Guy comes in….I say “how’s biz?” he says “biz is GREAT!!!!!!” What biz you in?”
He works with the banks to unload FORECLOSURES!! Been doing this since 1995
“We are selling for 50 cents on dollar” he sets up eviction, fixes up if necessary…..try to sell them fast.
For himself he bought “18 acres in Jarretsville, 3,800 sq foot home built in 1992…..for $520K was listed ? over $800K bank ate rest.
He normally carries about 60 homes in inventory….he now has 200-300….”its taking longer to sell.”
He sees his numbers swelling to near 400…..”It is picking up not slowing down” someone will make a killing here and it wont be the banks
He sees it getting worse as “we haven’t even gotten to the Alternate A homes yet due in next 3 months,,,,” and more subprime…..will take another year and half to clear them out.
GLAD SOMEONE IS BUSY!!
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
BOTTOM IN PLACE?
http://www.screencast.com/users/LeavittBrothers/folders/Default/media/36549708-5ce0-44f9-9dc9-5cac8924ef6b
Short video by Leavitt brothers, informative.
D
Short video by Leavitt brothers, informative.
D
Sunday, April 20, 2008
CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/CreditBubbleBulletinHome DOUG NOLAND
Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two:
Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, wrote an op-ed piece in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal – “Enough with Interest Rate Cuts” – worthy of comment.
“It’s time for the Federal Reserve to stop reducing the federal funds rate, because the likely benefit is small compared to the potential damage. Lower interest rates could raise the already high prices of energy and food, which are already triggering riots in developing countries. In order to offset the inflationary impact of higher imported commodity prices, central banks in those countries may raise interest rates. Such contractionary policies would reduce real incomes and exacerbate political instability.
The impact of low interest rates on commodity-price inflation is different from the traditional inflationary effect of easy money. The usual concern is that lowering interest rates stimulates economic activity to a point at which labor and product markets cause wages and prices to rise. That is unlikely to happen in the U.S. in the coming year. The general weakness of the economy will keep most wages and prices from rising more rapidly. But high unemployment and low capacity utilization would not prevent lower interest rates from driving up commodity prices.
Many factors have contributed to the recent rise in the prices of oil and food, especially the increased demand from China, India and other rapidly growing countries. Lower interest rates also add to the upward pressure on these commodity prices – by making it less costly for commodity investors and commodity speculators to hold larger inventories of oil and food grains. Lower interest rates induce investors to add commodities to their portfolios. When rates are low, portfolio investors will bid up the prices of oil and other commodities to levels at which the expected future returns are in line with the lower rates. An interest rate-induced rise in the price of oil also contributes indirectly to higher prices of food grains. It does so by making it profitable for farmers to devote more farm land to growing corn for ethanol.”
While I concur with the basic premise of the article (stop the cuts!), the substance of Mr. Feldstein’s analysis leaves much to be desired. First of all, I find it strange than he would address the issues of overly accommodative Federal Reserve policy, commodity price risk, and inflationary pressures without so much as a cursory mention of our weak currency. The word “dollar” is nowhere to be found – not a mention of our Current Account Deficits. The focus is only on interest rates - and such one-dimensional analysis just doesn’t pass muster in our complex world.
Most remain comfortably oblivious to today’s inflation dynamics. Mr. Feldstein mentions increased demand from China and India. He seems to imply, however, that portfolio buying (financed by low interest rates) by “commodity investors and speculators” is providing the major impetus to rising inflationary pressures generally. Perhaps price gains could have something to do with the $2.5 TN increase in global official reserve positions over the past two years (85% growth). I would also counter that destabilizing speculative activity is an inevitable consequence – rather than a cause - of an alarmingly inflationary global backdrop.
I’ll remind readers that we live in a unique world of unregulated Credit. Excess has evolved to the point of being endemic to an apparatus that operates without any mechanism for adjustment or self-correction. There is, of course, no gold reserve system to restrain domestic monetary expansions. Some years back the dollar-based Bretton Woods global monetary regime lost its relevance. And, importantly, the market-based disciplining mechanism (“king dollar”) that emerged at times to ruthlessly punish financial profligacy around the globe throughout the nineties has morphed into a dysfunctional dynamic that these days nurtures self-reinforcing excesses. The “recycling” of our “Bubble dollars” (in the process inflating local Credit systems, asset markets, commodities and economies across the globe) directly back into our securities markets rests at the epicenter of Global Monetary Dysfunction.
A historic inflation in dollar financial claims was the undoing of anything resembling a global monetary system, and now this anchorless “system” of wildcat finance is the bane of financial and economic stability. To be sure, massive and unrelenting U.S. Current Account Deficits and resulting dollar impairment have unleashed domestic Credit systems around the globe to expand uncontrollably. Today, virtually any major Credit system can and does inflate domestic Credit to create the purchasing power to procure inflating global food, energy, and commodities prices.
The long-overdue U.S. Credit contraction and economic adjustment could change this dynamic. But for now there are reasons to expect this uninhibited Global Credit Bubble to instead run to precarious extremes - and for resulting Monetary Disorder to become increasingly problematic. Destabilizing price movements and myriad inflationary effects are poised to worsen. The specter of yet another year of near-$800bn Current Account Deficits coupled with huge speculative flows out of dollars is just too much for an acutely overheated and unstable global currency and economic “system” to cope with.
