>>The Baltic Dry Index is an index covering dry bulk shipping rates and managed by the Baltic Exchange in London. According to Baltic Exchange, the index provides:
an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers supramax, panamax and capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
The index is made up of an average of the Baltic Supramax, Panamax and Capesize indices. These indices are based on professional assessments made by a panel of international shipbroking companies.<<
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
WHY ARE THE MARKETS GOING UP???
Is it all about "ROTATION"......are those "FREE" FED Treasuries being converted into stock purchases? WATCH INT RATES CLOSELY IMHO
Read this from an intelligent poster on another board friend sent me:
When is it going to sink in again?
mannfm11
NEW 5/6/2008 11:25:42 PM
That we are in a real mess? I think we are about to see a real crisis, the quasi public banks like the Fed, FHLB and the GSE's going into crisis. If you read the agreements behind this auction stuff, the Fed has the right to require repurchase or to sell the stuff any time they get ready. Since the books only have to balanced overnight, this stuff is actually repoed daily. What happens if the bank that has the stuff can't perform and the Fed is suddenly stuck with some illiquid stuff? Well, I would venture the taxpayer gets the bill until the Fed earns enough money to pay back the government. The government, probably in return for the New Deal owns 100% of the profits of the Fed, save the preferred stock dividend. The Federal Home Loan banks are somewhat different and I don't know how they work. It seems though that they might be somewhat like FNMA and FHLMC, except I don't exactly know how. I do know I read recently the one in Chicago and the one in Dallas were discussing a merger, which tells me they aren't exactly public entities any more. I am wondering what happens to the bank that has propped up CFC? I don't think CFC is going away as a problem and it will be bigger than Bear. There are significant problems that have nothing but a band-aid on them. The auction loans are one of them, as they are nothing more than a method of keeping insolvents solvent until hope and time bail them out. They are clearly hoping that bad paper can in fact rise from the grave and walk on water, across the Pacific to some sucker fund in China. Surely the world isn't so stupid as to make more deals for Wall Street junk? One thing that I keep bringing up that they keep bringing someone to the table on CNBC is that credit problems like these cause economic problems and I am not talking about cyclical recessions. FNM needs another $6 billion. How much is Merrill going to need the next go around? When is Goldman going to come clean with the losses out of their $60 billion in level 3 assets? When is Wells Fargo going to come clean with its mortgage losses, as it is next to impossible for me to believe that everyone in that business made across the board bad loans except them? We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg on the prime mortgage front of losses from mortgages. Truth is the good stuff was junk and the junk was basically akin to making loans to heroin junkies. There is a supply problem in housing. Nothing is going to make this go away except a hell of a lot of well to do population. Wetbacks from Mexico aren't going to float the housing market at todays prices or even prices 50% of todays prices. It is clear the consumer credit game isn't going to be the same and corporate profits are fueled with consumer bucks. Consumer spending isn't 70% of the economy, it is all the economy either directly or indirectly. Same for the rest of the world. 5% of the US economy is somewhere around $600 billion depending on whose figures you believe. This is about what is going to be missing out of home equity extraction due to refinance or sale the next few years. It is the entire trade deficit, something that has fed the rest of the world with money to create a boom. But, that money is now owed, not free to circulate and there has to be some new real credit. Credit that was being created by virtue of a myriad of derivatives that no longer can be marketed. These CDO losses I can assure you will be more than subprime mortgages by the time they are done.The boom was perpetuated by subprime financing. The other side of this game is the long term investment projects are in full swing, but at some point it is going to be clear that the money was loaned at too low a rate, according to Mises, and the game is going to fall apart. The game is being played in China, but it is being financed by American consumer credit. It won't be long before they suddenly realize they don't have money to finish what they started and the minerals game comes back to earth. They aren't breaking their necks to keep the American financials afloat because they like losing money, but because they need the fresh money created in the US. There are some statistics that tell us the game is coming back. I don't think the consumer balance sheet and some of the more speculative ventures are going to work. I don't think gasoline is the drag it is said to be, but more the idea that the consumer is out of credit and it is going to be that much more difficult to balance the trade balance. Ditto China and Asia, which could be sending more money to the US in trade, but having to send it to OPEC instead. One thing I read a long time ago was that 80% of GDP was the real valuation line for the entire stock market capitalization and we are still way above that, probably in the 140% range. 3% was the dividend rate that capped markets for the past century, but not now. It is clear that only financial bubbles prop markets at these rates. The bulls like to spout a lot of statistics, but few of them are true. The SPX reached it old top solely because stock buybacks reduce the divisor, while dividends don't. Had they back adjusted for the roughly $200 billion to $300 billion shortfall in dividends for the past 10 years, it would have clearly shrunk. Stock buybacks do little for the holder of stock other than increase his proportion of ownership only so far as the stock remains out of the market. It is what used to be called for tax purposes, a partial liquidation. The Dow is up only by virtue of some by chance almost perfect portfolio management. If we reversed the Dow splits and then allowed for the portfolio changes, we would have a hard time having a real new high in the Dow from 2000. There was 60 points of losses saved in the split of GE alone, not to mention another 100 roughly out of the split of INTC. Prior to the last inclusion of new companies, I think BAC and Chevron (CVT?) were put in place of MO and HON, just to make the index match the split adjusted points of 1/14/00, it took 12,610 to reach a real new high. Had they left these lost points in the index, the Dow would be even another 1000 points lower. Quite interesting, MO put about 500 points on the Dow, then they threw it out before it could be bashed apart. The Nasdaq also shows the bear never really ended, only making 50% of its prior high while the big cap NDX, never got close to 50% of its old high.I think this is a speculators market, which means that not one thing I have written means a damn thing, not even the news going forward. What it does mean is that buy and hold to make money in stocks is dead. There is no doubt until the true valuations are back in stocks in the market in general, holding for long term real gains is not going to work for a good while and faces a highly risky near future. No one with a brain would hold any portfolio of stocks, unless they knew how to rotate around losses.
Read this from an intelligent poster on another board friend sent me:
When is it going to sink in again?
