do is ride the bull, especially while it undergoes a shakeout, draw down...like in early 1998 right before one of the greatest rises in stock wealth ever seen in such a short period of time. FED INDUCES TECH CRAZE...worries over Y2K....1998 crash..but that wasn't sustainable, nor was 2003-2007....each time with more disastrous results.

SO either I am 100% WRONG for worry now, and we have sustainable recovery built on SOUND economic policy......or the mother of all shit will hit the fan based on the level of attack fighting the inevitable reconciliation which will bring us to ground zero and true healing to build again from a sound base.

Duratek

HOUSING LEADS US ECONOMY OUT OF RECESSIONS....EXCEPT THIS TIME!

Housing has led the economy out of every Recession:.......until now. Stocks are what is supposed to lead us out? What is targeted by the FED?

With 30% of US homeowners underwater, all that has been done is keep them indebted, transfer debt to the FED, give Treasuries to the deadbeat Banks, bailing them out, in turn they buy stocks, gold....Fed and govt buy ALL US mortgages....stocks are targeted....manipulated

There is your answer why so many remain unemployed, if the economy dips down again, what tools are left to combat it?

WTF happened to all those m'fers who cheated and were a part of this financial disaster certainly committing felonies against the people?

JUSTICE? NOT ONE TRIAL, NOT ONE CONVICTION.

The Gov't represents the people?

D

TOWER OF BABBLE

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

"If the Fed wanted to "save" housing and not the banks, why not buy mortgages directly from homeowners?"

QE3 AND SOMETHING IS WRONG

Why would OIL and the Transports fall after the QE3 and DOW rise to flat?

D

SOME REALITY TO PONDER

WEAK MANUFACTURING DATA GLOSSED OVER?

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

QE3 BOOST A HOAX?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/steep-slide-oil-prices-shows-070648288.html

Crude oil's biggest drop in two month's this week signals investors are deeply skeptical about whether recent stimulus efforts by global central banks - including last week's announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of a third round of quantitative easing - will have a meaningful impact on restoring growth, analysts and traders told CNBC.

The positive effect of the Fed's much-awaited stimulus announced last week wore off more quickly than many thought in the oil markets, which are considered a leading indicator of future economic activity.
"The oil market is telling us there is not much faith in another round of QE," said John Licata, Chief Energy Strategist for Blue Phoenix Inc., an independent energy research and consulting company.

QE3 WILL WORK?

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10707

US IN RECESSION NOW?

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26926/ecris-lakshman-achuthan-says-us-in-recession-now-that-makes-three-of-us

BEARISH BROADENING MEGAPHONE TOP SPX 1550 STILL IN PLAY?

WE NOW HAVE A BOOM?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc-faber-were-bernanke-resign-104243316.html

"Central bankers are "counterfeit money printers" and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for messing up the U.S. economy so badly, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom, told CNBC on Friday.
He said Bernanke was one of the main proponents of an ultra-expansionist economic monetary policy that was to blame for the latest financial crisis.
"If I had messed up as badly as Bernanke I would for sure resign. The mandate of the Fed to boost asset prices and thereby create wealth is ludicrous - it doesn't work that way. It's a temporary boost followed by a crash," Faber said."

ANother Headline/story

World Stocks Jump on Fed Pledge for U.S. Economy

AP
World stock markets bounded higher Friday after investors got just what they wanted — big moves by the Federal Reserve to help the U.S. economy out of its funk. More »

Problem is, this move creates asset bubbles, moves stocks, does LITTLE or NOTHING for job creation....I Love a bull mkt like the next guy..I'd rather see people get jobs and a sustainable recovery.

Ask yourself this WHY WOULD THE TARGET THE STOCK MKT NEAR ITS HIGHS?

D

FUNNY HOW WHEN ECONOMY FALLS SHORT IT"S ALWAYS "UNEXPECTED"

• 

  Consumer Credit Falls Unexpectedly in July ReutersConsumer credit fell in July for the first time in nearly a year as Americans reduced credit card debt, a worrisome sign for the economy.

I've said it once, if I have to say it 1,000 X's, Investors are set for a FLEECING.

D

SURE, MORE QE PLEASE, BUT

Can the Fed Suprise Markets Without Disapppointing Them?

Breakout
The minutes may have been stale, the Jackson Hole speech uncertain, but the August payrolls report last Friday was crystal clear in its warning on jobs.

**Problem is, preserve some jobs? Maybe....CREATE LOTS OF JOBS? NO. QE has one purpose and only one purpose, to goose stock markets. While in and of itself not a bad thing in the short term, this is CRACK, artificial sweetner.....and it WILL LEAVE a bitter after taste

D

CRACK ADDICT

US Gov't guarantees EVERY mortgage, this CRACK cannot be taken away or that market falls apart, is that healthy?

FED has lowered Bank rates to basically 0%, this in turn lowers mortgage rates to historical lows, now after 4 years of this CRACK, can they afford to ever let rates rise?

