AT 69.5 (blues line total) it is a rather WEAK number, hardly cause for joy! You can see in a TYPICAL recovery the reading should be 90 or above......
CPI rose because OIL rose, final sales weak.
D
Friday, August 13, 2010
TRIM TABS "FED INTERVENTIONS ARE POINTLESS"
Read it on zerohedge.com
Expect market to try and rally from uber selloff 97% down volume day....what market does will not change life on the street
D
Expect market to try and rally from uber selloff 97% down volume day....what market does will not change life on the street
D
Thursday, August 12, 2010
MARTIN ARMSTRONG
Interesting case, interesting writings
Not much of a snap back today from 97% downer.....see lower prices coming, if not now after some failed rally.
D
Not much of a snap back today from 97% downer.....see lower prices coming, if not now after some failed rally.
D
WHAT KIND OF WORLD DO WE LIVE IN?
*Update alert....4 week moving average of claims VAULTS 14,000 to 472,000. weekly claims surprises to upside at 484,000.....export prices continue to FALL.
I am sorry to say a DEFLATIONARY one. That is obvious isn't it? So current FED strategy will not do any more than the previous FED strategy, and we still have the debts and mistakes of OTHERS foisted over to US without much to show for it.
What I think many don't understand is it IS different this time, we are not suffering from the classic Recessionary issues, but from those of a credit bubble cycle.....maybe last seen in 1930.
If you look closely to the data coming out, it really hasn't improved all that much from the period ending in early 2009, yet stocks are up 75% or so......which asset can now appreciate to support expanding consumer spending? Then how much more can the Gov be expected to do to stimulate with funds it doesn't have? This is not just a US phenom and I thnk is why the US $ may not be ripe for extinction just yet, will the Euro replace it? I don't think so just yet.
The race for yield has been on and AGAIN Bonds are outpacing most others in gains, but the yields are getting rather skimpy with the 10 yr dipping to 2.7% ......what seems like a very crowded trade just keeps getting more crowded....some say 1.5% yield within next year is possible....before that bull mkt ends.
SOme also reccomend looking at QUALITY CORPORATE BONDS as an option (consult your financial advisor).
In an up and down market that has gone nowhere in 10 years, allocation is key IMHO, NOT LTBH.......and we could be in for 10 years of corrective activity AFTER the bubble burst around 2007.....or longer
How much can the shorts be counted on at these levels to cover and support market? more likely these areas may attract more of their kind.
With little improvement in housing and employment, this close to the coming xmas season.....what outlook can retailers possibly have?
As many EXPERTS call this a recovery, NBER has not declared Recession over.....
You understand what can drive an economy, it's not the public sector....its the private sector. TOO MUCH IS IN LIMBO, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY....about costs and taxes.
Investment in future business does not like uncertainty.
We must stop trying to create jobs with GOV spending and hiring and resuscitate small business.
Freddie and Fannie doing so good....they need another $2B from US.
The "recovery" has been unlike others in the past by this time, and it seems in almost any measure to be descelerating, and IMHO the chance corporate profits can continue to surprise upward are getting slimmer and slimmer.
Yesterday was another in a series of 90% down volume days, puncuated by some 90% upside days, but there have been more downside volume days and in a new bull mkt that seems rather odd....
D
I am sorry to say a DEFLATIONARY one. That is obvious isn't it? So current FED strategy will not do any more than the previous FED strategy, and we still have the debts and mistakes of OTHERS foisted over to US without much to show for it.
What I think many don't understand is it IS different this time, we are not suffering from the classic Recessionary issues, but from those of a credit bubble cycle.....maybe last seen in 1930.
If you look closely to the data coming out, it really hasn't improved all that much from the period ending in early 2009, yet stocks are up 75% or so......which asset can now appreciate to support expanding consumer spending? Then how much more can the Gov be expected to do to stimulate with funds it doesn't have? This is not just a US phenom and I thnk is why the US $ may not be ripe for extinction just yet, will the Euro replace it? I don't think so just yet.
The race for yield has been on and AGAIN Bonds are outpacing most others in gains, but the yields are getting rather skimpy with the 10 yr dipping to 2.7% ......what seems like a very crowded trade just keeps getting more crowded....some say 1.5% yield within next year is possible....before that bull mkt ends.
SOme also reccomend looking at QUALITY CORPORATE BONDS as an option (consult your financial advisor).