mannfm11
NEW 5/6/2008 11:25:42 PM
That we are in a real mess? I think we are about to see a real crisis, the quasi public banks like the Fed, FHLB and the GSE's going into crisis. If you read the agreements behind this auction stuff, the Fed has the right to require repurchase or to sell the stuff any time they get ready. Since the books only have to balanced overnight, this stuff is actually repoed daily. What happens if the bank that has the stuff can't perform and the Fed is suddenly stuck with some illiquid stuff? Well, I would venture the taxpayer gets the bill until the Fed earns enough money to pay back the government. The government, probably in return for the New Deal owns 100% of the profits of the Fed, save the preferred stock dividend. The Federal Home Loan banks are somewhat different and I don't know how they work. It seems though that they might be somewhat like FNMA and FHLMC, except I don't exactly know how. I do know I read recently the one in Chicago and the one in Dallas were discussing a merger, which tells me they aren't exactly public entities any more. I am wondering what happens to the bank that has propped up CFC? I don't think CFC is going away as a problem and it will be bigger than Bear. There are significant problems that have nothing but a band-aid on them. The auction loans are one of them, as they are nothing more than a method of keeping insolvents solvent until hope and time bail them out. They are clearly hoping that bad paper can in fact rise from the grave and walk on water, across the Pacific to some sucker fund in China. Surely the world isn't so stupid as to make more deals for Wall Street junk? One thing that I keep bringing up that they keep bringing someone to the table on CNBC is that credit problems like these cause economic problems and I am not talking about cyclical recessions. FNM needs another $6 billion. How much is Merrill going to need the next go around? When is Goldman going to come clean with the losses out of their $60 billion in level 3 assets? When is Wells Fargo going to come clean with its mortgage losses, as it is next to impossible for me to believe that everyone in that business made across the board bad loans except them? We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg on the prime mortgage front of losses from mortgages. Truth is the good stuff was junk and the junk was basically akin to making loans to heroin junkies. There is a supply problem in housing. Nothing is going to make this go away except a hell of a lot of well to do population. Wetbacks from Mexico aren't going to float the housing market at todays prices or even prices 50% of todays prices. It is clear the consumer credit game isn't going to be the same and corporate profits are fueled with consumer bucks. Consumer spending isn't 70% of the economy, it is all the economy either directly or indirectly. Same for the rest of the world. 5% of the US economy is somewhere around $600 billion depending on whose figures you believe. This is about what is going to be missing out of home equity extraction due to refinance or sale the next few years. It is the entire trade deficit, something that has fed the rest of the world with money to create a boom. But, that money is now owed, not free to circulate and there has to be some new real credit. Credit that was being created by virtue of a myriad of derivatives that no longer can be marketed. These CDO losses I can assure you will be more than subprime mortgages by the time they are done.The boom was perpetuated by subprime financing. The other side of this game is the long term investment projects are in full swing, but at some point it is going to be clear that the money was loaned at too low a rate, according to Mises, and the game is going to fall apart. The game is being played in China, but it is being financed by American consumer credit. It won't be long before they suddenly realize they don't have money to finish what they started and the minerals game comes back to earth. They aren't breaking their necks to keep the American financials afloat because they like losing money, but because they need the fresh money created in the US. There are some statistics that tell us the game is coming back. I don't think the consumer balance sheet and some of the more speculative ventures are going to work. I don't think gasoline is the drag it is said to be, but more the idea that the consumer is out of credit and it is going to be that much more difficult to balance the trade balance. Ditto China and Asia, which could be sending more money to the US in trade, but having to send it to OPEC instead. One thing I read a long time ago was that 80% of GDP was the real valuation line for the entire stock market capitalization and we are still way above that, probably in the 140% range. 3% was the dividend rate that capped markets for the past century, but not now. It is clear that only financial bubbles prop markets at these rates. The bulls like to spout a lot of statistics, but few of them are true. The SPX reached it old top solely because stock buybacks reduce the divisor, while dividends don't. Had they back adjusted for the roughly $200 billion to $300 billion shortfall in dividends for the past 10 years, it would have clearly shrunk. Stock buybacks do little for the holder of stock other than increase his proportion of ownership only so far as the stock remains out of the market. It is what used to be called for tax purposes, a partial liquidation. The Dow is up only by virtue of some by chance almost perfect portfolio management. If we reversed the Dow splits and then allowed for the portfolio changes, we would have a hard time having a real new high in the Dow from 2000. There was 60 points of losses saved in the split of GE alone, not to mention another 100 roughly out of the split of INTC. Prior to the last inclusion of new companies, I think BAC and Chevron (CVT?) were put in place of MO and HON, just to make the index match the split adjusted points of 1/14/00, it took 12,610 to reach a real new high. Had they left these lost points in the index, the Dow would be even another 1000 points lower. Quite interesting, MO put about 500 points on the Dow, then they threw it out before it could be bashed apart. The Nasdaq also shows the bear never really ended, only making 50% of its prior high while the big cap NDX, never got close to 50% of its old high.I think this is a speculators market, which means that not one thing I have written means a damn thing, not even the news going forward. What it does mean is that buy and hold to make money in stocks is dead. There is no doubt until the true valuations are back in stocks in the market in general, holding for long term real gains is not going to work for a good while and faces a highly risky near future. No one with a brain would hold any portfolio of stocks, unless they knew how to rotate around losses.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
THE GAME PLAN
Meatpuddle *(poster from another board)
Chateau Mouton Rothschild Online
This is THE story. Forget about the stock market, that is meaningless and easy to control (for now). Large FCB (foreign central bank) purchases of agencies and treasuries have kept rates artificially low for a LONG TIME and have led to added "slosh", some of which undoubtedly winds up in the stock market. Here's the downside: As the US economy slows and the dollar falls, the perpetual dollar-recyclers (Arabs and Asians) are having a hard time pegging their currencies with the reduced net inflows so they must print to make up the difference. This printing (not in USD but in foreign currencies) is leading to a crack-up-boom in the commodity complex and is leading to food riots, hoarding, civil unrest, etc. in those countries and a small amount of this even in the US.Now some may be asking, "why would the recyclers continue this when they are stoking hyperinflation in their own currencies?" and this is a good question that I can sum up with a simple phrase: Godfather Protection Racket. So our fleet is stationed in the gulf to provide "protection" to those oil-producing nations that still want to maintain USD pegs and give support to fictitious capital and US bond bubbles. For those that choose not to support the GSE’s and bond bubble, well they might not get our protection and then who can say what bad things might happen to them? So basically they have no choice but to make large blank-check purchases. In order to facilitate this recycling, oil especially must be very high in price. This (somewhat) offsets the reduced demand and gives the Arabs some cash to recycle back into treasuries and GSE debt, but not enough without printing.The above helps explain a lot of the continuing "strength" in the oil markets. The Arabs NEED oil to be very high, and so do the US pigmen. These interest are aligned, albeit at the end of a gun barrel for the Arabs. The end-game is afoot related to all of this and that is basically a gutting of the GSE's by the pigmen. They will drive all of the FCB's into GSE debt (and the FCB have been on an absolute ****ing buying binge recently) and then collapse the GSE's with a feigned liquidity "crises" where they give the FCB's 10 cents on the dollar for the assets in a huge looting operation. This will be similar to the BSC looting operation where certain IB's (with a Fed backstop) will devour the carcass of the GSE's and then the IB's will hold the mountain foreclosures and BINGO the banking insolvency problem is resolved.Gen has said repeatedly that constant trashing of treasury and Fed balance sheets could lead to a TLT collapse, and this is correct. I just wanted to point out that a lot of this trashing is being done on purpose to orchestrate the final looting end-game scenario. Shuffle all of the crap onto the GSE balance sheets and then gut them by engineering a crises and then cherry picking the best stuff. Think BSC or CFC, etc. except on a very large scale.Have you ever asked yourself why the conforming ratios and capital reserve requirements and everything else at the GSE's have been falling into the bilge category? Well now you know the answer. The GSE's are being set up on purpose to implode.