I hear pundits still referring to a “deflationary Credit collapse.” Well, the U.S. Credit system implosion was largely stopped in its tracks last month. The Fed bailed out Bear Stearns; opened wide its discount window to Wall Street; and implemented unprecedented liquidity facilities for the benefit of the marketplace overall. Central banks around the globe executed unparalleled concerted market liquidity operations. Here at home, the GSEs’ regulator spoke publicly about Fannie and Freddie having the capacity to add $200 billion of mortgages to their balances sheets, with the possibility of increasing their guarantee business as much as $2 TN this year (certainly including “jumbo” mortgages). The Federal Home Loan Bank system was given the ok to continue aggressive liquidity injections and balloon its balance sheet in the process. And now (see “GSE Watch” above) we see that the Federal Housing Administration (with its new mandate and $729,550 loan limit) is likely to increase federal government mortgage insurance by as much as $200bn this year, while Washington’s Ginnie Mae is in the midst of a securitization boom.
Together, the Fed and Washington have effectively nationalized a large portion of both mortgage and market liquidity risk. It is, as well, worth noting that JPMorgan Chase expanded assets by $80.7bn during the first quarter (20.7% annualized) to $1.642 TN, with six-month growth of $163.3bn (22.1% annualized). Goldman Sachs expanded its balance sheets by $69.2bn during Q1 (24.7% annualized) to $1.189 TN, with half-year growth of $143.2bn (27.4%). Even Wells Fargo grew assets at an almost 14% pace this past quarter. And we know that Bank Credit overall has expanded at a 12.6% rate over the past 38 weeks. Meanwhile, GSE MBS issuance has been ramped up to a record pace. And let’s not forget the Credit intermediation function now being carried out by the money fund complex – with assets having increased an unprecedented $371bn y-t-d (41.3% annualized) and $900bn over the past 38 weeks (47.7% annualized). It is also worth noting the $184bn y-t-d increase (29% annualized) in foreign “custody” holdings held at the Fed. Sure, the Credit system remains under significant stress, with additional mortgage and corporate Credit deterioration in the offing. But, at least for now, policymakers have successfully stemmed systemic deleveraging. The Credit system is simply not in deflationary collapse mode.
I could not be more pessimistic with regard to our economy’s prognosis. And certainly much more severe Credit problems lay ahead. I could argue further that recent Credit system developments are indeed consistent with the unfolding “worst-case scenario”. Yet I tend this evening to see benefits from analyzing the current backdrop in terms of the conclusion of the first Stage of the Crisis. The key aspect of this “first Stage” was a breakdown in Wall Street’s highly leveraged risk intermediation and securities speculation markets. The speed and force of the unwind was extraordinary and in notable contrast to traditional banking crises that track real economy developments. “Resolution” came only through the Federal Reserve and federal government assuming unprecedented risk – and at a cost of a policymaking mix of interest-rate cuts, marketplace interventions, and government guarantees. It is worth pondering some of the near-term ramifications.
First of all – and as the market recognized this week – yields have been driven to excessively low levels. Fed funds are today ridiculously priced in comparison both to the inflationary backdrop and to global rates. Mr. Feldstein is calling for a halt to rate cuts when it would be more appropriate for the Fed to move immediately to return rates to a more reasonable level. They, of course, would not contemplate as much. So I will presume that today’s non-imploding Credit system – replete with government-backed mortgage securitizations, government-guaranteed bank Credit, presumed government-backstopped money funds and a recovering debt issuance apparatus – will suffice in the near-term in generating Credit sufficient to perpetuate our enormous Current Account Deficits. This is no minor point.
I have in past Bulletins made the case that U.S. Credit and Economic Bubbles had become untenable – the scope of Credit and risk intermediation necessary to support the maladjusted economy had become too large. Extraordinary measures to effectively “nationalize” mortgage and market liquidity risk change somewhat the direction of the analysis. I would today argue that the risk of a precipitous economic downturn has been reduced in the near-term. As a consequence, U.S. Credit growth could surprise on the upside with risks to global Price Instability increasing markedly.
I would argue firmly that – in the face of a rapidly weakening economic backdrop - global inflation dynamics coupled with our highly maladjusted economy ensure intractable trade deficits. I would further argue that the current inflationary backdrop will prove an impetus to Credit creation – that then begets only more heightened inflationary pressures. There are certainly indications that the over-liquefied global “system” is not well situated today to handle more dollar liquidity (akin to throwing gas on a fire). Inflation and its consequences have quickly become major issues around the world.
With crude hitting a record $117 today, there is every reason to expect that newly created global liquidity will further inflate energy, food, and commodity prices generally. The Goldman Sachs Commodities index has gained 21% already this year. But when it comes to Monetary Instability, our financial markets might just prove the unappreciated wildcard. When the Fed and Washington radically altered the rules of U.S. finance last month, they placed in jeopardy huge positions that had been put in place to hedge against and profit from systemic crisis. With the end of “Stage one” arises a major short squeeze in the Credit, equities, and derivatives markets. And when it comes to contemplating the scope and ramifications of today’s “hedging” activities, we’re clearly in Uncharted Waters. It is not beyond reason that a disorderly unwind of “bearish” Credit market positions could incite a mini bout of liquidity, speculation, and Credit excess that exacerbates Global Monetary Instability - while Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two of the Crisis.
Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two:
Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, wrote an op-ed piece in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal – “Enough with Interest Rate Cuts” – worthy of comment.
“It’s time for the Federal Reserve to stop reducing the federal funds rate, because the likely benefit is small compared to the potential damage. Lower interest rates could raise the already high prices of energy and food, which are already triggering riots in developing countries. In order to offset the inflationary impact of higher imported commodity prices, central banks in those countries may raise interest rates. Such contractionary policies would reduce real incomes and exacerbate political instability.