In an up and down market that has gone nowhere in 10 years, allocation is key IMHO, NOT LTBH.......and we could be in for 10 years of corrective activity AFTER the bubble burst around 2007.....or longer
How much can the shorts be counted on at these levels to cover and support market? more likely these areas may attract more of their kind.
With little improvement in housing and employment, this close to the coming xmas season.....what outlook can retailers possibly have?
As many EXPERTS call this a recovery, NBER has not declared Recession over.....
You understand what can drive an economy, it's not the public sector....its the private sector. TOO MUCH IS IN LIMBO, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY....about costs and taxes.
Investment in future business does not like uncertainty.
We must stop trying to create jobs with GOV spending and hiring and resuscitate small business.
Freddie and Fannie doing so good....they need another $2B from US.
The "recovery" has been unlike others in the past by this time, and it seems in almost any measure to be descelerating, and IMHO the chance corporate profits can continue to surprise upward are getting slimmer and slimmer.
Yesterday was another in a series of 90% down volume days, puncuated by some 90% upside days, but there have been more downside volume days and in a new bull mkt that seems rather odd....
D
NO MIXED MESSAGE HERE
"Declines in new default notices, which were down on a year-over-year basis for the sixth straight month in July," he said, "have been offset by near-record levels of bank repossessions, which increased on a year-over-year basis for the eighth straight month."
A near record number of people lost their homes to mortgage payment problems in July. Lender repossessions amounted to 92,858 homes, the second highest monthly total ever behind the 93,777 recorded this May."
A near record number of people lost their homes to mortgage payment problems in July. Lender repossessions amounted to 92,858 homes, the second highest monthly total ever behind the 93,777 recorded this May."
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
UGLY DOWNER
Most likely another in ednless stream of 90% days, majority have been DOWN volume days....does that sound like bull mkt action?
1088 is being called out here and there by this dude or that one as big deal....so we got that low with a BIG RED BAR.
I think themin rally trend from June is broken, as I like to use trendlines and that one was broken as drawn. SPX has given back its 200 and now challanges the 50 again.
Under we could challenge 1056 then 1040 area, IMHO if 1040 gives a heave ho.....more evidence of bear lurking.
VIX rose but doesn't shout panic. But enough buying has been put down with putrid volume to be very suspect and might not offer much support on the down low.
Of course you can parse through all the stocks and find some that fare much better than others.....but if a double dip vision seems more and more likely......who is left to buy and put a bid on?
Lowest ever recorded bid on the 2 yr note.....what a mess!
Duratek....keeping it real and not falling asleep
EVERY PICTURE TELLS A STORY, DONT IT
Current administration and FED
GRAVITY of our situation (black hole)
GRAVITY of our situation (black hole)D
WHO CARES ABOUT FED ACTION?
Record low mortgage rates do little for demand- Reuters
...so lower them some bleepin more....buy them, print them and buy them yourselves...tell me how YOU are GURU of the great depression.....tell me how fing clueless you are ..BEN
Tell me how the stock market shows a V shaped recovery that never came... tell me why a 2.69%!! 10 year yield is bullish.... for crying out loud.....lost generation #2 coming up
D
...so lower them some bleepin more....buy them, print them and buy them yourselves...tell me how YOU are GURU of the great depression.....tell me how fing clueless you are ..BEN
Tell me how the stock market shows a V shaped recovery that never came... tell me why a 2.69%!! 10 year yield is bullish.... for crying out loud.....lost generation #2 coming up
D
RALLY TIME
IN the US $ and Bonds!
FED comes clean like a pick getting hosed down in a mud pen.
Yields signal severe economic contraction. Small BUsiness does not see blue skies (NFIB SURVEY)
WHY rag on the US $ when all fiat currencies are getting shredded? then there's the YEN. Slowing in China? can't they keep making stuff even as economies contract, consumer spending slows?
RECORD GOV and FED intervention, almost 3 years after crisis began in 2007......do you see the results? now they say...oooops, we dont see expansion....credit still contracting....but DO NOT WORRY WE GOT YOUR BACK!
I'm not worried at all.....
Futures ugly red (lets see if buyers step in late) NIKK down 3% overnight.....their 20 yr chart says it all folks....get used to it.
D
FED comes clean like a pick getting hosed down in a mud pen.
