Thursday, May 07, 2009

CLAIMS AM DATA

The improving trend in initial claims supports the claim that the pace of layoffs is slowing. Unfortunately, the pace of hiring isn't picking up.

With employment considered a lagging indicator, though, the improving trend in initial claims is apt to take precedence for the market, which has embraced the idea that the economy has bottomed out.

Anyone else cheering this data? Can we claim the worst is over? Personally I would pray so....continuing claims continue their upward march.....we arent even close to 300,000 per month...then we cheer.

With pomp hype and cicumstance we could see the 200 EMA's in play....will "smart" money who made EASY money cash out or continue to ride this thing? Will that fabled "sideline" cash feel left out and rush into an overbought market?

D

TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT as % OF GDP back to 1920's


*always click to enlarge charts
Relevant to my long previous post this AM....here is debt as % of GDP going back to last Depression.....look where we are in this cycle! Can a trip back to THE NORM be halted from these EXTREMES?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/07/news/economy/warren_report/index.htm?postversion=2009050703 "CREDIT CRUNCH ALIVE AND WELL!" This does NOT jive with mamoth rally IMHO
D

HEADED DOWN THE SLIPPERY SLOPE AND GOV ROPE-A-DOPE


http://american-armageddon.espacioblog.com/post/2009/03/28/the-debt-binge-consumer-debt-outstanding-and-total-us-debt-and This IS an IMPORTANT READ, please take time to understand what you are looking at.
You can see the "long term averages" and you can SEE where we were at in 1980 the last setup for the GREATEST ECONOMIC BOOM IN HISTORY, the stat of the longest running BULL MKT in history.
Here is ANOTHER IMPORTANT READ.....if you want to understand it will take a huge effort to disect and sift thru the good, bad, ugly and pure BS.
"I think America's in this retail deep freeze," Beemer said. "I think we're going to see it go on for months and months and months."
Meanwhile, only 24.2% of consumers said they feel they have extra cash in their paychecks due to the U.S. government stimulus package, while 73.7 % said they did not.
The stimulus package includes a tax credit that will be paid to many workers in the form of less withholding tax taken out of paychecks, though at $400 annually for single workers, that amounts to only $7.69 a week.
The survey was conducted May 1 through May 3.
WHAT we have is MINIMAL GOV STIMULUS that is effecting the REAL ECONOMY and REAL PEOPLE....what we do got (great English huh?) is expanding GOV and EXPANDING BAILOUTS that DO NOT go directly into the REAL ECONOMY where the BLEEP it is needed!!!!
WHat happens when the GOV spending is increasing at an alarmingly high rate and the economy is SHRINKING by about as much? GOV tax reciepts are WAY DOWN.....so we have a GOV and FED (boy look at their balance sheet now) that is trying to PRINT and TALK their way out of this mess.....the GOV is trying to create the economy....but what it is doing is STARVING it from being able to recover and it is sucking the available monies right away from those also needing it.
I have all my monies in a TREASURY MONEY MARKET (basic MM's are NOT INSURED) and I am basically getting NO INTEREST....NADA!
REAL economies grow from INVESTMENT and MANUFACTURING, and it takes the money from SAVINGS......in a world where the need for monies for DEBT are so dramatic.....the demand so immense; how can interest rates be sitting so low? (though off THE LOWS)
New paper is printed to buy the old paper......WTF is that? OBAMA has taken the BUSH spending batton and out it on steroids......the GOV is competing with the private sector for credit and winning.
WHY isn't our GOV living within its means as we have to? YOU got A coming in you dont spend B to the infinty power.
How do th ebanks out of thin air be declared SOLVENT when the huge amount of paper issued at price X is now in the shitter? SO allowing the honest BANKERS to tell us what that crappy paper is now worth and all of a sudden they show huge profits?
IS THAT SO? hasnt some of the major profit drivers of the banking system been destroyed? IS it off consumer loans? corporate loans? mergers and aquisitions? IPO's? then what?
What is happening now is ANOTHER attempt to REFLATE deflating assets....real estate, stock markets....how? printing it to health.
WHat you can do is not buy into the myth and get OUT OF DEBT PAY IT DOWN....get LIQUID as possible.....try to ride this out.
If Banks arent loaning monies from savings of depositors what then?
My friends we need investment in the PRIVATE ECONOMY, NOT THE GOVERNMENT which is getting bigger, and invading our COnstitutional rights and lives by the minute.
The FED GOV has promised, guaranteed, bailed out equivalent to 89% of our total GDP!
Should we actually recover.....IMHO an INFLATION of extroadianry proportions awaits us.....but DEFLATION is the enemy now.
In 1930 the TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT was 265% of GDP, we rose to 350% this time around......the object is to HEAL and RETURN to the norm....man we couldn't be farther away!
And like I said....just pulled this off
White House: Obama seeks hike in domestic spending- AP
In twin strokes, President Barack Obama is calling on Congress to award generous budget increases to domestic programs while proposing relatively modest cuts to wasteful or obsolete programs that just won't seem to die.
Give the money to the PEOPLE MAN....let US decide where to spend it!