The impact of low interest rates on commodity-price inflation is different from the traditional inflationary effect of easy money. The usual concern is that lowering interest rates stimulates economic activity to a point at which labor and product markets cause wages and prices to rise. That is unlikely to happen in the U.S. in the coming year. The general weakness of the economy will keep most wages and prices from rising more rapidly. But high unemployment and low capacity utilization would not prevent lower interest rates from driving up commodity prices.
Many factors have contributed to the recent rise in the prices of oil and food, especially the increased demand from China, India and other rapidly growing countries. Lower interest rates also add to the upward pressure on these commodity prices – by making it less costly for commodity investors and commodity speculators to hold larger inventories of oil and food grains. Lower interest rates induce investors to add commodities to their portfolios. When rates are low, portfolio investors will bid up the prices of oil and other commodities to levels at which the expected future returns are in line with the lower rates. An interest rate-induced rise in the price of oil also contributes indirectly to higher prices of food grains. It does so by making it profitable for farmers to devote more farm land to growing corn for ethanol.”
While I concur with the basic premise of the article (stop the cuts!), the substance of Mr. Feldstein’s analysis leaves much to be desired. First of all, I find it strange than he would address the issues of overly accommodative Federal Reserve policy, commodity price risk, and inflationary pressures without so much as a cursory mention of our weak currency. The word “dollar” is nowhere to be found – not a mention of our Current Account Deficits. The focus is only on interest rates - and such one-dimensional analysis just doesn’t pass muster in our complex world.
Most remain comfortably oblivious to today’s inflation dynamics. Mr. Feldstein mentions increased demand from China and India. He seems to imply, however, that portfolio buying (financed by low interest rates) by “commodity investors and speculators” is providing the major impetus to rising inflationary pressures generally. Perhaps price gains could have something to do with the $2.5 TN increase in global official reserve positions over the past two years (85% growth). I would also counter that destabilizing speculative activity is an inevitable consequence – rather than a cause - of an alarmingly inflationary global backdrop.
I’ll remind readers that we live in a unique world of unregulated Credit. Excess has evolved to the point of being endemic to an apparatus that operates without any mechanism for adjustment or self-correction. There is, of course, no gold reserve system to restrain domestic monetary expansions. Some years back the dollar-based Bretton Woods global monetary regime lost its relevance. And, importantly, the market-based disciplining mechanism (“king dollar”) that emerged at times to ruthlessly punish financial profligacy around the globe throughout the nineties has morphed into a dysfunctional dynamic that these days nurtures self-reinforcing excesses. The “recycling” of our “Bubble dollars” (in the process inflating local Credit systems, asset markets, commodities and economies across the globe) directly back into our securities markets rests at the epicenter of Global Monetary Dysfunction.
A historic inflation in dollar financial claims was the undoing of anything resembling a global monetary system, and now this anchorless “system” of wildcat finance is the bane of financial and economic stability. To be sure, massive and unrelenting U.S. Current Account Deficits and resulting dollar impairment have unleashed domestic Credit systems around the globe to expand uncontrollably. Today, virtually any major Credit system can and does inflate domestic Credit to create the purchasing power to procure inflating global food, energy, and commodities prices.
The long-overdue U.S. Credit contraction and economic adjustment could change this dynamic. But for now there are reasons to expect this uninhibited Global Credit Bubble to instead run to precarious extremes - and for resulting Monetary Disorder to become increasingly problematic. Destabilizing price movements and myriad inflationary effects are poised to worsen. The specter of yet another year of near-$800bn Current Account Deficits coupled with huge speculative flows out of dollars is just too much for an acutely overheated and unstable global currency and economic “system” to cope with.
I hear pundits still referring to a “deflationary Credit collapse.” Well, the U.S. Credit system implosion was largely stopped in its tracks last month. The Fed bailed out Bear Stearns; opened wide its discount window to Wall Street; and implemented unprecedented liquidity facilities for the benefit of the marketplace overall. Central banks around the globe executed unparalleled concerted market liquidity operations. Here at home, the GSEs’ regulator spoke publicly about Fannie and Freddie having the capacity to add $200 billion of mortgages to their balances sheets, with the possibility of increasing their guarantee business as much as $2 TN this year (certainly including “jumbo” mortgages). The Federal Home Loan Bank system was given the ok to continue aggressive liquidity injections and balloon its balance sheet in the process. And now (see “GSE Watch” above) we see that the Federal Housing Administration (with its new mandate and $729,550 loan limit) is likely to increase federal government mortgage insurance by as much as $200bn this year, while Washington’s Ginnie Mae is in the midst of a securitization boom.
Together, the Fed and Washington have effectively nationalized a large portion of both mortgage and market liquidity risk. It is, as well, worth noting that JPMorgan Chase expanded assets by $80.7bn during the first quarter (20.7% annualized) to $1.642 TN, with six-month growth of $163.3bn (22.1% annualized). Goldman Sachs expanded its balance sheets by $69.2bn during Q1 (24.7% annualized) to $1.189 TN, with half-year growth of $143.2bn (27.4%). Even Wells Fargo grew assets at an almost 14% pace this past quarter. And we know that Bank Credit overall has expanded at a 12.6% rate over the past 38 weeks. Meanwhile, GSE MBS issuance has been ramped up to a record pace. And let’s not forget the Credit intermediation function now being carried out by the money fund complex – with assets having increased an unprecedented $371bn y-t-d (41.3% annualized) and $900bn over the past 38 weeks (47.7% annualized). It is also worth noting the $184bn y-t-d increase (29% annualized) in foreign “custody” holdings held at the Fed. Sure, the Credit system remains under significant stress, with additional mortgage and corporate Credit deterioration in the offing. But, at least for now, policymakers have successfully stemmed systemic deleveraging. The Credit system is simply not in deflationary collapse mode.