Savers get 0% on MM savings, this CRACK leads to a BAD TRIP. MARKET is addicted to CRACK rates at 0%. Take it away and the addict will foam at the mouth.

What all this does, is embolden the RISK TAKERS, create worse imbalances, and makes for a pretty lopsided trade. SHORTS serve a purpose, they bring balance and sometimes FUEL for rally....ECB move last week was to BURN shorts, stem EURO weakness.....supply CRACK to the addict.....now maybe this buys time as Doug points out in the previous piece posted, but it only ADDS to the lopsided PUT on the market and rates......each time the addict needs MORE and STRONGER CRACK.....we are nearing the law of diminishing returns.

WHEN CRACK IS SUPPLIED, YOU  can't take it away, certainly not suddenly, How do you ease out of a MULTI TRILLION FIX?

My friends, and JACK (my bullish needler), all I want is BALANCE restored, you don't reach sustained economic activity with CRACK, you get it with balance and not with ONLY supporting the risk markets and rewarding wild speculation.

As I said, the FED and ECB have been chasing everyone out of the POOL, and onto the same side of the BOAT....my vision is of the TITANIC.

As in previous attempts to NOT allow the economy to HEAL without excessive intervention...AKA tech bubble, Housing Bubble.....Tulips and on and on.....2 MEN DRAGHI and BERNANKE seem to hold the WORLD in the palm of their hands, that my friends is a SCAREY thought indeed. That's a lot of power between just 2 men.....what if their assinine experiment goes wrong? EVERY BUBBLE in history POPS.....and my thinking is what is perculating now is GOV't DEBT....the biggest bubble of them all.

IT is being MISPRICED, risk is because of all the intervention and manipulation, it just will end badly....I'm afraid.

Already you see how this HISTORIC CRACK is passing by the very economy it is said to benefit, how IRONIC....yet these....2 men persist....more and  MORE of the same...NO TURNING BACK NOW>

D

"DIVERGING LIKE IT'S 1929" Doug Noland

"Importantly, traditional rules and analysis no longer apply. Monetary policy has been locked in super ultra-loose mode now entering an unprecedented fifth year. Here in the U.S., financial conditions can’t get meaningfully looser. The Federal Reserve has pushed corporate and household borrowing costs to record lows. Liquidity abundance will ensure near-record 2012 corporate debt issuance. “Loose money” has already had too long a period to impact decision making throughout the economy – with decidedly unimpressive results. Arguably, previous unfathomable monetary measures some time ago created dependencies and addictions that are increasingly difficult to satisfy."
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10705

5 years of EASY money policies with unimpressive economic results. Unemployment goes down as job seekers give up in droves. What more can be done? A most noted wise man once said taxing is not the answer its the government spending that is the problem.

Year after year, the US must borrow $1Trillion plus, we now owe over $16 TRILLION, and what happens is near 70% of the gov't budget is used to pay JUST the interest on the debt. This is NON PRODUCTIVE.

We are LOCKED into a war in Afghanistan that President Obama is too stupid to figure out cannot be won, costing precious lives and gobs of money. Did he forget to look up the Soviet's experience? or anyone who has tried to roll over that country.

What DOug's essay goes into detail is to try to explain that now the US and WORLD eonomies (and stock markets)  are addicted to QE like a CRACK ADDICT.

The direction and gains in world indices are in stark contrast to what feet see on the ground.

Only one of 2 things can happen, a CRASH in the stock market, or a ROUSING revival of world economies, which will it be?

Duratek

CALL ME CRAZY

But did today's advance only make the divergences that DO exist even that MORE foreboding?

For you EW's out there http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/09/elliott-wave-update-6-september-2012.html

ECB ACTION A "GAME CHANGER"?

SHIPPERS ARE NOT ACTING RIGHT.

"What FedEx had to say was in many ways not too surprising. Weak growth worldwide, with a Europe still in crisis and a slowing China, has crimped revenues for the company, forcing them to lower earnings estimates for the first quarter."


YRC Worldwide Inc. "has shrunk its headquarters staff from around 2,000 to less than 400 as the company tries to streamline its operations."

LONG BEACH, Calif. " (AP) -- UTi Worldwide Inc. reported Thursday that net income fell 17 percent in its fiscal second quarter as a weak economy hurt demand for freight services. CEO Eric W. Kirchner said companies were "increasingly careful" about spending on freight and logistics, and he doesn't expect weak trends to change in the second half of the year."

GAME CHANGER??

Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the plan is not a band-aid and "really does have the potential to be a game changer."
Here's how it will work: The ECB will buy unlimited government bonds so long as that euro zone government complies with an economic reform program approved by the euro zone leaders. The ECB, in turn, will offset those purchases by taking an equal amount of money out of circulation, keeping its mandate to maintain stable prices.