Yields signal severe economic contraction. Small BUsiness does not see blue skies (NFIB SURVEY)
WHY rag on the US $ when all fiat currencies are getting shredded? then there's the YEN. Slowing in China? can't they keep making stuff even as economies contract, consumer spending slows?
RECORD GOV and FED intervention, almost 3 years after crisis began in 2007......do you see the results? now they say...oooops, we dont see expansion....credit still contracting....but DO NOT WORRY WE GOT YOUR BACK!
I'm not worried at all.....
Futures ugly red (lets see if buyers step in late) NIKK down 3% overnight.....their 20 yr chart says it all folks....get used to it.
D
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
EXPLANATION "LIMITED HANGOUT"
FROM WICKPEDIA SITE MUST READ (puts FED disclosure today and Obama's and others statements on HEALTH of economy into perspective)
"A limited hangout is a public relations or propaganda technique that involves the release of previously hidden information in order to prevent a greater exposure of more important details. It takes the form of deception, misdirection, or coverup often associated with intelligence agencies involving a release or "mea culpa" type of confession of only part of a set of previously hidden sensitive information, that establishes credibility for the one releasing the information who by the very act of confession appears to be "coming clean" and acting with integrity; but in actuality, by withholding key facts, is protecting a deeper operation and those who could be exposed if the whole truth came out. In effect, if an array of offenses or misdeeds is suspected, this confession admits to a lesser offense while covering up the greater ones."
And should show you, cannot believe a WORD any gov office tells you.....or the DATA they spew out from BLS or BS or FU university....
ALL YOU NEED TO SEE link here
thanks to a friend for heads up
D
"A limited hangout is a public relations or propaganda technique that involves the release of previously hidden information in order to prevent a greater exposure of more important details. It takes the form of deception, misdirection, or coverup often associated with intelligence agencies involving a release or "mea culpa" type of confession of only part of a set of previously hidden sensitive information, that establishes credibility for the one releasing the information who by the very act of confession appears to be "coming clean" and acting with integrity; but in actuality, by withholding key facts, is protecting a deeper operation and those who could be exposed if the whole truth came out. In effect, if an array of offenses or misdeeds is suspected, this confession admits to a lesser offense while covering up the greater ones."
And should show you, cannot believe a WORD any gov office tells you.....or the DATA they spew out from BLS or BS or FU university....
ALL YOU NEED TO SEE link here
thanks to a friend for heads up
D
ALERT: FED RATE DECISION AND COMMENTS
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said it would begin funneling proceeds from its maturing mortgage bonds into longer-term government debt in an effort to support a sputtering economic recovery.
Just 2 months ago there was talk of how they would begin taking away stim and begin normalizing positions......
Obama "economy is strengthening minute by minute"
Decide if good or bad, more FED medicine....when some $2TRILLION etc etc didn't do job....they got our back, now take knife out...
Market will go thru several headfakes, but admitting how sour things are, when telling us constatly how they are improving....no CRED IMHO
D
Just 2 months ago there was talk of how they would begin taking away stim and begin normalizing positions......
Obama "economy is strengthening minute by minute"
Decide if good or bad, more FED medicine....when some $2TRILLION etc etc didn't do job....they got our back, now take knife out...
Market will go thru several headfakes, but admitting how sour things are, when telling us constatly how they are improving....no CRED IMHO
D
OWN 2 FEET?
BALTO AREA HOME SALES
Baltimore-area home sales fall in July
Fewer are buying in the absence of the homebuyer tax credit
Baltimore-area home sales fall in July
Fewer are buying in the absence of the homebuyer tax credit
ZEROS
Chinese market was off almost 3% overnight, seems like there is a slowing in their economy...what a surprise.
But don't worry here, FED meeting and rate decision today, and seeing as how everything the FED has already done has worked so well, surely stock bulls will be encouraged if they say they will do more....some suggest they just "add some ZEROS to bank reserves"
Keep in mind, now everyone is sure the $ is going to 0, and talk of deflation is commonplace......this sets up a contrarian rally in both( $ and Yields)
SO many taxes and costs, make it prohibitive for employers to ADD new employees.
Descelerating economy 100% addicted to gov stimulus, businesses not hiring, housing not reviving even in face of record low interest rates, possibility of tax increases, distinct change in Consumer behavior with savings rates rising, still have stock outflows and bond inflows (who is buying stocks and contributing to rally?)......we have a secular theme, we have STRUCTURAL problems that are NOT being dealt with.....with structural solutions....and the band played on.