I could not be more pessimistic with regard to our economy’s prognosis. And certainly much more severe Credit problems lay ahead. I could argue further that recent Credit system developments are indeed consistent with the unfolding “worst-case scenario”. Yet I tend this evening to see benefits from analyzing the current backdrop in terms of the conclusion of the first Stage of the Crisis. The key aspect of this “first Stage” was a breakdown in Wall Street’s highly leveraged risk intermediation and securities speculation markets. The speed and force of the unwind was extraordinary and in notable contrast to traditional banking crises that track real economy developments. “Resolution” came only through the Federal Reserve and federal government assuming unprecedented risk – and at a cost of a policymaking mix of interest-rate cuts, marketplace interventions, and government guarantees. It is worth pondering some of the near-term ramifications.
First of all – and as the market recognized this week – yields have been driven to excessively low levels. Fed funds are today ridiculously priced in comparison both to the inflationary backdrop and to global rates. Mr. Feldstein is calling for a halt to rate cuts when it would be more appropriate for the Fed to move immediately to return rates to a more reasonable level. They, of course, would not contemplate as much. So I will presume that today’s non-imploding Credit system – replete with government-backed mortgage securitizations, government-guaranteed bank Credit, presumed government-backstopped money funds and a recovering debt issuance apparatus – will suffice in the near-term in generating Credit sufficient to perpetuate our enormous Current Account Deficits. This is no minor point.
I have in past Bulletins made the case that U.S. Credit and Economic Bubbles had become untenable – the scope of Credit and risk intermediation necessary to support the maladjusted economy had become too large. Extraordinary measures to effectively “nationalize” mortgage and market liquidity risk change somewhat the direction of the analysis. I would today argue that the risk of a precipitous economic downturn has been reduced in the near-term. As a consequence, U.S. Credit growth could surprise on the upside with risks to global Price Instability increasing markedly.
I would argue firmly that – in the face of a rapidly weakening economic backdrop - global inflation dynamics coupled with our highly maladjusted economy ensure intractable trade deficits. I would further argue that the current inflationary backdrop will prove an impetus to Credit creation – that then begets only more heightened inflationary pressures. There are certainly indications that the over-liquefied global “system” is not well situated today to handle more dollar liquidity (akin to throwing gas on a fire). Inflation and its consequences have quickly become major issues around the world.
With crude hitting a record $117 today, there is every reason to expect that newly created global liquidity will further inflate energy, food, and commodity prices generally. The Goldman Sachs Commodities index has gained 21% already this year. But when it comes to Monetary Instability, our financial markets might just prove the unappreciated wildcard. When the Fed and Washington radically altered the rules of U.S. finance last month, they placed in jeopardy huge positions that had been put in place to hedge against and profit from systemic crisis. With the end of “Stage one” arises a major short squeeze in the Credit, equities, and derivatives markets. And when it comes to contemplating the scope and ramifications of today’s “hedging” activities, we’re clearly in Uncharted Waters. It is not beyond reason that a disorderly unwind of “bearish” Credit market positions could incite a mini bout of liquidity, speculation, and Credit excess that exacerbates Global Monetary Instability - while Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two of the Crisis.
Friday, April 18, 2008
READ 'EM AND WEAP
RISING PRICES< FALLING ECONOMIC ACTIVY!! That's what the FED action has brought us< AND the 10 yr treasury yield is now near 3.8% !!! is this helping home owners?LOOK at 200o on LEI chart....look at today, nuf said! hope is fine....if it's backed up
D
GOOG CHART
**Click chart to enlarge....I have labeled few areas of potential resistance, let's see how GOOG does, it will vault near $80 a share pre openD
GOOG AND AM NEWS
Citigroup stumbles again
6:45am: Financial services giant records $5.1 billion loss, missing forecasts, after taking more than $12 billion in writedowns.
Oil nears $115, gas gets pricier
E*Trade cuts back as recession looms (not here yet?)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/72846-google-inc-q1-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo (Goog transcript) 51% of rev's from overseas
Yahoo! appears to be pushing its luck. On April 10, the struggling Internet portal said it was testing a partnership to allow Google to host a small percentage of its search advertisements for two weeks. On Thursday, a week later, it inched further toward a long-term deal with Google because the companies are pleased with the initial results of the experiment, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The problem, as Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) pointed out in a statement last week, is that any potential deal between Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) and Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) raises antitrust concerns: Google receives 67% of all searches, and Yahoo! hosts 20%, according to March data from Web traffic analysis firm Hitwise. Combined, the two would represent a near monopoly of the search market.
Sharing its ad space with Google would also mean a quick revenue bump for Yahoo!, thanks to Google's higher percentage of clicks on ads. But just how far can a Yahoo! and Google liaison go?
"I hate to admit it, but Microsoft is right," asserts Robert Lande, a member of the American Antitrust Institute. "The closer Google and Yahoo! get to a deal, the closer they get to some very serious antitrust problems."
At the same time,
SOMETHING IS FISHY>????
GOOG 4% QTR OVER QTR???!!
But Google said so-called paid clicks grew 20% in the first quarter over the same year-ago quarter, and 4% over 2007's fourth quarter.