"WHEELS COMING OFF CART FOR CHINESE ECONOMY?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheels-coming-off-chinese-economy-185524157.html

"And because the growth of electricity historically outpaces the growth of the economy, it means the economy can't be growing more than zero," he added.
"If you look at the manufacturing surveys, the price indices, they suggest zero growth, as do the mountains of copper in the car parks and the iron ore in the graineries."
Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," said other headwinds, such as an anti-reform government, will also hurt its economy.

"After 35 years of growth, the wheels are coming off the Chinese economy," he said.

"DEBT DESTROYS EVERYTHING" by Martin Armstrong

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/DebtDestroysEverything/index.htm

"Obama is preaching the destruction of the middle class small business owner in order to pay that pound of flesh now demanded by the bankers. He ignores the fact that almost 70% of the entire accumulated national debt went to interest payments to the bondholders – not to improve the lives of people. This idea of socialism has in itself been a lie. For you see, the numbers do not lie. The bulk of the national debt has been interest payments not to help anyone but the moneylenders. He preaches "socialism" while practicing the hypocrisy of lining the pockets of the New York bankers. MF Global will not be prosecuted. Why? Corzine is his buddy?"



Bottom line is out of one side of his mouth our President preaches equality, socialism and the EVIL of Wall Street, while his #1 contributor is Goldman Sachs? WHILE the FED chief under his rule has made it so the AVG American cannot find yield, but same FED chief has publicly admitted he has targeted the stock market for appreciation for its "WEALTH EFFECT"

Who benefits the most when stocks go up? Who owns more stocks? You guessed right, the wealthy. The Conservative saver, retires person, or the avg person with some stocks in his IRA benefits the least, and the SAVER is penalized.

They have it now, where you are literally FORCED into RISK ASSETS in a YIELD STARVATION environment, even as it is shown, that current policies are NOT putting enough people back to work, but it IS LINNG THE POCKETS of the bankers, INSIDERS, and Wall Street Elite.

Here is another good read http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=frontline  "The consequences of easy money policy"

"I missed the part where Congress gave the Fed a third mandate, to target the stock market. But Bernanke not only takes credit for the stock market, he points out that the rebound in the housing market is also due to Fed policy, because it fostered lower mortgage rates. Which it did. But let's also remember that it was Fed policy that helped create the housing bubble to begin with. Which I don't remember Bernanke taking credit for, even though he was on the Fed then and up to his eyeballs in supporting that policy."

 

DO THE ENDS JUSTIFY THE MEANS?

"I will first note that the Greenspan Federal Reserve was caught completely off-guard by the market excesses that their policies had nurtured back during the (then) aggressive 1992/93 reflation period. It's worth noting that the hedge fund community has expanded about 20-fold since, to a record $2.1 TN. Global derivatives markets have mushroomed to hundreds of Trillions. Importantly, derivatives markets as well as the global “leveraged speculating community” have continued to grow post-2008 crisis – only further bolstered by aggressive policy regimes."
Doug Noland

In a NORMAL crisis, or Recession, there is usually a slowing demand for credit, and a retrenching by Consumers, after the period of slowing demand, the Consumer will have reset themselves, sentiment will improve and the economy heals and grows again, this will be a sustainable recovery.

Instead, what we have now is an Historically LOW recovery in Consumer sentiment, remember the Consumer is 70% of the US economy. In fact in the latest poll sentiment fell the most in the last 9 months, considering at same time STOCKS were near their highs is disconcerting.

The FED was not watching the excessive speculation in the late 90'S? The PENNY STOCK FEVER would rival any TULIP MANIA of the past 100 years. High tech stocks soared almost every day with DOT COMS springing up on the HOUR and had no trouble getting funding, went public , then shortly went bust, but not before we saw MANIC behavior and WILD SPECULATION.

Since it was more an inventory, and tech related specific mania....stock mania, the REAL economy would have recovered. NOT GOOD ENOUGH for the FED, they had to MEDDLE again, but who remembers they were the BOZO'S ON THE BUS, asleep at the wheel while all the wild speculation was at play, visible in PLAIN SIGHT for anyone to see. But they didn't see? SURE , they saw, but maybe purposely did nothing. WAS this an experiment for Greenspan the financial monarch to prove he could cure a BURST BUBBLE?

Here comes his successor, Ben Bernanke, as we live and breathe GREENSPAN CLONE ON STEROIDS!
"How do you deal with a burst bubble? INDUCE ANOTHER ONE, but the next one proved to be even more unwieldy and harder to manage and again, the FED induced REAL ESTATE speculative BUBBLE, MANIA went unchecked by anyone? Including those in charge whose mandate is SOUND MONEY POLICIES and FULL EMPLOYMENT?

Now we have the BANKS and many FINANCIAL institutions involved in the mess....so what do we do? CREATE $16 Trillion out of thin air and bail then all out, HELICOPTER BEN.

Now he has his European DOUBLE?

0% FED FUNDS for almost 4 years, yet we suffer from PLUS 8% unemployment, that tells me the policies are ineffective in fixing the real economy. But this has fostered ANOTHER, perhaps even more dangerous BUBBLE to cover the previous one (see how this works)....
A GOV'T DEBT BUBBLE.....and an asset bubble AGAIN. AND if the FED is backstopping everything then isn't this setting up a worldwide MISPRICING OF RISK ASSETS????