----------"Choose! Choose the form of the Destructor!' The choice is made!" - Gozer"the idea that you're "entitled" to a 5 or 6 percent 30 year mortgage is horse****, and so is the housing prices that it has created." - Genesis
Chateau Mouton Rothschild Online
This is THE story. Forget about the stock market, that is meaningless and easy to control (for now). Large FCB (foreign central bank) purchases of agencies and treasuries have kept rates artificially low for a LONG TIME and have led to added "slosh", some of which undoubtedly winds up in the stock market. Here's the downside: As the US economy slows and the dollar falls, the perpetual dollar-recyclers (Arabs and Asians) are having a hard time pegging their currencies with the reduced net inflows so they must print to make up the difference. This printing (not in USD but in foreign currencies) is leading to a crack-up-boom in the commodity complex and is leading to food riots, hoarding, civil unrest, etc. in those countries and a small amount of this even in the US.Now some may be asking, "why would the recyclers continue this when they are stoking hyperinflation in their own currencies?" and this is a good question that I can sum up with a simple phrase: Godfather Protection Racket. So our fleet is stationed in the gulf to provide "protection" to those oil-producing nations that still want to maintain USD pegs and give support to fictitious capital and US bond bubbles. For those that choose not to support the GSE’s and bond bubble, well they might not get our protection and then who can say what bad things might happen to them? So basically they have no choice but to make large blank-check purchases. In order to facilitate this recycling, oil especially must be very high in price. This (somewhat) offsets the reduced demand and gives the Arabs some cash to recycle back into treasuries and GSE debt, but not enough without printing.The above helps explain a lot of the continuing "strength" in the oil markets. The Arabs NEED oil to be very high, and so do the US pigmen. These interest are aligned, albeit at the end of a gun barrel for the Arabs. The end-game is afoot related to all of this and that is basically a gutting of the GSE's by the pigmen. They will drive all of the FCB's into GSE debt (and the FCB have been on an absolute ****ing buying binge recently) and then collapse the GSE's with a feigned liquidity "crises" where they give the FCB's 10 cents on the dollar for the assets in a huge looting operation. This will be similar to the BSC looting operation where certain IB's (with a Fed backstop) will devour the carcass of the GSE's and then the IB's will hold the mountain foreclosures and BINGO the banking insolvency problem is resolved.Gen has said repeatedly that constant trashing of treasury and Fed balance sheets could lead to a TLT collapse, and this is correct. I just wanted to point out that a lot of this trashing is being done on purpose to orchestrate the final looting end-game scenario. Shuffle all of the crap onto the GSE balance sheets and then gut them by engineering a crises and then cherry picking the best stuff. Think BSC or CFC, etc. except on a very large scale.Have you ever asked yourself why the conforming ratios and capital reserve requirements and everything else at the GSE's have been falling into the bilge category? Well now you know the answer. The GSE's are being set up on purpose to implode.
----------"Choose! Choose the form of the Destructor!' The choice is made!" - Gozer"the idea that you're "entitled" to a 5 or 6 percent 30 year mortgage is horse****, and so is the housing prices that it has created." - Genesis
FNM WOOOOOF (Issuing new shares+ screwing existing shareholders)
Fannie Mae (FNM 28.29) announced this morning plans to increase its capital position by issuing new shares and cutting its dividend. Though the announcement has a dilutive effect on existing shareholders, the plan should help provide a boon for the housing market in the long-term.
The mortgage lender's revenues climbed 28% year-over-year to $3.78 billion. But Fannie Mae still reported a loss of $2.19 billion, or $2.57 per share, for the first quarter. One year ago Fannie Mae earned $961 million, or $0.85 per share.
The negative results were driven by losses from derivatives and trading securities, which totaled $4.4 billion, as well as credit expenses related to higher charge-offs from defaults and loan losses, which totaled $3.2 billion, according to this morning's edition of The Wall Street Journal.
The mortgage credit book of business grew by 3%, and estimated market share increased to approximately 50% of new single-family mortgage-related securities issued.
Core capital totaled $42.7 billion at the end of the quarter, $5.1 billion above the company's current regulatory requirements.
Fannie Mae announced plans to raise $6 billion in new capital through common stock public offerings, noncumulative mandatory convertible preferred stock, noncumulative, nonconvertible preferred stock. The new capital is intended to enhance the company's balance sheet and provide stability to the secondary mortgage market. By increasing its capital base, Fannie Mae can lend additional funds and also increase its protection against future hiccups in its loan portfolio.
According to the company, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), Fannie Mae's watchdog, would reduce the required 20% capital level to 15% upon completing the capital-raising plan. Fannie Mae also said OFHEO indicated the required capital surplus would be trimmed by an additional five percentage points to a 10% surplus requirement in September 2008, based upon the company's continued maintenance of excess capital above its required level. This, of course, assumes no material adverse changes to the company's ongoing regulatory compliance.
As part of Fannie Mae's capital raise, the company will reduce its quarterly dividend. Beginning in the third quarter, the company will cut its dividend to $0.25 per share from $0.35 per share, which will free an additional $390 million of capital per year.
Separately, Fannie Mae is planning a series of initiatives to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the housing and mortgage markets for the long term. The plan intends to keep struggling borrowers in their homes, assist prospective homebuyers, and stabilize communities affected by the mortgage market downturn. Such moves will ultimately help restore the housing market by providing further support to the industry. Such support is essential to helping boost economic health.
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
The mortgage lender's revenues climbed 28% year-over-year to $3.78 billion. But Fannie Mae still reported a loss of $2.19 billion, or $2.57 per share, for the first quarter. One year ago Fannie Mae earned $961 million, or $0.85 per share.
The negative results were driven by losses from derivatives and trading securities, which totaled $4.4 billion, as well as credit expenses related to higher charge-offs from defaults and loan losses, which totaled $3.2 billion, according to this morning's edition of The Wall Street Journal.
The mortgage credit book of business grew by 3%, and estimated market share increased to approximately 50% of new single-family mortgage-related securities issued.
Core capital totaled $42.7 billion at the end of the quarter, $5.1 billion above the company's current regulatory requirements.
Fannie Mae announced plans to raise $6 billion in new capital through common stock public offerings, noncumulative mandatory convertible preferred stock, noncumulative, nonconvertible preferred stock. The new capital is intended to enhance the company's balance sheet and provide stability to the secondary mortgage market. By increasing its capital base, Fannie Mae can lend additional funds and also increase its protection against future hiccups in its loan portfolio.
According to the company, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), Fannie Mae's watchdog, would reduce the required 20% capital level to 15% upon completing the capital-raising plan. Fannie Mae also said OFHEO indicated the required capital surplus would be trimmed by an additional five percentage points to a 10% surplus requirement in September 2008, based upon the company's continued maintenance of excess capital above its required level. This, of course, assumes no material adverse changes to the company's ongoing regulatory compliance.
As part of Fannie Mae's capital raise, the company will reduce its quarterly dividend. Beginning in the third quarter, the company will cut its dividend to $0.25 per share from $0.35 per share, which will free an additional $390 million of capital per year.
Separately, Fannie Mae is planning a series of initiatives to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the housing and mortgage markets for the long term. The plan intends to keep struggling borrowers in their homes, assist prospective homebuyers, and stabilize communities affected by the mortgage market downturn. Such moves will ultimately help restore the housing market by providing further support to the industry. Such support is essential to helping boost economic health.