Google is only paid by its search advertisers when users click on such links.
Recent data from comScore Inc. has shown tepid paid-click growth during the first quarter, stirring concerns about the impact of the U.S. economic slowdown on Google and helping send its shares more than 30% lower between the beginning of the year and Thursday's earnings report.
Earlier this week, comScore reported that Google's paid clicks rose only 1.8% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier, though its data don't include Google's international search markets. Google said Thursday that its paid clicks actually grew 20% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier.
During a conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Eric Schmidt noted that the paid-click growth was "much higher than has been speculated by third parties."
Still, Google's 20% paid-click growth nonetheless marked a slowdown compared with the 30% growth in Google's previous, fourth fiscal quarter.
That's because the company, according to Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal, seems to be making the most out of the clicks that it's managing to get. "Maybe they are getting higher keyword prices from their advertisers. It was a beat quarter."
Part of that maturation has involved overseas expansion. Google announced that its international revenue reached $2.65 billion, or 51% of its total, compared with 47% of the total in the same period a year earlier.
BULLISH? CNBC
Seems like a lot of short covering, but the theory is...what? Earnings out, brokers unlikely to get worse? Well, sort of. As one trader in financials noted to me, "earnings have to be real bad, not just in line" to keep short positions on.
That's true, but the case for getting bullish is broader than that. Simply put, here's out the bulls are explaining it to me:
1) The write downs mean anything anymore, the story is old, the numbers are meaningless.
2) Probably one or two more rounds of it but the sentiment doesnt really change that much.
3) They are historically cheap, they have survived the meltdown and had no problems raising outside capital.
The downside to this game, as others have noted, is that if the quarter progresses and business is not getting any better, shorts will go right back on again.
6:45am: Financial services giant records $5.1 billion loss, missing forecasts, after taking more than $12 billion in writedowns.
Oil nears $115, gas gets pricier
E*Trade cuts back as recession looms (not here yet?)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/72846-google-inc-q1-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo (Goog transcript) 51% of rev's from overseas
Yahoo! appears to be pushing its luck. On April 10, the struggling Internet portal said it was testing a partnership to allow Google to host a small percentage of its search advertisements for two weeks. On Thursday, a week later, it inched further toward a long-term deal with Google because the companies are pleased with the initial results of the experiment, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The problem, as Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) pointed out in a statement last week, is that any potential deal between Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) and Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) raises antitrust concerns: Google receives 67% of all searches, and Yahoo! hosts 20%, according to March data from Web traffic analysis firm Hitwise. Combined, the two would represent a near monopoly of the search market.
Sharing its ad space with Google would also mean a quick revenue bump for Yahoo!, thanks to Google's higher percentage of clicks on ads. But just how far can a Yahoo! and Google liaison go?
"I hate to admit it, but Microsoft is right," asserts Robert Lande, a member of the American Antitrust Institute. "The closer Google and Yahoo! get to a deal, the closer they get to some very serious antitrust problems."
At the same time,
SOMETHING IS FISHY>????
GOOG 4% QTR OVER QTR???!!
But Google said so-called paid clicks grew 20% in the first quarter over the same year-ago quarter, and 4% over 2007's fourth quarter.
Google is only paid by its search advertisers when users click on such links.
Recent data from comScore Inc. has shown tepid paid-click growth during the first quarter, stirring concerns about the impact of the U.S. economic slowdown on Google and helping send its shares more than 30% lower between the beginning of the year and Thursday's earnings report.
Earlier this week, comScore reported that Google's paid clicks rose only 1.8% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier, though its data don't include Google's international search markets. Google said Thursday that its paid clicks actually grew 20% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier.
During a conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Eric Schmidt noted that the paid-click growth was "much higher than has been speculated by third parties."
Still, Google's 20% paid-click growth nonetheless marked a slowdown compared with the 30% growth in Google's previous, fourth fiscal quarter.
That's because the company, according to Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal, seems to be making the most out of the clicks that it's managing to get. "Maybe they are getting higher keyword prices from their advertisers. It was a beat quarter."
Part of that maturation has involved overseas expansion. Google announced that its international revenue reached $2.65 billion, or 51% of its total, compared with 47% of the total in the same period a year earlier.
BULLISH? CNBC
Seems like a lot of short covering, but the theory is...what? Earnings out, brokers unlikely to get worse? Well, sort of. As one trader in financials noted to me, "earnings have to be real bad, not just in line" to keep short positions on.
That's true, but the case for getting bullish is broader than that. Simply put, here's out the bulls are explaining it to me:
1) The write downs mean anything anymore, the story is old, the numbers are meaningless.
2) Probably one or two more rounds of it but the sentiment doesnt really change that much.
3) They are historically cheap, they have survived the meltdown and had no problems raising outside capital.
The downside to this game, as others have noted, is that if the quarter progresses and business is not getting any better, shorts will go right back on again.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
SPX 1400 RESISTANCE
**CLICK CHART TO ENLARGEIt's normal during bear rallies to rise and challenge the declining Moving Avg's, until I SEE differently, I remain defensive against a weekly close above this area, then I wil reasess.
GOOG up huge in AH trading, see is bulls can grab the ball and run with it. technology has been showing relative strength here.
Duratek
BILL BUCKLER OF PRIVATEER
BEST OF BILL BUCKLER
http://www.gloomdoom.com/thebestofbb04-10-08.html
April 10, 2008
After the many dramatic events over the past two weeks - we're all saved! At least that is the message being preached in the US.