You have a FED and world CB'S showing all their cards on the table, "WE GOT YOUR BACK" keep doing what you are doing. Meaning, we have PUT on the market, it can't fall because we would just print more money...and cover it all up.


BUT, the lack of ANY YIELD IS causing many to do just about anything to find yield. Even John Mauldin has just issued his new newsletter called "Yield Shark", to help subscribers find yield in an environment where it is harder and harder to find ANYTHING SAFE!~

IS FORCING almost all of the investors to ONE SIDE OF THE BOAT a good idea? ALL BUBBLES eventually burst.

AS Consumers have cut back on spending Governments have tried to STEP IN and replace them, making it an even more unbalanced economy. Gov't spending VS BUSINESS OR CONSUMER spending tends to be a LOT less efficient. It is speculated that it takes $800,000 per person for the Gov't to create a single job. (that figure comes from the govt's own figures)

Now there is mounting pressure to curb gov't spending, as we run $TRILLION plus deficits, and an audit the FED bill passed.

Wall Street reveres the FED, what if the FED Loses credibility? What appears stable is not, in round #3 of BUBBLE BLOWING the FED has outdone itself, for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction.......I DON'T like the sound of that.

D

SOME INITIAL FINDINGS FROM THE FED AUDIT

"Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and super corporations like Halloween candy"

http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2012/09/first-audit-in-the-federal-reserves-nearly-100-year-history-were-posted-today-the-results-are-startling-2449770.html

$16 TRILLION out of thin air, there's your under pinnings of this "great" stock rally.

D

HERE WE GO AGAIN?

How'd this work out? "Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000" or repeal of this one? Glass–Steagall Act

The SEC proposed some new rules yesterday on this issue. .......

"..As predicted, hedge funds remain a surprise beneficiary of this legislative and regulatory bonanza. Of particular interest to hedge fund managers, privately offered funds will be able to conduct offerings using general solicitations or general advertisements under the new amendments, without losing either of the very important exclusions under Sections 3(c)(1) or 3(c)(7) of the Investment Company Act. Is it only a matter of time now before the cold callings, mass mailings and full-page glossy ads in “Vanity Fair” and “GQ” begin?"

WEEKEND DOUG NOLAND

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10702

Doug on POLICY RISK

"Before delving into his cost-benefit framework, it is worth mentioning that the word “Bubble” is nowhere to be found in Bernanke’s paper. I strongly argue that the issue of whether the Fed is once again accommodating a Credit (“government finance”) Bubble is today’s prevailing – potentially catastrophic - policy risk."

"Is Half a Trillion Dollars of New Fed Easing Worth It?" or NO FREE LUNCH

"So, for the sake of discussion, I asked CNBC's top Fed-watcher if QE3 is presumed to be on, what might we expect the benefits to be of a half a trillion dollar package of additional quantitative easing?
According to guests and conference attendees that Liesman has spoken to, 0.2-0.3% of additional GDP growth and maybe a 0.1-0.2% reduction in the unemployment rate."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/half-trillion-dollars-fed-easing-worth-183400897.html

Consumer Sentiment

There is a direct correlation between the Consumer Sentiment readings and the direction of the stock market, with the recent drop, most in last 10 months, one would have to wonder if the stock market is going to have one of those bad Septembers.

We had lowest volume trading day of the year today, prices in narrow range and the VIX slowly creeping up....be ON GUARD

READ THIS
http://armstrongeconomics.com/7329-2/  "DEBT DSTROYS EVERYTHING"

THEY are trying to revive economy after debt bubble burst, by creating more debt???

D

ON THOSE RACIST OBAMA COMMENTS

Anything against Obama on personal level of attack might be taken as Racist, its just a fact when discussing our first black President, what people forget is the majority of Americans didn't care he was black, big deal.

It's about the policies, how effective has he been? Not how many shopping trips has his wife taken....

Sure it seems extreme to have a large entourage, but then her every move and word is disected.

I'm a Republican, and Bush dissapointed me, I didn't get the Conservative I thought he represented.

Both parties IMHO have screwed up, changes financial landscape and laws to allow climate that the current crisis was formed...enough blame to go around, its black and white to me.

Stop blaming any President and focus on the core issues, mostly the soundness of money, the ensuing greed, the duplicity of the FED, and arrogance to continue and even expand current destructive policies.....and the ignorance of the avg elected official to comprehend the problems

DIVERGING LIKE IN 2007?

AUTUMN CRISIS?

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26649/autumn-crisis

We know all that is wrong with the world. We also know that many feel the central bankers have it all handled.

We have a stock market disjointed with the dow and SPX rallying to near rally highs but see the Transports lagging behind, long since in 2011 making its high, and the NAZ and small caps also failing to confirm the move by the large caps.

