50,000 job losses reported FRI, major corporations paring down departments and seeing 50% whithering of orders, or no back logs.
The MAJOR Banks are on life support and death watch, more than doubling the monetary base in a few short months has not turned this around.
MAJOR BEAR MARKETS (this isn't?) have ended with SINGLE DIGIT PE'S and DIVIE YIELDS North of 6% for SPX. WHAT ARE PROJECTED SPX EARNINGS GOING FORWARD?
Some have suggested falling to maybe $50 and X 10 gives us a SPX at 500 not 850....this is certainly possible.
Historically we find MANY indicators well beyond previous bear mkt bottom extremes, trouble is extremes were hit other way too.....hard to say how much more unwinding we get.....or whether we get Obama bounce, or have we already had it?
D
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
$8 TRILLION GONE AND COUNTING
Those are the lost value of real estate and stock market portfolio's, and so with a handful of $billions...stim we fix everything? WHY do you think GROWING the FED money machine from $800 to near $2 Trillion hasnt righted the ship?
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
It's called DEFLATION. $$$$'s are being DESTROYED.....one's left over more valuable so for now the US grinchback has been rising....in the end it certainly may die in swarm of inflation but for now inflation talk is a JOKE. Golds alure IMHO is safety or this one day inflation comes scenario.
SPX R is 850-857 Trans is near NOV lows......a complete COLLAPSE is possible,,,,maybe some giddyup around O's innauguration.....and the HOPE PLAY.
D
FOR THOSE WHO WERE WONDERING
I do more than write on my blog....I'm the DUDE on BASS! haaaa
PS I DO NOT LIKE the market action.....SDS popped from it's base at$65 to over $80, nice move........now we are red.....weak action
D
Thursday, January 15, 2009
HAMMER TIME
OPEX FRI LOOMS....time to catch greedy bears off guard? reversal today....on news more bank bailouts...oh boy "we got your back!"
D
MARKET SELLOFF ALERT
Yesterday's decline qualified as a 90% down volume day....brutal intense and took the averages below support levels.
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Remember we had been watching the VIX for further weakness but it gained support near 40 and has been rising.
Oversold, again mkt not able to stem the slide, bad sign.....did anyone REALLY expect upbeat economic data?
Hope ain't enough friends....as the layoffs and cuts in spending sprial so do our recovery hopes....
D
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Friday, January 09, 2009
PANICKING FED
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf a DOUBLE OF EXISTING!!!!!!! in less than 4 months
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
REVISIONS to empeloyment report show how reliable it is...MUCH worse
D
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
REALITY BITES
Stocks set to drop as jobs in focus Jan 7: 8:25a
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Markets to consider Alcoa payroll cut and two reports on December employment. (more)
Mortgage applications dip despite low rates
Announced job cuts remain high, firm says
Watch for rise of VIX back above 40 for early warning.....so far sellers have hibernated.
D
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Monday, January 05, 2009
WILL IT MAKE TRIP to 200 Moving Avg?
I had 9200 area as one to watch....VIX has been falling, but still elevated....almost seems like coast is clear? but I dont think it isD
Saturday, January 03, 2009
FED BEHIND THE CURTAIN
The Fed is also focused on two other areas as it seeks to stimulate the economy – financing consumer loans and potential purchases of Treasury bonds.
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
To fund these operations it is expanding bank reserves rapidly – creating money in a similar way to if it were printing dollar bills.
The Fed is eager to increase the size of the financing programme in which it offers low-cost loans to investors who purchase new consumer loans bundled up as asset-backed securities. But to do so it will require more risk capital from the Obama Treasury, since the Fed is not legally permitted to lend with some expected loss.
Fed officials, however, believe they legally can buy Fannie and Freddie securities without limit since these securities are backed by the US government.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ceace2c-d6ca-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html
when you look at ADJ M base…..at least I am scratching head, 75% of all money created in 2 months…..and not working yet?
Friday, January 02, 2009
"NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/30/markets/2009_look_ahead/index.htm?postversion=2009010120
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
Idiots still at the wheel? Are we at "fair value?"
Earnings earnings earnings
Largest collapse in commodities in history
Record LOW yield on 30 yr bond
Record expansion of Adj monetary base
record collapse in housing
Banks still frozen.....NO BOTTOM until we see credit expanding as a trend again IMHO
Not even taking a breather http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
And these genius' will be able to control THIS if it ever gets INTO real economy?
D
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