The Dow is above 12,000 again. The S&P 500 is above 1300. The US Dollar even had a global rally in the lead-up to Easter. Its nemesis, Gold, fell nearly $US 86 in three trading days and Oil went back to $US 100.
That General Perception Is Entirely False:
In principle, not one economic or financial issue has been solved or even addressed. All the fundamental US problems are still there. They have been literally papered over. The Fed cut interest rates and slammed still more new fresh money into the US financial system to keep it liquid. The Fed is exposing its own balance sheet to an amazing degree, offering up $US 400 Billion in Treasuries as short duration "swaps" in return for unmarketable toxic sludge of US mortgage paper.
The Fed had held about $US 800 Billion in Treasury paper, paper that it acquired by "monetising" the US Treasury's debts. This paper is at the core of the Fed's financial holdings. It is the Fed's major "asset". Now, by having sent $US 400 Billion out the door, the Fed has in fact sold down its capital by half. Please note here that the Fed's liabilities – the US Federal Reserve Notes (US Dollars) - have not fallen in quantity.
If any private financial company had done what the Fed has done, most people in finance would instantly recognise that its liability to asset ratio had doubled. That alone would make holding its liabilities, US Dollars, much more dangerous. What is certain is that the Fed cannot repeat what it has just done. To do so would strip it entirely of capital on its own balance sheet. If the Fed is not now "done" - then it is done for!
A Financial Strategic Overview Of The US:
There are three main economic forces at work inside the US economy. The first is monetary and financial and involves an involuntary de-leveraging of US banks and financial institutions. Everybody is trying to contract credit issued while holding the cash still rolling in. This is contracting the volume of credit quite dramatically and adding to the liquidity crisis inside the US. The second is the situation inside the US economy as it rolls into recession, seen in the fact that nearly nine million US households now have "upside down" mortgages. For the first time ever, aggregate mortgage debt is bigger, by $US 836 Billion, than the total value of homeowner equity. A credit contraction augmented by (real estate) price deflation is a huge monetary and economic force. These two forces are mercilessly squeezing the third force, which is the Fed (aided by the US Treasury). The Fed is caught in a vice from which there is no escape.
The Walls Are Closing In On The Fed:
On March 18, the Fed Funds rate was cut by 0.75 percent to 2.25 percent. The Discount Rate was cut by 0.75 percent - after having been cut by 0.25 percent two days previously – to 2.50 percent. Here too the Fed's back is up against the wall. Having exposed its capital to genuine market risk, the Fed cannot make a similar move again or it would stand stripped of all its core capital.
In terms of the interest rates it offers to US banks and other US financial institutions, a few more emergency cuts would put the Fed in the same position as the Bank of Japan with rates of 0.5 percent. The Fed Funds rate is absurd with US internal consumer prices climbing at 4.3 percent annually.
The Climbing Danger To The US Dollar AND The US Treasury:
The alarm bells should be ringing all over New York and in Washington DC. Foreigners have noticed these recent massive falls in the US Dollar. On their own balance sheets, when accounted back into their own currencies, they are looking at enormous losses. So far, these losses have not been brought to book since that would knock huge holes in the balance sheets of their own commercial banks' and other financial institutions which hold US Dollars and/or US paper assets. That will come later this year. Most private banks normally only have to report in depth once a year. When large losses start appearing on the books of a bank - and they will - the usual reaction is a buyers' strike, followed by sales of the "asset".
International investors are now avoiding US financial assets, making it harder for the Treasury to fund a growing budget deficit. NET sales of US stocks and bonds by private foreign investors totalled $US 38.2 Billion in January, the most since September, the US Treasury Department reported on March 17.
This is the precise point where any further cuts in interest rates by the US Fed become deadly dangerous. The Fed could end up in a situation where its official interest rates are so low that no foreign buyers show up at a scheduled US Treasury auction! Were that to happen, it would be like a global call to all the rest of the world to STOP CREDIT to the USA! We are not there yet, but foreigners are slowly leaving.
To see this, examine what happened to Bear Stearns the week before it nearly crashed. It could not borrow funds from anywhere but it still had its scheduled payments to meet. In mid March, Bear Stearns' cash holdings fell from $US 17 Billion to less than $US 2 Billion. This is the direction in which the US Treasury is now heading. If the US Treasury cannot borrow from foreign sources of money, it cannot fund its fast climbing budget deficit! But the Treasury too still has to pay money out to finance the US government's $US 3 TRILLION plus budget. When the Treasury's till is empty, it will have to send all the sequential truckloads of debt paper over to the Fed, which will have to accept all it gets. Then, the Treasury's debts will be "monetised" to an extent never
seen before!
It is this, a Fed "monetisation" of US Treasury debt paper - where the Fed creates new US Dollars as fast as US Treasury's debts arrive - which is the greatest danger to the international value of the US Dollar.
Travelling Further Along The Road To Weimar:
This process too was a part of the three-year Weimar Republic sequence which destroyed Germany's currency. Back then, even if the German Treasury could report that total tax revenue had climbed by 600 percent, this was totally overpowered by the fact that internal prices in Germany had climbed by 8000 percent over the same time period. In fact, the German Treasury was short of money and government services all across Germany were contracting at ferocious speeds on that account alone.
The need to overcome this involuntary contraction of government services forced the German Treasury to send its debt paper straight over to the central bank which then looked at the face value amounts and printed ever more paper money, simply adding ever more " zeroes" to all of it.
Ó 2008 – The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
http://www.gloomdoom.com/thebestofbb04-10-08.html
April 10, 2008
After the many dramatic events over the past two weeks - we're all saved! At least that is the message being preached in the US.