We have a LOW LOW VIX (fear index), for lack of short term fear or worry about a major decline. But farther out we see positioning for a drop. We see NYSE short interest at a 5 year high, bears are in position in individual shares betting on an AUTUMN swoon.

If the markets job then was to fool the most people, most of the time, then its done its job handily.

A macro focused rally on low volume. Most shares traded by pros and computer programs. NO return on money left sitting around.....economic activity ebbing. SHort term NO fear but NYSE short int at 5 year high......it WILL play out, shortly....

D

Lee Adler’s Fed Cash to Primary Dealers Indicator

http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=5263&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WintereconomicMarketWatch+%28Winter+%28Economic+%26+Market%29+Watch%29

VERY INTERESTING DATA

D

A COLLAPSE IN THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48764357?__source=yahoo%7Crelated%7Cstory%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

What good is Central Bank easing if it doesn't lead to more economic activity?

D

FALLING INCOMES

"Annual incomes in the United States have dropped sharply in recent years, and near-retirees are getting hit the worst.
That's the conclusion of a new study by Sentier Research, which looked at the trend in median U.S. household incomes since 2000.
Twelve years ago, after adjusting for inflation, the median household in the United States earned about $55,000 per year, reports Catherine Rampell of the New York Times, citing Sentier's data.
Now, the median income has fallen to about $51,000.
The two age-groups that have been hit the worst in this period are households led by those in the 55-64 age group and those in the 25-34 age group. The incomes of the near-retirees have fallen by nearly 10% in the past three years.
This data explains why our economic recovery is so sluggish."

3 YEAR DIVERGENCE OF PARTICIPATION

Above chart highlighted are diminishing stocks above 200 day moving avg over the last 3 plus years of rally highs....this IMHO is signs of an AGING BUKLL MKT.

D

NO FEAR OF THE FISCAL CLIFF

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiscal-cliff-why-markets-havent-142511511.html

"The stock market hasn't priced in the end of the world this December, and it's not pricing in the "fiscal cliff."
That's because most investors don't believe either will happen.
While economists say the fiscal cliff (Learn More) has already created a drag on the economy, the impact on the stock market is less certain, and the outcome is about as predictable as the behavior of Congress.
"Most people have a relatively benign view of the risks involving the fiscal cliff, and the idea that it's going to be addressed in the lame duck session of Congress," says Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. "Some people have that view, and that's a pretty optimistic view. Experience might suggest that politicians are not in the mood to coming to resolutions necessarily."

ERODING SUPPORT YOU DON'T SEE

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/08/20120817cs.html

IS THIS ALL THAT KEEPS PRICES AFLOAT?

Stocks End Lower as Fed Hopes Fade

AP
Stocks closed lower as it seemed less certain that the Federal Reserve will step in with more help for the U.S. economy. More »Stocks End Lower as Fed Hopes Fade

• Related: Marc Faber: Odds of Global Recession Are 100%

OBAMA'S ALTERNATIVE ENERGY CAMPAIGN?

GRIM REPORT ON ECONOMY

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/grim-report-on-economy-gives-mitt-romney-an-opening-to-shift-back-to-economic-message/

"The government report, released today by the Congressional Budget Office, estimated a $1.1 trillion deficit for 2012, and said that if the tax and spending cuts go through as planned in January that “such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession.”
The report also predicted that the country’s unemployment rate would remain above 8 percent for the rest of the year."

WARNING FROM GS ANALYST "beware the fiscal cliff"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-dump-stocks-fiscal-141901421.html

"You can sense almost an air of desperation from David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, in his latest note to clients as he pleads with them to take money out of stocks before they fall off the fiscal cliff.

In the note, Kostin vehemently defends his year-end S&P 500 (^GSPC) target of 1250 despite the benchmark's recent rise to above 1400. The strategist still sees a 12 percent drop ahead, believing that Congress will fail to address the fiscal cliff before the election, and maybe even before the end of the year."

LODNON STOCK MARKET ENDING DIAGONAL

Weakening momentum should lead to a break LOWER.

D

"U.S. corporate earnings point to further gloom"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Earnings season is drawing to a close and the results raise a number of worrying questions about the economy's direction.
For the second quarter, the percentage of companies beating revenue forecasts was the lowest since 2009. For every company that gave a positive outlook, nearly five companies gave negative outlooks, Thomson Reuters data showed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-u-corporate-earnings-point-204440441.html

DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10697

"Risk on” has seen 10-year Treasury yields jump 40 bps off July 24 lows to 1.81%. The way things are unfolding, the placid Treasury market might turn into rather treacherous waters. I expect Draghi’s Plan to be yet another European disappointment. “Risk off” waits patiently. But it’s also apparent that over-liquefied U.S. securities markets have turned highly speculative. An enduring “risk on” backdrop could easily see things get out of hand. Amazingly, as the signs of excess become increasingly apparent, the Fed apparently remains ready with additional monetary stimulus. It’s going to be an interesting fall."