Duratek

STRESS TESTS

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-stress-tests-show-some-apf-15161516.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

= crock of pooo.

What are the value of the paper they hold if it isn't marked to market? WOULD they say ANYTHING negative which would cause a panic? pure BS!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable?source=hp_mostpopular rally sustainable?


D

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

BEARISH RISNG WEDGIE?

IT GOT TO BREAK ONE WAY OR ANOTHER SOON!

CSCO earnings off 24% after close...but beats street HAA. Same old game

Markets are still in bearish config, and it's approaching the 200 EMA (exponential moving avg)
which is normally good resistance for any rally.....sure it can pop over it.....but this rally is getting long IMHO come a long way.

STRESS TESTS (sure) and FRI employment numbers ......if you care to beleive them..

D

ROUBINI ON "BEAR MARKET RALLY"



From April 21st on Bloomberg

D

ROUBINI IN MARCH ON ECONOMY AND BANKING CRISIS

CURRENT BDI CHART


Does not validate US STOCK RALLY IMHO. WHERE IS the pick up in raw material demand to make THINGS?

D

CLOSEUP OF CURRENT RALLY


Tuesday, May 05, 2009

BERNANKE SQUEAKS

BIG BEN TO RESCUE BALD MF

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the country's financial health since the recession struck with force last year.
But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation's unemployment rate and causing "further sizable job losses" in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee. **another 2 sided mouth conversation, friends,what does he see that we dont see? KNowing thathe didnt see THIS coming (EBOLI ECONOMY) and LIED months into it...."this wont leak into economy,,,its contained"
WHY believe this connected insider now? Here's your rally and recovery you paid for out of this air..
D

BULL OR BEAR MARKET. NO NEED TO GUESS


OUT OF WOODS YET?

Oil lingers above $54 on economic recovery hopes (not on demand P/u but on HOPES)

HUGE SWISS BANKS SAYS WORLD ECONOMY CONTINUES TO "WORSEN"

UBS 'cautious' after $1.7 billion loss
Swiss bank says outlook for the firm is cloudy as global economy continues to worsen.

ZURICH (Reuters) -- UBS remained wary on its immediate outlook as it braced for the full impact of the recession after confirming it had posted a first quarter loss on yet more writedowns and client withdrawals.
Despite a strong rebound in stock markets in recent weeks, UBS (UBS) said the global economy has continued to deteriorate and its home market Switzerland will not be spared. The Swiss economy is set to contract by up to 3% this year.
"The markets continue to be unsettled, and we remain cautious on the immediate outlook for UBS," the world's largest wealth manager said in a statement.

Services data AM and Thursday will be?

Banks: The financial sector will remain in focus as investors await the release of the results of the U.S. government's so-called stress tests on banks, which are due out Thursday.
At least 10 of the 19 big banks under review -- including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) -- may need to boost their capital, according to published reports.
Although, the number of reported banks that may need to boost their capital requirements has been fluctuating in the run up to the release of the results.

I will repeat, we are still in a BEAR MKT, and when the trend reasserts itself, MANY will be caught offguard and taken down with it.

D

Monday, May 04, 2009

SOME CHARTS

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p94532429432
Notice during BULL CCi can stay overbought for a year....but during BEAR MKT past and this one notice what HAS happened when CCI weekly reached area its at now.....

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95359378420&a=147023883 this one measures fear/price....see my annotations. MACD wants to signal ,aybe its over at same time ratio has come right back to that channel underside....curious. dbl bottom at 16 was hint of ST bottoming.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78179678834&a=158245127
a move to 200 EMA not unusual. LAST ONE BEARISH RISING WEDGE? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29735166432&a=166742532 still intact...breaking up and over nullifies it....so odd when you see price stop like that.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CYC:$CMR&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74150163626&a=147023766 this sector (buillish?) has had monster move. D

THE VANISHING NEWSPAPER

http://ettlin.blogspot.com/

Sunday, May 03, 2009

IS THE WORST OVER?