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
Saturday, May 03, 2008
REVISITING FINANCIAL ARBITRAGE CAPITALISM
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/CreditBubbleBulletinHome Doug Noland, always intelligently written!
Indeed, Washington’s validation of the current dysfunctional Credit system structure could very well lay the groundwork for extreme global price distortions, volatility, and social/political unrest. On the current course of things, it’s difficult for me to not think in terms of NASDAQ 1999 or subprime 2006. Throw additional liquidity on overheated Credit, inflationary, and speculative “biases” and be prepared for the spectacular.
When Financial Arbitrage Capitalism’s excesses were spurring acute U.S. securities market inflation, the system enjoyed a period of perceived rising wealth to go with a boom in Wall Street securities issuance (to help offset inflated demand). When this Structure’s excesses were directed at the Mortgage Finance Bubble, the upshots were inflating home prices along with attendant construction and consumption booms. Now, however, with acute inflationary effects prevailing throughout global markets for food, energy, and commodities, one should be prepared for the likes of problematic supply bottlenecks and shocks, hoarding, trade frictions and interruptions, and generally heightened geopolitical instability.
I argued back in 2002 that the overriding systemic issue was not “deflation” but rather myriad risks associated with an unfolding U.S. Credit Bubble. Now, some years later, these risks have expanded alarmingly, as runaway Credit Bubbles have ballooned both at home and abroad.
Indeed, Washington’s validation of the current dysfunctional Credit system structure could very well lay the groundwork for extreme global price distortions, volatility, and social/political unrest. On the current course of things, it’s difficult for me to not think in terms of NASDAQ 1999 or subprime 2006. Throw additional liquidity on overheated Credit, inflationary, and speculative “biases” and be prepared for the spectacular.
When Financial Arbitrage Capitalism’s excesses were spurring acute U.S. securities market inflation, the system enjoyed a period of perceived rising wealth to go with a boom in Wall Street securities issuance (to help offset inflated demand). When this Structure’s excesses were directed at the Mortgage Finance Bubble, the upshots were inflating home prices along with attendant construction and consumption booms. Now, however, with acute inflationary effects prevailing throughout global markets for food, energy, and commodities, one should be prepared for the likes of problematic supply bottlenecks and shocks, hoarding, trade frictions and interruptions, and generally heightened geopolitical instability.
I argued back in 2002 that the overriding systemic issue was not “deflation” but rather myriad risks associated with an unfolding U.S. Credit Bubble. Now, some years later, these risks have expanded alarmingly, as runaway Credit Bubbles have ballooned both at home and abroad.
Friday, May 02, 2008
BEAR MARKET KILLED?
briefing.com has daily economic data......job "losses" better than expected.....90,000 SERVICE jobs added, huge manufacturing job losses....CNBC heralding the results FUTURES JUMP GREEN!!
The breach above of 80.00 in the US $ index broke a Head and Shoulders formation, US $$ could fall to 40.00 (distance from neckline 80.0 to head 120.0 than subtract from 80) BUT not uncommon to TEST break....this could cause falling commodities, unwinding of that speculation and BACK into equities.
Lasr Fri I put 50% of my 401K cash in to equities....will avg in each week, holding back other 50% for confirmation Bear is dead...or to buy at new lows.
FED has gone ALL OUT to rescue the markets, it may have succeeded....for now.
Recent chart showing price above 20 month moving avg is important......see if BROAD BUYING COMES IN looking for 90% upside volume today for more confirmation some kind of low is IN.
Duratek
Thursday, May 01, 2008
ELLIOT WAVE GUY TONY
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!8139.entry
Like how this guy presents market data.
D
Like how this guy presents market data.
D
BEAR BREAKING POINT
**Click chart above to enlarge. Using this method, if MUCH progress is made and the close stays above the MA shown, the bear may be knocked out, crazy as it sounds....so far it still looks a lot like 2001.....we should know soon.
**click to enlarge.Falling VIX (volatility index) is uaually bullish. If this keeps up Bear is going into hibernation IMHO.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
ART MEETS FUNCTION
This is the business I am in, what a COOL chair around $899, very well made in Germany...all the dealers are asking each other "where has the business gone?"
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
REAL WORLD PROOF 'ALOHA AIR BANKRUPT"
BY RICK DAYSOG
Advertiser Staff Writer
Hawai'i's economy, reeling from the loss of thousands of jobs with the demise of Aloha Airlines' passenger service, the closure of Molokai Ranch and NCL America's decision to pull out two of its ships, now faces the loss of a vital transportation link with the shutdown of Aloha's cargo operations.
Aloha abruptly closed its profitable air freight business yesterday after its lender, GMAC Commercial Finance LLC, cut off financing.
The shutdown means the loss of 300 jobs and the end of a business that handled more than 100 million pounds of cargo each year — about 85 percent of all goods flown between O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands.
The impact will be felt by retailers and wholesalers of time-sensitive consumer items such as baked goods, produce, meat, medical supplies, newspapers, auto parts and construction materials. The move also will affect movement of interisland mail and the flow of cash between local banks and their Neighbor Island branches.
"This is a critical link in the state economy," said Leroy Laney, professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University.
"The shutdown will definitely impact the local economy, and with medical supplies, it could lead to life or death situations."
Gov. Linda Lingle said in a news release that she has had discussions with other cargo operators to find shipping alternatives since Aloha filed for bankruptcy.
Maui Mayor Charmaine Tavares said the impact will be especially hard on local entrepreneurs and farmers who rely on Aloha's daily service.
"I am concerned for both the employees of Aloha Airlines cargo as well as for the many small businesses that will be impacted," Tavares said.
Founded in 1946, Aloha was the state's second-largest airline until it shut down its passenger service on March 31 and terminated 1,900 employees. The closing came 11 days after Aloha filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Aloha said it lost $120 million in two years because of soaring fuel prices and a costly interisland fare war.
Yesterday, Aloha flew its final two afternoon cargo flights. The company canceled six nighttime cargo flights.
Aloha said last night that it was in the process of informing cargo employees about the layoffs.
sale may be affected
The shutdown could also jeopardize the sale of Aloha's 1,100-employee contract services division to Los Angeles-based Pacific Air Cargo.
Pacific Air last week agreed to pay $2.05 million for the unit, which handles ticketing, baggage services, ramp duties and other ground services for carriers that serve Hawai'i.
The deal, which was approved last week by a federal bankruptcy judge, will now have to be reviewed again by a court-appointed bankruptcy trustee.
As of last night, the company's contract services division remained opened.
The layoffs are more bad news for an economy shaken by the shutdown of Molokai Ranch, which resulted in the loss of 120 jobs, and the grounding of Aloha's passenger service, which represented the state's largest-ever mass layoffs.
State lawmakers are now bracing for the impact of the pullout of Norwegian Cruise Lines' two ships, which could rival the 2,200 total jobs lost at Aloha.
"This is one more indicator that our economy is suffering," said state House Speaker Calvin Say.
"It is also a wake-up call for all of us on the importance of our transportation infrastructure."
closure a surprise
The Aloha cargo closure took employees, customers and creditors by surprise, especially because Aloha had at least two bids for its profitable cargo unit.