Each time in the last decade when the US economy gets into trouble at the end of speculative bubbles, first tech, then real estate/mortgage finance.....the FED comes to rescue and Gov't with an even larger scoop of stimulus, but what it has done each time is create even larger, unwieldy bubbles that have to be dealt with.

Each time we get into trouble with debt, we get an even larger dose of credit growth. 0% FED rate for 4 years has worked some magic on the housing market, but it hasn't produced strong job growth and it's not likely to all of a sudden.

Money is flowing into bans and mortgage lenders in so far as majority is refi's. This should help economy and with lower mortgages put some pop into consumer spending....so what's to worry about?

ALL BUBBLES POP. Yields are historically LOW at 1.8% on the 10 year, but they did vault higher from lows this week.

Higher interest rates, should that be what we are headed to would be a huge nail in our speculative coffin. A bursting of a historic debt/gov't and FED induced junk bubble...F ME!

Read Doug's piece, junk is now being treated like its safe, as the yields are so low elsewhere, people are being forced into stocks and risky investments to get yield......how will that end?

WHY ARE THE RICHEST MEN IN WORLD BUYING GOLD?

Here's another link http://www.infowars.com/startling-evidence-that-central-banks-and-wall-street-insiders-are-rapidly-preparing-for-something-big/

VOLATILITY AND THE MOST HATED RALLY

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-whammy-volatilty-etfs-falling-152051242.html

It may seem strange to some investors who keep seeing stocks go higher, the VIX is back to 13 area, so short term there is NO fear, but further down road the VIX is being bought as many fear DOWN THE ROAD prices of stocks will fall.

I can't be certain, as the rally gets ever so more narrow, and less inclusive, but could this FEAR longer term, not so shorter term work to keep this thing together until the bear finally give up? LIke SPX 1450-1550?

I've seen stranger....maybe a Sat post, please come back, and have a great weekend.

D

"When the Weakest Critical Part Fails, the Machine Breaks Down "

"Once credit ceases to expand, asset bubbles pop and consumerism grinds to a halt. And since ever-expanding consumption is the bedrock of the global economy, the global economy will also grind to a halt."
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html by Charles Hugh Smith

HOUSING RECOVERY?

Has recovered to HALF what it was in 1996!

D

CHART SPOTLIGHT "ANOTHER DIVERGENCE"

Is the consumer cyclical warning us?

CHART SPOTLIGHT

Good chance this will resolve with a spike HIGHER. I think this is good example of a bullish pennant pattern. LOWER HIGHS with higher lows.....the higher lows so far may be key as it shows even as stock does NOT make new highs, people are betting on higher prices with the higher lows.

D

MONTHLY VIX (FEAR INDEX)

HISTORIC DOW CHART 1900- present and FOOLS GOLD

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
It is true, the stock market always (eventually) moves higher throughout history.

BUT, after the fall of 1929 to 1930 it took 26 YEARS to better the old highs. For almost 20 years during 1960-1980 stocks basically went nowhere.

The CRASH of 1929, stocks ended up losing 90% of their values from the highs when that bear mkt ended.....and then it took another 26 years to recover new highs.

SPRING forward to today, the new world of financial engineering (thank you FED) THE DOW FELL better than 50% from 2007 to 2009 LOWS, but it has recouped MOST of those losses in jsut 3 years???

Most of stocks gains has come since 1980...as we enterred the Greenspan FED ERA. LOW LOW INTEREST RATES are DIRECTLY behind todays stock surge....the FED has laid down the gauntlet and left you with little else to find yield.

I have seen balanced, well diversified portfolios that have managed a 7% return over the last 10 years...outpacing the SPX.....with the help of an expert financial planner, you can somewhat rest easier at night....because HOW many of you can TIME the market?

For most people it is they are in.....until the market losses pile up and stress wins out, they eventually sell near the lows....some never come back settling for meager 1.5% returns on SAFE US TREASURIES....who can live off that?

Will baby boomers begin to sell stocks soon to fuel their retirement?

Stocks made new highs in 2007, so we could argue the BULL LONG TERM BULL that began in 1980 ended in 2007...longest running in history 27 years! or will wenow hit ANOTHER NEW HIGH?

The last BEAR MARKET lasted 16 years from 1966-1982.......there is NO WAY a 27 year BULL MKT or even an 18 yr bull mkt (if you use 2000 as top) is corrected in 2 years.

We may end up where we started 10 years down the road, with wild swings, but surely the killer of your money is INFLATION.

"WE'RE OUT OF BULLETS" to stimulate economy

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/global-recession-only-time-heal-economy-says-gary-123445059.html

HAS HOUSING BOTTOMED?

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2011/07/has-housing-bottomed-heres-how-to-tell.html

"Has housing bottomed? Here is the sure-fire way to tell:

Stories titled "Has housing bottomed? Here's how to tell" have vanished for lack of interest.
The absence of stories about the bottom in housing will mark the final nadir, because the real bottom can only be reached when everyone has abandoned housing as a pathway to easy money. Only when the public and investor class alike have completely lost interest in real estate as a "sure-fire" investment can the real trough be reached."