The Dow is above 12,000 again. The S&P 500 is above 1300. The US Dollar even had a global rally in the lead-up to Easter. Its nemesis, Gold, fell nearly $US 86 in three trading days and Oil went back to $US 100.
That General Perception Is Entirely False:
In principle, not one economic or financial issue has been solved or even addressed. All the fundamental US problems are still there. They have been literally papered over. The Fed cut interest rates and slammed still more new fresh money into the US financial system to keep it liquid. The Fed is exposing its own balance sheet to an amazing degree, offering up $US 400 Billion in Treasuries as short duration "swaps" in return for unmarketable toxic sludge of US mortgage paper.
The Fed had held about $US 800 Billion in Treasury paper, paper that it acquired by "monetising" the US Treasury's debts. This paper is at the core of the Fed's financial holdings. It is the Fed's major "asset". Now, by having sent $US 400 Billion out the door, the Fed has in fact sold down its capital by half. Please note here that the Fed's liabilities – the US Federal Reserve Notes (US Dollars) - have not fallen in quantity.
If any private financial company had done what the Fed has done, most people in finance would instantly recognise that its liability to asset ratio had doubled. That alone would make holding its liabilities, US Dollars, much more dangerous. What is certain is that the Fed cannot repeat what it has just done. To do so would strip it entirely of capital on its own balance sheet. If the Fed is not now "done" - then it is done for!
A Financial Strategic Overview Of The US:
There are three main economic forces at work inside the US economy. The first is monetary and financial and involves an involuntary de-leveraging of US banks and financial institutions. Everybody is trying to contract credit issued while holding the cash still rolling in. This is contracting the volume of credit quite dramatically and adding to the liquidity crisis inside the US. The second is the situation inside the US economy as it rolls into recession, seen in the fact that nearly nine million US households now have "upside down" mortgages. For the first time ever, aggregate mortgage debt is bigger, by $US 836 Billion, than the total value of homeowner equity. A credit contraction augmented by (real estate) price deflation is a huge monetary and economic force. These two forces are mercilessly squeezing the third force, which is the Fed (aided by the US Treasury). The Fed is caught in a vice from which there is no escape.
The Walls Are Closing In On The Fed:
On March 18, the Fed Funds rate was cut by 0.75 percent to 2.25 percent. The Discount Rate was cut by 0.75 percent - after having been cut by 0.25 percent two days previously – to 2.50 percent. Here too the Fed's back is up against the wall. Having exposed its capital to genuine market risk, the Fed cannot make a similar move again or it would stand stripped of all its core capital.
In terms of the interest rates it offers to US banks and other US financial institutions, a few more emergency cuts would put the Fed in the same position as the Bank of Japan with rates of 0.5 percent. The Fed Funds rate is absurd with US internal consumer prices climbing at 4.3 percent annually.
The Climbing Danger To The US Dollar AND The US Treasury:
The alarm bells should be ringing all over New York and in Washington DC. Foreigners have noticed these recent massive falls in the US Dollar. On their own balance sheets, when accounted back into their own currencies, they are looking at enormous losses. So far, these losses have not been brought to book since that would knock huge holes in the balance sheets of their own commercial banks' and other financial institutions which hold US Dollars and/or US paper assets. That will come later this year. Most private banks normally only have to report in depth once a year. When large losses start appearing on the books of a bank - and they will - the usual reaction is a buyers' strike, followed by sales of the "asset".
International investors are now avoiding US financial assets, making it harder for the Treasury to fund a growing budget deficit. NET sales of US stocks and bonds by private foreign investors totalled $US 38.2 Billion in January, the most since September, the US Treasury Department reported on March 17.
This is the precise point where any further cuts in interest rates by the US Fed become deadly dangerous. The Fed could end up in a situation where its official interest rates are so low that no foreign buyers show up at a scheduled US Treasury auction! Were that to happen, it would be like a global call to all the rest of the world to STOP CREDIT to the USA! We are not there yet, but foreigners are slowly leaving.
To see this, examine what happened to Bear Stearns the week before it nearly crashed. It could not borrow funds from anywhere but it still had its scheduled payments to meet. In mid March, Bear Stearns' cash holdings fell from $US 17 Billion to less than $US 2 Billion. This is the direction in which the US Treasury is now heading. If the US Treasury cannot borrow from foreign sources of money, it cannot fund its fast climbing budget deficit! But the Treasury too still has to pay money out to finance the US government's $US 3 TRILLION plus budget. When the Treasury's till is empty, it will have to send all the sequential truckloads of debt paper over to the Fed, which will have to accept all it gets. Then, the Treasury's debts will be "monetised" to an extent never
seen before!
It is this, a Fed "monetisation" of US Treasury debt paper - where the Fed creates new US Dollars as fast as US Treasury's debts arrive - which is the greatest danger to the international value of the US Dollar.
Travelling Further Along The Road To Weimar:
This process too was a part of the three-year Weimar Republic sequence which destroyed Germany's currency. Back then, even if the German Treasury could report that total tax revenue had climbed by 600 percent, this was totally overpowered by the fact that internal prices in Germany had climbed by 8000 percent over the same time period. In fact, the German Treasury was short of money and government services all across Germany were contracting at ferocious speeds on that account alone.
The need to overcome this involuntary contraction of government services forced the German Treasury to send its debt paper straight over to the central bank which then looked at the face value amounts and printed ever more paper money, simply adding ever more " zeroes" to all of it.