On March 27, the Seattle-based owner of Young Brothers/Hawaiian Tug & Barge, Saltchuk Resources Inc., signed a letter of intent to purchase the cargo division for $13 million.
And last week, locally based Jupiter Holdings Group bid $13.65 million for the division.
James Wagner, Jupiter's attorney, said the company was prepared to go through with its purchase as recently as yesterday afternoon. But GMAC unexpectedly upped the price to $15 million and required a higher deposit, he said.
Saltchuk, meanwhile, pulled its bid last week after Aloha and GMAC changed the terms of the bidding.
"This all has to do with other parties changing the deal without any warning," Wagner said. "I've been in practice over 30 years and I've never seen a case end like this."
GMAC took the lead in the sale talks because it is owed $44 million by Aloha and has provided money to keep the cargo operations flying after it filed for bankruptcy protection on March 20.
The lender previously threatened to pull the financing for the cargo operations after a dispute with Aloha's pilots.
Aloha pilots laid off with the closure of the passenger service wanted the option to work for the cargo division. Last week, the pilots' union threatened to strike over the issue.
Attorneys for the pilots union and Aloha's unsecured creditors said in bankruptcy court that Aloha will get less than $13 million by shutting down the cargo operations and selling its equipment.
"For GMAC to walk away from legitimate offers makes absolutely no sense at all," added pilot John Riddel. "It's a travesty. This should have never happened. Hundreds of dedicated employees are being victimized today."
Paul Brewbaker, chief economist at the Bank of Hawaii, said it may be some time before competing carriers and cargo operators fill the void left by Aloha.
"This is huge," said Brewbaker. "I don't doubt that somebody will come in and fill the void but in the short-term, anyone who wants to go to market is hung up."
Aloha used six Boeing 737-200 planes solely for interisland cargo. Hawaiian and other carriers take cargo in their passenger planes and don't have aircraft dedicated to cargo.
Brewbaker said it will be more difficult to attract a new competitor to the interisland cargo market than several years ago given turmoil in the nation's credit markets and high fuel prices.
Advertiser Staff Writer
Hawai'i's economy, reeling from the loss of thousands of jobs with the demise of Aloha Airlines' passenger service, the closure of Molokai Ranch and NCL America's decision to pull out two of its ships, now faces the loss of a vital transportation link with the shutdown of Aloha's cargo operations.
Aloha abruptly closed its profitable air freight business yesterday after its lender, GMAC Commercial Finance LLC, cut off financing.
The shutdown means the loss of 300 jobs and the end of a business that handled more than 100 million pounds of cargo each year — about 85 percent of all goods flown between O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands.
The impact will be felt by retailers and wholesalers of time-sensitive consumer items such as baked goods, produce, meat, medical supplies, newspapers, auto parts and construction materials. The move also will affect movement of interisland mail and the flow of cash between local banks and their Neighbor Island branches.
"This is a critical link in the state economy," said Leroy Laney, professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University.
"The shutdown will definitely impact the local economy, and with medical supplies, it could lead to life or death situations."
Gov. Linda Lingle said in a news release that she has had discussions with other cargo operators to find shipping alternatives since Aloha filed for bankruptcy.
Maui Mayor Charmaine Tavares said the impact will be especially hard on local entrepreneurs and farmers who rely on Aloha's daily service.
"I am concerned for both the employees of Aloha Airlines cargo as well as for the many small businesses that will be impacted," Tavares said.
Founded in 1946, Aloha was the state's second-largest airline until it shut down its passenger service on March 31 and terminated 1,900 employees. The closing came 11 days after Aloha filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Aloha said it lost $120 million in two years because of soaring fuel prices and a costly interisland fare war.
Yesterday, Aloha flew its final two afternoon cargo flights. The company canceled six nighttime cargo flights.
Aloha said last night that it was in the process of informing cargo employees about the layoffs.
sale may be affected
The shutdown could also jeopardize the sale of Aloha's 1,100-employee contract services division to Los Angeles-based Pacific Air Cargo.
Pacific Air last week agreed to pay $2.05 million for the unit, which handles ticketing, baggage services, ramp duties and other ground services for carriers that serve Hawai'i.
The deal, which was approved last week by a federal bankruptcy judge, will now have to be reviewed again by a court-appointed bankruptcy trustee.
As of last night, the company's contract services division remained opened.
The layoffs are more bad news for an economy shaken by the shutdown of Molokai Ranch, which resulted in the loss of 120 jobs, and the grounding of Aloha's passenger service, which represented the state's largest-ever mass layoffs.
State lawmakers are now bracing for the impact of the pullout of Norwegian Cruise Lines' two ships, which could rival the 2,200 total jobs lost at Aloha.
"This is one more indicator that our economy is suffering," said state House Speaker Calvin Say.
"It is also a wake-up call for all of us on the importance of our transportation infrastructure."
closure a surprise
The Aloha cargo closure took employees, customers and creditors by surprise, especially because Aloha had at least two bids for its profitable cargo unit.
On March 27, the Seattle-based owner of Young Brothers/Hawaiian Tug & Barge, Saltchuk Resources Inc., signed a letter of intent to purchase the cargo division for $13 million.
And last week, locally based Jupiter Holdings Group bid $13.65 million for the division.
James Wagner, Jupiter's attorney, said the company was prepared to go through with its purchase as recently as yesterday afternoon. But GMAC unexpectedly upped the price to $15 million and required a higher deposit, he said.
Saltchuk, meanwhile, pulled its bid last week after Aloha and GMAC changed the terms of the bidding.
"This all has to do with other parties changing the deal without any warning," Wagner said. "I've been in practice over 30 years and I've never seen a case end like this."
GMAC took the lead in the sale talks because it is owed $44 million by Aloha and has provided money to keep the cargo operations flying after it filed for bankruptcy protection on March 20.
The lender previously threatened to pull the financing for the cargo operations after a dispute with Aloha's pilots.
Aloha pilots laid off with the closure of the passenger service wanted the option to work for the cargo division. Last week, the pilots' union threatened to strike over the issue.
Attorneys for the pilots union and Aloha's unsecured creditors said in bankruptcy court that Aloha will get less than $13 million by shutting down the cargo operations and selling its equipment.
"For GMAC to walk away from legitimate offers makes absolutely no sense at all," added pilot John Riddel. "It's a travesty. This should have never happened. Hundreds of dedicated employees are being victimized today."
Paul Brewbaker, chief economist at the Bank of Hawaii, said it may be some time before competing carriers and cargo operators fill the void left by Aloha.
"This is huge," said Brewbaker. "I don't doubt that somebody will come in and fill the void but in the short-term, anyone who wants to go to market is hung up."
Aloha used six Boeing 737-200 planes solely for interisland cargo. Hawaiian and other carriers take cargo in their passenger planes and don't have aircraft dedicated to cargo.
Brewbaker said it will be more difficult to attract a new competitor to the interisland cargo market than several years ago given turmoil in the nation's credit markets and high fuel prices.
FED LOOKS TO GAIN MORE CONTROL??