"The housing market has turned—at last.  7/12

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303644004577520414196790098.html
The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing."

Stunned Home Buyers Find Bidding Wars Are Back 4/27/12 ?????????????????????

ONLY A BLIND MAN COULDN'T SEE HOUSING HAS MADE ITS BOTTOM
http://www.businessinsider.com/calculated-risk-chart-housing-bottom-2012-8

CASE SHILLER http://housingbubblenews.com/images/housing-chart/history-of-home-values.jpg

NON CONFIRMATION OF RECENT NEW RALLY HIGHS

Transports and mid cap and small cap stocks non confirming new rally highs in Dow and SPX, the rally is getting more selective, less new highs as it goes along. this is NOT indicative of a healthy rally nor one you would expect to see in an ongoing BULL MKT,IMHO

Duratek

BDI...AGAIN. Baltic Dry Index In Review

Someone criticized me for not mentioning the BDI when it goes up as PROOF of a bull market, only posting it when it goes down as if that is only thing I can point to as reasoning for a bear market and weaker economy ahead.

Dayy to day, even week to week movements are not as important as the TRENDS. Can someone astutue out there give me a guess as to the TREND of this indicator for BULK shipping rates for RAW materials....the stuff that goes into making things?

No doubt recent Chinese weakness has effected inports and exports of these large ships. Not an end all to be all indicator, just one of the indcators on worlwide economic health, not something you TRADE OFF OF.

D

LONDON (Reuters) -" Five years into the great financial crisis, central banks are still pushing back the boundaries of monetary policy only to encounter constant reminders of the limits of their power to revive growth."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-five-years-central-banks-172756291.html

"Analysis: Five years on, central banks not yet out of options"  IN PLAIN ENGLISH what has not worked for 5 years, the idiots will keep on doing....

D

SO GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS?

China Slowdown So Bad, the Market Is Cheering

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-slowdown-bad-market-cheering-103631157.html

It IS a twisted sick world.

D

CURRENT YIELD IN S&P 500 is 1.95%

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

MAJOR BEAR MKTS have typically made their final bottoms with yields of 6% or higher. MAJOR TOPS typically offer the least inducement to hold buy yield and it's more about price appreciation...yields are found near 3%.

Are we near a TOP or a bottom?

D

HOUSING WON'T LEAD US OUT, THEN WHAT WILL?

Recession Generation Opts to Rent, Not Buy, Houses to Cars

Bloomberg
Confronting a jobless rate above 8% since 2009 and student-loan debt hitting about $1 trillion, 20-to-34-year-olds are renting apartments, cars and even clothing to save money and stay flexible. More »

DECISION POINT SITE. "UNHEALTHY MKT"

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/08/152-top-10-blue-chip-index-shows-unhealthy-market.html

"S&P Hits 1,400 on Hopes for Central Bank Action"

Above is another one of mant taglines for the reasons WHY stocks keep heading higher.

Central Bank action has put floor under the mkt, they may even be buying SPX futures, but this is an OLD GAME and it gets less and less bang for the $ each time they do something.

I don't know, is the 0% rate policy the only way out of this mess? WHAT do 25% of all homeowners, who are UNDER WATER In their mortgage do? NO GOV'T program can help them, don't listen to the claims which are either lies or misleading.

You can't refi if you are way under water, can't sell......don't want to renovate or spend money on your home.....

EVERY recovery from Recession has been led by housing until now. Never before have we had yr/yr declines in housing prices, until now.

DO you want to put all your eggs in the stock market basket if the reason it rallies and appears like a bull is "hope for central bank action"?

D

BACK TEST OF BREAK OUT?

It certainly looks like it. If prices continue higher and hold the upper range above 1400, that would seal the deal for assault higher in prices.

Nagging laggards such as Transports, RUT (small caps), and the NAZ bring lingering doubts.

EURO CB'S adopting the FED's QE scheme has emboldened the "RISK ON" trade. DAY TRADERS love the market, longer term SWING TRADERS not on solid footing here.

D

ARE WE HEADED FOR SPX 1600 NEXT?

It never pays to be so one sided that you don't explore or consider all possible outcomes. Did the world end in 2009? We were on BRINK of financial meltdown, fear was at a climax...the darkest hour turned out to be maybe the best time to buy stocks in our lifetime. CAT at $10???

It's not supposed to be easy, or everyone would win, it IS a CASINO! where the house wins 80% of the time. It is a RIGGED game where many know important info before YOU ever do...it's a RIGGED game.

It's election year, the FED will stand by and let economy continue to sink? MY GUY says some kind of surprise action BEFORE next meeting, to maximize effect.....which I suspect will be more short lived than expected....and it may be enough to send stock to their final highs.

Many BULL MKT stocks are already floundering like CAT 20% plus off its highs, ALCOA hurting and single digits. Small and mid caps underperforming, and a non confirmation between Transports and Industrials.