Ó 2008 – The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
MER BEATING EXPECTATIONS....IN WRONG WAY
Merrill Lynch posts first-quarter loss amid more write-downs on credit investments
NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch has reported a steep first-quarter loss after more write-downs related to the troubled credit markets.
The world's largest brokerage says it lost $2.14 billion, or $2.19 per share, compared to a profit of $2.11 billion, or $2.26 per share, a year earlier. Revenue has fallen 69 percent to $2.93 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier.
Thomson Financial says analysts expected a loss of $1.99 per share on $3.7 billion of revenue.
New York-based Merrill says it wrote down $1.5 billion related to troubled debt instruments and took a $3 billion adjustment related to protection on certain kinds of debt.
Watch 1400 on SPX if broken and held could be important....no matter what facts abound....did the FEd do enough and forstall the DAY OF RECKONING?
D
NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch has reported a steep first-quarter loss after more write-downs related to the troubled credit markets.
The world's largest brokerage says it lost $2.14 billion, or $2.19 per share, compared to a profit of $2.11 billion, or $2.26 per share, a year earlier. Revenue has fallen 69 percent to $2.93 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier.
Thomson Financial says analysts expected a loss of $1.99 per share on $3.7 billion of revenue.
New York-based Merrill says it wrote down $1.5 billion related to troubled debt instruments and took a $3 billion adjustment related to protection on certain kinds of debt.
Watch 1400 on SPX if broken and held could be important....no matter what facts abound....did the FEd do enough and forstall the DAY OF RECKONING?
D
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
LONG TERM DOW CHART
**CLICK TO ENLARGE CHARTAreas I have drawn I think are support and resistance, if 2008 lows go good chance we go to 10,000, we now connect 2000 top with 2008 lows for that trend line.
If 10,000 goes I think we test 2002 lows...crazy right? 14,000 top is the HEAD....we have beuilt left now right shoulder http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
Recent action in trading range still, but weakish
D
FINANCIAL TSUNAMI
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html
For those who haven't read, this guy was one of first to sound alarms, so INTELLIGENTLY DONE!
D
For those who haven't read, this guy was one of first to sound alarms, so INTELLIGENTLY DONE!
D
ED WALLACE'S WEB SITE
http://www.insideautomotive.com/
Interesting guy, some great resources and reads, especially on the ETHANOL SCAM.
Nothing will change until we together demand it.....
Welcome to my blog Monique, always great talking to you, hope you find something of interest!
D
Interesting guy, some great resources and reads, especially on the ETHANOL SCAM.
Nothing will change until we together demand it.....
Welcome to my blog Monique, always great talking to you, hope you find something of interest!
D
"BAD MONEY" INTERVIEW ON NPR
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89642189
Kevin Phillips
or
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=89642189&m=89642143&live=1
"Knowledge is POWER" "the US $$ is the gladiator, and it's bleeding on the field"
Duratek
Kevin Phillips
or
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=89642189&m=89642143&live=1
"Knowledge is POWER" "the US $$ is the gladiator, and it's bleeding on the field"
Duratek
THE ONE BOOK YOU SHOULD READ NOW!
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08097/870372-148.stm?cmpid=entertainment.xml
Prepare for LEAN YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, power is shifting away from the US as we become net debtor ot the world....where foreign sovereign funds have to BAIL US OUT.
D
Prepare for LEAN YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, power is shifting away from the US as we become net debtor ot the world....where foreign sovereign funds have to BAIL US OUT.
D
Friday, April 11, 2008
GE MISSES
GE Posts Lower 1Q Profit, Cuts Outlook- AP
General Electric Co. reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit on Friday and lowered its outlook for the full year, sending its shares down almost 10 percent in premarket trading as a slowing U.S. economy sapped its financial services business.
WHen was last time GE MISSED? GE IS LIKE A CROSSSECTION OF OUR ECONOMY...WEAKNESS WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THEIR BUSINESSES
IMPORT prices up 1.1$ EX OIL???? largest jump in 20-30 years??? CAN FED KEEP LOWERING??? US $$ GETTING DUMPED AM. TREND IS OBVIOUS http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
....... Russel calling BULL from 1980 never ended....Brinker new highs for 2008......where is that light?
D
General Electric Co. reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit on Friday and lowered its outlook for the full year, sending its shares down almost 10 percent in premarket trading as a slowing U.S. economy sapped its financial services business.
WHen was last time GE MISSED? GE IS LIKE A CROSSSECTION OF OUR ECONOMY...WEAKNESS WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THEIR BUSINESSES
IMPORT prices up 1.1$ EX OIL???? largest jump in 20-30 years??? CAN FED KEEP LOWERING??? US $$ GETTING DUMPED AM. TREND IS OBVIOUS http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
....... Russel calling BULL from 1980 never ended....Brinker new highs for 2008......where is that light?
D
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
DOUBLE EDGED SWORD CUTTING ACROSS AMERICA SLASHING PROFITS
MUSCATINE, Iowa (AP) -- HNI Corp. missed expectations in the first quarter because a deteriorating economy and waning consumer confidence are eating into sales, the home and office furniture maker said Wednesday.
The company said sales and profit in the office furniture segment declined significantly in the first quarter, falling 6 percent because of weak sales to small office and home office customers.
Swelling costs for materials and plant consolidations are also eating into profit, the company said.
The company said sales and profit in the office furniture segment declined significantly in the first quarter, falling 6 percent because of weak sales to small office and home office customers.
Swelling costs for materials and plant consolidations are also eating into profit, the company said.
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