March 31, 2008Fed looks at asset-price bubbles in a new light
http://www.dailyreportonline.com/Editorial/News/singleEdit.asp?individual_SQL=3/31/2008@22308&rssFeed=sub
Minneapolis Fed president says long-held hands-off approach can be revisited with 'policies designed to address excesses'BloombergFederal Reserve officials may be rethinking their aversion to acting against asset-price bubbles, an article of faith during former Chairman Alan Greenspan's 18 years at the helm.
After this month's near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., Minneapolis Fed Bank President Gary Stern—the longest-serving policy maker—said in a speech last week that it's possible “to build support” for practices “designed to prevent excesses.” New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, whose district bank took on almost $30 billion of Bear Stearns assets to rescue the firm, argued two years ago for a larger role for asset prices in decision-making, and there's no indication his views have changed.
For Fed policy makers, “the consequences of their permissiveness have become so disastrous that they simply can't keep singing the same old tune in public,” said Tom Schlesinger, executive director at the Financial Markets Center in Howardsville, Va.
While the soul-searching is unlikely to result in immediate changes to monetary policy, Stern's comments show how the credit freeze has forced officials to scrutinize long-held philosophies about the Fed's role in markets, and even ask how their current policies can undercut those views.
“As a risk manager, the Fed needs to take account of both directions, not just dealing with the aftermath,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “We have had two asset-prices bubbles in the last 10 years that have had big implications for the Fed's desire for a more stable macroeconomy.”
Stern's reflection
Stern, 63, has been president of the Minneapolis Fed since 1985 and is currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. In his speech to the European Economics and Financial Centre in London on Thursday, he said that “while I have not yet changed my opinion that asset-price levels should not be an objective of monetary policy, I am reviewing this conclusion in the wake of the fallout from the decline in house prices and from the earlier collapse of prices of technology stocks.”
He added that “it is well within the realm of possibility for policy makers to build support for, and at least obtain tolerance of, policies designed to address excesses.”
Fed officials have spent years wrestling with how to prevent bubbles without damaging the economy through high interest rates, and few have come up with an answer. That's partly because the debate focused on use of the main policy rate instead of regulatory tools.
Greenspan philosophy
For two decades, the ruling philosophy has been Greenspan's. “It is far from obvious that bubbles, even if identified early, can be pre-empted at a lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible financial destabilization,” Greenspan told the American Economic Association in 2004.
“I have always said if we could defuse a nascent asset bubble, I would be all for it,” Greenspan, 82, said in an e- mailed response to a question. “The reason I am against is that in my experience it cannot be done. I know of no occasion when such actions have been successful.”
But his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, and his team now find themselves reconsidering their approach to everything from regulation to the fate of the world's largest securities dealers. The collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has led to $208 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, pushing Bear to the brink of bankruptcy before its purchase by JPMorgan.
In his public remarks, Bernanke, 54, has opposed using interest rates to rein in asset prices, favoring keeping the benchmark rate focused on managing growth and inflation.
Role for regulation
At the same time, he does see a role for regulations to reduce the likelihood of bubbles and protect institutions when they pop. He is also open to using other tools, as his response to the seven-month credit crisis has shown. And if the Fed gets more supervisory responsibility for securities firms, officials are likely to take more interest in policies that can discipline markets and balance incentives, economists said.
“If it is the case that asset prices matter for the intermediation of credit, then they have to worry about it,” said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division, and now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
The Fed has cut the benchmark rate 2 percentage points this year, the fastest pace in two decades. Bernanke has also changed the composition of the Fed balance sheet, absorbing more mortgage bonds, and swapping Treasuries for even private-label and commercial mortgage-backed securities, in effect influencing prices of securities tied to housing.
Bailout 'hazards'
Stern has spoken publicly only seven times in the last year. The Minneapolis president co-authored a 2004 book called “Too Big to Fail: the Hazards of Bank Bailouts,” which concluded that while governments shouldn't avoid public support for creditors of failing banks, they should minimize that backing because of the distortions it produces.
“If someone like that, steeped in the Fed's traditions, opens the door to a new or different approach to policy, we have to take it seriously,” said Robert McTeer, a former president of the Dallas Fed.
http://www.dailyreportonline.com/Editorial/News/singleEdit.asp?individual_SQL=3/31/2008@22308&rssFeed=sub
Minneapolis Fed president says long-held hands-off approach can be revisited with 'policies designed to address excesses'BloombergFederal Reserve officials may be rethinking their aversion to acting against asset-price bubbles, an article of faith during former Chairman Alan Greenspan's 18 years at the helm.
After this month's near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., Minneapolis Fed Bank President Gary Stern—the longest-serving policy maker—said in a speech last week that it's possible “to build support” for practices “designed to prevent excesses.” New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, whose district bank took on almost $30 billion of Bear Stearns assets to rescue the firm, argued two years ago for a larger role for asset prices in decision-making, and there's no indication his views have changed.
For Fed policy makers, “the consequences of their permissiveness have become so disastrous that they simply can't keep singing the same old tune in public,” said Tom Schlesinger, executive director at the Financial Markets Center in Howardsville, Va.
While the soul-searching is unlikely to result in immediate changes to monetary policy, Stern's comments show how the credit freeze has forced officials to scrutinize long-held philosophies about the Fed's role in markets, and even ask how their current policies can undercut those views.
“As a risk manager, the Fed needs to take account of both directions, not just dealing with the aftermath,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “We have had two asset-prices bubbles in the last 10 years that have had big implications for the Fed's desire for a more stable macroeconomy.”
Stern's reflection
Stern, 63, has been president of the Minneapolis Fed since 1985 and is currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. In his speech to the European Economics and Financial Centre in London on Thursday, he said that “while I have not yet changed my opinion that asset-price levels should not be an objective of monetary policy, I am reviewing this conclusion in the wake of the fallout from the decline in house prices and from the earlier collapse of prices of technology stocks.”
He added that “it is well within the realm of possibility for policy makers to build support for, and at least obtain tolerance of, policies designed to address excesses.”
Fed officials have spent years wrestling with how to prevent bubbles without damaging the economy through high interest rates, and few have come up with an answer. That's partly because the debate focused on use of the main policy rate instead of regulatory tools.
Greenspan philosophy
For two decades, the ruling philosophy has been Greenspan's. “It is far from obvious that bubbles, even if identified early, can be pre-empted at a lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible financial destabilization,” Greenspan told the American Economic Association in 2004.
“I have always said if we could defuse a nascent asset bubble, I would be all for it,” Greenspan, 82, said in an e- mailed response to a question. “The reason I am against is that in my experience it cannot be done. I know of no occasion when such actions have been successful.”
But his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, and his team now find themselves reconsidering their approach to everything from regulation to the fate of the world's largest securities dealers. The collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has led to $208 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, pushing Bear to the brink of bankruptcy before its purchase by JPMorgan.
In his public remarks, Bernanke, 54, has opposed using interest rates to rein in asset prices, favoring keeping the benchmark rate focused on managing growth and inflation.
Role for regulation
At the same time, he does see a role for regulations to reduce the likelihood of bubbles and protect institutions when they pop. He is also open to using other tools, as his response to the seven-month credit crisis has shown. And if the Fed gets more supervisory responsibility for securities firms, officials are likely to take more interest in policies that can discipline markets and balance incentives, economists said.