But the top of my broadening megaphone pattern is near 1600 SPX, that option is out there. The 20,50, and 75 week MA'S are all rising, so that is NOT bearish.

GAS has risen 25 cents per gallon in last few weeks, when mkt gets jiggy so does OIL. Maybe game is to talk up EURO, hurts the US $, bully for stocks, commodities get a boom.

1% rates in 2001 led to a HOUSING BOOM, but unfortunately a housing and mortgage finance BUBBLE, when it burst, you know the rest. Now we have 0% rates, mortgage finance rates at HISTORIC LOWS, and the housing mkt barely a rebound pulse, WHY????

Law of diminishing returns, and hard to refinance when you home you bought between 2005-2007 or so is worth 20% or less more than you paid, you don't qualify!

Those heavy into the stock market are benefitting from current policy, but didn't the avg investor head for the hills and Bond Funds and like the Turtle haven ot come out of their shells?

DEMAND for credit has not recovered, ALL this money pumped has not made its way into the REAL ECONOMY, where did it all go? RECORD STOCK RALLY in face of weakest statistical recovery from recession is telling.

Ultimately the bear has been fought with more and more gusto, each time 2003, and 2009 the result from this INTERVENTION has been more costly...... we had a top in 2000, then bottom 3 years later in 2003, we had a 4 year bull and topped 4 years later in 2007, we had a short but painful 2 yr bear that ended in 2009. If this pattern is still playing out this bull will top between 2012-2013....IF.

IF we get near 1600 on the SPX, and you just sit there like lambs at the slaughter house, don't say I didn't warn you.

D

D

BANKING RALLY STALLED

SECULAR BEAR MARKET CONTINUES

Momentum increased not diverged at new market low in 2009,  so it is my belief that we have NOT seen the LOWS in this Secular Bear Mkt. WE should hit that somewhere between 2014-2016 (but could come earlier)

Do you think the excesses have been PURGED from the system? F no! They have been piled on to it!

These assholes that run our gov't and FED Reserve Banks are reckless to avoid the day of reckoning these jerks helped bring about.

Is there anything out there such as a FREE LUNCH? let me know will you.

D

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE?

TRIM TABS EXEC TURNS 100% BEARISH

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/inside-mind-100-market-bear-132824067.html

Trim Tabs is highly respected

D

MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER

600 M shares traded in first half hour, that's pretty strong buying. AS my last long term chart showed, even 1550 SPX not out of question for this move, certainly we will be watching from 1400-1450.

Last night reversal and falling VIX was warning that bullish positioning could be taking place in front of this number. A lot of your thinking will be based on your time horizon. So if in the market first figure out what kind of investor are you?

Staying out if diversified still paying off, But I won't change my longer term outlook for lower prices, that DOESN'T, and I wasn't advocating shorting HERE....there will be time and raising cash would be a conservative man's approach to shorting as you hope to buy at lower prices.

I personally don't worry about missing anything here, I am an observer of the market and doing my best to present an accurate picture of the longer term trend and climate. If you remember the previous 2 Bear markets, the declines come out of nowhere and can be brutal.

The data can be misleading, so when that happens, do you see the value in technical analysis?
Duratek

DID THIS MORNINGS EMPLOYMENT DATA SIGNAL RECOVERY?

http://market-ticker.org/  Break down of employment data.

"And in the household survey I do not like what I see.
The total number of people of working-age went from 243.155 (million) to 243.354, or 199,000 more working-age people. However, the number of employed people dropped from 143.202 (million) to 143.126, or an actual drop of 76,000 jobs.
Worse, the number of people not in the labor force increased from 86.770 million to 86.828, or an increase of 58,000 -- people who simply gave up."

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000  Labor participation rate fell to near lowest levels.

I wish the data was cut and dry, if you watch that fool Mark Zandi and CNBS.....it is always bullish and hard to hear analytical thought.

We don't want bull nor bearish opinions, just someone who cares to present an honest opinion.

The market perhaps will can can make NEW HIGHS within the context of this Secular bear....kind of a crazy premise, but unltimately the folly ends and the target of previous lows is taken on.

3 PLUS years into "recovery" 8.3% OFFICIAL unemployment, one of the weakest labor participation rates since they kept the data, and the pundits will run with todays data and declare VICTORY? PROOF OF HEALTHY ECONOMY?

D

S & P 500 CHART FROM 1980- present. SECULAR BEAR RUNNING....

STOCK MARKET PE CYCLE FOR TYPICAL BEAR MARKETS

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Secular-PE.pdf

WHAT IS THE "REAL" UNEMPLOYMENT RATE?

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

What is U6 unemployment rate ?

The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over.

WHERE IS SUPPORT FOR NFLX

UNDERBELLY CRACKING?

AS you can see from my chart both Small caps (RUT) and Transports (both off 2% today) have long since made their highs.

This market is weaker than it appears.

D