EVERY major end to THE BEAR and SEEDS of economic recovery in the past (I am aware of) has been with the ability to GOOSE,JUMP START AND GROW CREDIT EXPANSION......is it different this time?

The ability to do so has been SO impaired, what we have witnessed from 660 SPX has been short covering....I mean the little guy has been short cicuited or unemployed.

401K contributions and wall street bonuses have been decimated. Ability to draw value from your home near eliminated.

Tightening credit standards have excluded MANY from new money.

Credit cards are chock full.

Mark to mkt end has only put a vail over REAL MKT VALUE.

ALt A loans not in mix nor talked about in MEDIA. Commercial loan defaults JUST beginning their turn at ugly cycle putting MORE stress on banks.

Consumer sentiment may have risen with rally, but it IS coming from lowest point in history.

Stock Market has never proven it knows anything. The economy began to weaken in 1998 yet mkt highs were in 2000.

It is ALL about credit/debt expansion to what 350% of GDP total credit market debt (290% in 1930) in the past when this has POPPED it RETURNS US to MEDIAN trend.....what is current TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT? I think still over 300%.

If not THE bottom, what kind of bottom? DID THE SPX PE's OR DIV yields reach levels seen at prior MAJOR CYCLE BOTTOMS? NO

ALL BOTTOMS GET TESTED? usually....dont ya think this one will? 2nd MOUSE here if enterring with more gusto will be unltimate winner.

NO QUESTION...my thinking was failed and masked by my own BIZ experience of despair....had I had only game face on.....SNDK at $5 HNI at $7 DOW and friends under $10 were NO BRAINER TRADES. UYG near $1 a no brainer. There is BIG talk of recovery...I ask you why then UYG under April highs, but supported by 50 EMA and do I see another wedge?

Friday, May 01, 2009

COMPARE MARCH 2009 RALLY WITH 911 RALLY


Notice how 911 rally after capturing 200 EMA was then stopped when approaching it from under right before it began steep decline into 2002 lows, we also had a VIX that fell to below 20!
*click to enlarge
D

BEAR MARKET RALLIES

Weekend Commentary

YOU SHOULD keep in mind that recovery rallies that occur during extended bear markets are often very impressive. If the rallies were just run of the mill they would not do their job. These rallies will last just long enough to lure in the most that think the worst is over and they let their guard down.

And when these rallies fizzle, and those that jumped back in deny their is trouble brewing in the air, that's when the PRIMARY BEAR TREND reasserts itself with a vengence.

Folks this is a nasty Bear MArket, values will most likely be driven down to never before seen values, with yields near 6%, and SPX 500 PE ratios in single digits......I am sorry to say I do not think we have gotten to the end, and I know the yields and PE's have not met their goals.

The avg person is not trading these markets, the avg person may be reading my blog along with some seasoned traders, but the avg person has been holding this whole time.

The feverish demand for stocks usually met at bear bottoms has been mostly absent here. I think the rally from MArch is most like the one after the 911 panic subsided. I mean WHAT could be worse than the terrorism and pain we felt after being attacked?

I dont remember, but I do know that rally ended and new LOWER prices came after in OCT 2002. And then again in 2003 we came close to the lows, TESTED and didnt look back.

IMHO at LEAST the lows get tested my friends....at the least.

Our problems are deep and wide. Long TERM int rates manipulated lower, even with threat the FED buys its own Bonds...have only risen since....10 yr back above 3.10 % which means mortgage rates will rise......not what was intended....but we KEEP BORROWING TRILLIONS.......there is no spending control iN GOV....

You ask yourself.....or anyone....how ya doing...is it getting better....are the programs taking hold...fixing the problems?

This is the WORST economy in my 50 yr lifetime.....so I wont presume to know how it ends, or improves....I can say I dont see it yet.....and its PRESERVATION MODE for me

D

ZERO HEDGE

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/shooting-shoots.html always a good read

Watch the wedge develop, catching shorts TOO short and way oversold market at MArch lows ignited this. End of mark to market and abuse of the data have fed this, as has the playa's and suspect that important stimulus money is not being loaned but gambled.

D

CHINA WITH FIB