“If it is the case that asset prices matter for the intermediation of credit, then they have to worry about it,” said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division, and now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
The Fed has cut the benchmark rate 2 percentage points this year, the fastest pace in two decades. Bernanke has also changed the composition of the Fed balance sheet, absorbing more mortgage bonds, and swapping Treasuries for even private-label and commercial mortgage-backed securities, in effect influencing prices of securities tied to housing.
Bailout 'hazards'
Stern has spoken publicly only seven times in the last year. The Minneapolis president co-authored a 2004 book called “Too Big to Fail: the Hazards of Bank Bailouts,” which concluded that while governments shouldn't avoid public support for creditors of failing banks, they should minimize that backing because of the distortions it produces.
“If someone like that, steeped in the Fed's traditions, opens the door to a new or different approach to policy, we have to take it seriously,” said Robert McTeer, a former president of the Dallas Fed.
HOUSING DRIVES THE ECONOMY
U.S. Home Foreclosure Rate Soars 112 Percent- AP
The number of U.S. homes heading toward foreclosure more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, as weakening property values and tighter lending left many homeowners powerless to prevent homes from being auctioned to the highest bidder, a research firm said Monday.
Home Prices Plunge at Record Rate of 12.7 Percent- AP
Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Point in Five Years-
The number of U.S. homes heading toward foreclosure more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, as weakening property values and tighter lending left many homeowners powerless to prevent homes from being auctioned to the highest bidder, a research firm said Monday.
Home Prices Plunge at Record Rate of 12.7 Percent- AP
Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Point in Five Years-
Monday, April 28, 2008
MERGE
**CLICK TO ENLARGEYou can see these weekly MA'S merging, declining, especially the important "murphy" 80 week.....these is bocoup resistance near these levels, let's see what happens.
http://www.ft.com/indepth/recession Financial news from afar
D
Saturday, April 26, 2008
WHERE'D THE CONSUMER GO?
OIl's Top
Hard to call a top when in a bull, and oil and nat gas certainly are, is $120 THE blow off top? oil holding well with recent surge in $$ too....unwinding of hedge here maybe not so yet.
Declining economies use LESS OIL, in past RECESSIONS (we are?? haaa)Oil use and price has declined...so if the current oil highs are supported by demand then what holds it up? bubble...
When trading you "go with flow" right? I agree a top price is near...refiners not sharing in glee....pick a botton there?
I AM in retail, there IS a marked slowdown, only the guy in foreclosures is jiggy.....TIMES "The New Austerity" http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1720050_1721656,00.html
Let's recap where we are?
STIGLITZhttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/04/stiglitz-us-facing-long-recession-that.html
We have lost MASSIVE VELOCITY of MONEY and investment....and consumption..=liquidity and credit expansion
WHAT'S DRIED UP?
HELOC'SCDO'SM&A'SIPO'SVENTURE CAPITALLending standards tightened, banks stingyGrowth of adj monetary base stagnantsavings at zeroDeclining home valuesDeclining asset valuesRising inflationStagnant wage growthJob lossesBanks being (investors) sold out to Sovereign FundsConsumer confidence lowers in decades
SO during the long bull mkt we had? CREDIT EXPANSION, and now? WE HAVE CREDIT CONTRACTION
You say.."but stock market not doing so bad considering" many might agree, but we DO get some VERY NICE rallies during BEAR MKTS even some lasting months....
WE DO seem to rally into FED MEETINGS
1400 area is designated TOUGH RESISTANCE, and my friends a SOLID close ON STRONG DEMAND above 1400 are would be convincing...that it got legs.
Recent rally has been decieving, IMHO more lows than highs on falling volume and breadth......we need to see ANY UPCOMING RALLIES COME WITH STRONG DEMAND (upside volume) because w/o it, it cannot last, withdraw of selling alone aint gonna cut it.
Duratek
Hard to call a top when in a bull, and oil and nat gas certainly are, is $120 THE blow off top? oil holding well with recent surge in $$ too....unwinding of hedge here maybe not so yet.
Declining economies use LESS OIL, in past RECESSIONS (we are?? haaa)Oil use and price has declined...so if the current oil highs are supported by demand then what holds it up? bubble...
When trading you "go with flow" right? I agree a top price is near...refiners not sharing in glee....pick a botton there?
I AM in retail, there IS a marked slowdown, only the guy in foreclosures is jiggy.....TIMES "The New Austerity" http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1720050_1721656,00.html
Let's recap where we are?
STIGLITZhttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/04/stiglitz-us-facing-long-recession-that.html
We have lost MASSIVE VELOCITY of MONEY and investment....and consumption..=liquidity and credit expansion
WHAT'S DRIED UP?
HELOC'SCDO'SM&A'SIPO'SVENTURE CAPITALLending standards tightened, banks stingyGrowth of adj monetary base stagnantsavings at zeroDeclining home valuesDeclining asset valuesRising inflationStagnant wage growthJob lossesBanks being (investors) sold out to Sovereign FundsConsumer confidence lowers in decades
SO during the long bull mkt we had? CREDIT EXPANSION, and now? WE HAVE CREDIT CONTRACTION
You say.."but stock market not doing so bad considering" many might agree, but we DO get some VERY NICE rallies during BEAR MKTS even some lasting months....
WE DO seem to rally into FED MEETINGS
1400 area is designated TOUGH RESISTANCE, and my friends a SOLID close ON STRONG DEMAND above 1400 are would be convincing...that it got legs.
Recent rally has been decieving, IMHO more lows than highs on falling volume and breadth......we need to see ANY UPCOMING RALLIES COME WITH STRONG DEMAND (upside volume) because w/o it, it cannot last, withdraw of selling alone aint gonna cut it.
Duratek
US RECESSION MAY ECHO THE 1930's
25 April 2008
Stiglitz: US Recession May Echo the 1930s
Nobel Winner Stiglitz: U.S. Facing Long RecessionBy CNBC.com25 Apr 2008 02:17 PM ETThe U.S. economy is already in recession -- and may echo the 1930s, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday."The big question is: how will the government respond?" said Stiglitz, in an interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 winner of the Nobel prize, detailed his bleak outlook for the American economy.
"This is going to be one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression," said Stiglitz.He explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique—and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of "badly impaired" banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital -- stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition -- and the faith investors and planners have put in it.
"[The Fed] will be between a rock and hard place. And we're not over-worrying about credit. But [simultaneously], we need to start worrying about the real sector," he said.
And if inflation wasn't the prime recession cause, it's still a menace. The professor points to the two-pronged danger of high oil prices joined by climbing food prices, harming businesses and scaring consumers."Oil is particularly bad," as it means that more U.S. dollars "will be going abroad," he said.
The housing downturn is an even worse economic factor than casual observers realized, Stiglitz said. He explained that during the real estate boom, Americans were able to withdraw billions of dollars from their home equity."[But] with housing prices coming down, it's going to be difficult to do that anymore," he said -- drying up a spending source. And within that problem, still another complication: people typically spent the money they drew off their home equity on consumption, rather than investment -- garnering no return on the spending.