*($ rallied overnight, oil fell back below $80)
D
But don't worry here, FED meeting and rate decision today, and seeing as how everything the FED has already done has worked so well, surely stock bulls will be encouraged if they say they will do more....some suggest they just "add some ZEROS to bank reserves"
Keep in mind, now everyone is sure the $ is going to 0, and talk of deflation is commonplace......this sets up a contrarian rally in both( $ and Yields)
SO many taxes and costs, make it prohibitive for employers to ADD new employees.
Descelerating economy 100% addicted to gov stimulus, businesses not hiring, housing not reviving even in face of record low interest rates, possibility of tax increases, distinct change in Consumer behavior with savings rates rising, still have stock outflows and bond inflows (who is buying stocks and contributing to rally?)......we have a secular theme, we have STRUCTURAL problems that are NOT being dealt with.....with structural solutions....and the band played on.
*($ rallied overnight, oil fell back below $80)
D
Monday, August 09, 2010
"DANGEROUSLY CLOSE"
Martenson thinks we’re “dangerously close” to entering a stage of ‘stagflation’ that crippled the economy and market in the 1970s. “That really squeezes the workers even harder than any other condition you can experience," he says, because wages are stagnant while the price of goods and services rises.
With both fiscal and monetary stimulus winding down, Martenson is convinced a double-dip recession is imminent, if not already under way: "The early data is saying, 'weakness still is here' and we’re going to have to live with this for a while,” he says.
Not everyone thinks we're good as gold.
D
With both fiscal and monetary stimulus winding down, Martenson is convinced a double-dip recession is imminent, if not already under way: "The early data is saying, 'weakness still is here' and we’re going to have to live with this for a while,” he says.
Not everyone thinks we're good as gold.
D
DRAMA
Tuesday is the FOMC interest rate decision day at 2:15 PM, usually markets are quiet ahead of that data. Futures point to a green open, I don't expect a lot of volume or volatility....markets sit on ST overbought condition.
Markets will try to confound as many as possible before taking them out. Diversified portfolios still the strategy of most financial advisors.
Lowest mortgage rates in history, many may try to refi...IF they have HOME EQUITY......is it like the man in the desert who thinks he sees a pool of water....but always just out of reach...
WHile we could argue for hours whether we are in a cyclical bull market or not, my argument remains were are in SECULAR BEAR MARKET maybe only half way through.
D
Markets will try to confound as many as possible before taking them out. Diversified portfolios still the strategy of most financial advisors.
Lowest mortgage rates in history, many may try to refi...IF they have HOME EQUITY......is it like the man in the desert who thinks he sees a pool of water....but always just out of reach...
WHile we could argue for hours whether we are in a cyclical bull market or not, my argument remains were are in SECULAR BEAR MARKET maybe only half way through.
D
Saturday, August 07, 2010
THE CONNECTABLES
Yes the dawn rises, the already sataurated housing market which hasn't responded to all the gimmicks and stimulus nor record low rates. There is the "SHADOW INVENTORY" the banks hold off the market like the Russians keeping diamonds in underground vaults to suppress supply and keep prices high....as Debeers raises their advertising budget....show her you LOVE HER.
And the demographics of baby boomers now just coming onto the scene, and many want to DOWNSIZE, just around the time prices have crashed and that NEW inventory will be met with a generational buyers market.....deflation of housing may be here for awhile...and our problems which are not being dealt with by those in power.....will not go away.
But the bankers are connected, you are not. There are so many to thank for FOISTING THEIR debts and BAD BETS on the PUBLIC.....I don't have enough space....I DO know not one single person has been brought to justice.....do you ever wonder why the major banks and finacials didn't have their top guys replaced?....an honest man put in place would uncover TOO MUCH...and they don't want you to know....too much
D
And the demographics of baby boomers now just coming onto the scene, and many want to DOWNSIZE, just around the time prices have crashed and that NEW inventory will be met with a generational buyers market.....deflation of housing may be here for awhile...and our problems which are not being dealt with by those in power.....will not go away.
But the bankers are connected, you are not. There are so many to thank for FOISTING THEIR debts and BAD BETS on the PUBLIC.....I don't have enough space....I DO know not one single person has been brought to justice.....do you ever wonder why the major banks and finacials didn't have their top guys replaced?....an honest man put in place would uncover TOO MUCH...and they don't want you to know....too much
D
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