"The savings rate as we go into the recession is zero. Which means [savings] will go up, " he said—decreasing consumer spending and weakening retail further.
What about the government stimulus package?"The Bush Administration's response is too little, too late -- and very badly designed," he declared. The amount ostensibly being infused into the economy by tax rebate checks will be a "drop in the bucket" compared to the money being held back and siphoned out by the factors he mentioned."If you really wanted to stimulate the economy, increase unemployment insurance," he suggested. (That would require giving money to the less fortunate which is anathema to 'silver spoon specimens' like Bush. - Jesse)"The president is telling people to go out and get jobs—and there are no jobs for them," he said.
___________________________________________________
"If the American people ever allow private banks [like the Fed] to control the issue of their currency...the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their [fore] fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
Thomas Jefferson, letter to Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin (1802)
"The market is female. Neither you nor I are ever going to figure it out ---- but we just might get lucky from time to time."
Stiglitz: US Recession May Echo the 1930s
Nobel Winner Stiglitz: U.S. Facing Long RecessionBy CNBC.com25 Apr 2008 02:17 PM ETThe U.S. economy is already in recession -- and may echo the 1930s, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday."The big question is: how will the government respond?" said Stiglitz, in an interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 winner of the Nobel prize, detailed his bleak outlook for the American economy.
"This is going to be one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression," said Stiglitz.He explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique—and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of "badly impaired" banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital -- stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition -- and the faith investors and planners have put in it.
"[The Fed] will be between a rock and hard place. And we're not over-worrying about credit. But [simultaneously], we need to start worrying about the real sector," he said.
And if inflation wasn't the prime recession cause, it's still a menace. The professor points to the two-pronged danger of high oil prices joined by climbing food prices, harming businesses and scaring consumers."Oil is particularly bad," as it means that more U.S. dollars "will be going abroad," he said.
The housing downturn is an even worse economic factor than casual observers realized, Stiglitz said. He explained that during the real estate boom, Americans were able to withdraw billions of dollars from their home equity."[But] with housing prices coming down, it's going to be difficult to do that anymore," he said -- drying up a spending source. And within that problem, still another complication: people typically spent the money they drew off their home equity on consumption, rather than investment -- garnering no return on the spending.
"The savings rate as we go into the recession is zero. Which means [savings] will go up, " he said—decreasing consumer spending and weakening retail further.
What about the government stimulus package?"The Bush Administration's response is too little, too late -- and very badly designed," he declared. The amount ostensibly being infused into the economy by tax rebate checks will be a "drop in the bucket" compared to the money being held back and siphoned out by the factors he mentioned."If you really wanted to stimulate the economy, increase unemployment insurance," he suggested. (That would require giving money to the less fortunate which is anathema to 'silver spoon specimens' like Bush. - Jesse)"The president is telling people to go out and get jobs—and there are no jobs for them," he said.
___________________________________________________
"If the American people ever allow private banks [like the Fed] to control the issue of their currency...the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their [fore] fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
Thomas Jefferson, letter to Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin (1802)
"The market is female. Neither you nor I are ever going to figure it out ---- but we just might get lucky from time to time."
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM REVEALED
http://www.modernhistoryproject.org/mhp/ArticleDisplay.php?Article=FinalWarn02-3
These interests control the Federal Reserve through about 300 stockholders:
Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Bank of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Bank of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb and Co. of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York
Goldman, Sachs of New York
SECRETS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm
Thus the proposed Federal Reserve Bank was to be "controlled by Congress" and answerable to the government, but the majority of the directors were to be chosen, "directly or indirectly" by the banks of the association. In the final refinement of Warburg’s plan, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would be appointed by the President of the United States, but the real work of the Board would be controlled by a Federal Advisory Council, meeting with the Governors. The Council would be chosen by the directors of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and would remain unknown to the public.
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/legalcounterfeit.php
It’s the stuff conspiracy theories are made of, but the fact is, twelve people overwhelmingly control the United States economy and they are not elected or appointed by the government. They are known as the Federal Reserve System and may be to blame for the downfall of the American economy.
**THESE ARE ALL MUST READS IMHO.....to be informed is to live, AND NOT BE FOOLED.....to be a fool is to live a lie......you canmake a difference.
Duratek
These interests control the Federal Reserve through about 300 stockholders:
Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Bank of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Bank of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb and Co. of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York
Goldman, Sachs of New York
SECRETS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm
Thus the proposed Federal Reserve Bank was to be "controlled by Congress" and answerable to the government, but the majority of the directors were to be chosen, "directly or indirectly" by the banks of the association. In the final refinement of Warburg’s plan, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would be appointed by the President of the United States, but the real work of the Board would be controlled by a Federal Advisory Council, meeting with the Governors. The Council would be chosen by the directors of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and would remain unknown to the public.
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/legalcounterfeit.php
It’s the stuff conspiracy theories are made of, but the fact is, twelve people overwhelmingly control the United States economy and they are not elected or appointed by the government. They are known as the Federal Reserve System and may be to blame for the downfall of the American economy.
**THESE ARE ALL MUST READS IMHO.....to be informed is to live, AND NOT BE FOOLED.....to be a fool is to live a lie......you canmake a difference.
Duratek
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
BUSINESS IS GREAT!!!
Guy comes in….I say “how’s biz?” he says “biz is GREAT!!!!!!” What biz you in?”
He works with the banks to unload FORECLOSURES!! Been doing this since 1995
“We are selling for 50 cents on dollar” he sets up eviction, fixes up if necessary…..try to sell them fast.
For himself he bought “18 acres in Jarretsville, 3,800 sq foot home built in 1992…..for $520K was listed ? over $800K bank ate rest.
He normally carries about 60 homes in inventory….he now has 200-300….”its taking longer to sell.”
He sees his numbers swelling to near 400…..”It is picking up not slowing down” someone will make a killing here and it wont be the banks
He sees it getting worse as “we haven’t even gotten to the Alternate A homes yet due in next 3 months,,,,” and more subprime…..will take another year and half to clear them out.
GLAD SOMEONE IS BUSY!!
He works with the banks to unload FORECLOSURES!! Been doing this since 1995
“We are selling for 50 cents on dollar” he sets up eviction, fixes up if necessary…..try to sell them fast.
For himself he bought “18 acres in Jarretsville, 3,800 sq foot home built in 1992…..for $520K was listed ? over $800K bank ate rest.
He normally carries about 60 homes in inventory….he now has 200-300….”its taking longer to sell.”
He sees his numbers swelling to near 400…..”It is picking up not slowing down” someone will make a killing here and it wont be the banks
He sees it getting worse as “we haven’t even gotten to the Alternate A homes yet due in next 3 months,,,,” and more subprime…..will take another year and half to clear them out.
GLAD SOMEONE IS BUSY!!
Monday, April 21, 2008
BOTTOM IN PLACE?
http://www.screencast.com/users/LeavittBrothers/folders/Default/media/36549708-5ce0-44f9-9dc9-5cac8924ef6b
Short video by Leavitt brothers, informative.
D
Short video by Leavitt brothers, informative.
D
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